The Situation in the Ukraine. #23

PapaDragon wrote:

Khepesh wrote:Akatsiya at Kherson about to move to border with Crimea. Description says there was also tanks, but not seen in this video.
...............

So ukrops are going to invade Crimea?

Man I hope they try, there would not be enough popcorn on this planet for something like that!!!  

nice target practice for the RuAF if the HaHols would be stupid enough to attack Krim/Crimea

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:A big pleas for you guys.

I generally avoid the topic of Ukraine as my knowledge of Russian is limited - I simply don't have acacess to the best sources of information which are all in Russian. But as I now have a quest to further my knowledge of the Russian language, I would like to know which blogs and websites you use to gather info *except Cassad of course)

Try https://irrussianality.wordpress.com/ and its blogroll.

PapaDragon wrote:

 




So ukrops are going to invade Crimea?

Man I hope they try, there would not be enough popcorn on this planet for something like that!!!  

No, unfortunately.... The troop movements are either rotation or for the public to make it seem they are going to "liberate" Crimea at some stage. And of course there is the possibility that they are not for offensive purposes, but defensive in event of funny stuff happening. On the link it's mostly the equipment donated primarily by ukrops 51, 72 and 79 brigades when southern pocket fell, and there's a lot of equipment from Debaltsevo, several batteries of Grad and AD assets. The Giatsint, I think four of them, are courtesy, if I remember correctly, of Bezler, but I may be mistaken as I seem to remember at least one Giatsint being captured somewhere in vicinity of Saur-Mogila after either 30 or 51 ukrops brigades broke and ran. There was a period of time when he was announcing he had been capturing large amounts of valuable equipment, and was not being believed for various reasons, but turned out mostly true. The Giatsint were initially described as being Pion, so such silly errors give rise to skepticism of the reality of reports.

Interesting article on Segodniya about problems at Debaltsevo and future potential of VSN. The author, Konstantin Schemelinin, gives a brief account of what went wrong at Debaltsevo, and nothing new to this forum that it was mostly bad communications, insufficient military intelligence and training. The article is a little simplistic, clearly aimed at civilians with minimal knowledge, but seems to be sending a message, and that is why I link to it. He is saying that generally the population of Donbass have hoped for the liberation of Slavyansk and Mariupol, but anything more would be a dream. But, due to complete reorganisation of VSN into two proper army corps, it has the potential capability of taking large towns and cities, tho he clearly points out that as no large scale fighting has occured since Debaltsevo the effectiveness of VSN is untested. The critical point, the entire point of his article, is to say that people can now dream of more than liberating Slavyansk and Mariupol. http://www.segodnia.ru/content/173004

Members of "Azov" are blockading the offices of TV channel "Inter", calling it "Kremlin mouthpiece" etc. Head of security for "Inter" stated that the demonstrators were invited inside to talk, but "Azov" have demanded that the "Inter" bosses come outside to hear the demands in public. http://dnr-news.com/dnr/30318-boycy-azova-zablokirovali-ofis-intera.html

JohninMK wrote:Move Soviet era rules to be torn up.

Maidan paved the way for Western conglomerates to test their biochemical products on Ukr citizens ?

marqs

#Ukraine forces seized #Shyrokyne, 2 industrial area near #Yasynuvata fork, 3 high grounds near #Zaytseve & 4 high ground near #Dokuchaevsk

New Ukrop offensive?

Zakharchenko has denied that any ground around the front at Donetsk has been lost. At Avdeevka there was a problem which is now stabilised. At Shirokino it seems ukrops have decided to fully occupy the village. They had walked in last summer when it was evacuated, but now it is supposed to a "neutral zone" according to an agreement signed by Merkel. This could be a "tit for tat" over Zakharchenko temporarily declaring Kominternovo to be a part of DNR within the Minsk agreement borders for administrative purposes. I think the actions of DNR and Kiev cancel each other out here.

