Khepesh Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:46 am
Interesting article by Rostislav Ishchenko from yesterday http://russkiymir.ru/publications/194700/ In general terms he is saying what we all know, that Ukraine and America are in a bad position, particulary as regards the EU, and will have problems whatever they do. That Poroshenko is between a rock and a hard place and knows he will face defeat if he attacks, or defeat from internal fractures if he does nothing. Ishchenko also points out that if there is no war, then what do all these thousands of ykrops troops do, many of them ideological and pumped up for "peremoga". Likely they will take Kiev. The conclusion I take from the article is that the best of two bad options, to attack or to wait, is to attack. I think what happens will depend, not so much on Washington ordering him to do something as I do not think the control is as direct as that, but on what guarantees he has been given about what support, military/political, he will be given when ukrops are facing defeat on the battlefield, and if he believes that the support will occur.
Further to ukrops starting to admit casualties on the Volnovakha/Mariupol front, they are also saying they are attacked directly by Russian forces, who suffer casualties that are immediately transported back across the border. This is mood music to get the public prepared for an announcement of sudden offensive by "Russia" and Kiev then launching its offensive as a "defensive" measure. It's human nature to hang the possibility of events happening on certain dates, anniversaries etc, so the next date to watch is Sunday, the "Day of the City" for Donetsk, but I am not holding my breath for anything to happen on that day.
Edit: An urgent breifing to take place in Kiev at 1600 local about the "Russian agression" at Gleiwitz in Ukraine
Last edited by Khepesh on Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:13 am; edited 1 time in total