The Situation in the Ukraine. #22

higurashihougi wrote:Kyiv's Minister of Economic Development claimed that Ukraina's GDP can achieve 500 mil USD... 20 years later.

Well, let's wait...

https://eadaily.com/news/2015/10/23/ministr-ekonomiki-ukrainy-sprognoziroval-vvp-v-500-mlrd-no-cherez-20-let

higurashihougi wrote:Kyiv's Minister of Economic Development claimed that Ukraina's GDP can achieve 500 mil USD... 20 years later.

Well, let's wait...

https://eadaily.com/news/2015/10/23/ministr-ekonomiki-ukrainy-sprognoziroval-vvp-v-500-mlrd-no-cherez-20-let

Analyzing the chaotic situation around Sunday's upcoming local elections in Ukraine's regions, political analyst Alexander Vasilyev suggests that with local political forces presenting an ever-growing challenge to national parties, federalization in one form or another will become a reality whether President Poroshenko agrees to it or not.

In his analysis, published Saturday by Lenta.ru, Vasilyev, a former member of Ukraine's parliament from the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, noted that as attempts by the president to use national parties to consolidate support in the regions fail, local forces, including regional political heavyweights, anti-Kiev regionalists and candidates belonging to local oligarchs are set to win seats in cities and in regional legislatures.

As a result, Sunday's elections will demonstrate just how far centrifugal forces have advanced since parliamentary elections last fall, creating a situation where instead of the traditionally expected west-center-east divide, Ukraine could turn into a quilt-like patchwork of conflicting power groups, many of them resistant to Kiev's control. This, in Vasilyev's view, will ultimately lead either to Kiev acceding to federalization, or to the country's further destabilization and breakup.

Despite Poroshenko's attempt to pass himself off as a unifier, looking for support from all the country's regions in equal measure, Vasilyev suggests that in fact, his party, "the Poroshenko Bloc, is turning into a typical regional project, with support concentrated in central Ukraine, and having little chance for victory anywhere else."

The analyst notes that "this is well illustrated, for example, in the mayoral campaign. Candidates from the Poroshenko Bloc are considered the unconditional favorites to win only in Chernihiv [north-central Ukraine] and Kiev…The president's candidates have a chance to reach the second round of voting in some other cities, but there are territories where even the government's staunchest supporters are putting pressure on the Poroshenko Bloc."

Furthermore, Vasilyev explains that things look even worse for pro-presidential forces in western Ukraine and the country's southeast. "For example, in the local elections taking place in Lviv and Chernivtsi, representatives from Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk's People's Front are looking to compete with the Poroshenko Bloc, despite promises to abandon the race. This works only to disorient the pro-government electorate."

As for Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine's second and third largest cities, respectively, the analyst points out that "the Poroshenko Bloc is giving them up entirely, without any struggle. The only exception in the country's southeast is Odessa. There presidential protégé Mikheil Saakashvili is on the case, managing to force several local political heavyweights to drop out of local races. But even these measures may only work to give pro-presidential forces access to the second round." With that said, it's even possible that the unyielding mayor of Odessa, former Party of Regions politician Gennady Truhanov, may still win in the first round.

National Opposition Parties Not Doing Much Better

Despite the political advantage of a deteriorating socio-economic situation, which can easily be blamed on corruption and government incompetence, Vasilyev notes that none of Poroshenko's major national opposition party opponents seem to be doing much better against local political forces.

This includes Oleh Lyashko's Radical Party, which seems to have little chance of making political inroads in any of the country's major races for city council or regional assembly. It also includes Yulia Tymoshenko's Fatherland Party. "Fatherland's supporters will try and hold on to the mayoral seats in Sumy and Zhytomyr, and to form small fractions in city councils in Kiev and in her native Dnipropetrovsk, but that's about it," the analyst notes.

As for the Opposition Bloc, consisting of representatives from the disbanded Yanukovych-aligned Party of Regions, Vasilyev explains that despite being expected to make a strong showing in the country's southeast, "up to this point, they have made little tangible progress. Among the large cities, only in the industrial center of Mariupol and Krivoy Rog are candidates from the Opposition Bloc clearly in the lead, and only owing to oligarch Rinat Akhmetov's support. Squeezed out of his fiefdom in Donetsk by a popular uprising, he is now attempting to maintain political influence in the areas home to his assets. Meanwhile, key southeastern centers including Odessa and Kharkiv do not even have candidates from the Opposition Bloc."

Dnipropetrovsk oligarch Igor Kolomoysky has also created several regional movements, buying up an eclectic mix of politicians, including former Party of Regions officials (forming the Rebirth Party), and the Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP), a collection of radicals and outright neo-Nazis including Dmytro Yarosh and Andriy Biletsky. Kolomoysky's top priority, according to Vasilyev, is to win in his home base of Dnipropetrovsk.

Regionalist Candidates Lead the Pack

With virtually all the large national parties expected to make a poor showing, Vasilyev suggests that 'regionalist' elites have taken advantage of the weakening center, creating a series of local projects aimed at broadening their autonomy.

