flamming_python wrote: Mustafa wrote:Assad used poison gas on his own people as well as barrel bombs.
Barrel bombs are nothing; the US and Russia both use vacuum bombs which are far more destructive. But they use them against enemy targets, not just against civilians in order to terrorize them, and I'm sure that the SAA too employs barrel bombs against enemy targets not just random civilians.
The turkmens are safe from him because our protection.
That's fair enough, but then why are the Turkmen at the nexus of a massive supply operation to the 'FSA' (Islamists), and are fighting so vehemently against Assad themselves? Assad hasn't done anything to them, correct me if I'm wrong. Al Nusra is right next to where you say the Turkmen are; they get their supplies from Turkey. I've heard there are Jihadists in precisely that area too. Why are the Turkmen tolerating them? Why is Turkey tolerating them?
Unless of course, they are all really on the same side.
The Syrian Kurds also probably have no love lost for Assad. So what did they do? They sort of declared their own area, armed their own militias and took control - but they didn't, and aren't fighting the SAA, and they are certainly not helping any Islamist groups.
My view is that the Turkmen issue is just used as an excuse by the Turks, as cover for a massive operation to help the largely Islamist insurgency.
If the Turkmen want protection by Turkey I think that's a fair demand, considering the war, but at the moment the situation doesn't look that way to me, it looks like something else is going on.
It's not just Turkey that does this; but Jordan, Israel, etc... too. Look at the map. All the 'strongholds' of FSA/Islamist resistance are right at the Turkish, Israeli, Jordanian borders. This is where they are the most strongest and the most dug in. Are there Turkmen next to Israel and Jordan too?
Syrian aviation can't even bomb these regions; when they tried Israel shot a Syrian plane down (actually I believe it was a Su-24 too), while Syrian planes haven't even dared to approach Turkish airspace as they knew that they will be ambushed and shot down like the Russian Su-24M was.
When Syrian artillery tried to take on the rebels near the Israeli border; Israeli firepower responded and destroyed them (using a pretext of some shells landing on the Israeli-held side of the Golan Heights). The same likely happens on Syria's border with Turkey; I believe I heard about some Syrian vehicles or planes destroyed at the Turkish border a couple of years ago. Since then they haven't gone near it, Syria is no match for the Turkish Army.
So now Russia is going to wipe these dens out. Turkey thought that it could respond to Russian aviation the same way Israel responded to Syrian aviation.
Now Russia has brought in a missile cruiser equipped with a S-300F system, a ground-based S-400 system, and Su-30 fighter escorts. This time, any Turkish attempt to deny Russia will result in a quite catastrophic clash. And Russia will certainly come again. So make your decision.
Let me ask you something, would you allow that a tyrant who used poison gas on his own people is in charge over some of your people? The russians intervened in crimea for far less than that.
Of course not, but are you sure that's what's happening here?
Putin knows this and evryone knows Putin will drop Assad sooner or later. We are in the endgame here. Evry site want to achieve the best outcome for itself. I know that russia must keep that Assad thing running but in the end will drop him.
Assad could be dropped or he could not, it's not for Russia to decide, all Russia can do is advise Syria albeit it of course has a great deal of influence.
My view is that after the war Assad himself might choose to step down, this will satisfy all sides and allow everyone to save face; while still keeping the Syrian state apparatus and government elite intact.
Just explain me how you will hold syria alive when evry single government around it break off diplomatic relations, keep supporting anti assad groups?
Well that's their problem, I hope they will reconsider when the Islamist groups that they are providing cover for are destroyed by Russian aviation. They will have no-one else to help, and will hopefully turn to more pragmatic policies and establish peace with Syria.
Israel has already stated that it won't shoot any Russian planes down, in the wake of the incident between Russia and Turkey, even if they do violate its airspace, and that it doesn't view Russia as an enemy, but as a major player in the region.
So with this message, Israel is stating that it's not going to cover for the Syrian rebel groups near its borders when the Russians come to bomb them. It's washing its hands of them.
Putin met with the Jordanian King just a few days ago. They have good relations, and always have very frank talks. I doubt that the Jordanians will do anything against Russian aviation either.
So that just leaves Turkey. If the Turkmen are the issue; then I'm sure an agreement can be reached. Russia has brokered ceasefires before, and if Turkey wants to protect them directly then I think that would be acceptable. But if deposing Assad is the issue, then no, Turkey's operations will have to be closed down.
I´m full supporting crushing ISIS, PKK, Al Nusra and all those monsters. But Assad is a red line. There is no scenario where Assad can be accepted from Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, USA, Israel. Its plain and simple impossible.
Assad is accepted or not accepted by his own people. If he's accepted, there's little that anyone from the outside can do about it, nor should do about it. If you want, you can cut off diplomatic relations with Syria - that's your right. But supporting rebel groups won't accomplish anything and will just prolong a needless war and strengthen violent Islamism in the region.
But like I said, probably as a face-saving measure for those who seeked to depose him, he will have the wisdom to step down by himself.