JohninMK Sun May 19, 2024 11:25 am
A pretty sober analysis
Summary for the Morning of May 19, 2024; published at 08:15
The past week was marked by Shoigu's departure for a new position and Belousov's appointment as the new defense minister. On Tuesday, May 14, 2024, the Investigative Committee of Russia announced the opening of a criminal case and the detention of Kuznetsov, head of the Personnel Department of the RF MoD, for acts of corruption committed when he led the 8th Directorate of the General Staff of the RFAF (protection of state secrets). The board of the MoD has not yet made any drastic staffing changes, though such changes are expected and deemed necessary. As with the arrested Timur Ivanov, "everybody knows everything," but a one-time crackdown on all officials may have unintended consequences.
Belousov has inherited significant challenges. "Beautiful reports" still hinder an objective assessment of the situation and correct managerial decisions, which is why he emphasized, "you can make mistakes, but you can't lie." Immediate priorities include improving the supply of small drones, electronic warfare, optoelectronic and sound-monitoring complexes, communications, strengthening air defense, and optimizing the military economy for "normal combat." The tasks outlined by the Supreme Commander have been set by the new Minister, indicating much work ahead.
In the new Kharkov direction, our troops are creating a buffer zone with heavy battles taking place. Several settlements, where the AFU defense has collapsed, have been occupied. The enemy is embroiled in scandals and theft related to constructing engineering barriers but has managed to deploy reserves from other directions, slowing our advance near Liptsy and Volchansk. The Russian Army is responding with maneuvers and artillery strikes.
The enemy is conducting daily shelling of the frontline Kursk and Belgorod regions, using weapons supplied by NATO countries against the inhabitants of Belgorod. Promised retaliatory actions against Kiev have yet to materialize.
The advance of our troops on the Ocheretino ledge west of Avdeyevka has slowed, while heavy fighting continues to the south. The RFAF maintains the initiative in the Kupyansk direction near Kislovka. Bloody battles are ongoing near the eastern part of Chasov Yar. The assault on Krasnogorovka in the South Donetsk direction continues, as well as in Staromayorskoye and Urozhaynoye on the Vremyevka ledge. On the Zaporozhye front, our troops are storming Rabotino, suffering heavy losses from AFU drones and artillery, with little opportunity for entrenchment in the destroyed village. Progress from Verbovoye is slow but hopeful.
The week was characterized by massive drone and rocket attacks by the AFU in Crimea and Krasnodar territory. The enemy targets military airfields, oil refineries, and port infrastructure, inflicting significant economic damage, which exceeds the cost of organizing effective air defense.
Overall, the Russian Army retains the initiative along the front, opening a new direction that diverts AFU forces from other sections. Ukraine's military machine, supported solely by NATO, is being systematically destroyed. There is a noted "window of opportunity" for our aviation, as enemy air defense systems are depleted or knocked out, with limited time before new systems are delivered from the West.
Source: Sitrep
9:07 AM · May 19, 2024
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