Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

JohninMK wrote:That's an estimated manpower loss of around 3700 in a week.

That is lower then it used to be. For a long time it was around 5,000 per week (+700 per day).

Hole wrote:

Ukrainian sources appear to have confirmed the use of North Korean ballistic missiles

Which makes me doubt the whole story.
One pic of debris. Made somewhere. No chain of evicence whatsoever.
Only Ukros as "witnesses".
But: This is confirmed proof!!!!!!!!!


Now any video of a Iskander hitting something turns into "NK missile".

For whatever it is worth, read that the NK's had made a copy of the Iskander that wasn't limited to the 500 km range (Treaty) and that a few where given to the Russians for testing (900 km). Again who knows for sure.

mnztr wrote:Has anyone come across any reliable data on how much oil and gas is in the borders of Ukraine? (Including annexed  regions). I am wondering if at the end of the day this is another oil war. The Euros seem way to vehement to me, and i wonder if this gamble was to get Ukraine into the EU so they could fullfill their dreams of being energy independant.I have heard that there were significant oil discoveries in Ukraine but no data on estimates.

Well it was about oil in the sense that they want to weaken, attack and plunder Russia.
The Ukraine does have some oil and gas. But the Ukraine was about terrorising the Russian half of the population in the hope Russia would take a hit. With the plan being America could then terrorise other places whilst Russia was stretched militarily. Its also about separating Europe from Russia. Read the American "think tanks" ie the actual controllers of US govts. There is a big topic called the Central Island Theory (written by these US think tanks). which says that if Europe, Russia and China got together, America would be pretty irrelevant.
America "exists" to plunder and terrorise other countries. Thei think tanks talk about "full spectrum dominance", the "Project for the New American Century" and the "Washington Consensus". Its basically Nazi Germany, for the 21st Century, just far more snide and sneaky and less in your face.

America hates Russia for many reasons. It is an alternative ideology. It has its own resources. It refuses to use the US dollar as its reverse (which funds oppression by America around the World). It won't let America treat it as its bitch. It is the ONLY country in the World not afraid of America. Even China is cautious with America as its military is only starting to grow. So basically, unless America gets a hiding, it will continue to terrorise the World.

Probably the events which caused the Ukraine coup and the inevitable war were twofold.
Firstly Russia refused to allow a US puppet like Yeltsin to be in charge. And second, Russia decided to break away from US dollar hegemony ie paying Roman style tribute to America.
The third reason, America was always going to continue trying to destroy Russia just to feast on its assets and then turn attention to China, and absolute global domination.

Thankfully the satans of Washington are being put in their place.

Russia is winning, the only qualm I have is this Belgorod business

It's weakness on the part of Ukraine

But also a plan to harm Putin before the election

There will be greater attacks unfortunately and they will plan the big one closer to March

The Ukrainians will ramp up attacks on Russian cities, and unfortunately Putin will have to take action

My concern is that right now, the troops have sufficient numbers , weapons, vehicles to start a large scale offensive to push Ukraine along a deeper buffer zone to protect Belgorod, Crimea, and Rostov

I mean they already killed civilians and they will attempt to kill more

This will put pressure to prematurely launch the large scale offensive, and in the end, Russia can reach Kharkov, Zaporozhye, and Dnepr as short term solution to protect Russian civilians

But by going on the offensive before sufficient procurement of jammers will mean there will be a large wave of Russian casualties as the new buffer zone is enforced

I fear the offensive is already agreed upon to coincide with Taiwan election January 13

The original plan was to wait until March, but intelligence shows that Ukraine will carry out a campaign to sow chaos in Russia

So much so, Dmitry Polyanskiy at the UN said: "well they made their choice! Then the "buffer zone" will go further and further to the west and south of Russia. As much as is required to ensure the safety of our cities and our citizens, even if Ukraine no longer remains.

We will not tolerate a western-sponsored Russophobic neo-nazi hornets nest on our border. This should be clear to everyone."

Guys this is the UN ambassador of Russia

We are on the brink of big arrows, but I hope for the troops sake, everything is well planned

I think to save as many lives, the objectives should be limited:

From Shebekino and Valuyki, Drive onto Kupyansk, but do not March on Kharkov yet, maybe Seversky Donets and Stariy Saltov can be the northernmost point to hold, but Kupyansk would be fine

In Avdeevka, stay as is, keep working, but do not drive directly on the city, just improve positions, dig in, and keep working on Ukros

From Bakhmut, just reach the outskirts of Chasov Yar and hold around Ivanovskoye, clear out Bogdanovka, and take all to the north including Bogdanovka, and Grigorovka

In the south, begin a limited offensive to clear Rabotino and drive onto Orekhov

With these limited objectives, a better buffer zone can be formed, distracting Ukrainians from hitting Belgorod and Crimea and making them focus on fighting the army

This is perfectly achievable, and would be a big arrow, but would not cause horrible casualties, nor would require approaching large cities

Reserves would be committed, and there will be losses, but basically you'd eliminate the threat to Russian cities and Ukraine would need even longer range weapons to strike at Crimea and Belgorod

Again who knows for sure.

