Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

For those that like to track the units involved in the fighting:

I have found a very interesting map where all known troop locations are marked - you can also see some battle history of those units - and the order of battle.
I will try to make a thread this weekend with some conclusions - especially about the northern sector.
(spoiler - that sector is not only being activated by RF "to take back Kupyansk" - the main purpose is to pull AFU reserves there AND train RF formations from "defensive skills" to attack formations - after that they are rotated to other sectors - and the next "less skilled" formations take over - that is why we saw an "operational pause" the last 2 weeks there)

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1700056014303682935

NOTES:
- have not been able to locate the 2nd Corps 6th Motor Rifle regiment for awhile. The last location I had for it is now the new 88th Motor Rifle brigade so maybe it was reorganized and renamed. The other regular regiments of the LDPR forces were reorganized into brigades and several of their regular units renamed after being incorporated into the Russian Army.
- Also have not been able to locate any units or confirmation of the new 47th Motor Rifle division
- If you look closely you will notice HQ's for the 44th Airborne and 104th Airborne divisions. The 104th is due to be formed by years end while the 44th Division HQ was formed out of the Military Institute at Ryazan and the training center out of Omsk. It apparently commands the 3-4 regiments (Territorial Defense) formed out of mobilized ex-paratroopers.
- The territorial defense forces and reserve units are staffed by the mobilized reservists of both the LDPR's and Russian Federations.
- the Volunteer units (40+ staffed from 200-2,000 each, most battalion sized) overlap with some of the BARS's units and numbered reserve or territorial defense units.
- in addition there are Territorial Defense and volunteer units (20-24) stationed in Belgorod, Brysank and Kursk.

ALAMO wrote:

It is all getting more and more ridiculous.
Russkie are around 700k manpower in the army now - double the pre240222 status.
We can hardly observe old 72s anymore, most of the tanks in the field are 90Ms, 72B3 and B3M, 80BVM.
BMP3 are being pumped out of Kurganmash by whole echelons.
BMP2 delivered now are a full Berezhok variant.
Koalitsya in serial production.
Lines are full of MSTA M2, we talk about dozens of pieces in the production stages.

As Kvs said - all thanks to some 10 year old snot nosed war planners

The West does know what they are doing and they know that no amount of weapons will change the course or the end result if isolated like it is now.
Their goal is to prevent for the war to stagnate or to stop, that's why they deliver batches of equipment enough for offensive/counter-offensive or some defensive capacity but not more.
If the war stops their money laundering stops, they are counted as defeated and Russia won. Russia can't be overpowered by one Proxy country. They need multiple fronts and the hope some insiders of 5th columnists will use this as a point to overthrow the government.

So I am not quite sure why some of you believe that is "all" what the West is counting on to defeat Russia.

There will be at least three fronts when looking at the current development of the potential candidates for this war.

I think the West was aiming to kill as many Slavs as possible and to wreck the Russian economy as a result. It failed dismally - except that 404 lost big time.

Mir wrote:I think the West was aiming to kill as many Slavs as possible and to wreck the Russian economy as a result. It failed dismally - except that 404 lost big time.

"We will destroy you with your own people and your own weapons!" was the philosophy I think of the Washington elites, relishing as they like to do in the irony of this or that situation or caricatures that they've dreamt up of or whatever.

Werewolf wrote: Russia can't be overpowered by one Proxy country. They need multiple fronts and the hope some insiders of 5th columnists will use this as a point to overthrow the government.

Armenia with Pashilian and Kazakhstan are good candidates unfortunately. Georgia seems to remember 08.08.08 lesson still and that's good.

The Federation Council warned Armenia against repeating the mistakes of Ukraine and Georgia

The Federation Council pointed out dangerous trends in the actions of the Armenian authorities

n addition, our diplomats are working to ensure that Armenia does not repeat the fate of Georgia and Ukraine. We maintain not only close bilateral contacts between our countries, but also interaction within international organizations, including the CSTO. Thus, friendly relations will remain between Moscow and Yerevan, despite the latest anti-Russian attacks,” Dolgov concluded.

https://vz.ru/news/2023/9/8/1229436.html

Armenia is pain in the ass for a way too long.
Russkie get much more profits with a commercial, mutual benefit cooperation with Azeris.
If Ormians are stupid enough to bite the hand that feeds and covers them, let the Azeri do their usual things. This time using them instead of sheeps.

in the morning i saw on Kirill Ferodov TG (cannot find it now ill try to find iot later) info that "Russian executions of freshly mobilized Ukrainians" were in fact Elimination of GRU DRG groups...

some memorial plaques of "hero fo ukrine GRU officer..." in those places

ALAMO wrote:Armenia is pain in the ass for a way too long.
Russkie get much more profits with a commercial, mutual benefit cooperation with Azeris.
If Ormians are stupid enough to bite the hand that feeds and covers them, let the Azeri do their usual things. This time using them instead of sheeps.

