Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

Water isn't an issue

Judging by the endless stream of videos and pics of Ukro trenches flodded with water... it is an issue for them.
At least in the raining seasons.

gliding kit

Standard UMPK kit. Maybe there are smaller differences between some kits because of different producers.

India Buys ‘Majority Stakes’ In Ukrainian Engine

Like booking a place on the Titanic after she sunk.

Enemy strikes against the civilian population of the #Belgorod region continued.

Most damage was done by debris. Some sources claim a Pantsir-SM system was used for the first time to
shot down incoming rockets.

it is prohibited to charge fees for housing and communal services

How nice of them, after the regime stopped paying pensions and salaries to state employees.

Peskov has announced measures to ensure the security of Belgorod

Some people take it as a green light on Kharkov

But I doubt it

Kharkov is a city of millions of people, with multiple approaches to it

Trying to take it in a frontal assault would be suicide

You can't cut it off as the number of approaches are literally built in rings

So you'd be a sitting duck on the outer ring road

It's better to storm Kupyansk directly from the north, and sever the connection between Kharkov and Donbass

I am not sure what to do about Kharkov, but I think the sound thing to do is to proceed on Slavyansk and end the Kupyansk-Oskol links

Some debris on the ground are clearly composite stages of Pantsir rockets.

Propably the only unsolvable problem with AD.
At least until we switch to that:

But instead they buy a Ukrainian company

Maybe they hope to get some refund from Russia later.
Or a share of the company under new management.

Hole wrote:

But instead they buy a Ukrainian company

Maybe they hope to get some refund from Russia later.
Or a share of the company under new management.

Or a cheap way to get hold of IP for their own industries. The irony could be that it was funded (cash?) by profits from the Indians onselling Russian crude.

It seems we have a clearer picture of why fighting is spread along the entire line

Russia is mauling Ukrainian manpower

4 large Ukrainian groupings exist at the moment: Khortitsa-Syrsky (150,000 troops), Tavria/Donetsk-Tarnavsky (240,000 troops), Sever-Naev (100,000), and Odessa-Moskalev (40,000)

To place them geographically, Khortitsa under command of General Syrsky was holding from Bakhmut to Kupyansk. The incompetence of General Syrsky burned most of his reserves in senseless counterattacking near Klesheevka and Yagodny against the VDV earlier in 2023

Because of the foolhardiness of Syrsky, He has run out of reserve manpower, and Naevs Northern Grouping, has sent half the combat power from Sumy, Chernigov, Kharkov region to plug Syrskys gaping defense

It is the 25th CAA of Russian Army which is banging Dill heading to Chasov Yar and which is causing problems for Syrsky and Naev. This grouping along with the 6th CAA is going to Chasov Yar and there are serious problems here for the VSU

Dill were forced to stop their Zaporozhye counterattack. And urgently patch up the holes at the front.

It is believed that the Tavria group of 37 brigades lost 16, which completely lost their combat effectiveness.

In other words, by September 2023, the Ukrainians were left with only one intact group, Donetsk, numbering about 100 thousand. Well, partly Khortytsia. And it is in these directions that the Russian army has been conducting the most active military operations since September.

At the same time, a big surprise for the dill was that our command deployed the 2nd combined arms army to Avdeevka, strengthening the already powerful 8th. It is also one of the most combat-ready formations in the Russian army. She is now fighting north of Avdeevka from Krasnogorovka.

The Eighth Army, having received reinforcements, immediately increased pressure in other sectors - today Maryinka has already been taken, battles for Novomikhailovka have begun, and Ugledar is obviously next in line. Or rather, the northern front of the dill defense is there.

So we know that right now 25th, 6th, 8th, and 2nd are currently committed to battle and are putting hohols in a grinder

We await the introduction of 20th and the 1st to come to Kupyansk from the north

The 25th CAA is handling Chasov Yar

6th CAA will handle Minkovka

This is the path to the north and south of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk agglomerations, defended by Tavria and Khortitsa although mainly Tavria



Khortitsa has a real problem, as they are facing breakthroughs to Kupyansk, Senkovo, and Borovaya

There's not much Syrsky can do, except maybe women conscripts and invalids at this point - anything will do, Zaluzhny understands if the Russian army breaks him, he will have to effect a massive withdrawal of Khortitsa and Tavria



The main problem for Khortitsa: Liman

If Russia introduces more of its combined army groups , it is over for them



Finally , the path of the 2nd and 8th armies

Heading to Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo/Ugledar

I remind, there are 3 or 4 army groupings which have not been committed

The most decisive actions will take place as winter draws to a close

Namely arrival to the gates of the Donetsk/Dnepr boundary

In the Zaporozhye direction, the main battle today is around the conditional bridgehead Rabotino - Verbovoe. There are almost two brigades of dill sitting in the cauldron here. Ours these days are continuously attacking almost the entire perimeter. The most important thing is that our paratroopers blocked the N-08 Orekhov-Mariupol highway and are attacking along it in the direction of the regional center of Orekhov. Having created a real threat of encirclement of the enemy near Rabotino. Since the New Year, almost a kilometer has been walked along this route in the direction of Orekhov.

In addition, from the village of Kopani, our paratroopers from the 76th division entrenched themselves along the Orekhov-Tokmak highway, passing along the outskirts of Rabotino. There are very tough oncoming battles here. Over the past 24 hours, at the Rabotino-Verbovoye border, forty enemies and three armored vehicles were destroyed, according to official data...

