Russian special military operation in Ukraine #51

bandit6 wrote:It would be a good thing if some people here would sometimes take a look at pro-ukraine telegram channels to see that there are massive casualties on both sides. No way Russia can also maintain that high rate of manpower loss, somethings gotta give.

Ukraine in EU and NATO will eventually happen, might as well sue for peace now.

While the Nazi TG might showcase high dramatized spectacular booms, they are far from being a complete picture.
Reality is more like the Russians inflicting the brunt of the casualties to the enemy with artillery but without TV cameras turned on site.

The Mediazona graph on the meantime, hasn't bulged that much since Bakhmut. Sure, Russia could display better effort at avoiding unecessary casualties by more decisive strikes, but it sure can sustain current trend for at least mid-2025.

Clearly a propaganda machine not going anywhere near the battlefield.

Last 16 employees at Avdiyivka coke plant left in early November, so the plant is dead. Once the furnaces go out they cannot be restarted. They also provided heating for the city, so no heat now.

VOA article from 2015 with a video of the plant says that all 1,700 employees of the plant were living underground for protection from shelling:

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-coking-plant-caught-crossfire/2821100.html

JohninMK wrote:Last 16 employees at Avdiyivka coke plant left in early November, so the plant is dead. Once the furnaces go out they cannot be restarted. They also provided heating for the city, so no heat now.

VOA article from 2015 with a video of the plant says that all 1,700 employees of the plant were living underground for protection from shelling:

https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-coking-plant-caught-crossfire/2821100.html

Just to understand, what does it mean that the furnace cannot be restarted?


It was already partially damaged when the ukrainian army retook adeevka from the Donbass rebels in summer 2014 and production stopped for a while before restarting but at a lower production rate.

Does it mean that in order to have it active again they need basically to dismantle it and build it from scratch?

The plant is currently owned by the firm Metinvest. Metinvest is in turn owned by the Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.

From Wikipedia

The plant was constructed in 1963 by the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic to fulfil the coke needs of the nearby Mariupol Steel Works as well as the availability of coal from local mines. Originally opening with 1 coke battery, this expanded to nine by 1980 with investment from the Soviet Union. By 1988, 100 million tons of coke had been produced making it a major coke producer in Europe. In 1993 as Ukraine gained independence, the plant was privatised as the Open Joint Stock Company 'Avdeevskiy Coke-processing Works'

Trying to the end...

That´s why Russia should rather turn Lviv into a depopulated wasteland instead of letting it turn into an "independent" rump Ukraine.
If a single village in western Banderaland would join NATO/EU the West would claim victory.

The Mediazona graph

Had the Chinese done the same back in the time of the Iraq war, "counting" british KIA´s, I doubt that someone in the west had
believed the numbers.

Larry Johnson claims Russian KIA of 70-100 thousand. At the same time you never hear anything about Ukr losses over 400,000.
I do not know where he gets his numbers from. Looks to me like it is just a doubling of the Mediazona estimate with extra fluff
thrown in. You can bet your last centavo that the Mediazona figures are high end and not low end. The ratio of 1:4 does not make
any sense. Either the losses are comparable because of similar management and resources or they are very different. Russia has
been deliberately saving its men by not wasting resources on fast and sweeping territorial gains. You can see in Avdeevka a drawn
out process reflecting the Russian tactics of reducing casualties. By contrast the Kiev regime has been engaged in de facto human
wave attacks. When they can't use heavy armour, they send soldiers on foot in batches as if that is some sort of superior tactic.
This is not a guerilla war where small armed groups have effectiveness. This is a conventional war front. It is a turkey shoot
and not a stalemate.

People are pathologically fixated on the movement of the front. They think if it is not sweeping dozens of kilometers every day, then
it must be a balance of forces feature. Not in this case, clowns. It is a deliberate choice of the Russian command. Set up a
line with plenty of fortifications for peace of mind and have the enemy throw itself like waves on a rocky shore. This tactic is
also geopolitical in nature and a NATzO engagement tactic. The imagery of land grabbing is attenuated and NATzO spends itself
into shortages. People wonder why Putin did not act in 2014. Maybe being able to beat NATzO military supply chains was one of the
key reasons. The Russian military production is not a minor effort. Even if military plants were not demolished in the 1990s, they
still needed investment and especially the trained manpower. There is no draft for retired and dead workers.

The utter lack of appreciation for Russian military industrial capacity is why you have endless yammering about North Korean artillery
shells. Russia couldn't possibly make its own. The only reason Russia has any deals with North Korea is to pound in the last nail
in NATzO's coffin of delusion. Russia can make more than enough itself but if NATzO tries to go on a total war footing, then Russia can
get even more. Given the time scales involved for NATzO to ramp up production, the North Korean deal has no relevance for the
Ukrian war. It is a long term plan to deal with a potential NATzO attack.

