Russian special military operation in Ukraine #62

For those of us without T.

And being that this is so you shouldn't count on Trump dropping long-range missile strikes when he assumes the presidency. He'll drop them.. if he receives an act of good-will from Moscow first. Such as agree to a ceasefire.

Too late. The US is now a party to the war and now a legitimate target for Russia.

Trump's willingness to use these strikes as a bargaining chip.. even if we suppose that it wasn't his idea to do so initially.

The red line has been crossed... Trump will not be an independent mediator no matter how much he pretends, the US is now a party to the conflict and that very much changes how Russia can and will deal with them.

Trump might pretend to be doing Russia a favour by rescinding this order, but Russia will see it as not even a start... sanctions should all be lifted if you want to talk, and the talk is going to have to include all of Russias demands along the lines of HATO.

No ceasefire, no HATO expansion, etc etc... otherwise the war continues and Kievs forces continue to be pushed back... beyond new Russian border lines.

managed according to Russia's own timing, in order to create a bigger long term effect, means, a faster degradation of the West's resource basis and less options for them to escape financial meltdown by means of a major world conflict.

Indeed... attacks on heating and electrical systems in the Ukraine, president trumps election, the replacement of pro kiev governments in the EU with election after election showing throwing money at kiev is not popular in the EU, the situation on the front line and in Kursk.... and winter is coming.

Now the US showing it is a direct party to this conflict... I see the US embassy in Kiev has been evacuated... they know... but the irony is that I don't think Putin would attack the US embassy because that is the dirty thing a western government would do and claim it was a mistake later... the israelis would do it and not give a shit about international opinion... claiming self defence as an excuse for anything they do... but those Americans will likely have moved somewhere else to run the country and the conflict and comms will tell Russia where they went pretty quickly and not being US embassy territory it will be fair game... but now the red line was crossed US territory is fair game now they are party to the conflict.

I rather suspect to the open disappointment of many the result of this attack will be that buffer zones will be expanded... which will piss off many of the more blood thirsty among us, but in the longer term will mean Odessa will now need to be taken which will actually please them in the longer run.

Imagine if Biden didn't take this step and the agreement just established these four new regions into Russian territory and kiev kept control of the rest and kept Odessa and access to the Black Sea...  many would claim that was a loss for Russia... ignoring the fact that they saved the Ukrainians in four regions plus Crimea.

Don't think that Trump will change anything. I know how it will go down.

Trump is unpredictable, and can easily be duped into working against what he said he wanted, but he was still orders of magnitude better than Hillary and now Harris....

His early sanctions helped Russia and made her stronger and pushed her towards BRICS, which is ultimately going to save the world from an American millenium which would be destructive and colonial... for the world.

Some half-assed "peace talks" will happen, they will fail (NATO will tell Ukraine to reject any major concessions),

The longer Kiev continues to fight the worse their eventual deal will be. Let them continue to fight.... they are the black knight in the Monty Python film.... with no arms and no legs taunting the enemy... are you a coward?

A severed head sitting on the ground... saying... OK... we will call it a draw shall we?

The war in Ukraine will continue to be a slog/war of attrition with neither side getting a breakthrough.

Ukraine has lost, no matter what money and ammo and weapons are sent to them they don't have the men to operate any equipment they do have, and any ammo and weapons and equipment that can be sent will be destroyed as it arrives at Odessa, or arrives at a warehouse. The front line continues to move west. Their front line gets shorter and fewer men to man the front line.

All of that amounts to a non-response and will only further embolden Western leaders and convince them that Putin is all talk

The shift is more important than the instant responses... the US is now the enemy... they enabled that attack, but the response will take time to plan and enable.

A nuclear strike on US forces in Germany or Poland is not required because no one died in the US supported attack, but you did hit Russian territory so US territory needs to be hit.

With the US evacuating its embassy in Kiev they might hit that... the chances of US casualties is low, but removing people  is one thing all those secrets and special equipment and files makes obliterating the US embassy a good target.... their ability to support Kiev will be reduced dramatically... without killing a lot of Poles like an attack on a warehouse in Poland might do.

but by that time we really will end up in WW3 with no room for maneuver.

Hitting the US embassy in Kiev will say we know you are now directly helping the nazis... welcome to the war.

Nobody in the west cares about Russia killing orcs, but their embassies are US soil... an attack on the US herself...

And Putin said using long range HATO missiles requires US direct support... this is a piece of what you get.

