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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Fri Sep 15, 2023 3:47 pm

    mr_hd wrote:It is not point can Russia repair or re-build more subs or ships, it can but it will cost more and take very long time. Ukrainian asymmetrical strategy is only it can have against much stronger opponent.
    Like I said, Ukraine blew up a single submarine in two years and Russia can build 1-2 of these submarines a year. And that is using a single shipyard at St. Petersburg. Not that long ago Russia used three shipyards to build these subs.

    The other idea pushed by HI Sutton that Russia somehow lost capacity to launch Kalibr cruise missiles because of this submarine being damaged is also BS. For one it was in dry dock being repaired. Not in service. For another Russia put the Alrosa submarine back into service in the Black Sea Fleet after the conflict started. Then there is the fact Russia put the Karakurt class corvette Tsiklon into service in the Black Sea Fleet this year, with Askold expected to follow.

    The truth is Russia's naval striking power in the Black Sea has been increasing since the conflict started.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Fri Sep 15, 2023 4:37 pm

    HI Sutton lost any credibility a long time ago.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 15, 2023 4:45 pm

    These people aren't analysts, they're propagandists. That is their role. All the Oryx's and HI Suttons and whatever.

    NATO has invested a lot into these tools. Not for nothing did Putin call the USA the 'empire of lies'.

    The Pentagon and CIA have actual analysts who are capable of giving a detailed and realistic picture of things.. provided they aren't overruled and threatened with job loss by their superiors for daring to suggest that Russia may be winning, or creating problems for the administration. But either way you as member of the public won't hear from these people nor know who they are.

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    Post  SolidarityWithRussia Fri Sep 15, 2023 5:37 pm

    GarryB wrote:An Su-24 flys very low and very fast and is a difficult target to deal with at the best of times... an Su-24 taking off from a motorway in Ukraine, and flying out into the Black Sea and launching some 500km range missiles 500km away from the targets they are going after and then immediately running to airfields in the west where they can land and then probably be shipped back to the Ukraine to do it all over again means they can launch missiles and have a decent chance of evading getting shot down.

    I did not know that, but it is outraging how dirty these cowards are fighting. It is no wonder Russia is warning of a direct clash with Nato. Harboring Ukrainian aircraft means a direct Nato involvement in strike missions against Russia.
    Remember how Turkey justified its invasion of Syria, because they said Syria was harboring Kurdish insurgents. Unfortunately, it is the nuclear blackmail of the West that is preventing Russia to strike Nato airfields, where Ukrainian aircraft are stationed at. Even though they are loosing the war anyway, it emboldens the assumption of the West that Russia can indeed be blackmailed.
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Fri Sep 15, 2023 5:38 pm

    Russia is not winning the war, at least not yet. It's a stalemate.

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    SolidarityWithRussia


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    Post  SolidarityWithRussia Fri Sep 15, 2023 5:41 pm

    The frontline is a stalemate, but when it comes to important aspects like manpower and equipment, then Russia is actually winning. So the frontline stalemate is probably not going to last very long, unless new cannon fodder from Poland or the Baltic states want to join the party.

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    sepheronx
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    Post  sepheronx Fri Sep 15, 2023 5:49 pm

    So much misinformation is spread here and telegram channel's. People with an IQ above room temp can figure a few things out.

    1) Shipyard is a repair dock. Because it has ships in it doesn't mean it's a base nor is the equipment operational

    2) Kalibr has between 1,500 to 2,500km range, they don't need those ships in black sea to launch Kalibr strikes on Ukraine.

    3) we don't actually know the extent of the damage. There isn't a single expert on this forums on such stuff as far as we know.

    4) There really isn't such a thing as a stalemate in this as Russia is currently on defensive and not offensive.  Stalemate would indicate Russia is actively trying to make major moves against Ukraine in New directions - it hasn't for at least couple of weeks.

    5) certain members here like Mr HD appear only for a specific goal.  Simple fact that it still is allowed to post here is astounding and shows that trolls, bots and paid instigators can freely move around and trash the place.

    6) Russia still builds Kilo's, and rather fast too.

    7) No, Russia didn't increase missile production because it circumvented sanctions and getting the chips from the west.  Chips used in most to all military equipment isn't top of the line and is usually on nodes as old as 90nm amd older.  To which Russia mass produces in those ranges.  Telegram channel's pushing this narrative but proclaim to be pro Russian, are simply adding fuel to this fake narrative.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 15, 2023 6:04 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Russia is not winning the war, at least not yet. It's a stalemate.