I would disagree here - Azerbaijan is now Turkish ally and Russia doesnt have any direct access to Armenia just in case...Besides Armenia is a bit like Ukrine many pro Russian under Umbrella of Soros backed "euroPeons"

Seems two full trains ...

Just two? 

Then they really need help.

Too late.

Wait till 404 gets the mighty Abrahams...

You mean Vader Abraham? 

It's the war planning level of a snot-nosed 10 year old.

A special 10 year old.

Sending forcefully recruited cannon fodder stupid enough not to run away while on training in Belgium manning Leopard 1 will surely change the tide ...

In order for those 71 year old "volunteers" to man the tanks, NATO needs to order special ladders.

If Ormians are stupid enough to bite the hand that feeds and covers them, let the Azeri do their usual things. 

I wouldn´t poke the bear now. 

Hole wrote:
Just two? 

It's only Friday, you know ...

I think the cunning of western elites is not well supported. If they wanted a drawn out war until Biden's zombie "re-election" in November of 2024, they
would need an army that can fight for that long. It is becoming clearer that the human wave mobilizations are at the point of exhaustion and did not even
do much (e.g. the great counter-offensive) to start with. I discount the idea that Russian forces are stymied by the Ukr hordes. It is a deliberate choice
of the Russian leadership to limit the campaign to its current zone. This includes he construction of the defence barriers that the Ukrs have failed to
breach. To NATzO wankers this gives the appearance of Russia unable to roll over Ukria.

Why the "timid" approach? I think it is driven by the following:

- limit civilian casualties across Ukria to a minimum
- limit Russian forces losses to a minimum
- grind down Ukr cannon fodder in operation "moth to flame" to enable easier campaign progress later
- expend NATzO resources to support its Kiev proxies (this is working very well)

So it looks to me like there may well be a final Russian offensive in the next year. If not this fall, then by next summer.

Ukria will have a hard time raising another 200,000 man army. The fighting age male Ukrs abroad are not a good supply even if NATzO deports
them. These are the sort of people who do not want to fight and will find a way to escape. If they are sent back to Ukria, then I expect them to
surrender more readily than the previous batches. Supplying this new army with weapons will be harder than for the current counter-offensive.
But even if 200,000 is assembled, Russia will send 500,000 against them and roll over them. This batch will be much easier to roll over than any
of the previous batches.

I do not think Russia will do Biden's handlers any favours by establishing a "stalemate". It is in Russia's interests for have full regime change in Kiev.
Biden is likely to get a nasty PR gift before his stolen election.

Mir wrote:I think the West was aiming to kill as many Slavs as possible and to wreck the Russian economy as a result. It failed dismally - except that 404 lost big time.

Well the did kill a shitload of slavs.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/poland-aims-create-largest-army-europe-within-two-years

Poland Aims To Create Largest Army In Europe Within Two Years


They are well on their way to doing this. It has to be relevant to the Ukr war. They could keep the current war going to 2025/2026. In that time, they could be streamlining the sheep dipping process. Who knows.

Russia would be able to kick this Polish military to shit. But that is not the point. The point is Russia doesn't have to put up with this as a nuclear power.

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

The Federation Council pointed out dangerous trends in the actions of the Armenian authorities

https://vz.ru/news/2023/9/8/1229436.html

I have to be frank here. Armenia wants some guarantee about the fate of the disputed Artsakh region, which on my opinion, leigitimately belongs to Armenia.

And if Russia can't do anything to help, in an act of desperation, Armenia will be tempted by invitation from the devils.

I know people have this and that opinion about successive governments in Armenia but my opinion is (1) Nikol Pashinyan is not really pro-USA and (2) regardless of how the politicians are, Artsakh deserve to be united with Armenia.

Nakhchivan can get back to Azerbaijan, so why Artsakh cannot have such rights to get back to Armenia ?

