Russian special military operation in Ukraine #54

MD
@distant_earth83
The capture of the village by the units of the troop grouping “Center” was announced on March 19. From this moment, the combat situation along the line of contact will change.

What’s important about the capture of Orlovka?

Firstly, the most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area, including the 3rd OShBr (formerly “Azov,” a terrorist organization), the 110th OMBr, and parts of the 109th TrO brigade, have retreated from Orlovka with heavy losses. Secondly, the capture of Orlovka has pushed some artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine further west towards Uman, including the self-propelled artillery division of the 53rd OMBr.

How will events unfold further?

After the loss of the village, attempts at counterattacks are almost certain. The Ukrainian army has undertaken them even with smaller territorial losses in Orlovka, even if it meant withdrawing from two or three strongholds. The intentions of the operation will become clear after further advancement from Orlovka by the Russian Armed Forces: it is not yet clear whether the strike will be directed towards Uman or towards Semenovka north of Orlovka. In this area, there are now only two Ukrainian outposts left on the LBS: Semenovka, defended by the 25th OVDBr and retreating units of the 3rd OShBr supported by the 63rd OSB, and Berdychev, where a battle is taking place with the 47th OMBr and the 116th TrO brigade.

Presumably, both directions will be reinforced after the loss of Orlovka, as the loss of Semenovka or Berdychev (regardless of the order) essentially renders the defense of neighboring sections of the front meaningless, including the area around Tonenky.

Where is it all going?

Given that Orlovka, Semenovka, Berdychev, and Tonenky are located in low-lying areas, the most likely scenario is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to positions 2 km west. However, there are no major fortified positions there: the terrain west of Orlovka consists of continuous fields. Therefore, in the event of the worst-case scenario, parts of Ukrainian army units will have to retreat to Novoselovka Pervaya and Novopokrovskoye. Another part will be forced to retreat to Uman and hold the defense along the highway. However, the turn to these fortified areas will come relatively quickly, as the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive in Tonenky is in its final stage.

Time for a smile

mnztr wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:IMO China and Russia should both pressure Kim to enact economic reforms.

you cannot really reform an economy that is heavily sanctioned as the laws of economics are too distorted by sanctions

NK could do business with just the friendly countries - Russia, China and the Global South in general.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote: Near Marinka, 18 VSU officers surrendered at once

Ukrainian fighters from the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade surrendered near the village of Georgievka. The VSU soldiers came under artillery fire during a rotation and realized that the best decision would be to save their lives.

The group commander contacted the Russian command and asked not to shoot.

According to military summary channel They also asked not to be included in the exchange process and wish to be kept as POWs until war ends.

Big_Gazza wrote:

ALAMO wrote:
NK is, mildly saying, not in the best economic shape.

Compared to whom?  Europe?  

NK might not be a neoliberal capitalist engine like SK, but I think the stories of NK ramshackle economy and technological backwardness are akin to the stories the feckless West has long told about Russia.  Same motivations, same authors, same paymasters.

Based on the collapse of Western narratives in Ukraine I think its safe to say that the "establishment wisdom" over the DPRK will also prove to be embarassingly wide of the mark.

Having been to NK and spent 10 days in various parts of country I was surprised it was more developed than the west have U believe, and they even had an IPAD clone that was apparently so good the guides from China were buying loads of them to take back to China. Because NK is such a clinical and disciplined culture it's economy is reliable and works like clockwork. Rural areas were less developed but this is the same in some areas of the UK and Europe. But yes sanctions do hamper it in some areas but sanctions have actually forced NK to become relatively self sufficient and many products are exported to china then re-exported to avoid sanctions. NK has a massive amount of engineering/ construction labour force which will come in very handy when rebuilding projects come into play in areas liberated in Ukraine. Mass Cheap skilled labour will be vital as Russia will want to rebuild and improve these areas as fast as possible to allow a return to normal (and better) living conditions for the population. I remember seeing a dam in NK and they were praised at the time of building it in a very fast, efficient way which western commentators were shocked at.

As Alamo has already stated NK have been stockpiling ammo for decades so having a clear out with no labour intensive and costly disposal this is a win win situation for NK they get rid of a future potential problem and get various assistance, and resources in return. Russian might once the war is over may produce more ammo and return it to NK for all we know. Nobody actually knows what deals were done what both parties seem happy enough with the deal.