    How do you measure that? Its true that you can lose less men and still lose a war (like Vietnam or Germany in the USSR) but I do not see the will of Russia breaking, not even close. And I see a lot of cracks forming in NATO. If Ukraine develops the ability to strike deep into Russia on a SUSTAINED basis, I would say that is trouble. I would say the biggest fuckup of the Sevastopol strike is somehow allowing Ukraine to get several SU-24s into the air and fly them to launch positions and allowing them to land unmolested. Why do they not have 7x24x365 AWACS or MIG 31 patrols. Russia is doing a solid B- on battlespace surveillance. Its not like Ukraine is a mountainous country so there is no excuse here.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 15, 2023 6:08 pm

    sepheronx wrote:So much misinformation is spread here and telegram channel's. People with an IQ above room temp can figure a few things out.



    7) No, Russia didn't increase missile production because it circumvented sanctions and getting the chips from the west.  Chips used in most to all military equipment isn't top of the line and is usually on nodes as old as 90nm amd older.  To which Russia mass produces in those ranges.  Telegram channel's pushing this narrative but proclaim to be pro Russian, are simply adding fuel to this fake narrative.

    Its pretty absurd that precision guided muntions have been around for 40 years and people still think you need state of the art chips to make them. Then the same people claim the chip are coming from washing machines... is there a washing machine with a built in game console? Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48 - Page 31 1f606
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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 15, 2023 6:19 pm

    GarryB wrote:

    An Su-24 flys very low and very fast and is a difficult target to deal with at the best of times... an Su-24 taking off from a motorway in Ukraine, and flying out into the Black Sea and launching some 500km range missiles 500km away from the targets they are going after and then immediately running to airfields in the west where they can land and then probably be shipped back to the Ukraine to do it all over again means they can launch missiles and have a decent chance of evading getting shot down.



    SU-24 is a very capable platform, but there is NO WAY it should be able to waltz out over the Black Sea unobserved. The sinking of the cruiser means that Russia cannot put an AD picket outside Odessa so it could use MIG-31's flying CAP to cover the exit points. It only needs to keep 2 in the air but 7x24. They can fly super high and look down. Any SU-24s would get an R-37. Just having this patrol means the Ukrainians would be unlikely to try it.
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    Post  Arrow Fri Sep 15, 2023 6:36 pm

    U-24 is a very capable platform, but there is NO WAY it should be able to waltz out over the Black Sea unobserved. The sinking of the cruiser means that Russia cannot put an AD picket outside Odessa so it could use MIG-31's flying CAP to cover the exit points. It only needs to keep 2 in the air but 7x24. They can fly super high and look down. Any SU-24s would get an R-37. Just having this patrol means the Ukrainians would be unlikely to try it. wrote:


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48 - Page 31 533efdf683cc9
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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48 - Page 31 A9358593bab60

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Sep 15, 2023 7:50 pm

    Lots of reports in twitter saying Ramzan Kadyrov is in a coma. If true it seems like a successful Ukrainian/Western intelligence operaation as Kadyrov has managed to keep Chechnya loyal to Russia and he has sent his soldiers to fight in Ukraine. If the West manages to liquidate Kadyrov what will happen in Chechnya next? Russia cannot afford another war in Caucasus now.

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    ucmvulcan
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    Post  ucmvulcan Fri Sep 15, 2023 7:59 pm

    Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Russia is not winning the war, at least not yet. It's a stalemate.

    Well, yes and no. The original Ukrainian army with Ukrainian arms is gone. The NATO standard trained Ikrainian army with Ukrainian weapons is gone. The NATO standard with NATO equipment army is gone. Ukrainian dead are between 300 and 600 thousand vs 25 to 30 thousand Russian. BRICS is growing. Russia is just biding its time and is doing exactly what it said it would do, protect Russian sovereignty, denazify Ukraine (among those dead are most of Ukraine's most hardened nazis), demilitarize Ukraine (they are also depleting the US and EU's arms stockpiles), and have done so while not taking Ukrainian land. Russia is winning this war, but its not yet visbile on a map, well other than 4 new provinces. After all occupations and putting down guerilla warfare is expensive. Russia is making Ukraine fight the war it wants, not the type of war NATO hoped for.

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    Post  ucmvulcan Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:02 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Lots of reports in twitter saying Ramzan Kadyrov is in a coma. If true it seems like a successful Ukrainian/Western intelligence operaation as Kadyrov has managed to keep Chechnya loyal to Russia and he has sent his soldiers to fight in Ukraine. If the West manages to liquidate Kadyrov what will happen in Chechnya next? Russia cannot afford another war in Caucasus now.