Someone might be interested in this one

Zakharchenko has been rather chatty today, and as well as denying the loss of any ground, particulary at Zaitsevo, and about Kiev wanting to change the names of cities in Donbass, he has also said that "Ukraine is waiting for dozens of Maidans across the country". http://dan-news.info/ukraine/ukrainu-zhdut-desyatki-majdanov-po-vsej-strane-schitaet-zaxarchenko.html
Zakharchenko says

"The people of Ukraine are only now beginning to understand what has happened, and if this continues then the country will face another "Maidan", and then another and then dozens of "Maidans" in each regional center"

There is a "mood music" emerging from Donbass, not all the same tune, but not fundamentally different either. It is part, as Zakharchenko says, an expectation that Kiev will fall due to internal contradictions and essentially stupidity, and that they will possibly go to war before this happens, irrespective of what Washington may or may not want. This has been said before, that in the end result it is not Obama sitting in Mariinsky, it is Poroshenko, and it is he who stands to loose everything, not Obama, or whoever replaces him, and Poroshenko will ultimately do want he thinks is in his interests. This is why it is so unpredictable about what will happen next and when. Where the mood music is on the same tune is that a serious provocation is expected, something barely short of major offensive, and it is the reaction to this that causes the tune to become discordant. Some want to soak up the blows and hope that ukrops destroy themselves, but not to counter attack, others to soak up the blows of course, but then to launch a full counter offensive. I think my position is well known, and I will point out that other than last year when, IMO, insufficient action was taken to at least neutralize ukrops artillery positions around Dzerzhinsk and the area between Staromikhailovka and Peski, I concur with Zakharchenko that when the ukrops blow comes, it will be defeated and met with full counteroffensive. Numerous comments begin to appear, like the one I quoted in earlier post from "Segodnya", that hint that any VSN counter offensive may not necessarily stop at Slavyansk and Mariupol. I know this is not popular here, but when the war restarts then all bets are off, and as Zakharchenko has often stated, it will not end with some "Minsk 3"

Khepesh wrote:Zakharchenko has been rather chatty today, and as well as denying the loss of any ground, particulary at Zaitsevo, and about Kiev wanting to change the names of cities in Donbass, he has also said that "Ukraine is waiting for dozens of Maidans across the country". http://dan-news.info/ukraine/ukrainu-zhdut-desyatki-majdanov-po-vsej-strane-schitaet-zaxarchenko.html
Zakharchenko says

"The people of Ukraine are only now beginning to understand what has happened, and if this continues then the country will face another "Maidan", and then another and then dozens of "Maidans" in each regional center"

There is a "mood music" emerging from Donbass, not all the same tune, but not fundamentally different either. It is part, as Zakharchenko says, an expectation that Kiev will fall due to internal contradictions and essentially stupidity, and that they will possibly go to war before this happens, irrespective of what Washington may or may not want. This has been said before, that in the end result it is not Obama sitting in Mariinsky, it is Poroshenko, and it is he who stands to loose everything, not Obama, or whoever replaces him, and Poroshenko will ultimately do want he thinks is in his interests. This is why it is so unpredictable about what will happen next and when. Where the mood music is on the same tune is that a serious provocation is expected, something barely short of major offensive, and it is the reaction to this that causes the tune to become discordant. Some want to soak up the blows and hope that ukrops destroy themselves, but not to counter attack, others to soak up the blows of course, but then to launch a full counter offensive. I think my position is well known, and I will point out that other than last year when, IMO, insufficient action was taken to at least neutralize ukrops artillery positions around Dzerzhinsk and the area between Staromikhailovka and Peski, I concur with Zakharchenko that when the ukrops blow comes, it will be defeated and met with full counteroffensive. Numerous comments begin to appear, like the one I quoted in earlier post from "Segodnya", that hint that any VSN counter offensive may not necessarily stop at Slavyansk and Mariupol. I know this is not popular here, but when the war restarts then all bets are off, and as Zakharchenko has often stated, it will not end with some "Minsk 3"

You are not the only one who thinks this way. While we long for the day that all of Donbas is taken and to see the ukropov hell on earth that has appeared fall in to the abyss, we also know the new sanctions will be massive and will bite hard. US will destroy half the world in their quest to destroy Russia.

My opinion is, that something is brewing and I think those cease fires with Minsk 2 and in Syria are not that stupid after all. I think in coming moths US will be very busy with China in South and East China Sea. We must have in mind, that neither Syria neither Ukraine didn't endanger any US interest, but Chinese new islands and military installations there are treat to cut main US maritime transport route from ME to Pacific region and US Pacific coast. This is far more vital for US and their confrontation with China will be far more serious. When US will be busy with full hands with China and China is strong enough to deal with US, than US will not be able to support neither nazis in Ukraine neither jihadist terrorists in Syria and this will be good time to crack them both.

