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Flagship Victory wrote:If I were a Donetsk resident, I wouldn't bother relying on NAF. I'd buy a gun off the black market and become a vigilante, hunting down Maidan soldiers like Batman.
Karl Haushofer wrote:Flagship Victory wrote:If I were a Donetsk resident, I wouldn't bother relying on NAF. I'd buy a gun off the black market and become a vigilante, hunting down Maidan soldiers like Batman.
There is a big danger in a partizan war. The junta would probably start killing way more civilians than they currently do if the civilians started making partizan attacks agains them. Remember what Nazi Germans did to Soviet civilian population to revenge partizan attacks.
Contrary to my expectations — and those of most other observers — the situation in eastern Ukraine has not so far spiraled into renewed war.
The reason for this is the deteriorating financial situation in Ukraine itself.
Despite pressure from the IMF talks between Ukraine and its private creditors remain deadlocked. This has led some of the ratings agencies to predict that Ukraine will fall into formal default this month.
The IMF’s indication that it would maintain its support for Ukraine has simply triggered a demand from the Russians that the next $5 billion tranche of IMF funding Ukraine should be used to repay the $3 billion Ukraine owes Russia, which is due for repayment this year.
It seems that the IMF’s staff is now increasingly leaning to the Russian view that this debt is indeed public debt. If so, then unless the IMF Board is willing to overrule the opinion of its own staff – which would be extremely controversial and might have serious legal consequences, Ukraine might shortly find itself cut off from private lending and in receipt of only limited funding from the IMF.
As for other alternative sources of Western funding, the EU’s commitment to provide Greece with a third 86 billion euro bailout further reduces the funds available for Ukraine.
It is nonetheless likely that it has been the need to bring the negotiations with the IMF and with Ukraine’s private creditors to a successful conclusion that has been the key factor in deterring Ukraine from resuming the offensive in eastern Ukraine. Back in the winter the IMF warned that any program to support Ukraine would fail in case of a renewal of the war, which all but confirmed that the IMF would halt its programme if the war resumed. With Ukraine becoming increasingly dependent on the IMF as alternative sources of external funding are closed off, this has become a major obstacle to a renewal of the war.
None of this however is to be taken to mean that the situation in eastern Ukraine is stable.
As predicted, the Ukrainian government has reneged on the commitments it made in Minsk.
It refuses to negotiate with the leaders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, whom it continues to call terrorists. It has maintained the economic blockade.
There has been no negotiated law granting special status, no elections held in accordance with such a law and no discussions for a new constitution. On all these questions Kiev has purported to legislate unilaterally, imposing on the Donbass its own conceptions, which continue to reflect its unitary ideology.
Though there has been no general offensive, there is also no peace. Shelling of the Donbass towns continues at various levels of intensity and fighting between the Ukrainian army and militia units repeatedly takes place.
Meanwhile, much as he did before the resumption of the fighting in January this year, Poroshenko has again been bragging about the revival of the Ukrainian army, with claims that the number of Ukrainian troops on the front line has once again been brought up to 60,000 – which was roughly their number at the start of the offensive on 30th June 2014.
These claims, understandably enough, cause great alarm and are scarcely compatible with a sincere desire for peace. They are in fact as likely to be untrue as were the identical claims Poroshenko made before the resumption of the fighting in January. The reported mutiny of an entire Ukrainian tank battalion is almost certain to be a better reflection of the true state of the Ukrainian army than Poroshenko’s boasts.
The current situation is best described therefore not as a frozen conflict but as a frozen war.
A frozen conflict requires some degree of acceptance — however grudging — of the status quo.
In Ukraine that acceptance does not exist – on either side.
In the absence of the negotiations envisaged by the deal done in Minsk the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics exist in limbo – under blockade, facing current shelling, without a proper legal status and without full control of the territory they claim.
The Ukrainian government for its part cannot bring itself to recognize or accept the separate identities of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, but lacks the means to suppress them.
The situation is extremely unstable and very dangerous.