    That's funny Karla, I just checked twitter and your post here is the first I have read about this.

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    Post  kvs Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:08 pm

    mnztr wrote:
    Its pretty absurd that precision guided muntions have been around for 40 years and people still think you need state of the art chips to make them. Then the same people claim the chip are coming from washing machines... is there a washing machine with a built in game console?  Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48 - Page 31 1f606

    They think that 6502s found in washing machines can serve as primary missile guidance parts. Maybe as low level control chips. Russia makes 90 and 65 nm custom ASICs
    that are more than enough for its precision strike missile guidance systems.

    These retards could at least have referred to smart phones but then their narrative wouldn't fly since Russia can source these from China.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:11 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:Lots of reports in twitter saying Ramzan Kadyrov is in a coma. If true it seems like a successful Ukrainian/Western intelligence operaation as Kadyrov has managed to keep Chechnya loyal to Russia and he has sent his soldiers to fight in Ukraine. If the West manages to liquidate Kadyrov what will happen in Chechnya next? Russia cannot afford another war in Caucasus now.

    Wouldn't be the first time he's been reported poisoned.

    But why the projection? A new war in the Caucasus wouldn't happen if Kadyrov is killed. What happened when Kadyrov Snr. was killed? That's yet another Western fantasy. No organized rebel or seperatist organizations have existed there for well over a decade and closer to 2 decades.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:13 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  kvs Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:13 pm

    Stalemate means essentially equal forces balanced. This is 0% applicable to the front in Ukria. What you have is a steady state
    combustion front where one side is consumed while the other sits back and watches. The Russian side has overwhelming battlefield
    and rear support superiority. The difference is so vast that it renders the Ukr side into a collection of suicidal lunatics who "fight"
    by expending human waves consumed at the front that Russia has established and maintains. Burning through thousands of men
    to take over and over a single empty village is beyond pathetic. Even the WWI meat grinder fronts had more logic than this. During
    WWI you did see actual stalemates.



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    Post  TMA1 Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:21 pm

    Well either it is true and shows the west is desperate for some kind of reaction. Two it did not happen and telegram channels are being used to feed confusion. One thing all this does tell me is the neocons are up to sneaky stuff as per usual.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:23 pm

    mr_hd wrote:I normally like Russia and would not like that country would lose its prestige, status and power in general.

    The sooner the West looses its bid to establish multipolar dominance over the world with its parlor tricks and sleights of hand and manipulations that have so far incited a horrific war in the Ukraine, earlier that in Syria, Libya and Iraq - and may yet incite more in Taiwan, Pakistan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Niger, Sudan and other places - the better for humanity.

    Western countries won't collapse. This discrepit globalist system will along with the elites that run, but as for the US, the European countries themselves their economies will recover, new generations of sensible politicians will be elected who will pursue realistic policies of integrating as equals together with the rest of the world, and that will be that. It'll be a brave new world.

    Russia though has no such option, its been targeted for destruction. The Western megalomaniac elites and all the media and propaganda instruments at their beck and call have been altogether quite open about this. It's a matter for survival for Russia to destroy Western hegemony and not just in the Ukraine, and it's what will be done. If you have any sense at all, you will not see a regression in this but an evolution. For everyone.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:34 pm

    Arrow wrote:


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48 - Page 31 533efdf683cc9
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48 - Page 31 6bfd439a11042
    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48 - Page 31 A9358593bab60


    So it was the froggy version I guess. lol maybe they should hit the arc de triomph with Kinzhal and see how the frogs like it,.

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Sep 15, 2023 8:48 pm

    If it turns out that Ukraine or the West is behind Kadyrov poisoning then there are no more excuses for Russia not to go after Ukrainian leadership and start assassinating them. Kadyrov is one of the most important politicians in Russia.  Killing him is a major escalation. But knowing Putin and the Kremlin nothing will happen.
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    Post  ALAMO Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:12 pm

    sepheronx wrote:So much misinformation is spread here and telegram channel's. People with an IQ above room temp can figure a few things out.

    1) Shipyard is a repair dock. Because it has ships in it doesn't mean it's a base nor is the equipment operational

    2) Kalibr has between 1,500 to 2,500km range, they don't need those ships in black sea to launch Kalibr strikes on Ukraine.

    3) we don't actually know the extent of the damage. There isn't a single expert on this forums on such stuff as far as we know.

