Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

Backman wrote:Evidence of partisan groups inside Ukraine murdering soldiers and mercs on leave from the front.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1700666973309325503?s=20

lol, what partisan groups?

Probably just engaging in criminality during their downtime.

Latest report and some analysis

-just looked at the statistics of my blog, and I was surprised that though interest in the war has dropped by half from last year, I have half a million views from about a hundred thousand visitors from all over the world, even from Russia

Considering it's written in Spanish and the censorship of Google search engine, I think I am doing a good effort. I will never be as famous as Boris Rozhin or get a medal, but I don't do it for fame or glory, just because I feel is my duty.





https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2023/09/10/situacion-analisis-militar-y-entrevista-a-kedmi-09-09-2023/

I suspect that this tank will now be headed for a museum.

Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
Tonight, kamikaze drones "Geran" destroyed a military arsenal in the Rakitnyansky district of the Kyiv region, NASA satellites recorded more than ten sources of fire in the territory of ammunition depots after 3 am.

Object coordinates: 49.623573, 30.657520

Local authorities confirm the arrival at an “infrastructure facility” in the Kyiv region, without specifying where and what arrived. Only the consequences of the blast wave in the form of damaged private houses are mentioned.



#source:
https://t.me/milinfolive/10

A funny thing : Alyosha is not the name of this particular tank, but a code call for any tank.
As the side hero of the whole situation was the recon guy who was commenting on the whole action, he was using this code name multiple times. Looks like it settled well into the overall propaganda spin.

By the way, if you have some free time, take a look at the whole action, again
"Alyosha tank" is a propaganda spin.
Ukro tanks were destroyed on minefield, some were hit by ATGMs, and there was even AGS and SPG9 fire involved in the event.
The sole clear hit the tank crew made, was against an already wrecked MRAP (?) standing on the right forward from the scene.
The entire Ukro squad was annihilated indeed but by combined arms.
Tank crew did a heroic job indeed, returning to the battlefield multiple times, but it was clearly not "rearming" as it took way too short of time. Maybe they needed to handle a loader malfunction or something, IDK
Anyway, a funny thing to watch, especially with a non censored comments from the recon guy who visited Putin, too. And was told to continue career as a sports commentator

A long but interesting analysis

Some or many won't agree with my assessment, but I do believe that is worth contemplating over it.

We are using the phrase "to the last Ukrainian", too often,( I wrote about it earlier) which we, to emphasize and make an argument stronger, always combine with their nonstop mobilization and, now, also, with mobilizing those who are unfit for military service. If it's followed by some video of the forceful recruiting, even better. For us.

However, we tend to forget one crucial thing. In Artemovsk, many of those who fought for AFU were territorial defense units, with little or no training. They were sent, along with better-trained and equipped troops to try to hold the city. As a logical conclusion of their participation, they were mostly wiped out to the last men, or rendered ineffective due to terrible losses sustained. No one contests that fact, because it's true, and well-known. Wagner did a good job.

But, you will remember that many are terdefense units. Right? Let's go forward. Only a few months later, AFU attacked with heavy force in Zaporozhye, and recently in Donetsk. They still hold Marinka, Avdeevka, and Ugledar, and slowly retreat in Kypiansk's direction.

Now, those attacking in Zaporozhye & Donetsk are Western and domestically trained troops, heavily armed, in significant amounts with Western weapons. Now, I don't want to reinvent the wheel, and claim something, but Artemovsk was delaying action, and paid dearly by an AFU. Ukraine's high command decided to buy time in the blood (tbh, they couldn't do it in another way) but sent those with lower combat value, to save troops for the main attack.

Now, after all this time, the main attack wasn't decisive nor lethal, as some feared. In Ua HQ don't sit idiots. They are trained in the same schools as Russian generals. If you believe in the opposite, you are wrong. They tried the form of blitzkrieg attack, which proved futile, probably under the influence of NATO Generals. However, they are still attacking. A logical question arises. Why are they attacking? Is it time to call it off?

Often the used answer is: 1) They can't do it, NATO doesn't allow it; 2) It's for the PR. I will offer answer no 3) which you may agree or disagree with. The offense is the best defense. While the grouping currently fighting is being spent, (at this point, already over 80.000 Kia/Wia/Mia), Ua is doing the same thing that the Artemovsk group did - meaning: forming, training, and equipping another main battle group, and at the same time creating, again, a secondary group which will consist of defense units.

The job of the latter will be to take and try to absorb the Russian counter-strike as much as possible without the need to sacrifice too much of the main strike group, in terms of the men and equipment. The idea is similar to ours, allow the enemy to attack, slow him down, wear him as much as possible and when the time is right, strike again with a newly created main group. Then repeat if needed.

You see, Ua complains about men, but maybe not because of what we are thinking of.

Recruitment centers were under pressure to fulfill quotas. Being corrupted, they let go of many. Kiev and bigger cities are full of military-capable men. The problem is in inefficiency of recruiters. All those fit will go to better training to create a new main group.