At sepheronx not sure if U meant me or someone else.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE CONFIRMS FRANCE DEPLOYING FORCES IN UKRAINE

On March 19, the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (SVR) Sergei Naryshkin confirmed the reports. He claimed that Paris is already preparing the military personnel for deployment in Ukraine. At the initial stage, France is going to send about 2, 000 servicemen to the war-torn country.

Moreover, last night, two planes with French military was spotted landing at Sofia airport in Bulgaria. The group likely included about 500 servicemen. The French got on the closed trucks. The drivers, who locals were not told where they were going. They are supposedly traveling through Romania – Izmail – Odessa.

The official claims by the Russian SVR is a response to Macron’s policy. Moscow warned the French military leadership that the Russians are aware of what is happening on the French territory. Foreign servicemen will have much less chances to hide from the Russians in Ukrainian rear and risk to be destroyed by precision strikes before they come to the frontlines.


https://southfront.press/russian-foreign-intelligence-service-confirms-france-deploying-forces-in-ukraine/

Russian elections have driven Western leaders into a diplomatic trap, by Gevorg Mirzayan for VZGLYAD. 03.19.2024.

Europe will do as the Americans do when it comes to recognizing the Russian elections. And Washington has already begun to take the line of de facto recognition. They stated that they would act based on reality. And it convincingly demonstrates the victory of Vladimir Putin.

Another victory of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the elections caused a mixed reaction in the world. Leaders of the countries of the Global South have already congratulated their Russian counterpart on his impressive result - and thereby recognized his victory, which is an expression of the will of the country's population. “Your re-election fully reflects the support of the Russian people. I believe that under your leadership, Russia will be able to achieve great success in national development,” said Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

However, Western leaders did not say such words. On the contrary, they refused to recognize even the very fact of an honest expression of the people's will. “Russian authorities continued to increase the scale of internal repression, which resulted in an alarming increase in the number of violations of civil and political rights,” the EU foreign policy agency said in a statement. The French Foreign Ministry said that “the conditions for organizing free, pluralist and democratic elections were again not met.” And the German Foreign Ministry, which called the expression of will “elections without choice,” decided in its documentation no longer to call Putin president. And finally, everyone unanimously declared that they would not recognize the elections held in the new Russian territories.

However, none of them - even the Germans with their exceptions of words - directly and clearly stated that they refused to recognize the elections throughout Russia. And Putin is a legitimate, elected president. In essence, Europe has driven itself into a diplomatic trap.

After all, on the one hand, it is beneficial for the EU not to recognize the legitimate Russian elections. Otherwise, Russia (where elections were held) will differ very favorably from Ukraine, where the head of the Kyiv regime, Vladimir Zelensky, canceled them, and in violation of the laws and the Ukrainian constitution. And the legitimately elected Putin has every reason to demand negotiations with the legitimately elected European leaders, and not with someone unknown in Ukraine. Having no mandate to conduct discussions, much less legal grounds to sign anything.

Europe doesn’t want to negotiate with Putin yet. Not to mention the fact that the very fact of conducting such negotiations on Ukraine will be a recognition not only of Putin’s legitimacy, but also of a rejection of the policy of distancing itself from Moscow.

On the other hand, there is one subtle point here. Europe will dodge as long as the Americans do the same. But Washington has just begun to take the line of de facto recognition. They said that they would act based on reality, and this meant Putin as the president of Russia. And this is the current administration in the White House - it is possible that the next one will begin, based on reality, to conduct large package negotiations on Ukraine and the new European security system. In which Europe, it turns out, will not participate, since it did not recognize Putin.

Therefore, the EU decided to take a wait-and-see approach. They are waiting for clarification of the American position.

In addition to the diplomatic aspect, there is also a financial aspect. The refusal to recognize the results of the elections in Russia makes it somewhat easier for the West to steal Russian foreign exchange reserves that lie in European banks. The fact is that now these funds are the property of the Russian state - and only the Russian authorities can dispose of them. But if the West does not recognize Russian power, then, accordingly, it does not recognize its right to dispose of foreign exchange reserves.

True, in order to steal this money, you need to take one more step and recognize someone else as the elected president of Russia. This was done in the case of Venezuela and Belarus - but at least there were candidates who had minimal grounds for recognition. Juan Guaido, who served as speaker of the Venezuelan parliament (and becomes the head of state if the leadership of the executive branch is illegitimate), as well as Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who took second place in the Belarusian presidential elections, albeit with a gigantic and insurmountable lead over Alexander Lukashenko.