The Artsakh region should have been given to Armenia in a referendum during the 192x decade, in a similar manner that Nakhchivan chose to be Azerbaijan, but at that time the USSR made a huge mistake.

Honestly speaking I have no good opinion about Azerbaijan government, although I don't see the current Armenian rulers as saints, either.

kvs wrote:It's the war planning level of a snot-nosed 10 year old.  

The Ukr offensive was all planned by the US. Every part of it. Mercenaries have reported that when you cross the border into Ukraine, all of the points you cross are manned by Americans. Crossing into Ukraine is like entering a US military base.

But of course they blame everything that went wrong on Ukraine itself. Just to humiliate them some more. If anything went right, they would have taken all the credit for it.

The main drawback to your argument is that the Armenia government themselves have never legally recognized Artsakh's independence from Azerbaijan... strange doings.

Backman wrote:

kvs wrote:It's the war planning level of a snot-nosed 10 year old.  

The Ukr offensive was all planned by the US. Every part of it. Mercenaries have reported that when you cross the border into Ukraine, all of the points you cross are manned by Americans. Crossing into Ukraine is like entering a US military base.

But of course they blame everything that went wrong on Ukraine itself. Just to humiliate them some more. If anything went right, they would have taken all the credit for it.

The joke in regards to the 10 year old doing the planning is that Zelensky claimed after the start of his presidency that he took military advise from his then 10 year old son... suspect puberty may be starting and he has lost his focus.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/7/five-ukrainian-drones-downed-in-latest-raids-on-russian-territory - the Russians r getting better at drone defense!

https://ura.news/news/1052683558 https://news.yahoo.com/war-ukraine-pushing-russia-away-110301648.html

https://antiwar.com/blog/2023/09/05/conflicts-of-interest-biden-wants-to-turn-ukraine-into-a-forever-war

https://antiwar.com/blog/2023/09/05/the-bitter-alchemy-of-war

higurashihougi wrote:

GunshipDemocracy wrote:

The Federation Council pointed out dangerous trends in the actions of the Armenian authorities

https://vz.ru/news/2023/9/8/1229436.html

I have to be frank here. Armenia wants some guarantee about the fate of the disputed Artsakh region, which on my opinion, leigitimately belongs to Armenia.

And if Russia can't do anything to help, in an act of desperation, Armenia will be tempted by invitation from the devils.

I know people have this and that opinion about successive governments in Armenia but my opinion is (1) Nikol Pashinyan is not really pro-USA and (2) regardless of how the politicians are, Artsakh deserve to be united with Armenia.

Nakhchivan can get back to Azerbaijan, so why Artsakh cannot have such rights to get back to Armenia ?

The Artsakh region should have been given to Armenia in a referendum during the 192x decade, in a similar manner that Nakhchivan chose to be Azerbaijan, but at that time the USSR made a huge mistake.

Honestly speaking I have no good opinion about Azerbaijan government, although I don't see the current Armenian rulers as saints, either.

I dont think it is disputable that Pashinyan is pro US. Not so much pro US as someone there to carry out plans for the US. But even the nominally pro Russian elements in the country played "multi vector" politics with the US and were useless and terrible allies. The massive US embassy (2nd biggest in the world) was built before Pashinyan. The situation is hopeless.

higurashihougi wrote:I have to be frank here. Armenia wants some guarantee about the fate of the disputed Artsakh region, which on my opinion, leigitimately belongs to Armenia.

And if Russia can't do anything to help, in an act of desperation, Armenia will be tempted by invitation from the devils.

I know people have this and that opinion about successive governments in Armenia but my opinion is (1) Nikol Pashinyan is not really pro-USA and (2) regardless of how the politicians are, Artsakh deserve to be united with Armenia.

Nakhchivan can get back to Azerbaijan, so why Artsakh cannot have such rights to get back to Armenia ?

The Artsakh region should have been given to Armenia in a referendum during the 192x decade, in a similar manner that Nakhchivan chose to be Azerbaijan, but at that time the USSR made a huge mistake.

Honestly speaking I have no good opinion about Azerbaijan government, although I don't see the current Armenian rulers as saints, either.

How naive you are. This sort of thing was Soviet strategy from the beginning. In the case of Artsakh, Lenin sacrificed the aspirations to self-determination of the Armenian population there in favour of coming to an tacit understanding with Ataturk and cementing Soviet control over the Transcaucasus, particularly Azerbaijan. And this was absolutely the correct policy. If Lenin or Stalin had always put ideology or morality ahead of realpolitik then the country would not have survived.

