Russian special military operation in Ukraine #54

The topwar.ru comment section is filled with comments calling the Baltic countries a useful corridor to kalingrad.

lthough the production of glide kits is a bottleneck

Maybe in Britain.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are ready to join their mighty forces

Make it 105 instead of 100 tanks. 

The " Dragon teeth , " means Ukrainians are not going to advance with their mentally challenged Tanks or Abrams Cookware , past these lines ? If French troops open fire in Ukraine against Russia , then article 5 , will not apply to France ? What you mean Russia can shoot at them and they will not fire back ?

Satellite image of the consequences of a strike (https://t.me/milinfolive/117922) by Ukrainian kamikaze drones on the territory of an aircraft repair plant in Taganrog on the night of March 9.

You can see at least four arrivals, two of which occurred on the roof of the repair shop, one in the corner of a separate hangar, and another one exactly at the location of the A-50 AWACS aircraft that had previously been parked there.

This can be understood from early satellite images, obviously from information from which the enemy planned his attack. However, both A-50s were removed from open parking in advance, which contributed to their preservation.





https://t.me/milinfolive/118014?single

What was published above about the attack on Taganrog is a contribution to the topic of the alleged losses of Russian A-50s.
As you can see, the rumors were not confirmed.

^

The information NATO gets is not real-time ? May have something to do with satellite orbits passing . Russia dodging the bullet , as it were .. They may have good Intel on satellites orbiting ? Can geostationary satellites observe ? Are there any over the area ? Maybe they were just lucky then ! Can planes be constantly moved ? A few hundred meters and drones won't find them ......

NATO can give the best information it has. But that does not mean that Russia has its methods to avoid attacks.

It was a Patriot system, not an S-300

Maybe that was on purpose... they seem to have hit it with Iskander rather than a Smerch rocket that you might expect.

The difference is probably about 500kgs of explosives in terms of the payload... something they would use if they wanted to kill the people operating the system and support equipment... which in the case of an S-300 system would be Ukrainians most likely, while with a Patriot system they would likely be Americans.

A lot of these videos, destruction of Patriots, S-300, NASAMS, HIMARS etc.
They are "old" videos from up 6 months ago. For example in the famous HIMARS video, the launcher is surrounded by yellow wheat fields, i.e. it was destroyed by summer.

Mistaking a Patriot battery for an S-300 battery is rather unlikely.... I suspect the message was clear to those in the US paying attention... we are killing your guys and destroying your super expensive super weapons... proving Patriot can be smashed with Iskander renders it to be a not so great export item... this is costing them men and money... no wonder the recent shift to China... the Bear is dangerous... but of course they will find the Dragon is no easy beat either.

Perhaps one of these?

It is hard to compare because they have a range of different payloads for different bomb types in different weight classes... an FAB-500 does not create a massive fireball, it is just a HE fragmentation bomb, but there is also penetration bombs like OFAB-500 and incendiary bombs like the OFZAB-500 or the fuel air explosive bombs which would make big fireball explosions like the ODAB-500PM which has the HE equivalent of 1,000kgs of HE despite the bomb being half that weight.

Comparing one explosion to another is tricky because obviously a ZB-500PT incendiary tank with glide kit guidance would be hard to distinguish from a FAB-1500 bomb.

A penetrating 1,500kg bomb might not appear to do as much damage but much of the damage is underground in the structure they hit, where a fuel air explosive might have just scorched the surface of.

They have an enormous range of ordinance to use in this conflict and they will be monitoring the results to see what is most effective and what is not so effective so they know what they need to replace in stocks and what they could probably not bother making any more as newer systems perform better.

Am I wrong in thinking that an equivalent Russian S-400 unit would have ShRADS with it?

US SHORADS are not the same as Russian SHORADS... it would probably be a Gepard and some stingers if you are lucky.

They don't really have TOR or Pantsir like systems.

All those months parked at the rear doing nothing and they didn't give them all top covers or side slates (only one of them has the latter)

To be fair they probably didn't want to make them heavier.

On the positive side the crew can brew up a cup of tea while they wait for the engineers to sort this out before the attack drones arrive...

Rare humanity on the frontline.

For every nazi there are likely hundreds of guys trapped in a bad situation just trying to keep alive and retain their humanity.

Sadly the tit for tat violence of war makes many forget and just focus on revenge for past violence.

A decoy?

That is always a possibility but they likely located the radar electronically and sent a drone to kill it.

It is expected that several dozens of people will be added to the US embassy staff.

Which makes the US embassy in Kiev a legitimate military target.

