The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

JohninMK wrote:Both sides know that whereas a breakthrough by the UA will not get far because of the defence in depth that DNR has (with Russian backup), a breakthrough by the DNR forces would be catastrophic to Kiev once it spread out. If the Russians went all in then it would just be a question of where they decided to stop and this is the problem. Stop at the oblest borders and there would probably not be that much of a problem in the West. But go any further and the spectre of the 'horde from the east' will be resurrected, especially by the US, leading to more isolation and a huge increase in 'defensive' military spend.

From administrative perspective both of these "republics" need to control their full regional geographies to be viable, currently they're both at 40% or so. The "West" wants it all but also recognizes that some parts of Ukraine are simply Russian. The red line might be a bit further than those regions and possibly between Kharkov and Poltava. If things do heat up again Russian leaders should be ready to decide whether a region like Kharkov (city and region) can be allowed to become their dedicated enemy's bastion, with all its associated industries and strategic location.

Khepesh wrote:All of the attacks in the last days made by ukrops, for instance around Gorlovka and at Kominternovo, are being reported by ukrops media as attacks by VSN. The usual Orwellian/Goebbels nonsense of course. Their "proof" that VSN are attacking is to use still photos of the battalion training exercises taking place at Torez.

On site TSN ATO page various reports can be seen with all this nonsense  http://tsn.ua/ato

In other news, Yarosh declared he will replace Poroshenko as next President of Ukraine http://politrada.com/news/dmitriy-yarosh-zayavil-o-namerenii-idti-v-prezidenty/ No details of how this happens, only it is his intention.

And it is still a little difficult to fully understand Zakharchenko's motives for putting Pavel Gubarev into Yasinovataya. Anti corruption at face value, but still curious.

These are the battalion training exercises of the "rebels" in the video??

mack8 wrote:

TheArmenian wrote:

auslander wrote:

zg18 wrote:Lugansk military exercises

Looks to me like LNR/DPR armed forces have been rather well trained. I liked the Thoma skirts on the BMP's also, they do work. Just think, 20 months ago our compatriots were up there in small groups with a hodge podge of weapons donated by the local Militsya and DAI and counting every cartridge they had.

They got you fooled Auslander.
These are not BMPs, they are BTRs with side skirts added.
The Ukrops will think they are Armatas.

Are you sure they are BTR? I swear i can see tracks, look at the rear when they pass by.
Anyway, well if i would have seen that video without being told they are Lugansk troops, i would have thought they were from the russian military.

Guess what?
I got fooled too.
They are not BMPs and they are not BTRs.
They are MT-LBs. Here is a better quality video of the exercise:

JohninMK wrote:Realism, rather than rhetoric, for a change from a senior EU politician

Ukraine’s failure to implement its part of the Minsk peace accords could prod the EU to reconsider the sanctions it imposed on Russia in 2014, Danish Foreign Minister Kristian Jensen warned on Friday. "If Ukraine doesn't come through with the reforms linked to the Minsk peace process, it will be very difficult for Europe to continue united in support for sanctions against Russia," Kristian Jensen told Politiken. “Ukraine has a deadline. They need to push those reforms now, they can't wait,” he added.

Earlier it was reported that the Ukrainian parliament was considering a motion to scrap visa-free travel with Russia.

Mr. Jensen’s warning was not lost of the head of the State Duma’s International Affairs Committee, Alexei Pushkov. “The Danish Foreign Minister said what Berlin is afraid to say: if Kiev does not start implementing Minsk-2, the EU countries will lift their sections against Russia,” Pushkov wrote on his Twitter account on Saturday

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160206/1034337425/ukraine-reforms-sanctions.html#ixzz3zOmcOGIk

Europe has felt the full taste of the so-called "sanction".

EU has been fighting Russia and Syria for the White House, but what does it get ? Migration crisis, sanction backfire, and a burden named Maidan.

It is time for Europe to have a revolution, and to eradicate NATO once and for all.

Battalion Diesel

Cowboy's daughter wrote:

These are the battalion training exercises of the "rebels" in the video??

Yes, what ukrops media did was use un-watermarked images of the exercise and use them in articles about the recent attacks their forces have made to make it seem that they are the victims of ficticious VSN attacks. All media around the world do this type of trick because just as politicians they have contempt for the public and think we are all stupid cattle.

On DNR politics, there has been another change of a city mayor. This time Gorlovka and the new mayor is Stanislav Kim. This has caused a certain amount af bad feelings and rhetorical sniping at him, particulary from Bezler, because Kim had at the beginning of 2014 been at Maidan with the "peaceful protesters". But since then he has changed sides and is a wanted man in Kiev. IMO, those who start on one side and then change, are likely to have thought more carefully about the issues than many others and may be more commited. Two sayings can apply to this. Against him "Leopard does not change it's spots", and for him "There is no one more fervent than the newly converted". Had not there also been the affair with Gubarev I would not even have written about this, but two changes of front line city mayors in a week, and both contentious, is rather odd.

