A bit more analysis from last night
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
EXPERT ANALYSIS: WHO BOMBED THE AL AHLI BAPTIST HOSPITAL IN GAZA?
Marine Corps Veteran expert analysis of the recent bombing incident at the hospital reveals critical findings:
- Fuel Explosion Duration: The initial explosion likely lasted 0.5-0.75 seconds, emitting light for a brief period. This suggests it is not an incendiary device.
- Parking Lot Damage: The damage in the parking lot is attributed to either overpressure or a fuel explosion. There's minimal debris near the cars.
- Shielding Effect: A surrounding building shielded one side of the parking lot, preventing diesel/gas fires from reaching the vehicles. All windows in nearby buildings shattered due to the primary and fuel explosions.
- Last Video Variation: The final video displays a smaller fuel explosion, and the submunition release is less clear.
CONCLUSION:
- The explosive device likely ranged from 300-600 lbs. Larger bombs would've scattered more debris in the parking lot than on buildings.
- A 700lb+ bomb would've caused more damage to building tops due to shockwaves.
- Most visible damage is attributed to the fuel explosion; the primary explosion likely caused structural damage.
Probable munitions and their possessors:
1. Mk-82/Mk-83 General Purpose Bombs:
- Possessed by: Multiple countries, including the US and NATO members. Versatile, unguided bombs.
2. GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB):
- Possessed by: United States and allies. Known for precision strikes.
3. GBU-12 Paveway II Laser-Guided Bomb:
- Possessed by: United States and allies. Converts unguided bombs into precise munitions.
4. AGM-65 Maverick Missile:
- Possessed by: United States and allies. Air-to-surface missile for precision strikes.
Audio Analysis: Based on the video, we can hear what the Hamas missiles and a JDAM missile sound like. Then, we have the audio of the attack on the hospital, and it sounds very similar to a JDAM missile. Hamas does not have the infrastructure and capabilities to fire a JDAM.
These insights offer clarity into the incident, highlighting potential munitions and the militaries that may possess them, and that could have been behind the attacks.
FINAL CONCLUSION:
Based on the evidence, this could not have been the Islamic Jihad, as claimed by the Israeli Defense Force, based on our analysis of the information we have so far. They do not possess the capabilities for such advanced weaponry.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
This is an analysis is preliminary, and is done by a Marine Corps Veteran Explosives & Ordinance Expert, and reviewed by many others.
As I've said before, we CANNOT come to final conclusions just yet.
The IDF has denied the above claims, and has stated it shared evidence with US Intelligence, including footage and intercepted conversations, that will prove the Islamic Jihad were behind the bombing of the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital. This footage and the conversations will also be made public, according to Reuters.
The videos are compiled from various sources and do not represent our opinion in any way.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1714419377305428295