Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

Otherwise this game of cat and mouse will eventually lead to more losses.

Have to agree... Zelensky wont make any sense till he realises he could lose it all... and I think the population are the same... they wont think the Russians actually are coming to them... they will think they will be happy now they have most of the territory they wanted so they will stop and sue for peace.

Cutting Kiev from the Black Sea would also offer the chance to create a land corridor to regions of Moldova, and of course if Russia gains territory on the Danube then river traffic to Serbia becomes an option that would really open up the place and stop the isolation of Serbia.

Russia currently does not have the strength for such an offensive.

The army of their enemy is in tatters and has no reserves... they have used them all for this big push.

Russian forces can bypass populated areas and just cut Odessa off and give them an ultimatum to prevent bloodshed.

They will already be mostly stripped of their fighting men and being cut off would mean they wouldn't be able to hold out for very long and there wont be a cavalry coming to save them any time soon.

Attacks all along the line would be too much for Kievs forces to handle and they would fold in a lot of places.

Russia's tactic is constant defense, bleeding Ukraine and counting on Kiev to sit down for talks.

They are careful to minimise their own casualties, but don't take that for not wishing to end this on their terms.

They can change tactics any time they like... they don't have foreign countries to please or timescales to follow.

They might not do anything till winter... the point is that Kiev wont have time to prepare... they will barely have enough time to fill gaps in their lines from all the troops they lost.

So they faked the destruction of the launcher with satellite images showing burned grass in September while trying to make it seem the launcher was still there in September by using an august timeframe taken satellite photo?

Those vehicles are mobile... to show images weeks apart and stating that a vehicle that appears to be missing has been destroyed is just a bad joke.

https://www.rt.com/news/582964-poland-ukraine-nato-duda/

Ukraine joining NATO now is out of the question – Polish president

Due to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, NATO would have to fight Russia if it accepts Kiev in the midst of a conflict, Andrzej Duda says.

The Polish president declined to predict when exactly Kiev will be able to go through this “door,” but promised that Warsaw will support its neighbor on the path to NATO membership “with all our strength.”

They are dangling the carrot so Ukraine will fight to the last men.

Is Odessa not getting hit hard enough?

First , for all intents and purposes NATO IS fighting Russia . And Ukraine is NATO proxy and part of it . However as a society , Russia has to understand this and respond accordingly . It is either an SMO or a war threatening the existence of Russia . It can not be both . The first , I understand , was a directive to fight the Nazi elements , and not the brotherly Ukrainian people . To disarm the extremists , and let everybody else live in peace . Well so far , the nationalistic feelings , inflamed by fighting , are allowing the extremists an ideal environment to thrive . This together with NATO involvement , does not allow a surgical military operation .

Second , this nationalistic feelings and of being " invaded " , means Ukraine can throw meat into the grinder and the fact that Russia is liberating the LDPR , and not fighting against an " invader , " means an inability to throw meat into the grinder . So this gives rise to a short term stalemate . The advantage in organisation and Arms by Russia , is offset by human wave assaults by Ukraine . Now this is a very precarious balance , and likely will be upset by increase or decrease in relative force changes of either side .

Third this imbalance , leading to fluidity in frontlines , will most likely not be decisive , since there exist multiple outside forces , exerting an influence . This means that the entire territory of what used to be Ukraine , will be subject to many advances and retreats by both armies . This will lead to the complete destruction of all the civilian infrastructure and depopulation , but it will not end the war . Since the Ukrainian Army , will become ( has become ) completely dependent on NATO for it's survival and fighting capability , and their non-reliance on the local economy or population or political support . And the LDPR forces , by necessity will depend largely on Russia . A fluid and multi-factorial complex situation .

Fourth , NATO has brazenly supported it's proxy to attack Russian soil ( including new Russia ) , but Russia has not supported the LDPR forces to attack NATO territory . The LDPR forces have not attacked NATO Ships in the Med , or NATO Airfield in Poland , or Town in Europe . This lack of symmetry , has emboldened NATO . Given them at least a psychological advantage .