Khepesh wrote:He is saying that generally the population of Donbass have hoped for the liberation of Slavyansk and Mariupol, but anything more would be a dream. But, due to complete reorganisation of VSN into two proper army corps, it has the potential capability of taking large towns and cities, tho he clearly points out that as no large scale fighting has occured since Debaltsevo the effectiveness of VSN is untested. The critical point, the entire point of his article, is to say that people can now dream of more than liberating Slavyansk and Mariupol.  http://www.segodnia.ru/content/173004

The Kremlin would not support anything that goes beyond the Donbass region.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

The Kremlin would not support anything that goes beyond the Donbass region.

The Kremlin supports and recognizes only a unified Ukraine, so the very existance of DNR and LNR is against what Kremlin says it wants, yet they exist...

This subject needs more expansive thought than is normally shown here and possibilities looked at and evaluated, even if they seem far fetched. It is not far fetched to imagine a scenario in which Kiev has launched it's offensive, and as a result of failure complete chaos has broken out in all Ukraine. Will Kremlin simply sit on ass and let chaos continue? will Kremlin allow a situation to develop that allows NATO to walk into Ukraine for the purposes of "peace keeping" and then for their forces to remain on territory that lets them potentially launch ground attack on large scale directly into Russia in a way that they cannot really do from Baltic states. Would, after all these centuries, Russia allow the territories known as Ukraine simply slip into the hands of an enemy that is an existential threat. I think not, and the expence of reconstructing Ukraine, which is often used as an excuse to do nothing, is nothing compared to having NATO tank divisions a days drive from Belgorod or a few days from Vorononezh, or in a position to take Rostov and cut off Kuban. In perfect world there will be more Maidans in Ukraine, but against the junta in Kiev, and whatever government emerges from what would be hoped to be more or less peacefull revolutions, will not be asking US/EU for help, but Russia, and then normality on the western borders can return. Doing nothing in Ukraine when the war comes is not an option, as if Ukraine is lost to Russia, then next will be Belarus, then Washington inspired interference in North Caucasus and Kuban.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:
The Kremlin would not support anything that goes beyond the Donbass region.

why not? The obvious solution is regime change in Kiev. A hostile puppet regime in Ukraine is not a desirable outcome. Partition of Ukraine is a lesser evil but wether just Donbass or large Novorussia, it still leaves a rump Ukraine hostile and a base for NATO. The best solution would be to overthrow the junta and keep a Ukraine united, with a pro-Russian government. The junta would go the way of South Vietnam.

The thing is that the Ukranian army is a shambles, war is contained in the Donbass along a relatively small front, if the front is broken, there is nothing behind. the Ukranian army would collapse and there is no other fallback position than the Dnieper, and Kiev is on the river.

The junta is only one big battle away from losing the war. They have scrapped the bottom of the manpower barrel and cannot replace losses in armor. More losses and they will be reduced to a infantry and artillery army that cannot maneuver. Enough losses and the morale of the infantry will collapse with mass surrenders. The Ukranian troops are close to the breaking point. Once the collapse starts, events happen very fast.

Don't dream about united Ukraine, because it is a past. Ukraine will be divided and this is the best and only solution to get peace there. Keeping Ukraine united together is madness. Western Polish part and eastern Russian part could no more live together, they are too different entities now. Only option is to create southeast independent Novorussia and the rest of Ukraine must be their own state. Let them live like they want.

Ispan wrote:The thing is that the Ukranian army is a shambles, war is contained in the Donbass along a relatively small front, if the front is broken, there is nothing behind. the Ukranian army would collapse and there is no other fallback position than the Dnieper, and Kiev is on the river.

The junta is only one big battle away from losing the war. They have scrapped the bottom of the manpower barrel and cannot replace losses in armor. More losses and they will be reduced to a infantry and artillery army that cannot maneuver. Enough losses and the morale of the infantry will collapse with mass surrenders. The Ukranian troops are close to the breaking point. Once the collapse starts, events happen very fast.

