Russian special military operation in Ukraine #48

JohninMK wrote:Out of drone range    Use your assets to your advantage, huge distances and cheap fuel.

ALAMO wrote:

Scorpius wrote:
I do not see any damage to the main structures - ruptures of the hull coating do not make the ship unsuitable for further service. In fact, statements have already been made that both the ship and the submarine will be restored after repairs.

This thing is toasted, with clear and visible signs of the internal explosion of a big warhead that tore it apart inside. The blast wave was so powerful that it blew away the front emergency hatch.
Try to be serious.

Scorpius wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Good thing is that Russian Navy's reputation and credibility is already in the shitter so this won't have any meaningful effect on overall morale
Order a new one and tell the Navy to STFU as it gets built

My God, I'm starting to understand why Yugoslavia was fucked in 1999. If your military were all such crying pussies, offended little girls like you on this forum, then it becomes completely clear to me why everything was exactly the way it was. Just keep yourself in hand while the men deal with the problem.

Let me just remind you that there is a deep gap between reasonable constructive criticism and non-stop defeatist whining. Do you want to suck a USA dick? You can go and do it right now, it's your right. But do not agitate someone else, this is your personal choice, and it should not concern someone else.

PhSt wrote:

How is this wrong ? At some point the US will go too far. Then what ?

After Ukraine is liberated and all its inhabitants are exterminated, Finland and the Baltics will have be next on the extermination list. After the Western flank of Russia is secured, all other former soviet territories will have to submit to Russia or  be the next target of the special extermination operation. If NATO interferes, launch the nukes. Its that simple.

ALAMO wrote:Kilo looks way worse than Ropucha. It's dead meat.

Hole wrote:

The base is located 2.4 thousand km from the border with Ukraine, it takes three and a half hours to fly to the launch…

In reality the missile carriers could launch their cruise missiles right after take off and still hit any location inside Banderastan.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:So let me get this straight... We have some very good footage of the event in Konstantinovka, and a lot can be seen and heard in it.

• 1. The munition is a missile/rocket with its motor still running, as it can be loudly heard approaching prior to the strike.
  
  
• 2. People on the street can be seen reacting to the sound, and they look towards it seconds before it hits.
  
  
  • 2.1 Rules out a glide bomb (a glide bomb doesn't make any sound).
    2.2 Rules out an MLRS rocket or a ballistic missile (rocket artillery only burns for a few seconds when launched, a ballistic missile for a bit longer as it gains altitude, it flies silently, ballistically the rest of the way to the target).
    
  
  
  
• 3. These people are looking to the northwest (as can be determined by geolocating the street).
  
  •    3.1 Ergo, it came from Ukrainian-held territory to the north-west, in the direction of Kramatorsk.
    
  
  
  
• 4. It shows up in two frames as a reflection in two different car roofs, and it is not large, it has a thin profile and no big wings or anything.
  
  • 4.1 As with the sound, these visual characteristics also rule out a glide bomb (a glide bomb is fat and has wings).
    4.2 The visual characteristics also rule out a cruise missile (a CM is huge and has big conspicuous wings).
    
  
  
  
• 5. People in the area northwest of Konstantinovka were quoted as having observed Ukrainian missile launches by Ukrainian strike aircraft taking place minutes before this strike.
  
  
• 6. No Russian strikes were reported at the time, there was no air raid alert or anything.
  

And the explosion is far too small for a cruise missile, ballistic missile or glide bomb. So that fact alone rules out those three as well.

Ergo: adding 1+1 together, it is established beyond reasonable doubt that it was a Ukrainian missile, most likely an AGM-88 HARM that was launched in the air by a Ukrainian MiG-29 to the northeast of Konstantinovka, missed its intended target (some Russian radio emitter) and accidentally struck civilians. This exact thing has occured on multiple occasions before, at least one of which even got acknowledged by western media (yes, as crazy as that sounds), eg:

The New York Times: an air-launched AGM-88B missile, built to destroy enemy radars, apparently missed its target and hit an apartment building in Kramatorsk in September.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/24/world/europe/ukraine-american-missile.html

There is a slight possibility that it was a Ukrainian air defense missile (S-300 or what have you) that went awry as well, but as no Russian aerial activity had been reported, while Ukrainian ditto had, it is more likely to have been associated with the latter (ie an air-launched HARM).

A Russian strike can be ruled out based on the direction of travel and the visual and aural characteristics of the weapon:

• 1. The only way a Russian missile with its motor still running could have come from the northwest would have been a cruise missile fired from the Belgorod, Kursk or Bryansk regions (or Belarus).
  
  •   1.1 This can be ruled out based on the shape of the missile.
      1.2 This can also be ruled out by the fact that no CM strike was ongoing (NATO surveillance is very thorough and they instantly alert Ukraine, which then immediately issues regional alerts).
      1.3 ...And nobody reported hearing or seeing it at any time during the 100s of kilometers of Ukrainian-held territory it would have to have flown over, subsonically at low altitude.
    
  
  
  

This is not rocket science (yeah, yeah), just 1+1.

Yet, literally all western media is uncritically parroting Zelenskys remarks of "Russian barbarianism" and what not. Zero reflection, zero research.

It is absolutely astonishing to observe. It is not the first time, though, as many of you know. The New York Times piece above that acknowledges a Ukrainian cock-up is one of the very few times it's been acknowledged by western media. But there are dozens of examples of similarly 100% verifiable Ukrainian strikes (whether accidental or malicious, sometimes you wonder) having taken place over the course of the conflict, and most of them are regularly brought up to this day as clear-cut examples of absolutely intentional "Russian barbarism".

PhSt wrote:
What if NATO hosts Ukrainian UAVs on Finnish soil to launch attacks on Russia's north to test how Russia will react when another red line is crossed? I hope Russia don't hold back this time and sterilize both Finland and the Baltics to make way for its future Russian inhabitants.

Hole wrote:

The base is located 2.4 thousand km from the border with Ukraine, it takes three and a half hours to fly to the launch…

In reality the missile carriers could launch their cruise missiles right after take off and still hit any location inside Banderastan.

Big_Gazza wrote:

ALAMO wrote:Kilo looks way worse than Ropucha. It's dead meat.

Really, is that your expert opinion as a shipbuilding specialist?

I see a sub with two areas of localised damage and likely some internal fire damage, but certainly nothing that is not fully repairable. I'd give it two years tops and the Rostov-on-Don will back in the water.

Man, I just don't understand the doomerism in this fcking place. People who should know better spreading total nonsense...