Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

@krakek1
Instances of published FPV drone attacks by Russian forces, according to Lostarmour a (pro) Russian OSINT groups.

Graphic by
lostarmour
in which we see the progression in the videos of attacks uploaded to the internet by Russian FPV drones... more than 300 so far this month
https://twitter.com/krakek1/status/1703340893774754005

@Sprinter99800
more and more videos are appearing online showing Geran-2 kamikaze drones hitting their targets

What's happening to the 300,000 folks who volunteered to serve in the SMO? Are they being trained?

Hole wrote:

The Koreans need the range as they don't have a strike air force.

The military strategy of the North for decades now is to hit all larger cities in the South with artillery after an attack by the US.
That´s why they have those heavy and super-heavy MLR systems. Half of a North-Korean military parade consists of these systems. 

I don't get why they do not mine the approaches to the Danube. But then again, when it comes to interdiction the Russian MOD moves in mysterious ways.

The Fall | Klishchiivka and Andriivka Have Fallen - according to Military summary. Its depressing to hear Russia losing anything as blood will have to be shed to take it back. I don't understand why they cannot just unleash vast amounts of air power to stop these assaults. Perhaps they are saving up ammo for a greater, more strategic assault. Damn waiting is hell.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:What's happening to the 300,000 folks who volunteered to serve in the SMO? Are they being trained?

Russian BMT is 60 days followed by 3-6m of of more advanced training before they join the units, so I assume some are just arriving and perhaps being rotated in.

Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E wrote:@Sprinter99800
more and more videos are appearing online showing Geran-2 kamikaze drones hitting their targets

https://twitter.com/i/status/1703517939951960105

Man, don't you just hate when neighbors are mowing the lawn at 3AM?

Russia
-New russian formations are being made in russia outside the operation zone with putin announcing 300k have signed up for military contracts this year.
-Last November they have increasted production to 3 8 hour work shifts to assemble new MLRS systems and a contract was signed last month in the military forum to produce 300mm rockets.
-Krasnopol-M2 shells announced for 2024 will increase 25 times the amount. Koalition-SV just finished testing was completed and production begun last month, no announcement on Krasnopol-DM shells that support it to be mass produced yet.
-several hundred T-90Ms and several hundred T-72s with their modifications will be done by the end of this year and the T-14 armata after the engine complaints in the operation would resume production over the current 132 amount in the 1st quarter of 2024.
-Russian reports gave updates that the Hermes MLRS is finishing up trials.the 30 years in the making system being put into service will be a major celebration and with announcements of production of the system and rockets will be where the true nightmare begins.
-@krakek1 tanks to user mig31 here
Instances of published FPV drone attacks by Russian forces, according to Lostarmour a (pro) Russian OSINT groups. 400+ or so lancets produced for this month since September is not finished yet and we got those numbers from that graph
-still getting orders of 4th gen and 5th gen aircrafts
-Production of Kinzhal was increased to 50 times the amount since February 2023, Army forum last august states iskander was produced 7 times the amount more, ukraine complains Belarus has 90 or so of these missiles.

Ukraine.
-tweets every day of people getting thrown into white vans along with latest mobilization news for women and students to get drafted next
-every few months every package deal is like 100 tanks and a number of other armoured vehicles.
-6000 to 14,000 GMLRS will start getting produced somewhere in 2024.
-2025 28,000 to 100,000 155mm shells will be mass produced from U.S.
-have not taken anything into account with Europe if they can efford the energy prices and the means of production for artillery?
-reports now of ukrainian drones hitting Kub short range air defenses and maybe some tunguskas that were not modified in their time to deal with drones so maybe they will be effective against modern short range air defenses?
-60+ F-16s no idea yet on the blocks they will be.
-Getting ATACMs but don't know the amount, high hopes U.S. isnt retarded enough to give nuclear warheads since I don't think Ukraine is worth everyone in this planet to get killed.

The War.
-Russians admitted their excaliburs outranged their current krasnopol shells, but it sounds like excalibur shells were already ran out and russia can make up the difference in range with the use of firing more shells than normal.
-HIMARS has a accurate long range, however current Smerch systems have ranges being similiar and lack of accuracy means having to fire more rockets to increase the chances of enemy destruction which they made that difference up for having more rockets
-of the 1000s of soviet tanks Ukraine has used they have begun using western tanks, hear U.S. has 3000 Abrams but no idea on what variants thoset tanks are. Russia still seems to be using soviet tanks which have some of modifications one with them. But on the other hand mass production is being done for more modern tanks and new assembly lines to soon reach the battlefield

War Predictions.
-I am assuming there will be no major offensive on the Russian side like there was in the beginning of February 2022 until the Presidential elections come in November 2024 out of the assumption that Trump and his administration make a deal that benefits them. If biden is re-elected which I doubt or Trump doesnt make a breakthrough in the negotation the war will resume to a larger scale which I think it will because if Zelensky made a deal that benefits Russia he will no longer be safe in his own country and he is someone that wants to save his own skin.
-I am assuming the tanks that are still stockpiled by NATO will be the only tanks being used, no idea on production for the U.S. side assuming they want to start Abrams X which characteristics of it make it sound like the T-14 armata until 2030.
-Both the U.S. and Russia will mass produce shells and rockets. However Ukraine has lost the range and precision advantage of HIMARs against Tornado-S systems. Ukraine might still enjoy the excalibur advantage if the production of the Krasnopol-DM does not take too long.