It's difficult to say how much reserves Ukraine still have. In tank and armor most probably they already take all they have from the stocks, what is still usable. Other question is manpower. Nazi battalions for sure have the will to fight, while regular soldiers mobilized by force most probably are not that willing. There is a good question, how many soldiers they could mobilize more and when those mobilizations will be broken. Ukraine is also bankrupt state and it doesn't have much money left to finance big war. Without money they could not pay a large number of soldiers and mercenaries, also they need money to buy fuel, food, ammunition, spare parts, medicaments, etc. If the big war start and when Novorussian army will break through the front, Ukrainian army will actually collapse. Behind is quite little left, almost all Ukrainian army is on the front and there is very little money to replace lost capabilities.
I think Ukrainian junta know this well and they will not go in full war. They will go in provocations and small fightings and artillery firing on Novorussian cities and villages to reorient attention of Ukrainians on the front and not on domestic issues with junta. Porosenko and co want to stay in power, not to lost a war and get killed.

medo wrote:Don't dream about united Ukraine, because it is a past. Ukraine will be divided and this is the best and only solution to get peace there. Keeping Ukraine united together is madness. Western Polish part and eastern Russian part could no more live together, they are too different entities now. Only option is to create southeast independent Novorussia and the rest of Ukraine must be their own state. Let them live like they want

I agree that Transcarpathia and Galicia can leave Ukraine as they are not historically anything to do with Russia, and a western border at those two areas is sufficiently far away from present Russian border. I say present because I see a future were all Donbass is fully part of Russia. It is Moscow and Kiev that talk about a united Ukraine, but I think one side says this with smile and crossed fingers behind back....

Most people who have been following the Ukrainian crisis and know Ukraine's general history realize that the only way to create peace there is to divide the country. For that to happen, there must be a very large pro-Russian sentiment in the Eastern regions. For that to happen, Moscow needs to increase support to Ukrainian politicans who are pro-federalization. This is a very difficult task today because the nationalists persecute anyone who is in favor of Russia(n), federalization, and anti-war oriented. Therefor, the very first thing that needs to happen: weaken or dissorganize the nationalists movement from the inside. Preferably through infiltration. However, another problem occurs. There's a very high probability that ultra nationalist movements are being sponsored, supported and coordinated by the SBU. The SBU itself is most likely swarmed by the CIA and other Western-friendly services. (lol I am starting to sound like a conspirologist).

Anyway, the most desirable scenario is weakening Western intelligence's grip on the SBU and therefor the ultra nationalists movements which would lead to less "bad Russian bear" propaganda in Ukrainian media and allow more moderate and sane politicians to become popular. This is also the most difficult task. The "dirtiest" scenario is a more direct approach in which pro-Russian movements across the Eastern regions rise up in coordination. This will also, most likely, lead to bloodshed.

My 2 cents basically.

Neutrality wrote:Blah, blah, blah.

My 2 cents basically.

Two cents was more than two trillion dollars too generous. Stop trolling.


You too, ExBeobachter. Stop trolling.

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

Neutrality wrote:Blah, blah, blah.

My 2 cents basically.

Two cents was more than two trillion dollars too generous. Stop trolling.


You too, ExBeobachter. Stop trolling.

Oh my, amazing contribution there. Also, pot calling the kettle black much? This isn't the first time you do this. You love to piss off members on this forum, don't you?

Where are the admins when you need them.

If we rewind back to last summer you will remember that we argued about what the strategy for dealing with Kiev is and reasons for ceasefire and Minsk2 accord.

Several of us here (and many more beyond) believed that the plan is to give opportunity to gang in Kiev to bury itself and Ukraine with it to the ground.  

Fast forward to today and we can see the results already: Ukraine is nosediving, economically, politically and socially. Population is worse off than ever before, money is running out, Nazis are on a rampage, junta are devouring each other and Kiev's sponsors are becoming increasingly frustrated with their project. Economy, migrant crisis, Mid East and other stuff also helped a bit on that front.

What happens next? We all know that Ukraine can only survive if it get money from abroad and only way to do that (in their opinion!!!) is to convince everyone that they are invaded by NAF/Russia. This would mean starting suicidal offensive.

Common wisdom says that you should not stop your enemy from harming itself and that is pretty much what is going on right now (just look at news coming from Kiev controlled Ukraine, you posted plenty of it yourselves). You also know the expression "don't go looking for trouble oor the trouble may find you". It also applies here too.

