2024 Iran–Israel conflict #2

Sujoy wrote:
48N6P-1 and 9M82 are both qualified to intercept TBM. Strange that Iran didn't shoot down the Israeli ALBMs.

Strategic SAMs are for protecting your center of gravity. So most important HQs, communication facilities, industrial sites, storage bases, etc.

And what do you know, the yahudis weren't even able to dent anything important.

Motherfuckers have blown up a porta potty and that's enough to claim victory.

48N6P-1 and 9M82 are both qualified to intercept TBM. Strange that Iran didn't shoot down the Israeli ALBMs.

Unless they were very very high speed missiles (which would benefit from very high altitude flight) I would assume a ballistic missile launched from an aircraft would have a very shallow flight path to make it harder to spot and to intercept even if it didn't manouver.

Most ABM systems are geared towards fully ballistic weapons that are lofted high in the air and come down rather steeply... that is why most ABM SAMs have rather short effective ranges against ballistic missiles... the Patriot PAC-3 had a range of about 15-25km because at greater ranges the target would be too high up in the air to intercept.

Even the S-300V and S-400 don't hit ballistic missiles at anywhere near their max range against aerodynamic targets (about 250km and 400km respectively).

Iran has like 4 S-300. They have maybe an effective ABM range of 60km. They have a territory bigger than Ukraine. Don't expect them to intercept anything with them that is not around Teheran and nuclear sites.

Plus the Israelis and Americans will be carefully scanning super high res satellite images all the time to try to find and locate their air defence systems finding targets that are not defended that they can claim were critical for this or that reason so they can claim a win.

Not much different from the Ukraine where no doubt they searched and searched for targets a few missiles might sneak through... like a dry dock or something.

I think it’s clear that the attack, as set, being limited in scope, was successful. Acquired targets were hit and all planes returned to base.

Considering the attack that was promised and threatened it was very very weak. It seems they modified their missiles to achieve extra range because they clearly fear the Iranian air defences while at the same time claiming they are weak and can be defeated by the super Israeli air power not to mention US air power.

Will be interesting if Trump gets elected... how will things look in just over a weeks time... war in Iran or war in Washington...

Seems to me a Trump victory is more likely to cause civil unrest, but if it is blatantly obvious the Democrats cheated again then maybe civil unrest might happen no matter what...

The other questions remain unanswered. Had it gone for the bigger targets where the more sophisticated air defence architecture is in place, would it have been successful. On balance, probably as it’s been proven in both the Ukraine/Russia and israel, that no matter how good the architecture, missiles get through. But until that attack happens we don’t know for sure.

How stealthy is the F-35... you would assume a more aggressive attack would use their best aircraft and it would be used more heavily... putting it more in harms way and taking greater risks... when the F-117 was shot down it essentially faded from service but the corruption that is the F-35 they can't afford to do that... it is the golden goose that is milking US allies of funds at an enormous rate, and there is no plan B, or should that be Plane B... unless Plane B is the new old F-15.

For Iran, it’s a warning that yes their stuff can be hit without much hinderance. We can only speculate about the targets as above. But the Iranians will be looking at this as a decent unanswered attack with much to consider.

Iran is a relatively large territory and all they seem to have his is an engineering company that makes drilling equipment... I suspect they were working on something that will make Iranian drilling cheaper and more effective and that was why they were targeted... it was an economic target that Iran is going to claim was making farm machinery. A bit like the west claiming a baby milk factory in Iraq was making Chemical weapons... the attack forcing Iraq to import baby milk formula... from the west... how fortunate is that for that western company...

The problem for the israelis and why I think they’re actually the major losers out of this entire 12 months,

Agree with the point you go on to make but I would add it is worse than that because from a rest of the world view, those Iranian attacks were against obviously military targets, while Israeli attacks with its super powerful military and amazing air force actually hits hospitals and schools and UN workers and reporters and claims terrorist elements were there in bunkers underneath.

The different between Israel and Iran is not a lot different from the difference between Kiev and Russia where the former are attempting to remove an entire group from territory it claims as its own and the group is based on the language they speak and includes Ukrainians, which they call Russians. In comparison the civilian death toll to Russian strikes is minimal... the sort of thing western countries claim and would love to achieve politically in a conflict, but never manage because they are so afraid of losing their own troops and will level a city block to get a single enemy sniper... whom they will call a terrorist of course.

Israel is now a lost society

When they said Israel has a right to exist and the right to defend itself, but that Palestine has no right to exist and no right to resist it was over, because that is genocide and the west wont support that forever... they have their own problems right now.

The S-400 was on record for shooting down S-300 interceptorsthat were targeting friendly Russian aircraft.

When it comes to intercepting real world targets it doesn't get any more harder than that.