The analyst explains that "although regional parties are not provided for under Ukrainian law, in reality more and more emerge every year. The law can be gotten around rather easily: local oligarchs purchase the founding documents of one of the previously registered political parties (and there are over 200 of them) and provide it with the necessary political and economic assets only in their home bases. In the rest of the country, such parties exist only on paper."

The analyst points out that today, "politicians from a variety of purely local projects are leading or seriously competing with national parliamentary parties across virtually the entire country."

Vasilyev recalls that division along regional lines "is not something new for Ukraine, with the country divided in its recent history into the canonical west, center and southwest. However, now the situation has changed, and the country is dividing even further (for now, only in the electoral sense) into individual pieces controlled by local interests –in the best case, by region, in the worst –by individual city."

Hence, the analyst concludes that "if the trend toward regional independence from the central government continues, the country will face a real federalization…with the prerequisites for the emergence of regional separatism emerging in places, together with attempts to throw off Kiev's control."

Vasilyev notes that "if before these elections, Kiev controlled the situation in the regions, at least in the legal sense, now, in the case of victory by purely local forces following the elections, some regions may attempt to demonstrate their power before the central authorities, for example, by trying to redistribute tax revenues in the aim of hanging on to funds for the local budget."

"Such an attempt has been made in the past, with members of the Zaporizhia city council asking Poroshenko for special status. At that time, the president refused the regional leaders, stressing that there would be no federalization. But on Sunday the situation may change…with the local component in the system of regional power increasing dramatically, allowing regional deputies and mayors to ignore the orders of the president outright. And then Kiev will either have to adapt to the status quo (i.e. to change the status of regions under the constitution) or prepare for the loss of a unitary Ukraine."

Independent journalist Andrei Babitskiy argues that Moscow's diplomatic efforts to ensure peace in eastern Ukraine have caught Kiev off-guard, catching President Petro Poroshenko in a 'peace trap' and preventing him from starting a new military offensive.

In an article for Latvian news website Vesti.lv published earlier this week, Babitsky suggested that for any potential warmongers in Kiev, the Minsk agreements have effectively become a "noose around their necks," only tightening as time goes on to ensure that the conflict in eastern Ukraine cannot continue.

The journalist noted that the recent "abundance of conflicting versions attempting to give a consistent description on Russian policy in Ukraine can be explained, in part, by the fact that the strategic position formulated and pursued by Moscow does not imply quick results, being a very long-term project, designed with implications in mind which are far broader than the settlement around the two unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics."

Moreover, the Russian strategy recognizes, according to Babitsky, that "some of its interim and even core objectives may not be achieved. This explains why Russia's actions surrounding Donbass may seem ad-hoc, hectic, and even devoid of logic."

However, according to the journalist, the reality is that the Minsk II agreement, along with "the whole complex of measures aimed at ensuring its implementation, as well as the pressures on Kiev" from Donetsk, Lugansk and Russia in coordination with the countries of the EU are all part of Moscow's global strategy aimed at containing and limiting Ukraine's ability to wage war against its breakaway republics.

"It is necessary to understand that Russia is not just trying to strengthen the defense of the breakaway republics…it is also working to influence its western neighbor in such a way as to protect both itself and to push the situation in Kiev's domestic politics away from the sort which threw Ukraine into civil war in the first place," the journalist noted.

'Peace Trap'

According to Babitsky, the Minsk peace plan has effectively turned into a 'peace trap' for any potential warmongers in Kiev, "even if Ukrainian politicians may be trying to interpret its provisions in their own favor."

Thus, even as Kiev attempts to use the articles of Minsk II to try to gain some military or political advantage, as with the discussions on taking control of the border or ensuring that elections in the Donbass are held under Ukrainian law, the reality, Babitsky notes, is that the plan "spells out very precisely the sequence of actions which Kiev and the breakaway republics must take, and neither side is allowed to change it –or to pick and choose only what it likes."

This, according to the journalist, means that "Russia has managed to achieve the unthinkable, tying Poroshenko's hands, factually with the help of the European countries, and forcing him to stop Kiev's military campaign and to begin a withdrawal of weapons."

Babitsky recalled that "over the course of many months, the Ukrainian president not only attempted to avoid the fulfilment of this crucial point among the Minsk accords; on the contrary, he tried to whip the situation into a full-scale war, which was expected to begin in the fall."

"But it was in the fall, following the meeting of the Normandy Quartet in Paris that it all came to an end," the journalist continued. "The European leaders have finally been convinced that the Ukrainian army, not the Donbass militia, were the ones responsible for the constant shelling of settlements in the Donbass. What it was exactly that Merkel and Hollande said to Poroshenko remains unknown, but it is obvious that whatever it was, Poroshekno found it compelling. The shelling stopped just a day or two later, and now it has come down to Kiev removing heavy equipment from the line of contact."