All those unfit, young, old, women (maybe), who are intended to contain the Russian attack will get minimal training. They don't need better, except knowing how to shoot, because they would be sitting in the trenches and fortifications, waiting for the Russian army to flush them out, but at the same time to wear themselves down in the process

Everything that we have seen so far, from the beginning of the SMO and onwards, led us to think that such development is not only possible but has already been used on several occasions. Such an approach is paid dearly in terms of human lives and it's not honorable, but that who fights with honor, obviously didn't wage war.

In fact, similar examples we can find in the old Soviet manuals and teachings, some directly from the battlefield of WW2 against Germans, where, some divisions of low quality were put first, to try to weaken the Germans, thus allowing more worthy Soviet troops to capitalize on weaken enemy. Both sides know that.

Regarding weapons lost, losses in hardware are big for UA, but they have plenty of. Keep in mind that weapons are flowing non-stop. The news that the USA is sending 190 MRAPS a few days ago passed almost unnoticed. There are many such cases. So, no, Ukraine will not run out of weapons anytime soon.

Personally, I believe that the path to victory in this conflict, chosen by Moscow, is to break the possibility of Ua waging war for generations to come. Degradation, exhaustion, will-breaking, and utter defeat, a kind of war of attrition, but on a much grander scale is the solution accepted. Similar also writes in Soviet strategic doctrine. That means that the war will not end anytime soon.

After that, it won't be any Ukraine anymore


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/62609

While I don't believe that is a good strategy as I posted in the Armenia thread, ultimately I'm not strategist and thus this method may indeed be the best suited. Russia does have the industrial advantage all the while is reorienting itself to further localization and diverting trade elsewhere while furthering importance of Russians as consumers.

That all said, it really boils down to how will Russian society take it? We already have some Benedict Arnold's around like Arkh who will gladly flee Russia or that Mi-8 pilot.

flamming_python wrote:
Probably just engaging in criminality during their downtime.

Oh no!
The drug dealers, human organ harvesters, child molesting creatures, and sports fanatics are killing each other for influence spheres?
How is that possible!?!
Outrageous!

sepheronx wrote:While I don't believe that is a good strategy as I posted in the Armenia thread, ultimately I'm not strategist and thus this method may indeed be the best suited.  Russia does have the industrial advantage all the while is reorienting itself to further localization and diverting trade elsewhere while furthering importance of Russians as consumers.

That all said, it really boils down to how will Russian society take it?  We already have some Benedict Arnold's around like Arkh who will gladly flee Russia or that Mi-8 pilot.

Well you can only rate a strategy relative to other options. A reasonable adult peace with NATO is not possible. Even today with Ukraine in ruins they talk about NATO membership. So perhaps the best option for Russia is to turn Ukraine into a basket case country, leave the conflict in place and keep hitting any pockets of strength with drones until the country depopulates below any viability. So perhaps they will make this a brutal winter to force the population to leave for the West.

lol, what partisan groups?

Russian Kherson they call it. Either that or it is just some good Russian propaganda for a change

ATACMS are being delivered now and Russia just does nothing. Generals will be killed. A whole new round of propaganda stories that will intoxicate western retards for the next 6 months. 230 kilogram warheads. JFC. 

U.S. will now send in a new wonder-weapon, the ATAMCS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometer (190 miles). They come in several variants but the U.S. army will only be willing to hand over its older ones and only a few. The missiles are GPS guided which is unlikely to work well as Russia has sufficient electronic warfare assets that will disturb those signals. Some of these missiles will just divert from their target. Some will be shot down by air defenses. Some will come through. The 230 kilogram warhead can create quite a mess if it hits a large headquarter.

Backman wrote:

lol, what partisan groups?

Russian Kherson they call it. Either that or it is just some good Russian propaganda for a change

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1700667067395879357?s=20

And where the **** were they from 2014-2022?

They were contributing troops to the Ukrainian junta army shelling the Donbass, that's where. Anyone with balls I mean. There may well have been people sympathetic to Russia, but none of them did anything then, so why would they find the courage now?

Putin seems to think that if Russia just allows these weapons in and defeates them , that it is somehow a fair fight that Russia won. And somehow this will carry weight in negotiations in the future. Except this is all nonsense. Because the US has the honor and maturity of a 14 year narcissist. Putin expects them to realize the futility of what they are doing. But they never will.

The United States announced Ukraine's readiness for negotiations with Russia, 09.10.2023.

US Secretary of State Blinken: Ukraine is ready for negotiations with Russia.

Ukraine is ready for negotiations with Russia, but the conditions and future borders will depend on the opinion of Kyiv, US Secretary of State Blinken said. Russia ruled out the withdrawal of troops to the 1991 borders and called for recognizing “realities on the ground”.

Kiev is ready for negotiations with Moscow and will begin them if Russian President Vladimir Putin is ready for dialogue, but so far there are no signs that he is “showing any interest in constructive diplomacy,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on ABC .

Blinken added that the terms and future borders would depend on Ukraine's views. At the same time, at present, according to him, peace negotiations are unattainable, since “it takes two to tango.” “Everyone wants this war to end,” he stressed.

