The Situation in the Ukraine. #1

First Russians, like Ukrainian Russians, need to decide whether they want to imitate USA and flirt West, plagiarizing and adopting as much as possible or grow independently.
I guess if Americans where more clever back in the 90s now Russia would have been a grateful part of pax Americana. I believe that Americans thought that they have finished with the Russians and they where not even imagining that they would dethroned by economic leadership in this millennial let alone before 2020.

Some time I wonder if Russia positing is really screwed up.

It has to face combined onslaught of US and Europe .....while its own partner in CSTO are quite weak and the only help it gets is from China that too only diplomatically nothing more.

While US and Europe can at whim change regiem , Impose Unilateral Economic Blockade like in Iran and go about doing Nasty things all over with impunity without any fear of blow back.

Not to mention the entire Media in Western circle never gets tired showing Russia as the big devil.

Economically Russia is too weak to do any thing like impose sanctions and perhaps nothing short of a total war can it hope to win.

a) You should not make the mistake to consider EU a coherent economic force

b) You should not make the mistake to consider NATO a coherent military force

c) Yeah like you said USA has the initiative no doubt. After all it is coming from uncontested leadership just 10 years ago. But like you say the key idea is money and this doesn't look good for USA midterm let alone long term. Many think tanks expect USA in 2050 to be third behind India as well.

d) Yeah Russia must be more principled in cases like Iran, Ukraine, North Korea etc. Reacting in response is always much more difficult. If you give time for the Western media to build the case then is too late to change the image. When if you start like "N.Koreans are cool guys who are progressive and independent and hence and forth" then you per-occupy public image.

It really need strong allies Economically and Militarily.

I wonder if Russia-China , NATO like alliance will work ?

Or make SCO a CSTO equivalent ...so China Leads SCO and CSTO is lead by Russia.

Its not that China too is happy with US and its constant poking and threatening posture.

Clearly Chinese play the game of world domination but at the rate they progress and at the rate US strength degenerate they don't even need to risk anything at this point. Yet if Russia play the pendulum like Yanukovich back and forth until the end probably when she wants will find that is difficult to hold a stable position. Russia will never be adored in West for too many reasons to mention here. So you need to create your own world I guess.

Austin wrote:
Economically Russia is too weak to do any thing like impose sanctions and perhaps nothing short of a total war can it hope to win.

its not like she can get sanctioned effectively either. IMO the tide would change sooner or later anyway, i hope that nobody can sanction weaker countries on a whim like we are seeing now. Also I think the US will not experience a collapse as drastic as russias and that china or india wont be superpowers ever.

The US and the west in general see themselves as world leaders... the morality of the human race so to speak... I hope the Russians never go down that path, because the level of hypocrisy required is very destructive.

Russia should not focus on beating any single country or collective group like NATO or EU.

Russia should make sure its own security is assured first by improving its own security capability which includes its own military forces and forming military alliances with nearby like minded countries.
the key is not to isolate your self and paint yourself in a corner.

Once that is achieved then the focus should be on trade and good relations to promote growth and development for all Russians... not just the ones in Moscow or the top people with the high paying jobs, but all Russians.
that means education and health care and creating job opportunities.

Austin wrote:Some time I wonder if Russia positing is really screwed up.

It has to face combined onslaught of US and Europe .....while its own partner in CSTO are quite weak and the only help it gets is from China that too only diplomatically nothing more.

While US and Europe can at whim change regiem , Impose Unilateral Economic Blockade like in Iran and go about doing Nasty things all over with impunity without any fear of blow back.

Not to mention the entire Media in Western circle never gets tired showing Russia as the big devil.

Economically Russia is too weak to do any thing like impose sanctions and perhaps nothing short of a total war can it hope to win.

1.) NATO is a colonial revanchist mechanism that preys upon weak 3rd-world countries with old and obsolete military power. If (and possibly when) NATO decides to attack, Russia's nuclear triad probably wipes out Europe & North America hundreds of times over. Just look at Syria, the NATO coalition collapsed under the thought of S-300's being delivered.

2.) The only country in the world that's had a consistently strong economy over the past 10 years was China, virtually everybody else is going threw tough times economically.

Makes a good read


How the American media misrepresent Putin, Sochi and Ukraine.

