So let me get this straight... We have some very good footage of the event in Konstantinovka, and a lot can be seen and heard in it.
- 1. The munition is a missile/rocket with its motor still running, as it can be loudly heard approaching prior to the strike.
- 2. People on the street can be seen reacting to the sound, and they look towards it seconds before it hits.
- 2.1 Rules out a glide bomb (a glide bomb doesn't make any sound).
2.2 Rules out an MLRS rocket or a ballistic missile (rocket artillery only burns for a few seconds when launched, a ballistic missile for a bit longer as it gains altitude, it flies silently, ballistically the rest of the way to the target).
3. These people are looking to the northwest (as can be determined by geolocating the street).
3.1 Ergo, it came from Ukrainian-held territory to the north-west, in the direction of Kramatorsk.
4. It shows up in two frames as a reflection in two different car roofs, and it is not large, it has a thin profile and no big wings or anything.
4.1 As with the sound, these visual characteristics also rule out a glide bomb (a glide bomb is fat and has wings).
4.2 The visual characteristics also rule out a cruise missile (a CM is huge and has big conspicuous wings).
5. People in the area northwest of Konstantinovka were quoted as having observed Ukrainian missile launches by Ukrainian strike aircraft taking place minutes before this strike.
6. No Russian strikes were reported at the time, there was no air raid alert or anything.
And the explosion is far too small for a cruise missile, ballistic missile or glide bomb. So that fact alone rules out those three as well.
Ergo: adding 1+1 together, it is established beyond reasonable doubt that it was a Ukrainian missile, most likely an AGM-88 HARM that was launched in the air by a Ukrainian MiG-29 to the northeast of Konstantinovka, missed its intended target (some Russian radio emitter) and accidentally struck civilians. This exact thing has occured on multiple occasions before, at least one of which even got acknowledged by western media (yes, as crazy as that sounds), eg:
The New York Times: an air-launched AGM-88B missile, built to destroy enemy radars, apparently missed its target and hit an apartment building in Kramatorsk in September.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/24/world/europe/ukraine-american-missile.html
There is a slight possibility that it was a Ukrainian air defense missile (S-300 or what have you) that went awry as well, but as no Russian aerial activity had been reported, while Ukrainian ditto had, it is more likely to have been associated with the latter (ie an air-launched HARM).
A Russian strike can be ruled out based on the direction of travel and the visual and aural characteristics of the weapon:
- 1. The only way a Russian missile with its motor still running could have come from the northwest would have been a cruise missile fired from the Belgorod, Kursk or Bryansk regions (or Belarus).
- 1.1 This can be ruled out based on the shape of the missile.
1.2 This can also be ruled out by the fact that no CM strike was ongoing (NATO surveillance is very thorough and they instantly alert Ukraine, which then immediately issues regional alerts).
1.3 ...And nobody reported hearing or seeing it at any time during the 100s of kilometers of Ukrainian-held territory it would have to have flown over, subsonically at low altitude.
This is not rocket science (yeah, yeah), just 1+1.
Yet, literally
all western media is uncritically parroting Zelenskys remarks of "Russian barbarianism" and what not. Zero reflection, zero research.
It is absolutely astonishing to observe. It is not the first time, though, as many of you know. The New York Times piece above that acknowledges a Ukrainian cock-up is one of the very few times it's been acknowledged by western media. But there are dozens of examples of similarly
100% verifiable Ukrainian strikes (whether accidental or malicious, sometimes you wonder) having taken place over the course of the conflict, and most of them are regularly brought up to this day as clear-cut examples of absolutely intentional "Russian barbarism".
In fact, the very first one, on February 27th if I recall correctly (apartment building in Kiev struck by a Ukrainian Buk/Kub SAM) became like the poster child of Russia's supposed evil. It is still referred to as a Russian cruise missile, and a very intentional strike, even though the same 1+1 can be applied to that case:
- 1. In the impact footage, it is an unwinged and supersonic missile coming from a western direction.
- 1.1 A cruise missile is winged and subsonic, and a Russian missile of any kind would have come from the opposite direction.
2. The missile in the impact footage is still burning solid rocket fuel, leaving a thick, white exhaust plume behind it.
2.1 A cruise missile is powered by a small, non-afterburning turbine once in level flight, it runs on liquid jet fuel and does not leave a thick white exhaust plume behind it.
2.2 This also rules out other contenders, such as Russian MLRS or a ballistic missile (inconsistent with the trajectory anyway, but also inconsistent with the plume, as they fly unpowered to the target).
3. A perfectly matching Kub/Buk launch was filmed from an apartment on Akademika Vilyamsa street, showing the missile's entire flight path, thick white plume and all, all the way from west of Zhulyany, going north, making a wide turn to the east, finally disappearing into the ground right where the aforementioned apartment building on Lobanovsky avenue is located.
Plus, the impact is also far too small for a cruise missile with a ~400kg high-explosive warhead (eg Kh-101). It is perfectly consistent with the ~50kg fragmentation warhead of a mid-sized air defense missile (eg 3M9 Kub).
Sigh. Then on top of that you have a bunch of eg NASAMS (AIM-120) and S-300 (5V55) fully verified by literally
everyone (
including the west) as having been launched by Ukraine only to land where they weren't supposed to... Well, everyone
except Ukraine/Kiev (for instance the ones in Poland).
I don't even think Kiev has taken responsibility for the old Tupolev drone that they struck Zagreb, Croatia with. It's all Russians, even when it is so dead obvious it is not. And in 99% of the cases, western media just goes along with the Kievan mumbo-jumbo, sometimes even refraining from relaying what western intelligence says (when they do say something, which admittedly is rare) and that is terrifying.
Orwellian is a popular and somewhat abused term these days, but it really is Orwellian. Media controls perceptions and opinions, and it is so easy to demonstrate that they employ lies (whether direct or by omission) to do so, and there is this culture of silence everywhere. Even otherwise firebrand investigative journalists are keeping mum on it.
It just blows my mind. I'm sure many of you will say "duuuuh?!" but it still amazes me every time it is so blatant. And much like the Syrian "rebels", Zelensky (and Poroshenko before him) take full advantage of this.
Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug on Thu Sep 07, 2023 7:16 am; edited 6 times in total
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