The Secretary of State also did not agree with criticism of the final declaration adopted at the G20 summit.

Blinken pointed out that everyone present at the summit spoke for the integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, and therefore the statement was strong. In addition, he continued, the participating “leader after leader” spoke about the negative impact of the conflict on the world. “In the hall, at the table, it was absolutely clear that countries are feeling the consequences and want Russian aggression to stop,” the secretary of state concluded.

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/09/2023/64fe0bea9a794781630b5dcc

Backman wrote:ATACMS are being delivered now and Russia just does nothing.

Do you have a link confirming this?

There is going to be a flurry of missile attacks on Russian assets. Most likely in the Black sea and Crimea. This is why they are shilling about negotiations now. They really think they can attack Russia into negotiations. Then a year from now, it will be Tomohawks I guess.

A sine qua non condition for Russia now agreeing to negotiations on 404 should be the complete NATO wipe-out.

Soon we will face a heavily armed Russian army of 1.5 mln.
That requires thousands of weapons, making a cost factor crucial.

Also the need for a standing reserve with modern equipment instead of reservists that need re-training for months and get some old stuff like T-62s.

NASA satellites recorded more than ten sources of fire in the territory of ammunition depots after 3 am.

Just guards smoking. 

You see, Ua complains about men, but maybe not because of what we are thinking of.

No, it´s exactly what real experts are thinking. They are running out of soldiers.

Regarding weapons lost, losses in hardware are big for UA, but they have plenty of. 

Which color has the sky that dude is living on? 

190 MRAPS a few days ago passed almost unnoticed.

Because some lightly armored trucks, armed with a MG, can´t replace a tank with a 125mm gun.

That means that the war will not end anytime soon.

Someone should tell him that the German Army in May 1945 had more armed soldiers than the Ukro army has today. Didn´t help much.

the ATAMCS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometer

Just a ballistic missile.

JohninMK wrote:

Backman wrote:ATACMS are being delivered now and Russia just does nothing.

Do you have a link confirming this?

So that's a no then. The supply of ATACMS would be an important step. You shouldn't toss a comment like that around lightly.

Especially as its total crap as per

Sprinter
@Sprinter99800
.
8h
The US was not ready to announce the transfer of ATACMS to Ukraine

The United States is not yet ready to announce the transfer of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, but does not rule out this in the future. This was stated by Deputy White House National Security Advisor Jonathan Feiner.

Finer added that Washington intends to continue to provide military assistance to Kyiv.

So perhaps not a HARM after all.

Sprinter
@Sprinter99800
·
12h
Evidence has emerged of the use of the Ukrainian HIMARS MLRS in Konstantinovka in the form of characteristic holes

@JohninMK. It seems there is conflicting reports about them 

Backman wrote:@JohninMK. It seems there is conflicting reports about them 

I would rate the Deputy White House National Security Advisor as a higher quality source than a social media 'Journalist' based in his house in north London.

Time will tell.

Sorry to say so, but Mercouris is utterly wrong when he states that the Yanqui ATACMS missiles will be aimed at the Kerch bridge. They'll be ultimately and cowardly aimed at targets among the Russian civilian population, as they've always have done so.
The answer to this is the deployment of Iskander missiles in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela!

Backman wrote:ATACMS are being delivered now and Russia just does nothing. Generals will be killed. A whole new round of propaganda stories that will intoxicate western retards for the next 6 months. 230 kilogram warheads. JFC. 

U.S. will now send in a new wonder-weapon, the ATAMCS missiles with a range of up to 300 kilometer (190 miles). They come in several variants but the U.S. army will only be willing to hand over its older ones and only a few. The missiles are GPS guided which is unlikely to work well as Russia has sufficient electronic warfare assets that will disturb those signals. Some of these missiles will just divert from their target. Some will be shot down by air defenses. Some will come through. The 230 kilogram warhead can create quite a mess if it hits a large headquarter.

Doesn't storm shadow have a longer range anyway?

flamming_python wrote:

And where the **** were they from 2014-2022?

They were contributing troops to the Ukrainian junta army shelling the Donbass, that's where. Anyone with balls I mean. There may well have been people sympathetic to Russia, but none of them did anything then, so why would they find the courage now?

i'm pretty sure there were partisan attacks in Zaporozhye oblast circa 2014/15 targeting rail and bridges in the region, maybe they got fed up waiting for the cavalry to come

on another note Ukraine is demanding a tribunal to convict, Vladimir Putin, Sergey Lavarov Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and others, the first 3 names are to receive immunity according to the west which is enraging Ukraine, what needs to be pointed out to these fools, they are not living in the real world, the West & Ukraine ... if anyone should be in the dock , it should be Biden, O'Bampot, Merkel, Hollande, Macron, Scholtz, Nuland, Numerous Ukrainian Politicians, Boris Johnson and several other UK leaders

https://www.rt.com/russia/582719-west-deadlocked-russia-ukraine-tribunal/