IF ( A ) Russia military production high , economy good , Cauldron Meat- Grinder tactic working , NATO production low and economy in trouble THEN ( B ) Attrition tactic works , No capture of resources , static frontlines with no hurry , Destroy all military related infrastructure . If NOT ( A ) THEN NOT ( B ) . Particularly the " Destroy all military infrastructure . " Military related infrastructure : Bridges , Power , Rail , Road , Airfield , Communication , TV , Radio , Internet , Industry , Warship , Tunnels , Military and political apparatus and leadership .

It will represent a shithole populated by some 8 mln people

Still too much.

Russia couldn't possibly make its own.

Even western MSM had to admit lately that Russia is producing 20.000 rounds a day.
Propably the lower end of the real numbers. Someone (a source of Mercouris) claimed
that the production is now well over 1 Million rounds a month.

The ratio of 1:4 does not make any sense.

20:1 in favor of Russia is not even close to the reality.
Maybe at the frontlines in direct engagements, but even in the tactical rear the superiority
of the russian side in all means of destruction is overwhelming. The advantage gets bigger
and bigger the further away from the front you get.

This ammo shortage is very reminiscent of the collapse of the German eastern front. First a stall, then very tight ammo supplies. Then a fighting retreat, gradually deteriorating into a rout.

mnztr wrote:This ammo shortage is very reminiscent of the collapse of the German eastern front. First a stall, then very tight ammo supplies. Then a fighting retreat,  gradually deteriorating into a rout.

Disrupting the transportation lines is very important:


http://michalw.narod.ru/index-ZiemiKieleckiej.html

http://michalw.narod.ru/index-GL.html


Russians have done surprisingly little in this regard.


There are some Americans who want the money designated to be given to Ukraine, be instead used to help secure the land borders of the U.S.A.

Geraniums are in the air again.

2 or 3 mortar rounds a day

Is that a joke? There are teens in the US firing more mortar rounds a day.



BTR-82AT with all extras.

At least 15 people died as a result of chemical weapons poisoning of food by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This was stated by the head of the RKhBZ troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov , RIA Novosti reports .

“During a special military operation, 17 cases of the use of chemical weapons components by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to poison food products were recorded, which caused the death of at least 15 people,” Kirillov said, speaking at the session of the III Congress of Young Scientists.

The general clarified that the discovered chemical weapons components are “produced in only one country,” without specifying its name. According to him, we are talking about a very expensive substance.

On November 27, it was reported that Russia had received evidence of the transfer of chemicals from the United States to Ukraine . Deputy Head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Kirill Lysogorsky said that dangerous substances are transferred to soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as to foreigners fighting on their side.

Prior to this, adviser to the head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Yan Gagin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were using chemical weapons in the Artemovsk and Donetsk directions.

Earlier, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev assessed the risks of Ukraine losing control over biological objects.

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog/army/news/2023/11/28/21809293.shtml?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

ALAMO wrote:
Russkie presented an extreme pragmatism with this conflict. I am seriously impressed, as didn't expect them to be so much cynical.
Only by extrapolation, I would say they give a round shit about that.
In the final form, 404 will be a wasteland anyway. There is nothing in the western part of it that can sustain any kind of dreams of power.
There is no farming, no industry, no resources, but last but not least - there will be no people.
It will represent a shithole populated by some 8 mln people, where Bulgaria can be called a superpower in contrast.

Ironically, the only future Ukraine could have is with Russia. The West has shown they don't give a shit about Ukraine and that they'd gladly sacrifice every single Ukrainian man, woman and child to exhaust Russian resources just a tiny bit. The only country who could be interested in rebuilding the wasteland formerly known as Ukraine after the war is over is Russia, just like they are revitalising the areas newly integrated into the Russian Federation.

kvs wrote:The utter lack of appreciation for Russian military industrial capacity is why you have endless yammering about North Korean artillery
shells.   Russia couldn't possibly make its own.   The only reason Russia has any deals with North Korea is to pound in the last nail
in NATzO's coffin of delusion.  

Part of the reason, probably the main one, for the rapprochment Russia and the DPRK is geopolitics. Russia doesn't really need arty shells, but she does want to stick a finger into the eye of the neocons and their feckless satraps. NK will be glad to engage in some export sales and work towards getting the murkan monkey off its back. Rekindling old (and long neglected) ties with past allies is something that Russia needs to do more of, and peeling back the sanctions and economic isolation of an old ally that the arrogant West has long thought of as isolated and irrelevent will not go down well within the Washington beltway or the hallowed halls of Thinktankistan. Let those feckless bastards choke on their angst...