Distorting Russia

I cannot undertsand this for the life of me.

No Western so called "liberal democracy" would tolerate mobs of animals like the far right in the Ukraine.
So why the hell is Yanukovich or the police tolerating it?

In Britain, EVERYONE would be rounded up and getting HUGE jail sentences.
These were appalling events today. Surely its time for the miliary to round up all of the Nazi supporting scum?

I wonder if Yanukovich might call for assistance from Russia? This is terrible. I really hope not, but are things moving towards civil war?
If so, my view is force all the Nazi supporting vermin out of the country.

EDIT: I think Russia needs to prepare for the next steps. Seal the borders. Stop arms coming into the country, see that the army is onside. Perhaps neutralise any units that are not. Warn America that it can cause civil unrest in the US as well.

I can only think that the threat of civil war is the reason Yanukovich is not crushing the terrorists.

Firebird wrote:I cannot undertsand this for the life of me.

No Western so called "liberal democracy" would tolerate mobs of animals like the far right in the Ukraine.
So why the hell is Yanukovich or the police tolerating it?

You need to watch CNN (they have live coverage)...you'll see that it's merely peaceful protesters fighting for democracy and the rule of law...  
What I cannot understand is: This thing happened quite a lot in the past, HOW ON EARTH are people in Ukraine still deluded by the west...AGAIN!
'Fool me twice, that sort of thing'...

Firebird wrote: Warn America that it can cause civil unrest in the US as well.

How, pray tell?

macedonian wrote:

Firebird wrote:I cannot undertsand this for the life of me.

No Western so called "liberal democracy" would tolerate mobs of animals like the far right in the Ukraine.
So why the hell is Yanukovich or the police tolerating it?

You need to watch CNN (they have live coverage)...you'll see that it's merely peaceful protesters fighting for democracy and the rule of law...  
What I cannot understand is: This thing happened quite a lot in the past, HOW ON EARTH are people in Ukraine still deluded by the west...AGAIN!
'Fool me twice, that sort of thing'...

Because they want to be. They have a complex against Russia (the far right anyway), while the rest thinks that the EU will give them money, stability, reforms, a 'non-corrupt' political system and that they don't have to do anything. In terms of immediate priorities - it will give them a free pass to live & work in Europe. All the rest of the things they don't have to worry about right now, but they're sure it would work out.

They cannot accept any deal with Russia, because at best they think of it as nothing better then their own country (and thus not an example to learn from); while at worst - an enemy.

It ain't teh Western Jewish puppetmasters, its Ukrainians themselves.

Their population is so wound up in its chronic Russophobia (some justified some just absurd) that it is apparently completely blind to economic and political reality TO THEIR OWN DETRIMENT.
ANYTHING Russia does = Putin trying to subvert Ukraine. Hell, even if his goal was to make Ukraine a buffer, it is in Ukraine interest TO HAVE FUNCTIONAL RELATIONS with its economic sugar daddy and biggest trading partner.


Sinking ship, and hence why I keep harping that Russia needs to bail on that mess.

Hopefully in the meantime Russia's completely corrupt edifice dies out (yeah wishful thinking w/e) and the countries economy gets to where it could be, which is damn high.
Then where are the Ukrainians gonna go? Absolutely nowhere, they will beg for close relations with Russia economically.

All of you speak words of wisdom. I don't think that I have anything to add.
About Russia I think their idea is this:

"We control the situation undercover,
West can cause discomfort  but not actually threaten anything really nasty,
West cannot impose any serious economic alternative for Ukraine,
we are winning the PR game where it matters aka the CIS countries and even abroad to knowledgeable viewers,
Ukraine's opposition exposed as puppets,
we gain the silent majority of people who are suffering from all this chaos"

I know that some of those arguments are true. I hope most of them are true.
I think if needed Russia can deliver the decisive blow...even via military IF needed.
I am glad that Vlad is on charge this moments.

Military blow to whom? Salo factory?

Complainers are going to complain...

If Russia can help the Ukraine it will be seen as interference and Ukraine could have done even better on their own.

If Russia backs off and lets the Ukraine sink like a stone it will be Russias fault for not helping a neighbour in need.