If you use Ambulances to carry troops on the battlefield then they become legitimate targets too.

Fortifications are an important component of them.

Most fortifications will withstand artillery fire, but 1,500kg HE bombs will reduce most fortifications most of the time.

If French troops open fire in Ukraine against Russia , then article 5 , will not apply to France ? What you mean Russia can shoot at them and they will not fire back ?

The French are under the delusion that the Russian soldiers wouldn't dare fire on French soldiers openly operating as French soldiers in the Ukraine.

Of course they are very much mistaken and I suspect the Russians would rather enjoy doing to the French what they have been doing to French special forces all this time.

Article 5 does not apply to soldiers in another country... hense US troops fighting Saddam in Iraq could not demand HATO member Turkey support them and their various attacks and invasions through the last few years on various countries in the region.

Can geostationary satellites observe ? Are there any over the area ? Maybe they were just lucky then ! Can planes be constantly moved ? A few hundred meters and drones won't find them ......

Geostationary satellites operate over the equator and are very high up and would view regions in this conflict at a very shallow angle...

Not ideal.

NATO can give the best information it has. But that does not mean that Russia has its methods to avoid attacks.

Plus Russia can use this to set up traps and bait and switch, and just generally screw around with them.

CNN reports Russian bomb 'changes the balance of power', 03.10.2024.

The most hilarious part of every single Wunderwaffle story released by the western shitstream is how it ends.
Usually with realizing, that Russkie have an equivalent to each of those.
Only five times more powerful, ten times cheaper, and twenty times the number.
It is getting boring, honestly.

So even CNN finally admitting it. And a German company finally breaking ground and will produce 200,000 shells per year That's less than Russia produces in a month. It seems Europe, UK, USA combined won't be able to match Russian production even in the next few years.


CNN
—
Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, a key advantage ahead of what is expected to be another Russian offensive in Ukraine later this year.

Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

The US military set a goal to produce 100,000 rounds of artillery a month by the end of 2025 — less than half of the Russian monthly output — and even that number is now out of reach with $60 billion in Ukraine funding stalled in Congress, a senior Army official told reporters last week

What we are in now is a production war,” a senior NATO official told CNN. “The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war.”

Officials say Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side. The ratio is worse in some places along the 600-mile front, according to a European intelligence official.

The shortfall comes at perhaps the most perilous moment for Ukraine’s war effort since Russia first marched on Kyiv in February 2022. US money for arming Ukraine has run out and Republican opposition in Congress has effectively halted giving any more.

Meanwhile, Russia recently took the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka and is widely seen as having the initiative on the battlefield. Ukraine is struggling not just with ammunition but also growing manpower shortages on the front lines.

The US and its allies have given Ukraine a number of highly sophisticated systems, including the M-1 Abrams tank and, soon, F-16 fighter jets. But military analysts say the war will likely be won or lost based on who fires the most artillery shells.

“The number one issue that we’re watching right now is the munitions,” the NATO official said. “It’s those artillery shells, because that’s where Russia really [is] mounting a significant production advantage and mounting a significant advantage on the battlefield.”

Russian war machine in ‘full gear’
Russia is running artillery factories “24/7” on rotating 12-hour shifts, the NATO official said. About 3.5 million Russians now work in the defense sector, up from somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million before the war. Russia is also importing ammunition: Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells last year — “probably more than that,” the official said — and North Korea provided at least 6,700 containers of ammunition carrying millions of shells.

Russia has “put everything they have in the game,” the intelligence official said. “Their war machine works in full gear.”

A rough equivalent in the US would be if President Joe Biden invoked the Defense Production Act, a US official said, which gives the president power to order companies to produce equipment expeditiously to support the nation’s national defense.

European nations are trying to make up the shortfall. A German defense company announced last month that it plans to open an ammunition factory in Ukraine that it said will produce hundreds of thousands of 155mm caliber bullets each year. In Germany, the same company broke ground on a new factory expected to eventually produce around 200,000 artillery shells per year

Full article
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html

@treugilniklpr writes:

49.919486,36.278880

There are reports about a night arrival at the Kharkov airport hotel.

According to the information from colleagues’ channels, at the time of arrival the hotel was occupied by foreigners.

We hope that it was by the French and the Poles.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/91160?single

Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

And this is only the beginning.
Russia can just trade next hundreds of thousands rounds from its friendly countries like Iran and North Korea.
Not to even mention the latest news, that - mysteriously correlated in time - China ceased to export explosives grade cotton to the west. At all.
And that the very first 122mm cal ammunition suspiciously similar to the Chinese produced appeared in the hands of Russkie. Accidentally, of course.