*** remember the 58th army was mainly working here, along with 5th CAA, and some CMD units

Now they are gone - the 76th VDV is now pushing on Rabotino toward Orekhkov for Zaporozhye

Where have 5th CAA, 58th CAA, and 49th CAA gone? They were replaced by 3rd CAA and the 4th CAA newly raised from Zaporozhye and Kherson regions

We can only assume it is those 3 CAA (58, 5, and 49th) which are ominously posted at Belgorod

Waiting for the order, it seems indeed a Kharkov operation is coming, although I believe the objective is the northern approach towards Kupyansk , through the R79 highway

dionis wrote:The 1st Tank Donation Army (which should be stripped of their guards title) IIRC right now is struggling to take Sinkovka, which is a simple village compared to Marinka or Avdeevka.

IMO Russia has little more than a skeleton crew in Belarus, Sumy and Kharkov. If they didn't, Western Intel would have told the world by now. Just like pre-SMO.

Wrong on all counts

1st GTA is not in Sinkovka, check your sources - the VDV is the main actor in Sinkovka, 1st GTA has not been seriously active for a while now and the reasons were stated

Khortitsya group has been devastated, there are no means to defend, as Syrsky burned his own reserves on stupid counterattacks at Klesheevka

Attacks on Kupyansk won't be renewed until the time to push on Kharkov region comes spring

Right now 25th and 6th are staging for push to Chasov Yar and Minkovka

The focus of the CAAs of Russia is to kill as many troops as possible in all groupings

The results:

1. Khortitsa: has been rendered combat ineffective

2. Tavria: remains active, has been split in two with NovoMikhailovka and Ocheretino thrusts, has lost 16 out of 38 brigades

3. Sever: has been severely depleted, half of its brigades have been transferred to Syrsky at Kupyansk, but they have also been wiped out, only few forces are defending the area

4. Odessa: this is the main force which will probably be committed at Krynky, although if Russia moves past Rabotino, they will most likely be directed to Orekhov, as Russia wants the town


***1st GTA, 20TH CAA, 58th CAA, 49th CAA, and 5th CAA remain available for operations, currently 4 CAA are running operations from Kupyansk to Ugledar

From Krynky to Gulyaipolye,  there are assorted combat units, with marines replacing the 58th at Dnieper, VDV at Rabotino, 3rd and 4th CAA are also there from Verbovoe to Gulyaipolye

There are many forces available for maneuver,  but Russia is waiting for obvious reasons: 500,000 conscripts are going to be introduced to fortify Ukraines depleted army groups

-----

Western ISR is not as much a game changer, that's why counteroffensive failed

Western satellites failed to detect the first Russian lines of defense, and 300,000+ troops along the Tokmak-Berdyansk defensive line, or the so called Surovikin line

They basically focused on Russian maskirovka, giant trenches that were empty or emitted fake cell phone signals with skeleton storm z platoons,

While the main force was camouflaged and positioned 100km north of the dragons teeth

Russia already knows how to deceive Western ISR

I want to expound on the failure of western ISR in the counteroffensive some more:



Here were the first MAXAR images which focused on the most visible part of the surovikin line

The brosinters which got outsourced ISR job , told Ukrainian Jaeger units that Russian heavy defenses were far back by Tokmak

In fact all western publications and intelligence groups did



Here is a perfect example of those fake trenches, an emitter station is there broadcasting, and Ukro artillery got wasted hitting those positions far in the rear




But western ISR never even saw these positions in front of Rabotino

We all remember when Ukros ran into first real resistance in front of the town, and everyone was shocked because BROsint never had disclosed the presence of any Russian defenses there

It seems Russia had hidden huge forces in those treelines which MAXAR never saw

We know the rest of the story

Ukraine's Armed Forces prepare for new Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast soon – The Telegraph
Ukrainska Pravda

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/04/ukraine-braces-for-russia-offensive-kharkiv-war/?fbclid=IwAR2DgNwrnBqVEWBt05avX-_Mxafu_8N4e9gizyM_X6dSrz07NxQQDdCPAj0

Actually right on cue:

BROSINT detects potential Russian offensive on Kharkov

Lol as I said, it won't be Kharkov, it will be Kupyansk from the north, but BROSINT gonna BROSINT

Russia is mauling Ukrainian manpower

Was the plan for the last 20 months.

We can only assume it is those 3 CAA (58, 5, and 49th) which are ominously posted at Belgorod

Some sources claim there are 4 Army Corps in the Belgorod region.

right now is struggling to take Sinkovka

Why should they take the town fast if they can kill more enemy fighters by doing it slow?
Some people still don´t get it even after roughly 20 months of the same game.

500,000 conscripts

Untrained conscripts

Backman wrote:^ Very interesting. And the whole strategy made good propaganda too. Because Russia wasted them before they even got to the main lines of defense.

They must have been making fake trenches with a rototiller or something. Just rototill 6 inches deep and the satellite will assume its a trench.

Yep basically,  they created visible defenses for MAXAR and planet labs morons to focus on

While real defenses were way ahead in treelines

At the same time they goaded HIMARS to hit empty trenches and responded with counter battery by putting cell phone and other signal emitters

It shows you can deceive western ISR quite easily by using foliage, seasonal climate conditions, and deceptive decoys

----

At the same time, we are hearing now that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin got calibrated

He has disappeared for days, and the Pentagon is saying it was cancer, but this happened when Russia pummeled the NATO base in Ukraine with Kinzhal

Looks like Lloyd Austin is in serious condition

----

The first reports of Ukrainian refugees are hitting Vkontakte , Telegram,  and Ru media

Apparently Ukrainians are fleeing because Russia will not extradite them to Ukraine

Meanwhile EU states are going to start rounding them up and sending them to Ukraine

It seems there are forecasts of up to 500,000 new refugees in Russia in the near future, but the true figure could be much higher as more and more people flee to Russia