This is done so that when the inevitable Ukraine attack demanded by nationalists and the US comes it will be impossible to blame the rebels
After that the rebels stand a good chance of neutralizing Ukraine attack and moving on the counter-offensive
At which point it is unlikely Poroshenko will be able to maintain power
Question is, is he likely to be replaced by a pro-peace or an even more pro-war faction?
..........................continues...........
Rodinazombie wrote:sepheronx wrote:Rodinazombie wrote:People need to understand the difference between removing weapons of a certain calibre and withdrawing its forces completely. NAF has removed the weapons stated, but not troops, so ukies arent just going to walk in unopposed, as soon as they try and contact is made., the tanks will be back.
Shirokino is different as they completely demilitarised the area, allowing ukies to just stroll in. This is different.
What is going on in Shiokino? Did osce demand PUkes leave?
As far as I know, please correct me if im wrong. Unilateral demilitarisation (christ that sounds straight out of the state dept) of the town was agreed, NAF honoured it and pulled out but ukies just strolled right in and took over, completely against the agreement.
As for the osce, they made some vague comments about it but didnt address the issue at all. Considering this is organised by them, you would think they would force both parties to adhere to the agreements, but sadly thy act much like the eu did when yanuk was toppled.
PapaDragon wrote:
Saker is inclined to agree with us
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/zakharchenko-deinego-and-pushilin-have-set-trap-poroshenko/ri8834
If Poroshenko Attacks His Days Are Numbered
East Ukraine rebels are going out of their way to show their interest in peace even as they have never been militarily stronger
This is done so that when the inevitable Ukraine attack demanded by nationalists and the US comes it will be impossible to blame the rebels
After that the rebels stand a good chance of neutralizing Ukraine attack and moving on the counter-offensive
At which point it is unlikely Poroshenko will be able to maintain power
Question is, is he likely to be replaced by a pro-peace or an even more pro-war faction?
..........................continues...........
sepheronx wrote:Rodinazombie wrote:sepheronx wrote:Rodinazombie wrote:People need to understand the difference between removing weapons of a certain calibre and withdrawing its forces completely. NAF has removed the weapons stated, but not troops, so ukies arent just going to walk in unopposed, as soon as they try and contact is made., the tanks will be back.
Shirokino is different as they completely demilitarised the area, allowing ukies to just stroll in. This is different.
What is going on in Shiokino? Did osce demand PUkes leave?
As far as I know, please correct me if im wrong. Unilateral demilitarisation (christ that sounds straight out of the state dept) of the town was agreed, NAF honoured it and pulled out but ukies just strolled right in and took over, completely against the agreement.
As for the osce, they made some vague comments about it but didnt address the issue at all. Considering this is organised by them, you would think they would force both parties to adhere to the agreements, but sadly thy act much like the eu did when yanuk was toppled.
So why hasnt NAF threatened OSCE and PUkes over it rather than staying quiet. Or shell it.
Yes I agree and I actually wrote a similar post earlier. If the NAF falls it will be all over. No partizan war will emerge.Rodinazombie wrote:Karl Haushofer wrote:Flagship Victory wrote:If I were a Donetsk resident, I wouldn't bother relying on NAF. I'd buy a gun off the black market and become a vigilante, hunting down Maidan soldiers like Batman.
There is a big danger in a partizan war. The junta would probably start killing way more civilians than they currently do if the civilians started making partizan attacks agains them. Remember what Nazi Germans did to Soviet civilian population to revenge partizan attacks.
There will no no partisan war, IF ukies win,it would be like in kharkov or odessa, small acts of sabotage, plenty of political repression and brainwashing, and lots of crime no doubt., but no partisan war. The people clearly dont have the stomach for it.
JohninMK wrote:Interesting update from OSCE. TASS excerpt, full report at http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/173666
VIENNA, July 20. /TASS/. Observers of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission say in their daily report on Monday that they witnessed the pullback of two columns of weapons of under 100mm caliber from the line of contact in the troubled Donbas region.