And over that time, in fact in little time at all, the range and scope of NATO missile strikes against Russia can steadily increase.

The only likely success they will have there is attacking less well protected civilian targets, which allows Russia to start attacking civilian targets in the extreme west of the Ukraine, which will make them realise they are in a war zone, which they wont like at all... might even turn them off the conflict completely.

It also can definitely not be excluded that NATO will introduce ground forces once Russian forces advance to the Dnepr or threaten Odessa.

And those troops get attacked and killed they can't claim article 5 protection.

No nation will send troops to be killed by Russia.... that is a bluff... they will start by saying they will send troops and ask who else will join them and when only the baltic states say yes they will come up with all sorts of reasons why the can't do it... most of their gear is already there isn't it?

Denmark has delivered six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, with 13 more to be delivered later, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said. She also announced another aid package for the Ukrainian military.

At least one is destroyed and most likely strikes against their airfields has lead to the others being destroyed... Zelensky was demanding MiG-29s... clearly those F-16s haven't been as amazing as they thought they would be.

Main thing is that Russia doesn't chicken out.

What does that even mean?

Descend to the level of an enemy that knows no ethics or morals?

If they do, you could say the west has won.

What defines things is who wins and a response attack is not needed by Russia to win this.

So far they have burned up a few dozen million dollars worth of uber HATO tech that was supposed to bring Russia to its knees.

Fail.

No, massive air raid on Kiev with NO Warning. I abhor violence but until the viceroys are carried out in body bags and the embassies (awwww jeesh, Russia used the wrong maps, they thought they were striking ammo dumps and state banks) cease to be able to function the stupidity will continue.

Agree, but levelling Kiev wont matter to the people making the decisions.

Find out what assets the Biden family and the Pelosi family and Blackrock have in the Ukraine and destroy that. The world wont understand why the west ignores Ukrainians dying but goes apeshit over some factories or mines or pipelines get destroyed.

Hit the embassies with the staffs in them and with 0 warning and apologize for the accident later. After all, Russian doesn't have smart weapons like the west and so it was a most unfortunate accident.

They don't have any missiles left remember... amazing the damage a shovel can do.  But seriously they could not have hit the US embassy because their weapons are not accurate enough...

Be careful you may just choke on your bagel pretty soon!

It wont matter what is or is not done, they will never be satisfied...

Ukrainians are recording the Storm Shadow strike from a UAV. A Ukrainian drone is freely flying around military headquarters, etc.

Information also appeared on the network about the arrival of missiles at the historical estate of the XIX century Baryatinsky princes in the Kursk region. The area is cordoned off.

Military headquarters?

The shit channel you posted said it was the estate of some princes from the 19th century.

Try and delete FP's bit in order to avoid another ban...

Piece of advice to members, it would probably be better to not quote at all if you can't use the quote feature properly...

Give it up with Trump. In the US, the president doesn't have much power. Trump will dance to the tune of the Deep State. If he tries something, the next sniper will hit. How much can we repeat this nonsense about Trump giving up on Ukraine.

Would that be the worst thing... I think the VP for both parties were 1000 percent better than their presidential candiate partners... compare the vice presidents debate compared with the presidential debate... the VPs appear to be adults... the presidential candidates not so much...

If Putin can't accept this. Then Russia needs to be led by someone who can.

80plus% popularity and you turn on him so easily.

Much as I love Putin as a person and as a peacetime leader, I feel he really fucked up with the Ukraine and let things drag far too long.

The force is strong with you to know such things. Did the use of bloody violence improve HATOs chances in Afghanistan against sandle wearing Afghans with no super power support? After 20 years they declared they changed their minds and left...  the Afghans didn't have any nukes and were not getting billions of dollars and the latest weapons delivered to them...

OK some will say there were other factors. But the truth is, liberating the whole Ukraine would have been a VERY short operation from 2014
til when Creepy Joe got into the White House.

Lots of speculation there... the Ukrainians would have been a lot weaker but so would the Russian military and the Russian economy... no experience in Syria, no rounds of European sanctions to spread out the damage and allow the Russian economy to cope.

Honestly I agree in the sense that Russia should never have signed Minsk and should never have accepted the Kiev regime as anything other than an illegitimate puppet regime of the US and EU.

But actually starting a war... it has taken 8 years of bombing and shelling by Kiev to make the Ukrainians in the four eastern regions to realise they are better off being Russian... 8 years of thinking the west might help protect them from Kiev, only to realise it was all their idea and the goal was to eliminate them so they could occupy those fertile black soil farms and mines in the west of the country... without those troublesome Russian speaking invaders on their own land.