And now try to imagine, that the very same sick bastard warmongers are trying to push another conflict with China.

The topwar.ru comment section is filled with comments calling the Baltic countries a useful corridor to kalingrad.

If you had told me 20 years ago, or even 12 years ago that Crimea would be Russian again I would have laughed at you while also wishing the west would be that stupid.

Turns out the greed of the west means almost anything is on the table as those buffoons keep saying.

With the CFE agreements gone and the INF agreements gone and open skies gone when this conflict in the Ukraine ends the west, which means the HATO countries and the EU countries need to sit down and create some binding agreements... and if they don't or there is no agreement because Russia is not handing out cheap energy and resources so they can then buy the finished products back from the Europeans at a huge markup, then there is going to be a very unstable situation for some time.

When the EU/western diplomats snubbed the invitation to the Kremlin to be told not to interfere in the upcoming Russian elections... well it makes you wonder what they are there for.... it seems to get access to Russian dissidents to upend the Russian democracy any way they can.

This means that for Russia if there are to be no agreements with Europe or the west then there is no value in having any diplomatic missions in the west.

Russia wont go crawling back to these countries as their economies tank so any prime real estate they give up will likely be upgraded to try to get them to return when they realise what they did and for whom.

Ironically if Trump gets elected communication with the US might be better with their European neighbours.

Funny that before the conflict in the Ukraine HATO was claiming expansion of HATO made Europe safer, but now it seems to be making Russia want to invade all of HATO... how does that logic make sense.

Russia wont invade HATO countries, but if HATO countries want to join the fight then they add themselves to the target list and because they are active members of HATO then tactical nukes become an option to stop escalation from spiralling out of control.

A bit like the slap to the face of a hysterical woman or man.

Of course in this case if they hit you back you kill them because they have friends with guns that are totally unstable but wont want to get into an open gun fight with you.

If you don't do that then their escalation is going to get you to nuclear weapons anyway and like the conflict in the Ukraine... it is always best to get the first shot in, because you might not see their shots coming...

And now try to imagine, that the very same sick bastard warmongers are trying to push another conflict with China.

Russia has nothing against Taiwan, but I am sure they will support China in every way they can including intel and weapons and energy and food so China can weather the mega sanctions the US tries to impose.

The hilarious thing is that if the US forces SWIFT to kick out China... well they wont be able to, because if they did then BRICS will set up an alternative not based in Europe and the rest of the world will likely switch to that.

Ironically including western companies if they want to continue to buy things from China and I rather suspect they do.

Western companies will likely move to India, which will be good for India so I understand, but up to a point and then they can take over the factories themselves... India needs very special laws that give them IP rights to products produced on their territory...

If French troops open fire in Ukraine against Russia , then article 5 , will not apply to France ? 

You can´t go into another country and attack someone and then scream for help from NATO
after the attacked defend themselves.

By the way, the French have ammo for maybe a week of hostilities.

Russia appears on track 

My guess is that the sole thing than nano Napleon is trying, is to push Russkie out of Africa.
He is not capable of doing so, but can create some kind of political leverage using other European stupid enough to catch that bait.

GarryB wrote:
The hilarious thing is that if the US forces SWIFT to kick out China... well they wont be able to, because if they did then BRICS will set up an alternative not based in Europe and the rest of the world will likely switch to that.

The Russians already have a system, using the SWIFT file format as well, so a relatively easy move out of the Belgian version.

franco wrote:"According to the statistics kept by our security forces, from February 2022 to the present, the losses of NATO countries are 121 officers and 96 sergeants.
In addition, there are more than 270 “vacationers” and 6,894 private military personnel.

So that's 217 serving and 270 serving but on leave, so 487 with an unknown number of lower ranks, certainly in the first figure.

Probably most in AD and sea operations (Odessa area).

Difficult to keep below the radar in their own countries but seemingly successful in doing so to date.

The first one seems to have hit something a bit different to the second, or it was a different type of bomb.

Bit of a puzzle this Russian 'casualty'.

British journalists from newspaper The Sun wanted to make a nice report about the Challenger 2 tank in Ukraine, but it sank in the mud during a demonstration run for them. They had to call a second tank of the same model to pull the first one out of the quagmire.

"Even just on the training exercises, we've seen the main problem that the Challenger’s been facing here in Ukraine, and that [is] its mobility. It keeps getting stuck in the mud. And if you have a look at the terrain, it’s this soft, deep, rich, black soil, that’s been proving problematic for it in this war," the correspondent said.

https://t.me/geopolitics_live/18271