Fifth , the idea that Ukraine will run out of meat , may be valid and allow advances by Russia . If Russia can keep up with it's war production . But as I said , it will not allow an end to the war . NATO will not allow it , and all they have to do , is hire a small mercenary Army , with longer range missiles and target Russian cities , till infinity . And they will do this , if profitable , and without consequence for them . Unless , they are targeted .

Some people need to get their heads examined and phones taken off them

scott please be right this time.

thegopnik wrote:

Is Odessa not getting hit hard enough?

What are you complaining about gopnik?

Why do you think that intense Russian attacks will equate to lesser Ukrainian attacks?
Or that the two things have any connection to one another at all?
Russia has its objectives in Odessa and the Ukraine has its objectives in the Crimea. That's all.

The Ukraine has mobile launchers and likely aircraft that can rebase from Romania right onto whatever makeshift Ukrainian airbase right before taking off for a sortee against targets in the Crimea.

From the troll accounts info war here it appears that going after Russian 'power projection' capabilities is the name of the game now. By which is meant the Russian Black Sea fleet. But if it was so easy to target then NATO would already have done it. And this is a noticeable climb-down from their more grandoise objectives at the start of the war, or indeed with the recent offensive.

flamming_python wrote:

thegopnik wrote:

Is Odessa not getting hit hard enough?

The Ukraine has mobile launchers and likely aircraft that can rebase from Romania right onto whatever makeshift Ukrainian aircraft right before taking off for a sortee against targets in the Crimea.

In other words F-16s can be housed into any NATO country to attack Russia and they still won't do anything if sukhois are hosted in romania.

thegopnik wrote:In other words F-16s can be housed into any NATO country to attack Russia and they still won't do anything if sukhois are hosted in romania.

I don't know, I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised - as indeed Russia won't do anything and can't do anything until the aircraft have rebased to the Ukraine. So why wouldn't NATO try such a trick.

Take it in stride and cut it with your aura of doomerism that I can sense even behind the monitor.

F-16 can lift of from Romania, probably with NATO pilots too, the fly into Ukraine, release CMs and scoot. Basically, what Su-24 doing, but safer. I don’t think there will be any point in challenging Russian air power.

How does Ukraine even manage to operate fighter jets? I thought Russia could close their airports and bomb their hangars. Maybe I was missing something.

Edit: On the other hand Ukraine's counteroffensive is about to end, so the recent attacks on Crimea might be their last big shot for now. I guess Putin is not going to loose his head about securing Odessa in a premature offensive. A seaborn invasion of Ukraine's coastline is probably too risky, so we might see a painfully slow grind towards Odessa via a land route.

SolidarityWithRussia wrote:How does Ukraine even manage to operate fighter jets? I thought Russia could close their airports and bomb their hangars. Maybe I was missing something.

Yes. 
Highways as airfields, probably Romania, Russian ISR is not all seeing and Ukraine is not small country. SU-24 losses happen even if Ukrainians are very careful when using them.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (September 14, 2023)

Part I

In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces utilising the results of aviation, heavy flamethrower systems, and artillery strikes repelled eight attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 80th Airborne Assault Brigade and 59th Motorised Brigade near Klescheevka, Berdichi, Pervomayskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).

The enemy's losses for the day have amounted to around 350 servicemen killed and wounded, three armoured fighting vehicles, five motor vehicles, three U.S.-made M777 and M109 howitzers, and one D-30 howitzer.

One ammunition depot of the AFU 28th Mechanised Brigade has been hit close to Dileevka (Donetsk People's Republic).

In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Group of Forces supported by Army aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled three attacks by the AFU 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade and 71st Jaeger Brigade close to Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region).

Up to 95 servicemen, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles were neutralised.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, U.S.-made M777 and M119 artillery howitzers, one UK-made FH-70 howitzer, one Msta-B howitzer, one D-20 and one D-30 howitzers were wiped out.

In South Donetsk direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces' units, aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled one attack of an assault detachment of the AFU 128rd Territorial Defence Brigade close to Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).

Up to 140 servicemen, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles were neutralised.