Putin needs to prove himself to be a wartime leader. NOW.

He has... as much as many like to pretend HATO is a paper tiger, they can still start WWIII, so just treating them like they treat Russia would be suicide for both sides... the difference is that the world wont miss western culture because it has become self destructive.

They will withdraw from the conflict when Russia agrees a ceasefire and a freeze of the conflict.

That is what US newspapers have printed but there is no confirmation from Trump about any of that shit.

Putin has said there will be no freeze or ceasefire until Russian demands are met, they will not agree to a ceasefire like Minsk until Kievs forcees are rearmed and reequipped.

And this scenario requires Russia to be brought to heel

Then they haven't been paying attention.

So freeze the conflict, and in the meantime rebuild the armed forces of Ukraine and prepare for the next round. The scheme has been practiced since 2014 in accordance with Minsk II. Great plan Trump.

Trump promised a solution in 24 hours and the easiest way to do that is for him to sign a document as President of the United States of America that all US personnel will leave the Ukraine and will cut all ties with the country and all funding and weapons and support and all agreements are now null and void. He could sign that in two minutes and that will end the conflict. It might take a day or two for the EU to say they can't do it all on their own, but the conflict will end rather quickly.

The rats will scatter when there is no money going in...

Striking now would jeopardize that reorientation and make it hard for Trump to disengage

If Putin does decide to attack something Trump can just blame Biden, because his stupid command made that response by Russia necessary.

You still believe Trump will stop the war? The guy who said he would leave Syria (he didn't), that he would leave Afghanistan (he didn't). He is just a load of hot air.

Actually he did remove 1,000 American soldiers from Syria, but the lied to him about how many were there.

Also the binding agreement that forced the US to leave Afghanistan under Bidens watch was signed by Trump... if Trump hadn't signed that agreement the US would probably still be there... which could have been a lot more fun really...  Trump signed a troop reduction deal with the Taliban and that was to end with a complete withdrawal... which it did under the Biden regime.

Trump will be too busy refilling the swamp in DC to stop any wars.

Trump didn't have the senate or congress... or a clue about how things worked. He surrounded himself with his own family and also fucking arseholes... Bolton, Pompeo, Haley...

This time around he has congress and the senate and he has Musk and Kennedy and Gabbard... think what you like of them but they are not idiots and they are anti war... Bolton would go to war if his cornflakes didn't make enough noise in the morning.

Reminds me of Obama with his claim of getting the US out of Iraq and closing Guantanamo.

Obama was a fraud... manufactured like that greenpiss girl everyone ignores now she has grown up.

Trump doesn't care about russia. Actually nobody does.

Trump can't have a third term and wont give a shit about what people think today.... in 20 years time he will be the guy who negotiated an end to a war in Europe that almost came to nuclear war, and if he can get any sort of cooperation going with Russia then it is actually likely to be of benefit to the US people... they might want to elect him for a third term.

Of course he will want to fight China and Iran so for Russia it is a no brainer... the US vs BRICS and BRICS wins every time because the US is a dirty colonial back stabber that is currently killing Russians and is happy about that.

Remember when the Americans went apeshit when someone suggested Putin had a bounty on US soldiers in Afghanistan?

Amusing they hold the lives of their soldiers so dear but don't think anyone else might care about their own soldiers too.

Especially because it's a lame duck term

His last chance to do something great to be remembered by...

3. When young American boys, not mercs and ununiformed special forces do it there is at least some plausible deniability but when American boys in American service start killing Russian forces, Putin will have no choice but to hit them and their logistics system. Trump will have no option but to start really bombing and rocketing Russian cities, Putin will do likewise to American cities and then someone will lob a nuke.

Trump balked at fighting Iran during his first term and you think he will send US soldiers to play cannon fodder to Russian artillery and air power?

Not going to happen... especially with Kennedy and Musk, who know working together makes more sense than taking on the big dog in the yard.

So do I think Trump changes things for the better? No, no I do not. I hope to God I am wrong, but I ain't seeing it.

I liked your post but have to disagree... compared with Killery and Harris, I think he was the better choice... Killery is crazy anti Russian because they obviously made a lot of money in the 1990s in Russia and Putin ended all that, while Harris is just a husk that the deep state will use as they please...  she makes Bush jnr look super smart...

