Khepesh Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:44 pm
The "cunning plan". It does not exist, it never existed, perhaps it exists now, I do not know. What happened in Kiev last year was a surprise, Putin himself has said so and that the operation to secure Crimea was "made on the hoof", and very cleverly. I suspect it was thought that the uprisings in Donbass, particulary Kharkov, would succeed and that Ukraine would have collapsed at that point, and from there we can only guess at what would have unfolded. That Kharkov did not fall will have been a surprise and is probably the reason we are now in difficulty. Some plan was of course developed, but rushed and perhaps with only the intention of trying to stabilise the situation, not accomplish any long term strategic objectives at that point. Slavyansk was a brilliant operation to distract attention and allow defensive forces to be formed to allow Donetsk and Lugansk to survive at least in the short term. So, what can we see as any sort of plan? Well it is clear from voentorg and what happened last August and at Debaltsevo that Donbass will not be merged. From this I suspect that it is hoped that Kiev will realise that they have lost at least Donetsk and Lugansk, and will find a way to save face and withdraw. Enter Washington, again, and irrationality enters and upsets everything. Yes, I see that to sit and wait for Kiev to collapse and then pick up the pieces is a good plan, but it is predicated on Kiev actually collapsing. Until the end of last year I went with this, but not now, I do not see Kiev being allowed to collapse, no matter what the cost, as having what is left of Ukraine as an American colony is far too important to loose. I know that there is the argument to sit and wait as time is on our side, and again I went with this until the end of last year, but my comments about Washington not wanting to loose the possibility of gaining Ukraine negate that view and I now that think that time is not on our side, but on that of Washington and that the later we leave this, then the worse the outcome. One aspect I will dismiss, and that is what the west thinks, and that eventually the west will see Kiev for what it is and throw them. The west does not think about Ukraine, it does not care. They have been told that Russia has invaded Ukraine and that Russia is Soviet Union v2.0 and that is what they will continue to believe so waiting for them to "see the light", is futile. The other aspect that we can sort of see, and presume is the plan, is to sit and wait for Kiev to collapse, yet what happens when days pass to weeks to months to a year or more, and no collapse? What other plan is there, anything other than simply hoping EU will wake up and stop taking orders from washington, do not bet on this. Hoping that Kiev will collapse, well, maybe, but anything seen to say this is likely, not that I see, only continued and increasing support from Washington. If the "cunning plan" is sit and wait, then we wait for US Army to return in strength to Europe, and they already negotiate to do this, and I believe that no matter what happens in Ukraine we will soon have coldwar v2.0. Personally I actually admire Putin, I think he is by far the best leader of any country, but he is not God, and I think he is in a bind over Ukraine and struggles to find a solution. I don't think waiting is the solution and I do not think that an operation to push back ukrops artillery from Donetsk will cause any more problems than there are already other than wailing and gnawing, let them.
Last edited by Khepesh on Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : typo)
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