In Krasny Liman direction, the Tsentr Group of Forces' units, aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled one attack of an assault detachment of the AFU 63rd Mechanised Brigade close to Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People's Republic).

In addition, strikes were delivered at clusters of enemy manpower and hardware near Seversk, Grigorovka, and Serebryanka (Donetsk People's Republic).

Up to 55 servicemen, three armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, and one D-20 howitzer were destroyed.

In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Forces units, air strikes, and artillery fire repelled one attack of the AFU 30th Mechanised Brigade near Sinkovka (Kharkov region).

The enemy suffered losses of up to 130 servicemen, two infantry fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles in this direction during the day.

In addition, in the course of counter-battery warfare, one AFU M777 artillery howitzer, one M109 Paladin artillery system, as well as one US-made AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station were neutralised.

Two AFU ammunition depots were annihilated close to Berestovoye and Tikhoye (Kharkov region).

In Kherson direction, up to 70 servicemen, one armoured fighting vehicle, seven motor vehicles, as well as one D-30 howitzer, were neutralised by fire.

Part II

Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 143 areas during the day.

In addition, one P-18 air target detection and tracking radar station was destroyed near Novopavlovka (Donetsk People's Republic).

Two command posts of the AFU 100th Territorial Defence Brigade and the 15th regiment of Ukraine's National Guard were hit near Serebryanka and Krasny Liman (Donetsk People's Republic).

One AFU ammunition depot was wiped out close to Trudovoye (Zaporozhye region).

Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces shot down one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Krasny Liman (Donetsk People's Republic).

Russian air defence units intercepted four HIMARS MLRS projectiles during the day.

Furthermore, during the day, 53 unmanned aerial vehicles were neutralised and suppressed by radio electronic warfare means close to Verkhnekamenka, Topolevka (Lugansk People's Republic), Peski, Vasilevka, Krasnaya Gora (Donetsk People's Republic), Novofedorovka, Vasilyevka (Zaporozhye region), Aleshki and Novaya Kakhovka (Kherson region).

Russian Defence Ministry

@Slavyangrad
5:22 PM · Sep 14, 2023
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Regular wrote:Some people need to get their heads examined and phones taken off them

I don't think this is a pic from Crimea today, as these people are dressed like it is winter. Most likely, this is one of the destroyed Ukrainian S-300.

Short video of Ropucha class ship "Minsk", recorded after the fire was extinguished. It looks like it won't be repaired, considering the age, as damage is too extensive.

https://t.me/milinfolive/106433

SolidarityWithRussia wrote:How does Ukraine even manage to operate fighter jets? I thought Russia could close their airports and bomb their hangars. Maybe I was missing something.

Soviet-era fighters were designed to operate even on highways, without the need for airfields, hangars, etc...

Results of the arrival of Geraniums at the arsenal in the Kyiv region on September 11
Coordinates: 49.6166386, 30.6597510

Local authorities tried to pass off the defeat of the arsenal as planned blasting work at a granite quarry 49.6506646, 30.5848773

“As we can see, there are three visually clear arrivals in three warehouses, after which there were rather large craters and a fire that lasted for a couple of days. Let me remind you that only geraniums arrived, and judging by the craters (about 50 meters in diameter) and the ejection of earth for hundreds of meters, The warehouses were as full as they should be."
https://t.me/lost_armour/1581?single

@lancelot
Already heard HI Sutton hyperbole on it claiming Russia cannot replace losses in Kilo subs because the Bosporus is closed to military ships. That retard never heard of the Russian Canal System. Perhaps he needs to look at a map and see where the Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard is. It built Kilo submarines for export in 2005. And the Russians can build like 1-2 of these subs a year.

Kilo class can't go through Volga-Don canal. Maximum draft is 3.5 meters if I'm not mistaken.
Also, nowadays Krasnoye Sormovo builds only parts for the subs. All improved Kilo class were built in Saint Petersburg.

Surovikin in Algeria?!

https://t.me/boris_rozhin/97537

General Surovikin in Algeria.
No one fired him from the army.  Now he is engaged in affairs in the African direction.
Earlier, General Alekseev also made his mark on the African continent.