2023 Israel–Hamas war

ALAMO wrote:

JohninMK wrote:The 'Hamas failed rocket did it' story by the Israelis could be based on this incident. Note the time

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714379889799823843

Already deleted.
Israeli propaganda starts to choke itself.

In case folks here did not see it in time, it contained the video of the two Hamas rockets, one of which appeared to fail and fell in what could have been the hospital area. This was the evidence seemingly used by the IAF to claim that it wasn't them.

The problem was that the original video was timestamped an hour earlier. No wonder its gone.

A bit more analysis from last night

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
EXPERT ANALYSIS: WHO BOMBED THE AL AHLI BAPTIST HOSPITAL IN GAZA?

Marine Corps Veteran expert analysis of the recent bombing incident at the hospital reveals critical findings:

- Fuel Explosion Duration: The initial explosion likely lasted 0.5-0.75 seconds, emitting light for a brief period. This suggests it is not an incendiary device.

- Parking Lot Damage: The damage in the parking lot is attributed to either overpressure or a fuel explosion. There's minimal debris near the cars.

- Shielding Effect: A surrounding building shielded one side of the parking lot, preventing diesel/gas fires from reaching the vehicles. All windows in nearby buildings shattered due to the primary and fuel explosions.

- Last Video Variation: The final video displays a smaller fuel explosion, and the submunition release is less clear.

CONCLUSION:

- The explosive device likely ranged from 300-600 lbs. Larger bombs would've scattered more debris in the parking lot than on buildings.

- A 700lb+ bomb would've caused more damage to building tops due to shockwaves.

- Most visible damage is attributed to the fuel explosion; the primary explosion likely caused structural damage.

Probable munitions and their possessors:

1. Mk-82/Mk-83 General Purpose Bombs:
- Possessed by: Multiple countries, including the US and NATO members. Versatile, unguided bombs.

2. GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB):
- Possessed by: United States and allies. Known for precision strikes.

3. GBU-12 Paveway II Laser-Guided Bomb:
- Possessed by: United States and allies. Converts unguided bombs into precise munitions.

4. AGM-65 Maverick Missile:
- Possessed by: United States and allies. Air-to-surface missile for precision strikes.

Audio Analysis: Based on the video, we can hear what the Hamas missiles and a JDAM missile sound like. Then, we have the audio of the attack on the hospital, and it sounds very similar to a JDAM missile. Hamas does not have the infrastructure and capabilities to fire a JDAM.

These insights offer clarity into the incident, highlighting potential munitions and the militaries that may possess them, and that could have been behind the attacks.

FINAL CONCLUSION:

Based on the evidence, this could not have been the Islamic Jihad, as claimed by the Israeli Defense Force, based on our analysis of the information we have so far. They do not possess the capabilities for such advanced weaponry.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:

This is an analysis is preliminary, and is done by a Marine Corps Veteran Explosives & Ordinance Expert, and reviewed by many others.

As I've said before, we CANNOT come to final conclusions just yet.

The IDF has denied the above claims, and has stated it shared evidence with US Intelligence, including footage and intercepted conversations, that will prove the Islamic Jihad were behind the bombing of the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. This footage and the conversations will also be made public, according to Reuters.

The videos are compiled from various sources and do not represent our opinion in any way.

America is a stupid joke. It is throwing away Christianity in its woke makeover but retains a fixation on the "holy land". So it is not
as simple as Evangelicals, it is a deeper penetration of something else.

Just a gentle reminder of who holds an Ace or two now.

Part 2

ANALYSIS: DID THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OR HAMAS BOMB THE AL AHLI BAPTIST HOSPITAL? Part 2

As promised, I try to be as objective as possible, so I asked my team to speak to a group of geolocating analysts and OSINT members that believe the explosion at the hospital is most likely from a misfire by Hamas or the Islamic Jihad.

This is in-line with the IDF claims that "the deadly blast at the Gaza hospital was from a failed Islamic Jihad rocket"

Below is a small summary of that argument, which my team will further analyze and post about again tomorrow, in more detail.

This will be as detailed as my earlier tweet, which was an analysis by a Marine Corps Veteran Explosives & Ordinance Expert, who explained why he believes the bomb was American, launched by Israel.

THEORY:

"A missile launched by a Palestinian group exploded mid-air (Reason unknown) and one piece fell on the hospital causing an explosion.

The geolocation and timing of the footage is conclusive."

The line of evidence is very long and complex.

A combination of videos, geolocations and map images, is leading to the calculation of the exact hit (link with more details in comments https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1714494615204540607 )

This opens the discussion if the hit was maybe an accident by the Islamic Republic, an ally to Hamas, as claimed by the Israeli Defense Force.

The claim is that rockets from Netiv Haasara were either intercepted or malfunctioned, and accidentally hit the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital.

Geo experts claim the data on the launch site & landing location to be accurate.

To note, after making the same claims, another Geo Expert says this:

"People, please keep in mind I am not coming to any conclusion on what caused the explosion. I’ll leave that to the experts. All I can say with confidence is that an explosion took place at the hospital, and it was live streamed."

MY THOUGHTS:

I stand by my assumption that, based on the size of this explosion, the fact the IDF bombed other hospitals in the past, and they warned hospitals to evacuate, the explosion of the Hospital in Gaza was MOST LIKELY by the IDF.

I also think it was unintentional. It makes no sense for the Israeli military to bomb a hospital full of civilians. Humanitarian reasons aside, the international outcry alone will severely harm public support of the war.

We will be analyzing this counter argument, and await more information tomorrow, along with the evidence the IDF said they will release.

As always, I am open to change my mind as soon as there is evidence. It is too early to come to conclusions, as we need more daytime imagery and videos (i.e. today)

Below are various videos and images supporting the claims above. This includes raw footage shared by the IDF, allegedly showing a rocket aimed at Israel, misfiring, and exploding at 18:59, the same moment the hospital was hit.

Eugenio Argentina wrote:Right now in Lebanon, there are confrontations at the American embassy in Beirut while in the south, the men of the resistance continue their operations against the Zionist bases along the border

The US has its world's largest embassy in Lebanon. I am surprised that the Lebanese government even allowed such a monstrosity to be built in the first place.