According to the journalist, "stopping the war is a very important aim, but it is a tactical one. Stratagems have already been laid for the following stages of Minsk II's implementation – for example, the law on elections in the Donbass, and the recognition of the region's special status, in coordination with representatives of the breakaway republics. And here what is important is not so much the concord, but the legitimation of the authorities of the DPR and LPR as the representatives of their territories. By agreeing to negotiate with them, Kiev recognizes the republics as sides in the conflict, with whom it is necessary to create a formula for peace. This is a giant step in the path toward Ukraine's federalization."

Advising against any premature celebrations, the journalist emphasized that "the whole process will be far from ideal. Poroshenko will be desperate to find a way out of the 'peace trap' he has found himself in. However, this will only multiply his grief, since the reputation of a person violating agreements which have already been made is not the best political baggage to have in relation to the leaders of Europe."

As a result, the journalist suggests that "Moscow and the rebels are, in any case, the winners, whether Poroshenko derails the peace talks, or hesitantly executes the agreement."

Commenting on the political implications of the Minsk II agreement for Ukraine's ruling elite, including the president, Babitsky notes that the present agreement has effectively painted Poroshenko into a corner.

"Any steps to meet the representatives of the DPR and the LPR halfway on Poroshenko's part will be treated by radicals as something akin to abetting terrorism. This, incidentally, is a real article in the country's criminal code. Following the collapse of the governing coalition, he will not be able to obtain the necessary number of votes to grant special status to the breakaway territories. Accordingly, the president does not have any space for maneuver. He can't move forward, and is not allowed to move back."

With Minsk II working "as a noose slowly being tightened around the neck of the current regime in Kiev," the journalist believes that ultimately, "federalization will inevitably overcome Ukraine; the only alternative is complete chaos and the country's disintegration. But there is now a small chance that via its strategy, Moscow will be able to help its neighbor to avoid this sad fate."

An independent journalist with 25 years at Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe under his belt, Babitsky was fired from his post as a military correspondent earlier this year after filming a report in the Donbass where he discovered the bodies of four civilians killed by the Ukrainian army. Before his work in eastern Ukraine, Babitsky worked as a correspondent in the Northern Caucasus, strongly criticizing Russian authorities during the war in Chechnya. As a result, his views can be said to be anything but partisan.

JohninMK wrote:Doesn't sound good, if it made TASS it must be worse than normal.

[i]MOSCOW, October 24. /TASS/. Ukrainian military opened fire from mortars and small arms on the village of Spartak near the town of Yasinovataya in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) at 15.00 local time, the Donetsk news agency said on Saturday citing local residents.

Militarov wrote:

Gorlovka car wash

Cowboy's daughter wrote:
Anybody have any idea why? read or heard any chatter?

MSF Forced to End Activities in Donetsk, Leaving Thousands Without Health Care

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/msf-forced-end-activities-donetsk-leaving-thousands-without-health-care

Militarov wrote:

Cowboy's daughter wrote:
Anybody have any idea why? read or heard any chatter?

MSF Forced to End Activities in Donetsk, Leaving Thousands Without Health Care

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/msf-forced-end-activities-donetsk-leaving-thousands-without-health-care

Yeah i read somewhere that they were dispatched from DNR coz of espionage and some "physical exercise activity" (not sure what that was all about).

Militarov wrote:

Ukrainian Ambassador in Serbia sent protest note to Boško Obradović, leader of Serbian non parlamentar party "Dveri" (highly pro Russian).

Sort of translation:

Respected Mr Obradović (or Dear  Sir, whatever you prefer)

"Ukrainian Ambassy in Belgrade got information that your representatives visited occupied Crimea (Ukraine) and we express high concern regarding this. As it is posted on all Ukrainian Gov. websites and law Crimea is occupied part of Ukraine and newly formed gov. on Crimea should not be recognised. As we already explained all kinds of visits and talks to/with self proclaimed gov in Crimea is considered as act aganist integrity, security and territorial sovereignty of Ukraine. In this regard we are informing you that breaking of Ukrainian law in such manner will lead to implementing of certain measures and institutionaly proceedings. Ukrainian Ambassy is calling you to keep in line with Serbian constitution and furthermore Ukrainian people refusal to recognise Kosovo as independent country to preserve peace in region.  Ukrainians never participated in war aganist Serbia and it would be justice if you would value that and act towards Ukraine as Ukrainians act towards you as friendly and to us very close nation."

SturmGuard wrote:The fractured election results, election fraud+low turnout, poor public support, regional/oligarchic candidates victories etc. all suggest that people have lost faith in institutions and democracy, the very fabric of civil society or whats left of it has unraveled. And the worst is yet to come, economic hardships have only just begun, the combined meltdown of manufacturing+export and government+paramilitary decisions to severe all ties with Russia (Crimea embargo, airlines ban etc.) will only add to misery. At one point they might even realise that their glorious revolution has surpassed by far the disaster that the Orange one was. And watch in disbelief how EU accepts hundreds of thousands of foreigners while no Ukrops.

Happy times ahead, indeed. I just hope that Russian Federation has the will and especially the means to help and assist the people of DNR and LNR, while they rebuild and restore their homes and regions, normalise their lives. So-called "ATO" is hopefully a thing of the past.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:I thought the war is over...?