Wasted 1/4 of all missiles they have left, for PR.
Unbelievable.

They are consistent... style over substance...

No it's all true because they said so bounce

Actually the smoke is critical... the colour of the smoke can indicate the type of target that was hit... for instance the target tonight is in Kiev and is a major government building and this is what it is expected to look like...

Hoooolyyyy shieeeet ....

That is more like a hypersonic missile... I wonder if the Zircon comes with a cluster munition warhead to achieve multiple hits on a ship sized target to increase the damage, or maybe Kh-32?

Are we sure it is a not a conventional weapon with submunitions?

This new weapon does the exact opposite.

Because the regular MIRV warheads do not have a navigation system, just the bus. He points them in the right direction and lets them loose.
After that they travel on a pure ballistic path to their targets.

These warheads are likely guided until impact.

using them to shoot down Russian cruise missiles that are inbound to Ukrainian targets inside the Ukraine.

They could barely protect Lviv.

IMPORTANT From the Announcements thread.

La Pain, God knows who he is, but a random poster on this thread, has clearly, unintentionally or not, brought us to this situation with the first 2 of 3 also by irregulars.


Will all us regulars please police the thread for the next one and ask the infringer to change his post before Garry gets to it?



Garry "Lapain has been given a 4 day ban for posting conversations in the Ukraine war thread after clear warnings to not do this to everyone.

This is ban number 3.

Next ban and the quote button goes."

Nobody in NATO cares about Russia does in the Ukraine or what it demonstrates there. They'll assume, rightly so, that Russia is only hitting the Ukraine because it's too scared to hit NATO targets or NATO territory in response to an attack against its own territory. Escalation will continue

So you are saying you know exactly what these weapons hit and that they are not HATO or US facilities?

Interesting... not sure how you could possibly know this...

The West got a warning yesterday about the IRBM launch. Hence the evacuation of embassies, etc.

So these might have been HATO country embassies... empty... but still there is likely a lot of kit in the US embassy they couldn't move that would be difficult to replace...

The only way the Russians can strike NATO targets, is if NATO strikes from NATO space.

They know this, we know this.

The US and her allies have joined the target list for this war... the distance up this list the Russians attack is completely up to them.

Conscious US decision to be added to the list... got a problem... tell it to biden.

So these weapons hit Yushmash... they make rockets.

Next ban and the quote button goes."

My advice is that if you don't know how to trim multiple posts down in a quote that you don't bother using the quote button at all and just reply with an @... so in this case I would post....

@JohninMK

And then my reply here...

For FP freaking out that this is enough... did anyone know the Russians had non nuclear kinetic warhead missiles of this type?

Maybe it is an anti ship weapon like the Chinese missiles...

Either way if it was an ICBM the HATO forces would have been shitting themselves wondering what power of nuclear warheads they would be carrying... a panic attack even... perhaps...

You hit **** all, we hit something of military value, and our missiles reach much further and come with a range of warheads well beyond anything you would ever give to Kiev.

I think it is funny and perfect... and who says they are done yet... Kiev had two attacks... one more coming from Russia?

flamming_python wrote:

If that's the response, and I don't know if it is or isn't - then that's crap

Nobody in NATO cares about Russia does in the Ukraine or what it demonstrates there. They'll assume, rightly so, that Russia is only hitting the Ukraine because it's too scared to hit NATO targets or NATO territory in response to an attack against its own territory. Escalation will continue

Shame that the threat to embassies in Kiev turned out to be a Western fake

Wrong. This changes the whole strategic calculus for NATO, because Russia apparently already has a tool to replace INF prohibited missiles and can with great effectiveness hit great numbers of targets all across Europe. If it is what it seems (we do not know yet), Russia decided to break their good will moratorium on such missiles and that inevitably increases risks for the US lapdogs in the continent, which still have some military planers and can understand very well what this means, in case they are tempted to scale up provocations to the point where they are not just a nuisance anymore.

I would wait for an official statement. This thing looks like a fake.

GarryB wrote:

Next ban and the quote button goes."

My advice is that if you don't know how to trim multiple posts down in a quote that you don't bother using the quote button at all and just reply with an @... so in this case I would post....

Its very harsh on those of us regulars here who use the quote button responsibly to have it taken away, not but our action, but by 2 out of 3 posters who appear once a blue moon who probably are not aware of the rule didn't spotted your warning or simply couldn't care less.

It is not as if it is the problem that it used to be as awareness has spread.