There is nothing Russia can do that wont draw criticism including nothing.

I am in two minds... perhaps it might be best to let the Ukraine try the EU route and don't offer them any alternatives and let them learn how economically and politically they are tied(related) to Russia.

Or perhaps Russia should do what it is trying to do and support the Ukraine in its time of need and help it develop and grow.

There is certainly a lot more the west could have done for Russia in the 1990s and I sense a lot of resentment from Gorby over the west promising to welcome Russia into the international community if they got rid of communism that never really eventuated.

The real question is what might have happened if the US had adopted something like the Marshal plan to help Russia regain her feet rapidly and with less pain.

Of course the result would be western oil companies getting free reign over Russian oil and gas deposits and likely cash rich western companies buying up resources all over the place and having the west plundering a new space the way they did their colonies in centuries past.

The Russians would have had a more painless 1990s and early 2000s but would not be in the position they are now and there would be less resentment of the west and perhaps a different understanding of democracy etc.

Personally I think the way it has happened is best for Russians and the Russian future.

They learned very quickly that it was not just communist governments that lie to their people and most of the morality of the west is negotiable and even ignorable if there is money to be made.

GarryB wrote:Complainers are going to complain...

If Russia can help the Ukraine it will be seen as interference and Ukraine could have done even better on their own.

If Russia backs off and lets the Ukraine sink like a stone it will be Russias fault for not helping a neighbour in need.

There is nothing Russia can do that wont draw criticism including nothing.

I am in two minds... perhaps it might be best to let the Ukraine try the EU route and don't offer them any alternatives and let them learn how economically and politically they are tied(related) to Russia.

Or perhaps Russia should do what it is trying to do and support the Ukraine in its time of need and help it develop and grow.

There is certainly a lot more the west could have done for Russia in the 1990s and I sense a lot of resentment from Gorby over the west promising to welcome Russia into the international community if they got rid of communism that never really eventuated.

The real question is what might have happened if the US had adopted something like the Marshal plan to help Russia regain her feet rapidly and with less pain.

Of course the result would be western oil companies getting free reign over Russian oil and gas deposits and likely cash rich western companies buying up resources all over the place and having the west plundering a new space the way they did their colonies in centuries past.

The Russians would have had a more painless 1990s and early 2000s but would not be in the position they are now and there would be less resentment of the west and perhaps a different understanding of democracy etc.

Personally I think the way it has happened is best for Russians and the Russian future.

They learned very quickly that it was not just communist governments that lie to their people and most of the morality of the west is negotiable and even ignorable if there is money to be made.

You hit the nail, regardless of what Russia will do, the west will bark anyway.
If Russia is stupid enough to let stupid Ukraine go to EU sinking ship it will also give them permission to join NATO and fully open to the west since this is the entire plan of anglo-zionistic policy to weaken russia regardless what it costs and who to bribe or install how many puppets they see necessary to fit their needs and to complete their goal.

Like Lukashenko said, without Russia we are Fucked, same goes for Ukraine.

Werewolf wrote:
You hit the nail, regardless of what Russia will do, the west will bark anyway.
If Russia is stupid enough to let stupid Ukraine go to EU sinking ship it will also give them permission to join NATO and fully open to the west since this is the entire plan of anglo-zionistic policy to weaken russia regardless what it costs and who to bribe or install how many puppets they see necessary to fit their needs and to complete their goal.

Like Lukashenko said, without Russia we are Fucked, same goes for Ukraine.

For one I have to agree with Werewolf.
Sorry but giving Ukraine is not an option. It was the same stupidity like letting all republics to brake or lose all Eastern Europe.
Clever people don't repeat their mistakes especially when you can win.
West don't want to back down from a game they can't win and you will back down voluntarily from a game that you can't lose? How moronic is this?


PS I again see the square occupied after yesterday's events. Sorry this is the most incompetent thing I have ever seen.
Once you start recapturing  and they reply with killing, you finish your job the very first night even if this means to bring Mi-28s  into the game.
You don't let this forever.
You cut reinforcement routs, you build a wall around the occupants, you stop the traffic in the town. You burn their settlements.
You show around the globe that you are a state not a fu@@ing sh@@hole!!