Western analysis of why TAURUS will be a game changer. According to them it is superior to SCALP/ Storm Shadow. I don't see how BUK 3 or the various Russian EW system won't be able to intercept it.

Hole wrote:

they have burned Tors 

Did you mean the Tunguskas?

Yeah, you are addressing those poor 2S6 in olive green, lined up and torched
But they did the same with Tor, which was actually funny as it represented some museum-grade piece of the 80s that you couldn't find in Russia for years.

Backman wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:What's happening to the 300,000 folks who volunteered to serve in the SMO? Are they being trained?

You were instructed to go kill yourself a page ago. What happened ?

That was the other troll
They all look alike

I am not a troll. I just asked a prftty legit question or so I thought.

Do we have credible sources that the US is about to send mini-nukes to Ukraine? I hope it is just a sensational story and not reality.



The video is citing former CIA man Ray McGovern, who has been very critical about the US involvement in Ukraine.

Western analysis of why TAURUS will be a game changer. 

Will work as good as the other Wunderwaffe, the Leo2.

Ukraine also operates Buk and Smerch, and in this low-resolution footage we can't see any identification marks.

There is absolutely no need to see identification marks. It’s geolocated in Russian control zone, far behind LOC. Also, Ukrainian BM-30s were hunted down, they still have very little BUKs. 5 of them destroyed by HIMARS (BM-30  no footage, but by the craters it wasn’t hit by HIMARS), filmed by shark UAV. 


Thinking it’s Ukrainian would be denying reality. I know Ukrainians who tried to say that Leopard was Russian tank, better not be like them. It’s the topic that is quite new and interesting as Ukrainians even when not achieving luck on the field, they are quite good at these strikes that would cripple lesser militaries than Russian. 


Fact is that counter drone technologies off the shelf needs to be put in use and I Russia already has all these attacks happen when there is no SHORAD nearby. Detecting small, slow moving and mostly plastic drones is very hard to radars and probably it filters them out.
This is interesting solution, radar detection and tracking system specifically designed to counter drones, but AFAIK, workload of these is insanely high due to false positives, it can see bird shitting in air. Russians have these placed around Moscow in small numbers, radar is better than on DRONE DOME, but it doesn’t have electro-optical sensors. What other solution can be used? Russia probably needs to develop something like Chinese CUAS HQ-17AE ( best anti-drone hard kill system today) - micro TOR

https://vpk.name/news/735550_sistema_kontrolya_za_vozdushnym_prostranstvom_ckba_vvoditsya_v_radiotehnicheskie_kompleksy.html

Regular wrote:

Thinking it’s Ukrainian would be denying reality.

Ukro propaganda and lies are so massive, that it is an obvious defense mechanism - consider the opposite until proven with no doubts.
But you need to read between the lines, too.
Russkie are taking out dozens of Ukro artillery pieces on a daily basis. The thing is so notorious, that people don't pay attention to that anymore.
On the other hand, we have a full scope orgy each time when Ukrs finally take out a piece of hardware. In some cases, they make a materials with scenes being obviously made in a different climate and weather conditions, suggesting the pictures are old or made 1000 km away.
Who knows if not used five times already, only different fragments.
This was an usual practice in every Armenian/Azeri struggle. They made dozens of photos of every single KIA, from different direction, putting that all into the stream to make a perspective of a mass scale killings of the other side.

Edit : sees that Milley has a reality check And says that Ukrainians are not totally spent yet.
How encouraging for them, agree?

Thoughts about how Ukrainian Shark UAVs can penetrate and help target Russian AA systems? It seems shitty drones always slip through with no issues, when more sophisticated ones are slapped out of the sky.

They claim this happened two weeks ago... well by now the entire Russian army must have been routed and they will be showing video of Orc troops marching down the main street in Sevastopol by now... unless it was a fluke or made up completely...

The Orcs have Smerch and BUK... are we sure it is not theirs?

Confused? action is coming?

Or distraction?

They announced it themselves... are they going to start warning the enemy of their intentions now?

How well has that worked out of Kievs forces so far?

Man, don't you just hate when neighbors are mowing the lawn at 3AM?

On the UAV thread I someone suggested a silent model, but I think the lawn mower standard model is much more psychologically effective... and in fact I would say trailing a 10m long wire with a bright LED light with fins to stabilise the flight so it isn't just flapping around would be a good addition for all those guys firing small arms at the drone... the more ammo they fire off the better and if they are not hitting anything even better still...

-Last November they have increasted production to 3 8 hour work shifts to assemble new MLRS systems and a contract was signed last month in the military forum to produce 300mm rockets.

So three 8 hour shifts means the factory is working 24 hours a day in three shifts...