In the case of Russia, there are no such candidates - the leadership of parliament is loyal to the country, and the remaining candidates in the presidential elections recognized Putin’s victory. Therefore, Europe will issue a single EU-wide statement of non-recognition only if a decision is made to illegally seize the main body of Russian foreign currency assets (and not interest, as now).

And yet, despite political statements, omissions and other diplomatic subtleties, Europe understood everything correctly. The turnout and the number of votes for Putin (especially in large cities, which always seemed to be considered a stronghold of pro-Western sentiments) showed that the Russian people made not just an honest and free choice, but also a demonstrative one: they showed the EU and the USA their unity and readiness to withstand external pressure . Therefore, for the sake of objectivity, Europe should still recognize not only the elections, but also the new reality in the form of an active and patriotic civil society in Russia.

Well, if it doesn’t admit it, it’s okay. We'll survive.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/3/19/1258890.html

Russia should just sink this as soon as it enters black sea.

Belgium agrees to send minesweeper to Ukraine

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/belgium-agrees-to-transfer-minesweeper-to-ukrainian-navy/


Russia should target any ships, trains, trucks, aircraft , and bridges, that would be involved in such transport. Maybe sanctions of its own towards any country supplying such.



The Czech Republic says it is on the verge of delivering thousands of extra artillery shells to Ukraine, just weeks after it announced an initiative to source the much-needed supplies from outside the EU.

Its foreign minister, Jan Lipavský, said it had so far secured 300,000 shells and that the ammunition would provide a vital “few months’ breathing space” on the frontline. Sources added that the first deliveries would come before June.

Ukraine has said it is falling short of ammunition against Russia; the EU has said it expects to meet only 52% of a target set last year to deliver a million shells by March, and a bill to fund US military aid to Kyiv has been held up in Congress.

Russia is ‘‘outshelling’’ Ukraine by a five-to-one ratio and Kyiv’s forces are gradually being pushed back on the battlefield. Last month Avdiivka, a frontline town, fell to the Russians after a four-month battle.

Petr Pavel, the Czech president, announced the initiative at the Munich security conference in February, saying Prague had located 800,000 shells that could be obtained with funding from a consortium of western countries.

The scheme works by European countries buying the shells from countries in Africa and Asia, such as South Korea, which are unwilling to supply them directly to Ukraine but happy to sell to a third party such as the Czech Republic. The munitions come from unused military stockpiles, but supplier nations are usually reluctant to be named

Czech sources said that the consortium had obtained serious pledges to supply 300,000 high-calibre artillery shells, with the first shipments being delivered no later than June. Nonbinding pledges for a further 200,000 had been made.

The foreign minister said that 18 countries had committed to the initiative and they were close to raising the required funding to buy all 800,000 shells in an initiative that was partly a response the standoff in the US Congress, which is preventing the approval of a new $60bn military aid package.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/19/czech-republic-to-deliver-thousands-of-extra-artillery-shells-to-ukraine

A thousand BOOM´s in the target area. 


Can´t say exactly when or where this pic was taken but... 

Yes, Russia will need to strike at them directly, or it will give reason for Europe to send more troops.

California's blackouts are because of the prehistoric electrical grid and overwhelming consumption.

But NKs are state of the art?

Blackouts generally occur when the demand exceeds the capacity of the system either through design or damage or neglect.

They have problems because everybody is turning on AC units.

And it doesn't get cold or hot in North Korea so they don't have air conditioners or heaters...

Judge on your own how close is that to NK daily issues.

A free democratic country can't anticipate hot weather in summer in california... Los Vegas is a city built in a desert... the richest country in the world has blackouts in one of the richest parts of the country... that is where silicon valley is... don't you understand... they invented the internet and computers and maths and everything...

Spectacular and accurate hit by an LMUR guided missile on the position of Ukrainian FPV drone operators.

That looks like the same attack as the other day when it showed Orcs taking gear out of a car that arrived and taking it into a house that was later leveled... this looks like that house from another angle.

Not that this is the first or last time they would do this...

Nice footage.... the quality of cameras in their recon drones is getting better...

Time for a smile

Hahahahaha....

you cannot really reform an economy that is heavily sanctioned as the laws of economics are too distorted by sanctions

The reform North Korea needs is open and free and fair trade with other countries... something western sanctions are trying to prevent and stifle.

NK could do business with just the friendly countries - Russia, China and the Global South in general.

