kvs Tue Nov 25, 2014 5:47 am
magnumcromagnon wrote:I think you guys are giving the current Kiev regime too much credit. Ukraine never recovered from the austerity measures applied to it from the 1990's, and the current IMF austerity being applied will crush any hope of any stability or solidarity to Ukraine, the same Maidanuts who rioted over Yanukovich a year ago are now rioting over Porkyshenko. In 5 years time (if the current political economy continues) we may very well see Ukraine Balkanize like the former Yugoslavia, or larger portions of Ukraine ends up returning back to Russia over evident greener pastures. Considering how pension funds doubled for the elderly in Crimea since it's accession in to Russia, the later option may end up becoming reality.
I agree, the long term prospects for Ukraine are grim. The economic damage from the coup is enormous. It is laughable to see
estimates of a 5-6% GDP decline for 2014. This number is missing a zero. Ukraine has lost 25.4% of its exports from Donetsk
and Lugansk alone. It has also lost exports to Russia from Kharkov and other regions that make up at least a similar number.
The Kiev regime has banned military exports to Russia and these were of prime importance for Ukraine's trade with Russia, which
was the biggest trading partner it had. The Kiev regime has pretty much killed the aircraft maker Antonov. I cannot see Ukraine
not having a GDP decline this year at over 25%. This is Great Depression decline in one year.
The current media coverage is Orwellian in its information filtering. You would think nothing much is happening in Ukraine and
all the problems are in the Donbas. But pensioners are already feeling the pain in Kiev itself. Note how the west is not
providing its puppets in Kiev with serious aid money. Why is that? NATO is supposed to have everything in the bag. Follow
the money. They are not dishing it out because they know the the Kiev regime can fall any moment.
Putin knows that the process of decomposition in Ukraine is going strong and he just has to sit and make sure that the Donbas
is not overrun.