Countdown: America Prepares to Pass the Point of No Return, by Pëtr Akopov for RiaNovosti. 10.17.2024.
The American election campaign has entered the home stretch — in three weeks everything should be over. But exactly what “should” — in reality, there is practically no chance that the vote on November 5 will put an end to the struggle for power in America. Moreover, on November 6, it will simply move to a new, much more dangerous stage for everyone (and not only for the residents of the USA). Because it is already clear: according to the results of the vote, Donald Trump will win, and the return of the ex-president to the White House is categorically unacceptable for the majority of the American establishment. And having failed to stop him with the help of election manipulation, the “deep state” will do everything to annul Trump’s second term — with the help of courts, mass protests and riots, attempts to assassinate him, terrorist attacks and even the threat of a split in the USA.
But what does it mean that Trump's victory is already a foregone conclusion? After all, poll data is fickle, and the fight will go on until the last day - and replacing Biden with Harris has raised the Democratic candidate's ratings. Why present Trump as a confident winner?
The thing is that this is Trump's third presidential election, and there is a good opportunity to compare the 2024 polls with similar polls from 2016 and 2020. And then compare them with the voting results in those years, and predict the outcome of the November 5 elections. And if you do this, one thing will become clear: the polls have always given Trump less than he actually received.
Yes, he won in 2016 and lost in 2020, but the pattern was the same: Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden received fewer votes than the polls promised them. And now Kamala Harris, according to the same polls, has less support than Clinton had in 2016 and Biden in 2022, which means she will do worse against Trump than they did. In other words, she will lose. Moreover, her advantage is shrinking even on a national scale, and by election day it may turn out that even the polls will not put her in first place.
And this is despite the fact that national leadership – that is, in terms of the total number of votes – is of no importance at all. Clinton beat Trump by several million votes in 2016, but was far behind in the Electoral College, which represents the states. Because everything is decided in the states, and not even in all 50, but in several swing states, that is, those switching from party to party. In the current campaign, there are seven of them ( Pennsylvania , Michigan , Wisconsin , North Carolina , Georgia , Arizona , and Nevada ) – and it is already clear that Trump will win almost all of them.
The former president led in most of these states when Biden was his opponent, but after Harris was nominated, polls showed a tight race and even a lead for Kamala. But now the "newcomer" effect has disappeared, and everything is back to normal. According to the latest polls, Trump is leading in five of the seven states, everywhere except Wisconsin and Nevada (and he is gradually moving ahead in the first of these states). Yes, his advantage is expressed in small numbers, ranging from 0.3 percent in Pennsylvania to 0.9 in Arizona. Isn't that within the margin of statistical error? Yes, but it is worth looking at the polls from the previous two elections in these states.
And then it will turn out that Trump is now in a much stronger position than in 2016 and 2020. For example, in Pennsylvania eight years ago, he was losing to Clinton by more than nine percent, and ended up winning by 0.7. Four years later, polls gave Biden an advantage of more than seven percent over Trump, but Donald lost by only 1.2.
The same thing happened in Michigan and Wisconsin: Trump was far behind Clinton, but won, and Biden's loss was noticeably less than promised. And this, let us recall, was in a situation where Clinton and Biden were seriously ahead of Trump in the polls, and Harris is now behind him or on par.
If the current alignment holds in the three weeks remaining before the election (though it will likely only become more favorable to Trump), then on November 5, Trump will confidently defeat Harris in five of the seven states, and as a result, will receive 296 electors to 215. At the same time, he has a good chance of taking a sixth state, Wisconsin, and then the final score will be even higher.
It’s not just the polls that predict a crushing Trump victory — the Democrats are doing very poorly with voter registration in those same swing states: in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona, there are hundreds of thousands fewer than there were four years ago. And no amount of mobilization of Trump’s opponents to vote in stable Democratic states like California or New York will make any difference — the Democrats need Trumpophobes to come out to vote in Pennsylvania.
Trump's victory frightens the establishment not only because Donald will now be more experienced and evil - and therefore more effective in the fight against the "deep state", but also because he can gain complete control over Congress. If the Republicans win back the Senate (which they have a good chance of doing) and hold on to the House of Representatives, Trump will become a truly sovereign president - unlike his first term, during which he was opposed not only by the "Washington swamp" but also by part of his own party, now he has serious control over the Republicans.
Bookmakers also sense the real trend - they currently estimate the probability of Trump's election at 53.7 percent, and Harris at 45.7, and closer to the election the ratio may become even more favorable for the former president.
If Trump cannot be stopped, then he must be killed – and the chances of another assassination attempt are very high now. However, you can kill Trump, but you cannot kill Trumpism, that is, the rebellion of a significant part of Americans against the globalist establishment. Trump's vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance is much more radical in many respects than his boss – and therefore the physical elimination of the former president will not help the "Washington swamp".
Turbulence will increase in the next three weeks not only in the US – the stakes for the outcome of the US elections are high for the whole world. Including in war zones – from Ukraine to the Middle East , where the most unexpected events can be expected. This does not mean that the storm will increase until November 5 and then subside – no calm after the storm is expected, if only because the most destructive storms are just forming now.
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