They most likely will and I suspect Russia and China will encourage them to join BRICS and open up to trade and improved relations with non western nations that are not hostile to them and want to invade and attack them.

I am not against the North Koreans giving shells to Russia. I think that we might even soon see Iranian and North Korean indigenously developed armor in Ukraine

North Korea has some interesting weapons that are largely untested in combat conditions and against Ukrainian and HATO forces what better opportunity to test their heavier rocket systems like the one in Alamos post above.

How on a scale it applies in cost factor to Iskander?

BTW the specs for these rockets.... 600mm calibre, 3 ton rockets with flight range of 400km is not especially amazing and three tons of solid rocket fuel... the Iskander is 3.8 tons and it manouvers all the way evading air defences with a 600kg payload at mach 6 to mach 7 to a range of 500km.

Not sure these 600mm calibre rockets would be a lot cheaper... and certain they wont be quite so accurate...

I would say something smaller than this that is just a ballistic rocket that flies to the target that is launched and accelerated by rocket power but just coasts much of the way to impact that weighs perhaps 1,200-1,500kgs (Smerch weighs about 815kg in the 120km range version) that just falls onto the target that could be used after the air defence has been neutralised with Iskander and Kinzhal and Kh-32 and other weapons their AD can't stop.

However, Western leaders did not say such words. On the contrary, they refused to recognize even the very fact of an honest expression of the people's will. “Russian authorities continued to increase the scale of internal repression, which resulted in an alarming increase in the number of violations of civil and political rights,” the EU foreign policy agency said in a statement. The French Foreign Ministry said that “the conditions for organizing free, pluralist and democratic elections were again not met.” And the German Foreign Ministry, which called the expression of will “elections without choice,” decided in its documentation no longer to call Putin president. And finally, everyone unanimously declared that they would not recognize the elections held in the new Russian territories.

The irony is that the west is therefore claiming that Putins propaganda state has managed to fool 90% of the population of Russia to vote for him against their better judgement... there are no accusations that this is not the will of the people, it is a claim that the people are duped by presumably superb levels of propaganda to fool the people into making the wrong choice.

The west is accusing Russia of being the west, yet even in the west, political candidates don't get 45% of the vote let alone almost 90%, so why is Russian propaganda so effective in Russia and the rest of the world but not in the west.

Could it be that western governments and media are lying to the people of the west and that he is actually just a popular successful politician who seems to be impossible to buy or threaten to betray his country?

And the legitimately elected Putin has every reason to demand negotiations with the legitimately elected European leaders, and not with someone unknown in Ukraine. Having no mandate to conduct discussions, much less legal grounds to sign anything.

Putin might even refuse to speak to unelected EU officials and demand to only speak to those in positions of power via elections of the people of the EU... or he could just talk to the US and skip talking to the farmers dog and speak to the farmer.

Therefore, the EU decided to take a wait-and-see approach. They are waiting for clarification of the American position.

What a shock that the leaders of the free world would take such a passive approach... how does their garden stay so tidy with such pussies in charge?

You'd have to ask America...

Russia should just sink this as soon as it enters black sea.

Ukrainian navy ship is a legitimate target... a mine sweeper is also a mine layer... and therefore a threat to all shipping.

Its foreign minister, Jan Lipavský, said it had so far secured 300,000 shells and that the ammunition would provide a vital “few months’ breathing space” on the frontline. Sources added that the first deliveries would come before June.

Assuming it reaches the front line...

The Russians seem to know the details of French military forces going to Ukraine... artillery shells shouldn't be hard to track too.

Glide bombs are making artillery shells less critical... you could shell concrete fortified positions for years and a single 1.5 ton penetrating bomb could level the entire structure and kill everyone inside.

Russia should just sink this as soon as it enters black sea.

Don´t think that the Turkish will let those ships pass.
Remember the British minesweepers.

Can we stop talking about NK's economy in this thread?
The thread "MiG-29/ΜiG-35 Fulcrum: News #2" has been hijacked by that troll Arrow and turned into RAF vs Nato AF thread.
We don't need to ruin more threads.

MOSCOW, March 20 – RIA Novosti. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the beginning of the year have exceeded 71 thousand people, the head of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu said at the department’s board .
“In general, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during this period, that is, since the beginning of this year, exceeded 71 thousand people and 11 thousand units of various weapons. This is almost three times higher than the figures for the same period last year,” the minister said.

https://ria-ru.translate.goog/20240320/poteri-1934461574.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp