The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Mike E wrote:

Regular wrote:Any chance of Ukraine getting exhausted to wage war any further? Surely, IMF funds can be used for military only.

Nope, they are steadily increasing their military budget and funding. Unless their (already bad) economic situation gets even worse, they will continue to fund the fighting.

The problem is even if they have the money to buy/produce weapons, they don't have the money to pay (or even feed) their soldiers, hence the reason why the hundreds of National Guard were protesting in front of Kiev's parliament.

Mike E wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Mike E wrote:

Regular wrote:Any chance of Ukraine getting exhausted to wage war any further? Surely, IMF funds can be used for military only.

Nope, they are steadily increasing their military budget and funding. Unless their (already bad) economic situation gets even worse, they will continue to fund the fighting.

The problem is even if they have the money to buy/produce weapons, they don't have the money to pay (or even feed) their soldiers, hence the reason why the hundreds of National Guard were protesting in front of Kiev's parliament.

Those zombies will fight even without payment... If anything Ukraine will fund its military to the point of economic starvation, at least that's what I think they'll do...

Things decidedly do not look good right now. Poroshenko has replaced that clown Geletei with a bona fide war criminal Col. Gen. Stepan Poltorak, a far more dangerous and evil character who used to be the commander in chief of the junta’s death squads (aka “national guard”).


Stepan Poltarak
The fact that Poroshenko would appoint such an odious figure indicates that he is trying to appease the neo-Nazis who are demanding a full resumption of hostilities. Interestingly, just like Geletei, Poltorak is not a military man but a person who made his career in the Ministry of Internal Affairs from where he was picked to head the notorious “national guard”.

On the same day, Pavel Gubarev, the “people’s governor” of Donetsk was the victim of an attack on his vehicle. Even though he was not hit by bullets, he has suffered very serious head trauma as a result of the crash of his car. He is now in a hospital in Russia in very serious condition.


Pavel Gubarev
The list of potential candidates who had an interest in murdering Gubarev is long. First and foremost, I would list the Ukrainian oligarchs whose assets Gubarev had promised to seize then, of course, the junta and various Neo-Nazis. Next, I cannot exclude the possibilityt that Gubarev could have been targeted by his own, Novorussian, political enemies and, finally, I would not exclude that the attack could have come from those circles in Russia who would see him as an obstacle for their plans for Novorussia. Needless to say, the hurray-patriots will blame Putin. Regardless of who ordered this murder, the fact that Gubarev is in very serious condition in a Russian hospital is very bad news as this is bound to have an extremely polarizing and distruptive effect on the ungoing feud between various Novorussian leaders.


click here for high res
Finally, there are numerous reports of Ukrainian attack all along the line of demarcation, including artillery strikes on Donetsk. The front has no moved much, but we are fare away from the “days of silence” which had been announced (see map).

Novorussian intelligence sources are constantly reporting large concentrations of Ukie armor in various locations and the arrival of more troops. At the same time, the work for the the creation of the buffer zone seems to be continuing. I am getting the sickening feeling that just like the Georgians who worked with the Russian peacekeepers right until Saakashvili ordered his troops to attack, the Ukies will contine working on the demarcation line right up until the moment of they will attack.


Victoria Nuland
Past experience shows that each time a top level US official visits Kiev, something very bad happens. Victoria Nuland (aka “f**k the EU”) has just concluded a visit to Kiev which received only very little coverage. The purpose of her trip was never clearly explained and after she left, no official results of the trip were announced.

Things look decidedly bleak and the fact that there will soon be elections in Banderastan and Novorussia will not make things better.

There is also a very real possibility that the US are considering dumping Poroshenko for another figure. I have an article on this tomorrow in Russia Insider and I will re-post it here. If that happens, we can expect an ever worse and more ruthless commander in chief for the Junta Repression Forces.

How bad could it get?


Superior morale and training: he will win
The military map shows that the Novorussian Armed Forces are in a fundamentally sound posture and that they should be able to prevent any deep Ukie incursion (unless,of course, the will decide to pull the JRF in to better incircle it). I have it from an excellent source (about which I will tell you in a couple of week), that the morale of the Novorussians is sky high, though I cannot imagine that the infighting inside the Novorussian leadership will not have negative impact. The fact that Russia has, for the time being, decided to turn off the “aid-spigot” must also be demoralzing and no amout of guarantess given by the Kremlin can change that. Still, the NAF are far better trained, often better equipped (in qualitative terms only), their current posture is sound and Russia will, I am sure and my sources fully concur with this, re-open the “aid spigot” should the JRF attack again. The Ukies have their usual advantage in numbers (men, armor, artillery). I therefore have no reasons to believe that they will be more successful the next time around.


Russian Airmobile attack
One more thing in conclusion: you have probably heard that western sources announced that the Russians had withdrawn (some vague) “forces” from the border; you might even have heard that the Russians confirmed it. This is all a big smokescreen. The Empire says “we scared the Russians” and the Russians reply “see how peace-loving a good we are?!”. In reality Russian forces are mobile enough that they don’t need to be close to the border to intervene in Novorussia. If a Russian intervention ever happens (say if Donetsk really risks being overrun by the Ukies), then this will mostly involved very mobile forces (special, airmobile and airborne), supported by fixed and rotary wing aircraft, which will give plenty of time for heavier forces to move in, if and when needed (which will not be very often). Check out the image above of Russian Airborne Forces training in the Caucasus: this is what a Russian intervention in Novorussia would like. Not long columns of tanks.

This article originally appeared in Foreign Affairs, which is published by the highly influential think tank Council on Foreign Relations.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko recently visited Washington, determined to put a new, more confident face on his beleaguered country. He made an emotional speech at both houses of the U.S. Congress and met with President Barack Obama.

In the end, he left with neither arms nor serious financial aid. Little wonder, then, that back home, Kievans are frustrated and anxious. Facing increasing economic hardship, they have little hope that things will get better.

Things couldn’t get much worse. Ninety-three percent of Ukrainians say that the economy is in bad shape, and they are right. The IMF forecasts a 15 to 20 percent decline in Ukraine’s GDP this year, and Kiev may need an additional $19 billion from the fund just to keep the government afloat.

Meanwhile, the hryvnia is in free fall. The devaluation, and a run on deposits (Ukrainians have withdrawn around 101 billion hryvnia since the beginning of the year), recently led to the collapse of 17 of Ukraine’s 180 banks. Fifteen more are close to default.

Alarmingly for average Ukrainians, electricity prices are expected to increase by 10 to 40 percent over the next year and gas for heat by 50 percent.

As winter approaches, Kiev is preparing to take extreme steps to counter the effects of the ongoing Russian gas embargo. It has already started importing coal from South Africa (production at many of the country’s mines has been disrupted by the conflict in the east) and turning off electricity twice a day to conserve resources.

Hot water, likewise, has been deemed a luxury; the capital city has been without it since July. Local TV stations regularly advertise burzhuikas, primitive stoves that run on wood, and call on people to install water and gas meters in order to save energy.

Older people are stocking up on candles, batteries, and flashlights.

In Kiev, where streets were routinely deadlocked before this year’s protests, cars are now few and far between as gasoline prices continue to skyrocket. (They’ve gone up by 50 percent since the beginning of the year.) Although pedestrians may rejoice, the empty roads are a sad reminder of how far the country has fallen. After years of increased level of consumption financed by credit, consumers these days buy only cheaper items, such as local vegetables or Belarusian dairy products. Local shops have even stopped stocking pricy meats and fish for lack of demand. Ukrainians are once again relying on home-grown vegetables, and, last week, a local TV channel launched a new cooking show to teach people how to create low-budget meals.
The government is in dire straits as well. Public-sector salaries have been slashed: people with five years of experience may earn less than $90 a month. To put this in perspective, the monthly utility bill for a two-room apartment in Kiev is about $45. Because it is expensive and cumbersome to fire people, employers simply require employees to take unpaid leave but still show up to work. And even in spite of such practices, unemployment is on the rise, recently topping 10 percent.  

Ukraine’s security is another sore spot: some in the West are predicting a disintegration of law and order inside the country thanks to the loss of trust in law enforcement agencies following the Euromaidan protests. In combination with an abundance of weapons, this may lead to the radicalization of political disputes. Ukraine’s external security, of course, is in even worse shape. In late August, pro-Russian forces easily defeated the disorganized Ukraine army at Ilovaisk, devastating several volunteer battalions. The lack of coordination and the absence of reliable and capable military units raises the question of whether the Ukrainian army could make good use of modern weapons even if the West decided to provide them.

Although anger at the presence of Russian troops inside Ukraine led to a renewed sense of patriotism among the Ukrainian population earlier this summer, economic and social realities are starting to bite. The government’s failure to communicate about why people are suffering or to address lingering questions about the persistence of corruption at senior levels of the military has fueled mistrust, as did the special status law granting Donbas, one of the disputed regions, self-government as part of the September 5 Minsk peace agreement, which Poroshenko pushed through parliament -- some argue in violation of the constitution -- by a secret vote.