You were instructed to go kill yourself a page ago. What happened ?

That is not acceptable.

Western analysis of why TAURUS will be a game changer.

Yay... their next game changer... perhaps it will require a no fly zone to be imposed over all Ukrainian airspace...

Will be a good test for Russian air defence systems.

I am not a troll. I just asked a prftty legit question or so I thought.

Nothing wrong with the question, but I am amused you think someone here would know the answer...

Do we have credible sources that the US is about to send mini-nukes to Ukraine? I hope it is just a sensational story and not reality.

Actually crossing the nuclear thresh hold would make things simpler for Russia... anywhere such weapons could possibly be stored would need to be destroyed immediately and conventional weapons would not be reliable enough... the locations would need to be nuked to ensure no weapons remain intact.

Thinking it’s Ukrainian would be denying reality.

Thinking it is Ukrainian propaganda is natural given their history of making claims that turn out to be bullshit.

Keep in mind that video the US government released of that drone of theirs they claim got a damaged propeller because of a collision with a Russian aircraft and the fake video they produced to prove it just proved they were full of shit liars... it is not just Kiev making shit up, there is a whole industry in the west for making this bullshit up working every day to fabricate stuff. They can't make tanks any more but they can fake videos... really rather sad actually.

Edit : sees that Milley has a reality check Laughing And says that Ukrainians are not totally spent yet.
How encouraging for them, agree? Laughing Laughing Laughing

The art of the US politician/high ranking officer... they are totally fuked in every port of call, but not totally spent yet because they likely wont get to have a happy ending... this sort of snuff film ends with their deaths, not their orgasm.

I agree about Ukrainian propaganda, it actually makes me despise any info from them. For example, BUK video was “spiced up”, BM-30 was old video. 
 
They have more of problems than Russia - Russia is making drones at insane rate. And what can do Ukrainians to stop them? EW/Softkill measures don’t do nothing. Lancets hit EW stations supposed to stop them. I would poop myself if I was supporting Ukraine. I would need to make things up to cope. And that explains their flag planting in abandoned places. Just to keep their morale up.

Differently from Ukraine, Russia can develop measures and put into production and that is what is interesting me the most. Technologically, we are jumping leaps in decades. I feel sorry for NATOs next military adventure. Imagine if taliban had gerans or cheap FPVs. Perfect landscape for these drones too. So yes, Russian issues are a catalyst for their development, not a success. From rifles (AK-12 had to be lambasted to get to the what it is now) to uniforms and boots. This dooming and self-critique is why I like Russia instead of Ukraine who have everything superior than “vatniks” yet somehow nothing works and we see no results.

Russia has a lot of old sa-6 they can transform into fake Buk launchers.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ones easy to find by satelittes are dummy ones.

Real AD around the front is cammouflaged and hard to find. Buk launchers don't emmit any signal unless when they are firing.

If they haven't done this and just used them in the open then they diserve the losses, again. Like papadragon says, play dumb games win stupid prizes.

I would be very surprised if they don't have tens of fake buks, pantsirs and tor all over the place.

https://www.rt.com/russia/583114-kiev-west-combat-war-fatigue/

Kiev demands West take measures to combat ‘war fatigue’

The head of the National Security and Defense Council, Aleksey Danilov, accused “reputable and influential” Western media outlets of publishing materials suggesting Ukraine’s much-hyped summer counteroffensive is failing, Kiev’s troops are unable to take back territory from Russia, and Moscow’s resources are “limitless.” These sentiments slow down the Western military assistance to Kiev and stand in the way of Ukraine’s “peace formula,” Danilov added.

His words came more than three months into the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has so far failed to bring about any meaningful changes to the front lines but has seen Kiev’s troops suffer heavy losses in attempts to penetrate Russian defenses.

That brings us some funny moments, too.
Like films when Ukrs were supposed to laugh out the Russkie MRE package.
Only to stand with jaws dropped, mouth watered, and shocked about both the diversity and quality of package.
Considering their choice of crackers it is not so weird

There was one with individual protection gear, too - as Ukro "war bloggers" took the "Chinese/Iranian crappy body armor" to the shooting range, only to find out that plates are much better than their own

higurashihougi wrote:https://www.rt.com/russia/583114-kiev-west-combat-war-fatigue/

Kiev demands West take measures to combat ‘war fatigue’

The head of the National Security and Defense Council, Aleksey Danilov, accused “reputable and influential” Western media outlets of publishing materials suggesting Ukraine’s much-hyped summer counteroffensive is failing, Kiev’s troops are unable to take back territory from Russia, and Moscow’s resources are “limitless.” These sentiments slow down the Western military assistance to Kiev and stand in the way of Ukraine’s “peace formula,” Danilov added.

His words came more than three months into the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has so far failed to bring about any meaningful changes to the front lines but has seen Kiev’s troops suffer heavy losses in attempts to penetrate Russian defenses.

Zelensky is demanding Western countries create legislation to enshrine military aid to Ukraine to neutralise war fatigue, i love how they are demanding and and not just asking for it, my gran used to say "I want doesn't get"