Take a look at the shit Kirby threw up today.
The whole thing is made up to score some easy political points at home,
declare a new axis of evil, put new sanctions on Russia, NK and other "evildoers"
and force Congress to give the 60+ Billion to Biden... I mean Banderaland.

Could someone tell me what happened to the 40 or so percent of people who voted for the Party of Regions? Did they all become Bandera loving nationalist or maybe they're too scared to say or do anything?

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Could someone tell me what happened to the 40 or so percent of people who voted for the Party of Regions? Did they all become Bandera loving nationalist or maybe they're too scared to say or do anything?

They lived in the Donbas, Crimea and the rest of the Novorossiyia. Over half are liberated and the rest soon.

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:this is the same about Russia "abandoning" the residents of the City of Kherson last year. Russia offered to each of them the possibility to go to the safer russian controlled areas. Most of the residents did not want and many of them were later sent in the meatgrinder when the Ukrainian army conscripted them.

Oh really?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/world/europe/kherson-ukraine-russia.html

Only about 30,000 to 60,000 people, based on rough estimates by Ukrainian activists, were left in Kherson city from a prewar population of more than 250,000, and many remained defiant in the face of Russian attempts to turn the region into part of Russia.

The city had like 10-20% of its population left when the Russians left. Where do you think these people went to? Even the local police forces switched to the Russian side. Do you think they sticked around? Especially after Bucha.

Practical R&D

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:The more I think about it the more I would like to spit on the graves of Gorbachev and Shevardnadze for the intermediate missile treaty and the ban on the RSD-10 Pioneer missile.

Don't worry about this too much. At the rate things are going the Rubezh will enter service this decade.
Just think about it. Russia just finished replacing all the road mobile solid rocket ICBMs. While the factory will still have to replace the ground launched missiles, and produce SLBMs for the Navy, there simply isn't that much work left for them to do. So what do you think will happen?

additional footage RF January 2nd strikes



Everyone laughs at that puny MT-LB, untill it's filled with Kaboom and is rolling towards you without a driver.  

RF Remote controlled MTLB detonates at Ukrainian trench at Novomikhailovsky

THE ENTIRE PLATOON SURRENDERED AS POWs!

Another addition to the exchange pool. These soldiers surrendered as an entire platoon after a prolonged battle.

Among them are those with ideological convictions, mobilized individuals who were at home just a week ago but were thrust into a vehicle and taken to the battleground, and various others. However, collectively, they made the singular right decision - to surrender to our troops and cease thoughtlessly risking their lives for the Ze regime.

As evident, there's no mockery; the wounded are receiving assistance, and everything is calm.

Arrow wrote:"The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, proposed that the United States lift sanctions from his relatives in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners; he handed over the list of prisoners to former American intelligence officer Scott Ritter, who arrived in Grozny the day before, RIA Novosti reports."

Any other sources? Wtf.

If the Russians are going to start a new major offensive you would see signs of build up in terms of support materials and what not, none of that has happened

A cruise missile is a mini plane, the wings makes it fly. A ballistic missile goes against gravity at a speed of few mach, nothing comparable.

A cruise missile flying faster than mach 5 is better off without wings. The Space Shuttle has wings to provide lift for landing on a conventional airfield, but it has the added feature of creating drag that allows it to so down in the atmosphere with a shallow flight angle so it spends thousands and thousands of kilometres of flight time in the atmosphere.

A hypersonic cruise missile gets body lift and having wings would be a problem rather than an advantage because it would just create drag that requires more engine power to compensate for to maintain speed.

A cruise missile flys an unpredictable flight path like a plane, it flies level and straight but can turn or climb or descend when required. A ballistic weapon is like a rock you throw... you throw it and it goes up and then comes down on a parabolic flight path... this makes its flight path predictable even if it does steer and correct its flight trajectory in the last few seconds to ensure it hits its target.

There is no way to work out what the Iskander or Kinzhal or V1 is going to hit.

Garry, there is now a fair amount of good stuff on the Iskander here that will be lost and hard to reference as the thread evolves.

Is there a case for moving it to the Iskander thread?

I will have a rummage through but I remember saying quite a bit of what I am say here over there. But certainly videos and some comments could be put in both threads...