What Bezler says about this http://cassad.net/ukraina/ukrainskiy-krizis/24208-igor-bezlerbes-o-naznachenii-mera-gorlovki.html I like Bezler and also Zakharchenko, so it makes uncomfortable reading and I cannot agree with Bezler attacking Zakharchenko before the war has ended. What is uncomfortable is that while it can be said that Bezler is simply an "embittered has been" hurling mud from the sidelines as is said about Strelkov, some of what he says is not far removed from truth, but it's the wrong time.

Latest edition to the 404 Navy. Looks a bit low in the water to be able to withstand much bad weather. Interesting picture of the shore tho' with a few mega mansions.




4 February 2016 in Odessa commenced sea acceptance trials of the second of the two which were built for the Ukrainian Navy small armored artillery boat project 58155 ("Gyurza-M") - boats BC-02 (serial number 01024, the expected name "Ackerman").

Head of the Ukrainian-built boat of this type BC-01 (serial number 01023, the proposed title "Belgorod-Dnestrovski") started the factory sea trials in Odessa the day before 3 February. In this case, both boats are still not fully stocked equipment - in particular, the absence of optic-electronic system of surveillance and fire control "Owl".

JohninMK wrote:Latest edition to the 404 Navy. Looks a bit low in the water to be able to withstand much bad weather. Interesting picture of the shore tho' with a few mega mansions.




4 February 2016 in Odessa commenced sea acceptance trials of the second of the two which were built for the Ukrainian Navy small armored artillery boat project 58155 ("Gyurza-M") - boats BC-02 (serial number 01024, the expected name "Ackerman").

Head of the Ukrainian-built boat of this type BC-01 (serial number 01023, the proposed title "Belgorod-Dnestrovski") started the factory sea trials in Odessa the day before 3 February. In this case, both boats are still not fully stocked equipment - in particular, the absence of optic-electronic system of surveillance and fire control "Owl".

That thing is supposed to be river going artillery boat.

Please don't badmouth USS Salowald. It's good ship.


BTW they're mounted the Baryer tandem launcher, but is it wise to mount it so close to the ledge obstacles (cables)? I mean they'll be forced to "pop" launch it and then steer it down. If the target gets under level that's going to be one funny moment.

KoTeMoRe wrote:Please don't badmouth USS Salowald. It's good ship.


BTW they're mounted the Baryer tandem launcher, but is it wise to mount it so close to the ledge obstacles (cables)? I mean they'll be forced to "pop" launch it and then steer it down. If the target gets under level that's going to be one funny moment.

Royal Salo Navy - RSN Enterprise.



You mean like this just with more boom?

Militarov wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Please don't badmouth USS Salowald. It's good ship.


BTW they're mounted the Baryer tandem launcher, but is it wise to mount it so close to the ledge obstacles (cables)? I mean they'll be forced to "pop" launch it and then steer it down. If the target gets under level that's going to be one funny moment.

Royal Salo Navy - RSN Enterprise.



You mean like this just with more boom?

A bit like that yes... Anyway as it is laser guided, that's just a little hassle.

Additional images from Lugansk exercises







http://lug-info.com/news/one/glava-lnr-posetil-krupneishie-za-poslednee-vremya-planovye-ucheniya-narodnoi-militsii-10428

franco wrote:The French documentary "Masks of the Revolution" with English subs;

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=30e_1454796647  

Just watched it. The version on Youtube last week was zapped for copyright issues. It may not last here.

Its pretty hard hitting, you can see why Kiev really really didn't want it aired. Only a couple of 'the Russians are fighting' comments by the narrator.

This is not good PR. Especially as a main interviewee, the Economics Minister, resigned last week.

Just to remind you, this is the German film on the same subject released last March but without the same impact.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ6WDfAx1LM

franco wrote:The French documentary "Masks of the Revolution" with English subs;

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=30e_1454796647

Tks, mate. This is a good news for my Lunar New Year.

BTW on the event of Lunar New Year I wish Novorossia will enjoy great military/political/economic achievements in the Year of Monkey.

Honestly, a lot of commentary about what in reality constitutes the current world war reminds me of this quote allegedly from Luis Armstrong. Someone asked him what jazz was. He responded by saying "Man, if you gotta ask, you'll never know".

I don't know what happens when you miss your pills.

But this should be close.

https://citeam.org/russia-s-top-brass-linked-to-war-in-ukraine/

Putin's whim to pound Debaltseve was that he wasn't invited to the 70 years of the liberation Auschwitz Birkenau commemoration...Not because Debaltsevo was a salient, had about a quarter of the ATO troops deployed in it and could serve as shaping group in case of further attacks by U crying.

Nope, Just Putin Dingo stealing babies.

higurashihougi wrote:

franco wrote:The French documentary "Masks of the Revolution" with English subs;

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=30e_1454796647

Tks, mate. This is a good news for my Lunar New Year.

BTW on the event of Lunar New Year I wish Novorossia will enjoy great military/political/economic achievements in the Year of Monkey.

