2024 Iran–Israel conflict

I think this blue sparrow or Rock air launched ballistic missile has long range , advertised 2000 km ! Booster separated 160 km from Iran borders , therefore missile launched about 400 km away from Iran borders . This is the fear they have of Iran AD ! My guess it has 500 kg conventional warhead . This is only good enough against static target fixed above ground . I saw a video allegedly showing Iran S300 taken out by this ? In conventional role , it is of limited use , since need many aircraft to launch and these can be intercepted by fighter aircraft also . Unless they use non-conventional warhead .


Iran can not escalate too much , since no nukes . Israel will nuke them . This strike may have used a nuke warhead . As I said the intense and short white flashes are very suspect . Iran can not do much else either without nukes . Even sending a land army , if possible , would involve a nuke strike by Israel . In fact Iran can not fight any nuke armed state . It is defenceless . It is insanity to start a conventional war with a nuke armed state . It was insanity to launch ballistic missiles against a nuke armed state , without first showing a nuke deterrent .

In order for Iran to deter Israel and America , it needs nuke MRBM and ICBM . If it had these , then it could support the axis , without coming under direct attack . But even then it's allies will be attacked , even nuked themselves . I heard analysts predict that a war with Hizb Allah in Lebanon , will force Israel to use a couple of small nukes . That is the reality . Unless Hizb Allah gets nukes and so does Ansar Allah . Iran wrongly decided against nukes . Without security no prosperity . Let's hope that recent events change their hearts and minds . Iran can then act more decisively . Launch a land army .

Copium. Iron Dome failed and now we have some wonder waffle pulled from the ass.

There are videos on the web that show rather convincingly that so-called interceptions by Israeli anti-missile systems to supposed missile
attacks over the years are fake. Israel launches missiles that are then detonated as if they intercepted targets. This is especially
apparent at night when there is no visual signal from the alleged incoming targets. Air friction by itself would produce a noticeable glow.
The speeds involved are higher than the bullets you see lighting up the sky in "Arab weddings".

All the alternative media are saying that the Russians shot down an Israeli F35 that was going straight to attack Iran. The Western media and the shame of the Israelis are covering up the information

No information on F-35, twitter was showing arma-3 footage that an F-35 was shot down. and pepe escobar made some **** up getting called out by ritter

nomadski wrote: I saw a video allegedly showing Iran S300 taken out by this ? In conventional role , it is of limited use , since need many aircraft to launch and these can be intercepted by fighter aircraft also . Unless they use non-conventional warhead .

Nah , it's an old destroyed S-300 from Russian Ukrainian war .

nomadski wrote:
Iran can not escalate too much , since no nukes . Israel will nuke them . This strike may have used  a nuke warhead . As I said the intense and short white flashes are very suspect . Iran can not do much else either without nukes . Even sending a land army , if possible , would involve a nuke strike by Israel . In fact Iran can not fight any nuke armed state . It is defenceless . It is insanity to start a conventional war with a nuke armed state .

Yes they can , Egypt has launched a war against israel in1973 and the zionists had Nukes that time , israel was sure that neither Egypt nor Syria has Nukes but is she so sure too about Iran now ?

The real backbone of israel is the US not Nukes , US just approved 26 B$ aid to israel , how could neighbors compete such dollar printing machines !

At this point, I have my serious doubts that Israel would have launched any operation against Iran.
Except for the use of internal opposition groups to attack with drones.
Knowing the way of Zionism, if it decides to attack, it would do so in a more notable way.
About missile launches, shoot-downs by the USA or Russia, etc, etc; It is the product of the usual fantasists, who abound on the networks.

@ Parfar

I was listening to the same YouTube by Prof. Marandi  . What I noticed was the consensus among speakers about the " emotional , " nature and reason behind the Israeli attack on Iranian Embassy . This may be true . However I do remember hearing on the internet that the Israeli intelligence had predicted that Iran would respond with about 70 BM strikes ! I wish I could find the link for this claim . But if this claim is true , then this attack was far more calculated than Bibi getting a hissy fit !

Then we have to ask , what response , would the Israelis show after this " 70 missile , " strike ? But the nature of this attack on Iran  is a mystery . First hand reports by people on the ground , tell of large explosion(s) and there were early YouTube " posts ," showing bright flashes on or near the ground .

The Iranians , as per previous incidents , are not saying much . The Israelis are not publicly saying anything either . The first case , is somewhat understandable , the Iranians wanting to save face , or avoid an escalation . But the Israeli case is more mysterious . Surely if the objective ( of attacking the Iranian Embassy ) was to allow for an Israeli strike , then they should take credit openly ? With an attack having a significant effect ?

But it seems they have not made a significant attack ,  and the attack by them seems to have involved one to three strikes at best , using their Rock missiles . Even the Israelis would know , that the Iranian AD would probably intercept a few missiles . And launching one to three missiles , is not going to cause any damage , even if they all got through .