Azerbaijan's 'national' claim to Artsakh is that Azeri nobility had control of this land during the Iranian era and the Armenians populating it were little more than their serfs. By that measure, maybe Azerbaijan itself should be part of Russia today as the Tsar held ultimate sovereignty over this territory back in his day?
Regardless, it is what it is.

As for Pashinyan, he has done everything in his power in order to undermine Armenia's alliance with Russia and follow the directives of the same Soros-CIA-whatever that put him in power, while at the same time making an appearance of being the reasonable party at all junctures. But this is only a parlour trick. In reality, he signed an agreement with the Azeri president under Putin's mediation, didn't carry out its provisions in regards to the border delimitation and other things, got some Azeri incursions and shelling in return, and then used that as an excuse to accuse Russia of not fulfilling its obligations to Armenia.. an accusation which also ignores the fact that allied to Armenian forces are occupying de-jure Azeri territory and have been since the early 90s.

Not to say mind you that Russian policy in the Transcaucasus hasn't been horribly miscalculated which is what has ultimately led to losing influence in both Armenia and Azerbaijan and being outmaneuvered by both the West and Turkey there. Because, it has been. Pashinyan and Aliyev both have been strengthening their respective positions with foreign patronage at Russia's expense. Aliyev over Artsakh. And Pashinyan over Armenia proper, although with Artsakh being sacrificed but that doesn't seem to worry him and his patrons.

mnztr wrote:Well the did kill a shitload of slavs.

And they're not done yet. They will send as many more to their deaths from all sides as they can manage.

UK planes protecting Ukraine ships from Russian attack after grain deal collapse

RAF is conducting patrols over the Black Sea to deter Putin from carrying out attacks on civilian vessels carrying grain exports

RAF aircraft are protecting cargo vessels carrying grain from Ukraine, following Russian attacks, Downing Street has revealed.

In recent weeks, British aircraft have been conducting patrols over the Black Sea to deter Russia from carrying out strikes on civilian vessels.

The Ministry of Defence stepped up its activity in the area after Moscow began attacking grain infrastructure in July, when it scrapped a deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain from its Black Sea ports.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/08/raf-russia-ukraine-black-sea-grain-exports/#:~:text=RAF%20aircraft%20are%20protecting%20cargo,out%20strikes%20on%20civilian%20vessels.

So they escort from Odessa? or escort saboteurs to Turkish Stream?

Regardless of what the Russians do with the Ukrainian electricity network over the next few months, the population is heading for a difficult winter.

Sprinter
@Sprinter99800
Money goes to war: Kyiv leaves the country without heat supply

The Association of Ukrainian Cities called on the government not to leave the country without heat supply. Kyiv does not pay the difference between tariffs and plans to take additional money from the regions. In addition, the new gas supply scheme at a preferential price is not available to almost all heat supply companies.

“Local self-government is sounding the alarm: they are already turning off hot water, there are no funds for heat supply, there is no gas for state employees and the population at special prices either,” reports the Association of Ukrainian Cities, which is headed by Kiev Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko.

According to the association, a month before the start of the heating season, heat utilities throughout Ukraine are forced to stop supplying hot water, cannot prepare for the heating season, and initiate their own bankruptcy.

There are three main problems with heat sinks. First, the government has not reimbursed the difference in tariffs of UAH 36 billion (96 billion rubles), and enterprises do not have the funds to pay gas supply companies. Moreover, preferential prices for gas for heat production at the level of UAH 7.42 (17 rubles) per cubic meter were retained, however, the scheme for obtaining fuel is not possible for most heat producers. All of them are debtors due to a shortfall in funds from the state budget and therefore are required to work according to a new scheme - to open accounts with the State Treasury. And this requires agreements with commercial banks, which have not yet been developed, according to the Association of Ukrainian Cities.

Added to this is the government's initiative to withdraw a 4% personal income tax from local budget revenues, which used to be used to compensate for the difference in tariffs for heating schools, hospitals and kindergartens.

“And this despite the fact that the Association of Ukrainian Cities provided an estimate that the communities financed UAH 62 billion, and received UAH 18.2 billion in return,” the association reports.

Earlier, the association stated that in winter, 10 million people could be left without heat supply due to government policy.