The report said: "The SMM was invited on 19 July by the Russian Federation Lieutenant-General, head of the Russian Federation side to the JCCC, to observe what he described as the withdrawal of "DPR" MBTs and weapons under-100mm calibre from the contact line". "The SMM, along with media representatives, first followed the Russian Federation JCCC and "DPR" delegation to Lozove ("DPR"-controlled, 13km west of Donetsk city), where it observed a column of three MBTs (T-64) move approximately 1.28km south-east and into a forest near the town," the report said. "Then around Novolapsa ("DPR"-controlled, 47km south of Donetsk), the SMM observed four BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles drive east approximately 4.3km and park in a forest — with the journalists filming the event with the use of a camera drone," it continued.
Possible withdrawal of such weapons had been discussed at Minsk talks on a settlement in Donbas but no agreement on the matter was reached with Kiev. The two republics have decided on unilateral withdrawal in the interests of a speedy peace settlement.
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine has inspected heavy weapon holding areas to discover that some of them have been abandoned and not all previously recorded weapons was in situ as some of them, the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine said in its annual report.
"On 18 July, the SMM revisited 11 Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapon holding areas. While their locations comply with Minsk withdrawal lines, at four of the sites the SMM was not able to conclude that all previously recorded weapons were in situ. At one site, the SMM observed that four multiple launcher rocket systems (MLRS) (BM-21 Grad, 122mm) were missing and that the site had been abandoned. At a second site, the SMM observed three MLRS (BM-21 Grad, 122mm) were missing. The SMM found a third site abandoned, and with none of the six previously recorded self-propelled howitzers (2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm) in situ. At a fourth site the SMM observed that two of 10 previously recorded self-propelled artillery guns (2S3 Akatsiya, 152mm) were missing," the SMM report said.
"On 19 July, the SMM revisited two "DPR" heavy weapon holding areas," the report went on to say. "At one site, the SMM was denied access to confirm the serial numbers on six towed antitank guns… At the other site, the SMM observed that one self-propelled howitzer (2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm) was missing," the SMM said.
Just in case you missed it the UAF bit was also in exclamation marks. This is normal in journalism when quoting from another source.Flagship Victory wrote:JohninMK wrote:Interesting update from OSCE. TASS excerpt, full report at http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/173666
VIENNA, July 20. /TASS/. Observers of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission say in their daily report on Monday that they witnessed the pullback of two columns of weapons of under 100mm caliber from the line of contact in the troubled Donbas region.
The report said: "The SMM was invited on 19 July by the Russian Federation Lieutenant-General, head of the Russian Federation side to the JCCC, to observe what he described as the withdrawal of "DPR" MBTs and weapons under-100mm calibre from the contact line". "The SMM, along with media representatives, first followed the Russian Federation JCCC and "DPR" delegation to Lozove ("DPR"-controlled, 13km west of Donetsk city), where it observed a column of three MBTs (T-64) move approximately 1.28km south-east and into a forest near the town," the report said. "Then around Novolapsa ("DPR"-controlled, 47km south of Donetsk), the SMM observed four BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles drive east approximately 4.3km and park in a forest — with the journalists filming the event with the use of a camera drone," it continued.
Possible withdrawal of such weapons had been discussed at Minsk talks on a settlement in Donbas but no agreement on the matter was reached with Kiev. The two republics have decided on unilateral withdrawal in the interests of a speedy peace settlement.
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine has inspected heavy weapon holding areas to discover that some of them have been abandoned and not all previously recorded weapons was in situ as some of them, the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in Ukraine said in its annual report.
"On 18 July, the SMM revisited 11 Ukrainian Armed Forces heavy weapon holding areas. While their locations comply with Minsk withdrawal lines, at four of the sites the SMM was not able to conclude that all previously recorded weapons were in situ. At one site, the SMM observed that four multiple launcher rocket systems (MLRS) (BM-21 Grad, 122mm) were missing and that the site had been abandoned. At a second site, the SMM observed three MLRS (BM-21 Grad, 122mm) were missing. The SMM found a third site abandoned, and with none of the six previously recorded self-propelled howitzers (2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm) in situ. At a fourth site the SMM observed that two of 10 previously recorded self-propelled artillery guns (2S3 Akatsiya, 152mm) were missing," the SMM report said.
"On 19 July, the SMM revisited two "DPR" heavy weapon holding areas," the report went on to say. "At one site, the SMM was denied access to confirm the serial numbers on six towed antitank guns… At the other site, the SMM observed that one self-propelled howitzer (2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm) was missing," the SMM said.