Therefore , I must draw the conclusion ( together with the unusual nature of bright flash ) that the single warhead was the entire objective of this Israeli operation and was by itself significant and establish deterrence ! Also despite Iranian bluster of instant massive retaliation , to slightest move , there was .......nothing ! There could not possibly be a retaliation following a nuke strike or EMP strike ! The Iranians are not going to say " ....hey folks , the Israelis just nuked us ...And our Islamic  fatwa is keeping you safe ! "


On top of all this , rumours of sale of 12 ? SU35 ! What are 12 planes going to do ? Protect the Iranian nuke sites against first wave of  Israeli F35 , dropping 2000 lb laser guided bunker busters ? Then what ?

Read this thread regarding the allegations on israel “destroying” Iran’s S300 AD system (it did not).

In short: No sign of ballistic missile impacts, or any big impact. Only possibility is arguably some very minor damage due to incendiary quadcopters, which is still unconfirmed.

Link to thread (https://x.com/fatherland9_/status/1781978775174992225?s=46&t=P1DQrEyGxQ0X-IFfq7mhEw)

— Iran's S-300 radar in Isfahan was not damaged, despite claims

There are no signs of any explosion in the released satellite imagery, but the following can be observed:

- Green: Big Bird 64N6E2 Radar (for the S-300 Air Defense System)

- Yellow: Shadow of the radar system if closed

- Blue: Shadow of the radar system if opened & operational, or possibly something on top of the strategic camouflage net

- Red: Camouflage net covering the radar's aerial & infrared / radar signature

@Middle_East_Spectator

Iran making progress in bunker building . According to Newton's formulas , there is a limit to penetration of soil , depending on relative density and diameter . Without penetration , surface impact and explosion useless . One way to stop penetration , is to have reactive armour ( mines ) on the surface . This leaves a nuclear warhead . Again without penetration , it is of limited use . That is not to say , that nukes will not be used to hit our local hospital !

Bunkers are quite safe but the entry isn't not. Few good hit and your bunker is isolated for days if not weeks if the enemy manage to hit again your forces trying to reopen it.

True . There are several ways around this problem : ( 1 ) The first is to have several entrances / exits . ( 2 ) Only one Entrance / Exit , in use and others closed and camouflaged . ( 3 ) Design in mountain / cliff area , not allowing vertical entrance of free fall heavy bunker buster . ( 4 ) Zig- Zag entrances . All this will allow survival of bunkers after initial attacks , but not long term . Suitable for compounds needing to survive initial attacks , by fulfilling function quickly : Missile or plane launched in counter strike . Tanks or vehicles sent out to battle . Stores accessed for supplies , fuel Ammo . Conventional warhead and large bomber easily stopped . Not a nuke missile .

Very concerned about the nature of Israeli strike . Especially those flashes , seem identical to low altitude small nuke explosions . Looks to me like some kind of advanced  nuke / EMP Sub- kiloton charge . Especially if no damage on the ground , then where did warhead go ? Vaporized ? There was a Rock missile or two fired .






Compare with flashes :

GarryB wrote:

Two Iranian sources confirmed that the S-300 air defense system was indeed damaged.

Two pro Iranian Iranian sources, or two CIA sources in Iran confirmed...

The irony is that if it is true it will just lead Iran to seek more anti stealth radar technology from Russia... with the right radar to detect and track stealth targets conventional SAMs can be used for the interception...

I'm guessing that S-300PMU2 wasn't provided with Pantsir SHORADs for point defense. Guess what will now be put on the shopping list?

Deflection could continue when bunker buster enters the soil . Concrete slabs presented at angles in layers to tip the device unto it's side !

 

Interesting ideas about water and lakes , to capture high speed stuff . This will all work against conventional warheads . But as you mentioned the problem of a nuke earth penetrator strike , turning Earth into plastic flow exists . So I just add that tunnel or bunker sections can be arranged to have flexible joints , allowing movement with the Earth . Or a type of structure , where one concrete circular section , has cone shape ends that fit loosely inside another section ! This design will allow a great deal of movement . Waterproofing between sections , can allow for integral design .





Only bigger and made of concrete . Loosely packed and fine Earth , around tunnels will help .

The did they/didn't they discussion rolls on.

S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y
@Sprinterfactory
Higher quality satellite images from the site of the S300-PMU2 system based in Isfahan were also published and clearly, we do not see any damage.

CONFIRMED:

So as it turns out, the ian S300 AD system sustained ZERO damage as new detailed satellite images clearly show. This yet again proves that all those so-called OSINT accs are a bunch of talkshow accounts with pure speculation.

Big blow to US & israeli credibility

https://twitter.com/AryJeay/status/1782492732373499957

Oryx counted 12 S-300 systems destroyed.