Do you know which Eastern countries respect Moscow the most? Yeah Czech and Hungary because they were smashed by force.
Everywhere that Moscow saw a polite, impotent, face eg lithuania, romania etc they make fun of the giant.
Give them a lesson and don't care about complains. People respect those who fear. With US this worked like a charm with the exceptions when they went too far.
Breaking in is good, occupying without an end is bad.[/quote]

What i can't understand in this "riots" this "demonstrants" or better to say attempted murders use weapons, pistols, rifles, bricks, sticks and molotov cocktails and in lot of video footage i saw how they actually try to kill people with bricks throwing onto polices heads and throwing molotov cocktails at police crowds, this is attempted murder and no disgusting western country would even hesitate for DAYS to use life rounds against this specific armed terrorists.

Werewolf wrote:What i can't understand in this "riots" this "demonstrants" or better to say attempted murders use weapons, pistols, rifles, bricks, sticks and molotov cocktails and in lot of video footage i saw how they actually try to kill people with bricks throwing onto polices heads and throwing molotov cocktails at police crowds, this is attempted murder and no disgusting western country would even hesitate for DAYS to use life rounds against this specific armed terrorists.

No sir this is not Western problem. France will not solve Ukrainian problem anyway. This is a problem of Ukrainian public opinion, like I said above, who see and tolerate such phenomena instead of demanding from the government/president to finish this nonsense at all cost. In USA going against the President or the country is a killer for your PR stand. If in USA Kerry caught on tape taking lines from Lavrov this would have been the end of his political career in Ukraine this is a thing for your CV. Let as face the reality as it is. They are in an earlier stage of human development, more brutal, where civilized. logical, rational solutions can't be applied. Might sad but true.

I'd like to know what that moron Obama has to say. "Allies in the war on terror"?

More like state sponsor of terrorism by America. And now some of the EU.

@TR1, well Russia could cause a lot of mischief and worse in America. Backing "Muslim Brotherhood" type groups. Backing other Afro-American extremists. Backing American Indian calls for "further" independence. Supporting Mexican calls for transfer of California back to Mexico. Supporting Southerner calls for autonomy. Supporting Latin American drug cartels commit mayhem etc etc. Ofcourse many of these groups have no platform currently or even support. But America needs to remember that its civil stablity isn't assured. For instance, Black Americans called for independence not long ago.

Clearly Russia should now consider America an enemy state. Thats sad, but its also probably true.
Likewise with some of the EU.

The problem is, allow terrorists to act, and you are giving them credibility. Clearly Yanukovich feels nervous. I wonder how far the army would be behind Yanuk. vs the Far Right Western Ukr nuts. I also wonder how far Russia has drawn up military plans. You don't want the Ukraine's western border to allow arms and explosives into the country.

All thanks to that drunken idiot Yeltsin.. : (

To Firebird:

"well Russia could cause a lot of mischief and worse in America. Backing "Muslim Brotherhood" type groups. Backing other Afro-American extremists. Backing American Indian calls for "further" independence. Supporting Mexican calls for transfer of California back to Mexico. Supporting Southerner calls for autonomy. Supporting Latin American drug cartels commit mayhem etc etc. Ofcourse many of these groups have no platform currently or even support. But America needs to remember that its civil stablity isn't assured. For instance, Black Americans called for independence not long ago. "

You do realise of course, that only PR campaigns, support of NGOs, much less the "private armies" cost A LOT of money? In fact, so much, that Russia cannot afford it.

For example, look at the Ukrainian loan. Instead of Yanuk being showered with money (as is the case for SNC in Syria), we see a couple of billion transfers at a time, with big delays and pressure surrounding their use. It's obvious to anyone, that those loans come with HUGE preconditions about how, where, and when they'll be spent. That's because there's no way for Russia to just "buy their way out" because the west will ALWAYS be able to offer more.