What's the point of showing PR to OSCE? OSCE is nothing but a western stooge. The way OSCE puts DPR in quotation marks clearly shows OSCE's disdain of NAF.
Комсомольская Правда wrote:Отвод вооружений в районе Горловки / Withdrawal of weapons in the region Gorlovka
Громадське ТБ Дніпро wrote:Duk "Right Sector" prostyvsya company commander with "Green"
Translated from Ukrainian by J.Hawk
Tomorrow, on Tuesday July 21, the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (sic) US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Pyatt will arrive in the Transcarpathia Region. Mukachevo.net learned it from government sources.
The diplomat plans to meet with the region's leaders in Uzhgorod. The ambassador intends to learn the local authorities' opinion on the situation in the region. There is little doubt the ambassador's visit is connected with the recent gun battle in Mukachevo.
J.Hawk's Comment: His Royal Highness Sir Pyatt shall deign to breathe the same air as the lowly mortals of a remote province of a Category III vassal! He might not realize this (he probably doesn't), but trips like that do little to improve the sense, among ordinary Ukrainians, that Ukraine is a sovereign, independent, self-governing country capable of controlling its own destiny.
Which of course it isn't, but one should at least maintain appearances!
Say, isn't that Don Quixote in the photo's backdrop? And do I detect a certain irony in Mukachevo.net describing him as "Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary"? Just cut to the chase and refer to him as Viceroy. Saves ink and paper.
PapaDragon wrote:J. Hawk's comment is pure gold!
Pyatt to visit Transcarpathia
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/pyatt-to-visit-transcarpathia.html
Translated from Ukrainian by J.Hawk
Tomorrow, on Tuesday July 21, the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (sic) US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Pyatt will arrive in the Transcarpathia Region. Mukachevo.net learned it from government sources.
The diplomat plans to meet with the region's leaders in Uzhgorod. The ambassador intends to learn the local authorities' opinion on the situation in the region. There is little doubt the ambassador's visit is connected with the recent gun battle in Mukachevo.
J.Hawk's Comment: His Royal Highness Sir Pyatt shall deign to breathe the same air as the lowly mortals of a remote province of a Category III vassal! He might not realize this (he probably doesn't), but trips like that do little to improve the sense, among ordinary Ukrainians, that Ukraine is a sovereign, independent, self-governing country capable of controlling its own destiny.
Which of course it isn't, but one should at least maintain appearances!
Say, isn't that Don Quixote in the photo's backdrop? And do I detect a certain irony in Mukachevo.net describing him as "Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary"? Just cut to the chase and refer to him as Viceroy. Saves ink and paper.
Seriously, what happened to US diplomacy? Back when I was a wee lad they were best in business.
These new guys that are running the show today are total noobs...
PapaDragon wrote:
Good stuff here, good stuff
''Right Sector loses its collective mind?''
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/right-sector-loses-its-collective-mind.html
Rodinazombie wrote:PapaDragon wrote:J. Hawk's comment is pure gold!
Pyatt to visit Transcarpathia
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/pyatt-to-visit-transcarpathia.html
Translated from Ukrainian by J.Hawk
Tomorrow, on Tuesday July 21, the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (sic) US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Pyatt will arrive in the Transcarpathia Region. Mukachevo.net learned it from government sources.
The diplomat plans to meet with the region's leaders in Uzhgorod. The ambassador intends to learn the local authorities' opinion on the situation in the region. There is little doubt the ambassador's visit is connected with the recent gun battle in Mukachevo.
J.Hawk's Comment: His Royal Highness Sir Pyatt shall deign to breathe the same air as the lowly mortals of a remote province of a Category III vassal! He might not realize this (he probably doesn't), but trips like that do little to improve the sense, among ordinary Ukrainians, that Ukraine is a sovereign, independent, self-governing country capable of controlling its own destiny.
Which of course it isn't, but one should at least maintain appearances!
Say, isn't that Don Quixote in the photo's backdrop? And do I detect a certain irony in Mukachevo.net describing him as "Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary"? Just cut to the chase and refer to him as Viceroy. Saves ink and paper.