I will have a look and move a few things.

Simply stop lying, and finally make people to understand the scale of this tragedy.
This is so fukin Orwellian, that any normal human lacks the words ...

Isn't the irony delicious though... the amazing support Kiev has gotten from the US and the EU and the west in general to help them with their future is killing their population and reducing the amount of land they will have access to moving forward.

Ukraine supporters want this conflict to go on forever now they realise they can't win, which essentially means no more Ukraine will be left.

Those who support Russia and Putin like myself suggest they should have surrendered in 2014 and they might still have the Crimea and all their other territory.

I would prefer they surrendered long ago but love the irony that because they didn't the people of Crimea and Donbass and Lugansk and their two other regions are going to get their freedom and a decent future now as part of the Russian Federation.

What is Kiev going to get... well two more super powers... three if you count them all together as the collective west, US, and EU... to blame all their problems on...

And it is ironic because this conflict is actually managing to kill more Ukrainians than any famine ever did and it is pretty clear the west is the main cause again.

There's a concern that Europe wouldn't be able to sustain a war with these prices. They could bankrupt any country before troops are even prepared for combat.

But think of the MIC profits... they will make billions...

Comparing dumb HE 152 shell to programmable 30mm isn't exactly fair, they not only differ in construction but also serve two totally diffenret purposes.

Who said it is a dumb shell?

The benefits of this to North Korea's missile program are huge. Kharkov serves as a testing ground for effectiveness.

Passing on combat information... how easy is it to use, reload, operate, any potential upgrades they might consider... this is very good for both sides.

One can be sorry for the workers, but since they were producing military equipment they are a legitimate target in time of war.

They kill children, but complain when Russia hits military targets and their own defense missiles hit civilian targets...

Simplify the Iskander by making it a dumb ballistic missile with a good optival guidance kit. No need for the expensive quasi-ballistic manoeuvring stuff 99% of the time.

But it is not expensive... it is heat resistant control fins in the rocket motor exhaust that deflect the rocket to manouver the weapon in flight.

The R-73 uses something similar with bits of metal thrust into the rocket exhaust to turn the missile in flight as it is launched so it can go high off boresight as it is launched. (most missiles can't turn hard off the pylon because the fins and control surfaces can't apply much force when it is flying subsonic off the wing pylon).

Less costly so you fire more. Some will be intercept but who cares as long as at least 80% goes through.

It would actually cost more to fit wings and strakes with control surfaces to manouver the missile, so the opposite.

I guess the label "Manufactured in DPRK" somehow survived the supersonic impact and 1T warhead. Its possible Russia is getting parts of the missile built in DPRK to increase supply of it and focus on building more of the Kinzhal variant. Iskander is a good weapon but the Kinzhal variant is a silver bullet. Just a Mig-31 patrol over the red sea was enough to push a CBG further away from Lebanon.

It makes sense for Russia to get weapons from North Korea and test them... that would be in Russian interests and NK interests to see how their weapons work in a real combat situation.

Unfortunately the west also have interests and it is their interest to denigrate any Russian weapon that might appear to be good or capable.

We have been told that Chinese ships and missiles and tanks and stealth fighters are all better than Russian systems, but that is more about trying to discredit Russia... if it actually worked and people started respecting Chinese weapons they would likely start saying they are untested and useless in a real war.

The key thing to take out of this is that they can no longer claim western stuff is better than Russian stuff by any margin of superiority.

The Euros seem way to vehement to me, and i wonder if this gamble was to get Ukraine into the EU so they could fullfill their dreams of being energy independant.I have heard that there were significant oil discoveries in Ukraine but no data on estimates.

The money and weapons and ammo they have committed to this conflict means they need a win more than the US does... Kiev likely has already signed everything away to the west to get them to help them so they are fighting for nothing now.

If the Russians are going to start a new major offensive you would see signs of build up in terms of support materials and what not, none of that has happened

If the Russians are planning an offensive I don't think they will give Kiev and Washington 6 months advanced warning and then harp on about it every day till the dead line is up and then talk about the delays right up until the day it is actually launched.

Garry plz....

It's not about giving advance warning, sending a large force in us about more than merely getting the guys to point a.

You need to assemble the supplies, support and other materials and gather it to provide your army group the appropriate infrastructure.

Blood and plasma alone cannot be left for months it's got a small shelf life, you for example only moves these up when you are ready to go.

And an assaulting force needs blood and plasma reserves close by in their medical support bases.

They can do that without making it obvious.

They appear to have enough forces in the region for the purposes of a counter offensive.

But you keep believing they will telegraph an attack.