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Brace yourselves, Mid Europeans are coming   


"Hungary supports the proposal to introduce sanctions against Ukraine

Hungary supports the imposition of sanctions against Ukraine if it will not solve the crisis in Kiev after protesters and security forces in clashes that killed and wounded dozens of people on Wednesday the Hungarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "We will support them," - said the representative of the Ministry of Gabor Kaleta Reuters news conference behind the scenes, in answer to the question of the Polish prompting the European Union to impose sanctions on the leaders of Kiev. "The Ukrainian government to address this situation, play a crucial role, and if it fails to fulfill its responsibilities, then it has to be forced (to do so) and international sanctions", - said G.Kaleta."

http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/world/ukraina-pasirode-zurnalisto-zuties-filmuota-medziaga.d?id=64065372#ixzz2tmJDoJNa




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Yikes   


Lvov is occupied Militia Stolen Weapons

Lviv night of protesters occupied the district militia department stolen weapons.
How to inform unian.net correspondent, on Wednesday reported a brief press conference in Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovnas . He added that the weapons employed by the Interior, Security Service of Ukraine and the county prosecutor's stolen . He stressed that it is not clear exactly how much the stolen weapons. Lviv mayor pointed out , the current special need "to ensure security and prevent the massacre , corporate and banking attacks . Well rather than inform unian.com correspondent, currently working in Lviv emergency phone 102. The building is torn militia activists , as well as seize and Galickio and Frankove Militia . Now, activists are trying to break into Lyčakovskio Militia . In fact, the situation in Lviv normal. Transport and handling systems are working normally , except for the central part of the city , where thousands of activists , making transport more difficult to move .

http://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/world/ukraina-pasirode-zurnalisto-zuties-filmuota-medziaga.d?id=64065372#ixzz2tmKmjcbo

haha using delfi.lt as a source.  I hope most active rioters will get a bullet or two, seriously, killing cops is fricking over the top, shows how civil and peaceful they are. Radicals should've been distanced from by moderate protesters, now it's their fault if some of them share same fate as troublemakers who use them as human shields. Ukraine is such a strange place. Still biggest joke is Yanukovitch. He betrayed all LEO's.

To Regular:
Oh, trust me, compared to some other "pearls", delfi.lt is rather objective  





"I hope most active rioters will get a bullet or two, seriously, killing cops is fricking over the top, shows how civil and peaceful they are."

Of course, killing the police is despicable, but I think, that they aren't doing that out of good life (mostly). Ukraine's been going to hell for 20 years now, if our countries would be the same, I'm sure many even in this board would resort to violence too.





"Still biggest joke is Yanukovitch. He betrayed all LEO's."

Well, it's quite easy to point to other's mistakes, while sitting comfortably in your room. But the truth is, being in Yanuk's shoes would be hard for everyone.
Let's speculate a little. If Yanuk would do nothing, and hope for the protests to wind down, the nazis may see this as weakness and come into action.
But if he sends T-64s and army to help "Berkut" clear the square, crack-down on opposition, the population anger may be widespread and help those very same nazis.
Kinda "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, if you ask me.

A truce has been declared the question is for how long?

If Ukraine joins EU will the south region of Ukraine will protest ?

The Ukraine is in a bad state, but these riots are not about the state the Ukraine is in now... it is about the solution chosen by its elected leader to accept Russia as the way out of the situation instead of choosing the EU.

The irony here is that if the Ukraine chooses the EU they will get much less financial support and in return will probably give up anything that might have been of value within their economy... the Eu doesn't give money for nothing.

The Russian and Chinese money would be an investment too and they will also expect returns but the returns wont be changes in legislation to allow Russian businesses more access the the Ukrainian market, it will be investment into Ukrainian businesses... so to get a decent return those Ukrainian businesses will need to succeed.

How ironic that the protesters are protesting against the choice of the side that wont see them as some far eastern backwater...

Of course these protesters are not thinking about the Ukraine because as soon as the Ukraine joins the EU these protesters will move to the UK or France or Germany...

These people are naive, ill-educated and indoctrinated with BS

How many of them have any knowledge of the Ukrainian economy, of the EU's economy and how it could actually help, realistically speaking.

Basically very few.
Therefore it's easy to get people to believe in any nonsense when the heart is there.

And heart there is. All too much of it. These people really do believe, really do want to believe that the EU stands for freedom, prosperity, etc.. while Russia is just corruption, grey buildings, babushkas, broken down infastructure, etc...
Their whole post-1991 identity has been based on proving how they different they are those evil, no-good, backward imperialistic Russians, and how much they belong to the European family.