Further, the recent Minsk cease-fire agreement revealed to Ukrainians just how little power their government has in the east. And the truce is a shaky one; any one of the three groups of rebel fighters -- self-organized locals, battalions of Russian mercenaries recruited through Russian officers’ unions, and Russian troops -- could undo the peace at any time. Many rebels would like to see more direct Russian engagement, believing that the territory currently controlled by separatists is not sufficient to establish a Transnistria-type semiautonomous frozen conflict zone, particularly without Mariupol, the key port city on the Azov Sea.

Although 73 percent of Ukrainians consider peace a key priority, 57 percent support the cessation of Kiev’s antiterrorist operation against the rebels because of the growing casualties. Indeed, there is little agreement among Ukrainians about how peace can be achieved. Many still believe that peace means military victory and compromise equals capitulation. Others believe that leaving the Donbas behind is necessary to move forward as a democratic, Western-looking, liberal nation. Even if the cease-fire holds, this split is unlikely to disappear. Ukraine may end up with a highly divided parliament after the upcoming October 26 elections, which will only further weaken the central government.

It’s time for the West to stop expecting Ukrainians to save the day all by themselves. But what can it do? For those who thought that the EU Association Agreement would be a panacea, an up-to-date estimate from the Ukrainian presidential administration suggests that trade liberalization would lead only to 0.61 percent, 0.62 percent, and 0.64 percent GDP growth over the next three years. And even trade liberalization with the EU is a distant hope: on September 12, Ukraine and the EU decided to suspend the trade part of the agreement until December 31, 2015. In part, the decision was made under Russian pressure, but holding off also means that much-needed customs duties on European products will continue to flow into Ukrainian state coffers.

Ukraine needs more than the current level of Western assistance. But the Ukrainian government also needs to pull its weight, promising (and delivering) transparency. Together with Ukrainian civil society groups, foreign governments and NGOs should also give closer scrutiny to the situation on the ground, doing due diligence on whom it is funding, keeping watch on government conduct, and pushing for economic reform are necessary. But Kiev also deserves a little credit. It faced a hard choice after Ilovaisk: either wage an all-out war with Russia or compromise. It chose compromise as the only viable option, even though it was a hard political sell and even though parliamentary elections loom. At the same time, Kiev and its supporters need to realize that, in the absence of civil dialogue, orders from the top and resolutions from closed-door sessions in parliament will make the Poroshenko administration increasingly look like the Yanukovych one -- perhaps with similar results.

higurashihougi wrote:Do you think there will be a significant weapon contract between Kyiv and Warswaza ?

http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/ukraine_poland_revival_of_cooperation_in_defense_industry_301738

Firebird wrote:So Nuland flew in, attempted to have Gubarev assassinated and has decided Scum-boda will be the new govt/president.

Once again, I'm starting to wonder what the hell Putin is doing.
You can't have a simple "democratic vote" here. Pro Russians have been terrorised out of the region, many millions were murdered in the Great Patriotic War - by the hohol scum. The East and South boycotts the sham elections. Or simply has its officials/candidates excluded from any aspect of public life in the region.

So now Scum-boda will dominate the bogus elections and gain more and more power.

You can't reason with Scum-boda/Shite Sektor etc. Its exactly like letting Al Qaeda run an election.Whether its converting Ukr generals with bribes or threats, or just bombing raids, Russia needs to show a firm stance. And that includes giving Nuland's kind a taste of their own medicine.

Firebird wrote:Cocksucker Farion talking about "removing from Russians from our lands".

Isn't it time someone dragged that skank behind a truck with some wire round its neck?

WTF

Firebird wrote:Cocksucker Farion talking about "removing from Russians from our lands".

Isn't it time someone dragged that skank behind a truck with some wire round its neck?

WTF

20 dead in Mariupol clashes-Ukraine
Ukrainian security forces killed about 20 pro-Russian rebels who tried to seize control of police headquarters in the eastern port city of Mariupol on Friday, the Interior Minister said.

Mike E wrote:Supposedly John Kerry "supports Russia's move to withdraw troops from Ukraine"! They still don't have any good evidence of Russia in Ukraine, yet they claim they are getting out of there? What kind of idiots do they think we are? Unbelievable that this crap goes unnoticed by Joe Shmoe, while they are all into watching CNN's reports of "Russian troop movement within Ukraine". Sickens me, and nothing that I can do about it... 

To think that many (most) American's believe that Russia is propaganda-filled! 

Russia has been inside Ukrainia since the 17th century.

against the invasion of Napoleon