Happy New Year buddy!!!

higurashihougi wrote:

franco wrote:The French documentary "Masks of the Revolution" with English subs;

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=30e_1454796647

Tks, mate. This is a good news for my Lunar New Year.

BTW on the event of Lunar New Year I wish Novorossia will enjoy great military/political/economic achievements in the Year of Monkey.

Happy new year.  Being that its year of the monkey, we may see Ukraine chimp out again though.

sepheronx wrote:
Happy new year.  Being that its year of the monkey, we may see Ukraine chimp out again though.

Coffee all over my keyboard You owe me a new one!

IMF and therefore its master the US, seems to be continuing down the 'WTF are we doing in Ukraine?' path. This is out in the open in the press, not a nod and a wink in backrooms, so it is pretty serious stuff. Perhaps they have decided that they underestimated the risks in plundering and it is going to be just too difficult.

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The government of Ukraine could face revenue shortage in 2016, if it fails to address reductions in social security contributions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report on Monday. "Social Security Contributions (SSC) in Ukraine need urgent attention," the report stated. "If nothing is done, the budget is poised to lose 4.5 percent of GDP in revenues in 2016 due to a legally mandated SSC rate reduction adopted in March 2015."

The IMF argued that Ukraine has no fiscal space to omit tax revenues. "The possibility of financing social security entirely from the budget should only be considered in the context of a simultaneous and comprehensive review of the benefits that the system should deliver," the report stated.

The Fund said it endorses lowering SSC rates, but underscored that it should be done more moderately than currently suggested. In December, the Ukrainian parliament, Verkhovna Rada, adopted the state budget for 2016 with a deficit of 3.7 percent of GDP.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160208/1034424438/ukraine-could-lose-revenue.html#ixzz3zcLGrMmw

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The Ukrainian Space Agency potentially lost about 80 percent of its revenue in 2014 after contracts cancellation by Russia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report on Monday. "Additional losses [of state companies] could stem from… contract cancellation by Russian clients in the space and military industry (potentially 80 percent of revenue for companies managed by the State Space Agency or UAH [Ukrainian Hryvnia] 2 billion per year)," the report stated.

In June 2015, Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko halted all military sales to Russia. In February 2015, the Russian government announced the decision to cancel contracts for Ukraine's Zenit rockets used for satellite launches.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160209/1034425954/ukraine-space-sector-lost-revenue.html#ixzz3zcLXKpDM

WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — Many Ukrainian regulatory bodies force local businesses to pay bribes to continue operations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report on Monday. "Businesses report high levels of corruption, with regular "inspections" by various regulatory bodies requiring bribes to continue operations," the report stated.

The IMF argued that the existing Ukrainian corporate legal code is overcomplicated and internally contradictory. These complications provide "state authorities with significant latitude in determining when and how to apply it," the report explained. In addition, the IMF stressed "widely reported" concerns of taxpayer harassment.

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s Economic Development Minister Aivaras Abromavicius announced his plans to resign because he was unable to work effectively. In his resignation letter, the minister named corruption and political pressure as reasons for the decision. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that Abromavicius’s claims about corruption could indicate failure of reforms, introduced by the Ukrainian government.
Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160208/1034424614/ukrainian-business-continue-suffer-from-corruption.html#ixzz3zcLpC59h

Zakharchenko has said that Kiev now has enough forces massed in Donbass to launch an assault. He says that the numbers of troops are such that it is more than needed for defence, and is for offence. He says, and I paraphrase, that if they attack it will not stop, [there will be no more Minsk crap he means], and that they will be stopped by VSN and then a counter offensive to liberate all of Donbass occupied by ukrops will begin. http://dnr-news.com/dnr/29817-zaharchenko-kiev-skopil-v-donbasse-dostatochnye-dlya-nastupleniya-sily.html

Thanks for keeping us informed, Khepesh, please continue doing so, reputation is disabled in this forum but rest assured I eagerly await your most valuable reports. Thee seems to have been continuous sporadic bombardment and skirmishing since last week attack on Donetsk. Today seems things are heating up in Marinka.

Bryce Wilson ‏@Drjft 2 h
Large battle in Mariinka outskirts. Shelling, grenade launchers, small-arms, sniper rifles.

Looks like they have finally got a supply of engines

The Ukrainian state concern Ukroboronprom are satisfied with new agreements reached with Germany's Deutz AG to supply engines for new Ukrainian armored vehicles: a batch of DEUTZ BF 4M 1013 FC 190 hp engines will be shipped by German partners to Ukraine at the special price, the press service of the concern reported on Monday.

According to the report, after complicated and long negotiations between Ukroboronprom and Deutz AG the sides reached an agreement to supply a batch of engines at the price that allows Ukraine to save around UAH 25 million (EUR 862,000, the official NBU's exchange rate as of February 8 UAH 29.0277/EUR 1). Other details of the contract are not disclosed.

The press service said that these engines will be installed on BTR-3, BTR-4 and armored vehicles Dozor-B.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/323250.html