    4) There really isn't such a thing as a stalemate in this as Russia is currently on defensive and not offensive.  Stalemate would indicate Russia is actively trying to make major moves against Ukraine in New directions - it hasn't for at least couple of weeks.

    5) certain members here like Mr HD appear only for a specific goal.  Simple fact that it still is allowed to post here is astounding and shows that trolls, bots and paid instigators can freely move around and trash the place.

    6) Russia still builds Kilo's, and rather fast too.

    7) No, Russia didn't increase missile production because it circumvented sanctions and getting the chips from the west.  Chips used in most to all military equipment isn't top of the line and is usually on nodes as old as 90nm amd older.  To which Russia mass produces in those ranges.  Telegram channel's pushing this narrative but proclaim to be pro Russian, are simply adding fuel to this fake narrative.

    Long story short : apes on rampage.

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    Post  Karl Haushofer Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:30 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    mr_hd wrote:I normally like Russia and would not like that country would lose its prestige, status and power in general.

    The sooner the West looses its bid to establish multipolar dominance over the world with its parlor tricks and sleights of hand and manipulations that have so far incited a horrific war in the Ukraine, earlier that in Syria, Libya and Iraq - and may yet incite more in Taiwan, Pakistan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Niger, Sudan and other places - the better for humanity.

    Western countries won't collapse. This discrepit globalist system will along with the elites that run, but as for the US, the European countries themselves their economies will recover, new generations of sensible politicians will be elected who will pursue realistic policies of integrating as equals together with the rest of the world, and that will be that. It'll be a brave new world.

    Russia though has no such option, its been targeted for destruction. The Western megalomaniac elites and all the media and propaganda instruments at their beck and call have been altogether quite open about this. It's a matter for survival for Russia to destroy Western hegemony and not just in the Ukraine, and it's what will be done. If you have any sense at all, you will not see a regression in this but an evolution. For everyone.
    You don't understand the western mindset. They will never accept other countries or continents as their equals. Hoping that a change of leadership will change the mindset and behavior of the West is childish. What needs to happen is a military defeat of the West and break of its unity. Make germany hate france and canada hate the usa. Make them fight each other so that they are preoccupied in their own affairs. Unable to wage wars in asia and africa. Currently the West is too united and cohesive for the good of the rest of the world. And now we instead have idiotic eastern slavs killing each other. Nothing pleases the West more than seeing this happen and contributing in it by arming ukraine.

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    Post  Hole Fri Sep 15, 2023 10:03 pm

    Wouldn't be the first time he's been reported poisoned.
    If something like that would happen, the Chechens would know who done it. And be very angry.
    In that instance the west could only hope that the russian President is holding them back from 
    their revenge tour.

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    Post  flamming_python Fri Sep 15, 2023 10:20 pm

    Karl Haushofer wrote:You don't understand the western mindset. They will never accept other countries or continents as their equals. Hoping that a change of leadership will change the mindset and behavior of the West is childish. What needs to happen is a military defeat of the West and break of its unity. Make germany hate france and canada hate the usa. Make them fight each other so that they are preoccupied in their own affairs. Unable to wage wars in asia and africa. Currently the West is too united and cohesive for the good of the rest of the world.  And now we instead have idiotic eastern slavs killing each other. Nothing pleases the West more than seeing this happen and contributing in it by arming  ukraine.

    What's there to understand.

    The unity of the West is really just the dominance of the USA. And the dominance of the USA is the dominance of one particular elite in it at the exclusion of everyone with more sensible opinions, such as Trump or that relative of Kennedy who's also tried to run for president.

    You get rid of these people, 'regime change' in their own parlance, by inflicting a defeat in the Ukraine and anywhere else they try their schemes - then the problem will sort itself out.
    And whether Germany and France then go back to hating each other or Canada the USA is not my concern. I have no problem with European countries forming an economic union. I have no problem with the US and Canada being part of the same military alliance. That's not the core issue here. The issue is that the elites there have chosen to cockblock anyone's development who's not playing along with their game, refuse to let go of the petrodollar and spend endless virtual money at others' expense, buy up entire national elites and forment wars between countries as a way of ensuring their dominance over the planet . That has all got to go into the rubbish bin of history. Every last one of those dirty instruments and dastardly tactics together with all the infiltrated world organizations and NGOs that help enforce it. What the West does then, whether it stays as some cohesive whole or whatever is only the business of the countries that comprise it. Although yes, with no more world domination racket to run there probably won't be a need for a Western bloc as such. And neither will be there a need for everyone else to stay together in the BRICS, SCO and other organizations to oppose them.

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