Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

Russia
-New russian formations are being made in russia outside the operation zone with putin announcing 300k have signed up for military contracts this year.
-Last November they have increasted production to 3 8 hour work shifts to assemble new MLRS systems and a contract was signed last month in the military forum to produce 300mm rockets.
-Krasnopol-M2 shells announced for 2024 will increase 25 times the amount. Koalition-SV just finished testing was completed and production begun last month, no announcement on Krasnopol-DM shells that support it to be mass produced yet.
-several hundred T-90Ms and several hundred T-72s with their modifications will be done by the end of this year and the T-14 armata after the engine complaints in the operation would resume production over the current 132 amount in the 1st quarter of 2024.
-Russian reports gave updates that the Hermes MLRS is finishing up trials.the 30 years in the making system being put into service will be a major celebration and with announcements of production of the system and rockets will be where the true nightmare begins.
-@krakek1 tanks to user mig31 here
Instances of published FPV drone attacks by Russian forces, according to Lostarmour a (pro) Russian OSINT groups. 400+ or so lancets produced for this month since September is not finished yet and we got those numbers from that graph
-still getting orders of 4th gen and 5th gen aircrafts
-Production of Kinzhal was increased to 50 times the amount since February 2023, Army forum last august states iskander was produced 7 times the amount more, ukraine complains Belarus has 90 or so of these missiles.

Ukraine.
-tweets every day of people getting thrown into white vans along with latest mobilization news for women and students to get drafted next
-every few months every package deal is like 100 tanks and a number of other armoured vehicles.
-6000 to 14,000 GMLRS will start getting produced somewhere in 2024.
-2025 28,000 to 100,000 155mm shells will be mass produced from U.S.
-have not taken anything into account with Europe if they can efford the energy prices and the means of production for artillery?
-reports now of ukrainian drones hitting Kub short range air defenses and maybe some tunguskas that were not modified in their time to deal with drones so maybe they will be effective against modern short range air defenses?
-60+ F-16s no idea yet on the blocks they will be.
-Getting ATACMs but don't know the amount, high hopes U.S. isnt retarded enough to give nuclear warheads since I don't think Ukraine is worth everyone in this planet to get killed.

The War.
-Russians admitted their excaliburs outranged their current krasnopol shells, but it sounds like excalibur shells were already ran out and russia can make up the difference in range with the use of firing more shells than normal.
-HIMARS has a accurate long range, however current Smerch systems have ranges being similiar and lack of accuracy means having to fire more rockets to increase the chances of enemy destruction which they made that difference up for having more rockets
-of the 1000s of soviet tanks Ukraine has used they have begun using western tanks, hear U.S. has 3000 Abrams but no idea on what variants thoset tanks are. Russia still seems to be using soviet tanks which have some of modifications one with them. But on the other hand mass production is being done for more modern tanks and new assembly lines to soon reach the battlefield

War Predictions.
-I am assuming there will be no major offensive on the Russian side like there was in the beginning of February 2022 until the Presidential elections come in November 2024 out of the assumption that Trump and his administration make a deal that benefits them. If biden is re-elected which I doubt or Trump doesnt make a breakthrough in the negotation the war will resume to a larger scale which I think it will because if Zelensky made a deal that benefits Russia he will no longer be safe in his own country and he is someone that wants to save his own skin.
-I am assuming the tanks that are still stockpiled by NATO will be the only tanks being used, no idea on production for the U.S. side assuming they want to start Abrams X which characteristics of it make it sound like the T-14 armata until 2030.
-Both the U.S. and Russia will mass produce shells and rockets. However Ukraine has lost the range and precision advantage of HIMARs against Tornado-S systems. Ukraine might still enjoy the excalibur advantage if the production of the Krasnopol-DM does not take too long.

Russia has a lot of old sa-6 they can transform into fake Buk launchers.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ones easy to find by satelittes are dummy ones.

Real AD around the front is cammouflaged and hard to find. Buk launchers don't emmit any signal unless when they are firing.

If they haven't done this and just used them in the open then they diserve the losses, again. Like papadragon says, play dumb games win stupid prizes.

I would be very surprised if they don't have tens of fake buks, pantsirs and tor all over the place.

https://www.rt.com/russia/583114-kiev-west-combat-war-fatigue/

Kiev demands West take measures to combat ‘war fatigue’

The head of the National Security and Defense Council, Aleksey Danilov, accused “reputable and influential” Western media outlets of publishing materials suggesting Ukraine’s much-hyped summer counteroffensive is failing, Kiev’s troops are unable to take back territory from Russia, and Moscow’s resources are “limitless.” These sentiments slow down the Western military assistance to Kiev and stand in the way of Ukraine’s “peace formula,” Danilov added.

His words came more than three months into the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has so far failed to bring about any meaningful changes to the front lines but has seen Kiev’s troops suffer heavy losses in attempts to penetrate Russian defenses.