Seriously, what happened to US diplomacy? Back when I was a wee lad they were best in business.
These new guys that are running the show today are total noobs...
Im only a mere 29 year old, but even i remember the days where US diplocmacy, even if still morally questionable, was very classy and smooth. They did things the right way without people noticing or giving em reason to feel slighted or get their backs up.
Now, its like they have a list of how not to do it, and orders to do the exact opposite of that
PapaDragon wrote:Rodinazombie wrote:PapaDragon wrote:J. Hawk's comment is pure gold!
Pyatt to visit Transcarpathia
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/pyatt-to-visit-transcarpathia.html
Translated from Ukrainian by J.Hawk
Tomorrow, on Tuesday July 21, the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (sic) US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Pyatt will arrive in the Transcarpathia Region. Mukachevo.net learned it from government sources.
The diplomat plans to meet with the region's leaders in Uzhgorod. The ambassador intends to learn the local authorities' opinion on the situation in the region. There is little doubt the ambassador's visit is connected with the recent gun battle in Mukachevo.
J.Hawk's Comment: His Royal Highness Sir Pyatt shall deign to breathe the same air as the lowly mortals of a remote province of a Category III vassal! He might not realize this (he probably doesn't), but trips like that do little to improve the sense, among ordinary Ukrainians, that Ukraine is a sovereign, independent, self-governing country capable of controlling its own destiny.
Which of course it isn't, but one should at least maintain appearances!
Say, isn't that Don Quixote in the photo's backdrop? And do I detect a certain irony in Mukachevo.net describing him as "Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary"? Just cut to the chase and refer to him as Viceroy. Saves ink and paper.
Seriously, what happened to US diplomacy? Back when I was a wee lad they were best in business.
These new guys that are running the show today are total noobs...
Im only a mere 29 year old, but even i remember the days where US diplocmacy, even if still morally questionable, was very classy and smooth. They did things the right way without people noticing or giving em reason to feel slighted or get their backs up.
Now, its like they have a list of how not to do it, and orders to do the exact opposite of that
I have five years on you so I remember that same period and it's just like you said, classy and smooth before, now- amateur hour...
OSCE reports seeing 20,021 men in armed uniform cross between Russia and Donbas.PapaDragon wrote:Rodinazombie wrote:PapaDragon wrote:J. Hawk's comment is pure gold!
Pyatt to visit Transcarpathia
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/07/pyatt-to-visit-transcarpathia.html
Translated from Ukrainian by J.Hawk
Tomorrow, on Tuesday July 21, the Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary (sic) US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Pyatt will arrive in the Transcarpathia Region. Mukachevo.net learned it from government sources.
The diplomat plans to meet with the region's leaders in Uzhgorod. The ambassador intends to learn the local authorities' opinion on the situation in the region. There is little doubt the ambassador's visit is connected with the recent gun battle in Mukachevo.
J.Hawk's Comment: His Royal Highness Sir Pyatt shall deign to breathe the same air as the lowly mortals of a remote province of a Category III vassal! He might not realize this (he probably doesn't), but trips like that do little to improve the sense, among ordinary Ukrainians, that Ukraine is a sovereign, independent, self-governing country capable of controlling its own destiny.
Which of course it isn't, but one should at least maintain appearances!
Say, isn't that Don Quixote in the photo's backdrop? And do I detect a certain irony in Mukachevo.net describing him as "Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary"? Just cut to the chase and refer to him as Viceroy. Saves ink and paper.
Seriously, what happened to US diplomacy? Back when I was a wee lad they were best in business.
These new guys that are running the show today are total noobs...
Im only a mere 29 year old, but even i remember the days where US diplocmacy, even if still morally questionable, was very classy and smooth. They did things the right way without people noticing or giving em reason to feel slighted or get their backs up.
Now, its like they have a list of how not to do it, and orders to do the exact opposite of that
I have five years on you so I remember that same period and it's just like you said, classy and smooth before, now- amateur hour...
Flagship Victory wrote:Just when you thought OSCE can't get any lower as a stooge.
http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-live-day-518-heavy-fighting-across-front-with-civilian-casualties/
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