NAF should not start attack on the UAF lines. But when ukrops do get desperate enough and attack Novo, NAF should counterattack, no hold barred, full throttle, pedal to the metal and not stop until they they take as much ground as possible within reasonable risk margins for their troops.  

I fully believe that this is how things will play out. I also think that NAF will either intentionally not liberate entire Donbass and leave out some small parts or go beyond borders of two regions and take chunks of neighboring regions as well. No third option. Reason? Because that way they can continue to exert pressure on Kiev and prevent ukropstan part from declaring "independence" from Ukraine Yeltsin-style.

When will the ball start rolling? I do not know exactly but as we all can plainly see Kiev is nowhere near done with destroying itself. NAF should let them continue do their work for them, train, equip and be prepared to do their part when time comes.

Shellings are unfortunate and tragic reality but this is war and there will be losses. No other way around it. Line needs to be placed somewhere and this is how things are for now.

I disagree with Auslander's opinion that there will be some big sanctions and whatnot on Russia from the West as a result. Ukrops have been burning trough their diplomatic capital at astounding rate and are no longer darlings of "free world". And many in the West are pretty tired of this fiasco already. (see paragraph 3)

There will be plenty of yelling of course but, like in Syria, it will be little more than background noise from Russia's perspective. Times are changing fast.

There are serious timescale problems in this issue.

The longer Kiev leaves doing something, in an attempt to attract foreign money, the less money it has to keep going and the more unrest there will be. Note that energy bills are going up again 1st April.

For their potential donors of money there are also issues. As soon as the winter is over hordes of migrants will be released out of Turkey grabbing the attention of the EU politicians and their wallets, whilst at the same time they are struggling with the Brexit issue. In the US there is the presidential election coming down the track and the US is much more interested in the Near East, Syria etc. Even the IMF seems to be increasingly reluctant to throw good money after bad and there is still little sign of them paying the $1.6B or so due last October. As it could be one of the few times that the IMF has not gleefully loaded debt onto a country things must be really bad.

I think we will see more rats leaving that ship, both avoiding the issues and saving themselves.

Khepesh wrote:

medo wrote:Don't dream about united Ukraine, because it is a past. Ukraine will be divided and this is the best and only solution to get peace there. Keeping Ukraine united together is madness. Western Polish part and eastern Russian part could no more live together, they are too different entities now. Only option is to create southeast independent Novorussia and the rest of Ukraine must be their own state. Let them live like they want

I agree that Transcarpathia and Galicia can leave Ukraine as they are not historically anything to do with Russia, and a western border at those two areas is sufficiently far away from present Russian border. I say present because I see a future were all Donbass is fully part of Russia. It is Moscow and Kiev that talk about a united Ukraine, but I think one side says this with smile and crossed fingers behind back....  

I really do not see a "Western Polish" in Ukraine today. There is not significant Polish population in Ukraine today. If there is a divission of Ukraine it will be between:

- Ethnically Ukranian and Ethnically Russian parts.
- Culturally Ukranian and Culturally Russian parts.

One or other. There are not other groups of population with significant size and weight to lead successfully a divission of Ukraine.

A 'just in case' thought

The right-wing Polish political party National Movement has called for the construction of a wall on the border with Ukraine, which they claim will help stop an influx of illegal migrants, media reports said. Poland’s Support for Ukraine to Wane Under New Government - Former Diplomat. Poland's Ruch Narodowy (National Movement) party strongly believes that building a wall on the border with Ukraine could add significantly to containing a flow of illegal migrants, Polish media reported.

Sylwester Chruszcz, a representative of the party, was quoted by the Polish newspaper Wiadomosci as warning that this spring the Polish-Ukrainian border may well become a "channel for the transfer of illegal migrants to Poland." "This is why Poland should be prepared start building a wall [to protect itself] from the influx of refugees," he said. According to Chruszcz, if the Polish government says "no" to his party's proposal, it will be responsible for "a human tragedy because a wave of migrants will rush into Poland." He also said that the cost of the project will stand at about 225 million zlotys (60 million dollars).

Ukraine has been experiencing a humanitarian crisis since April 2014, when Kiev launched a military operation against independence supporters in the Donbass region. The United Nations said last year that the total number of Ukrainian refugees seeking any form of legal stay in neighboring countries had reached 770,000; most of them have sought asylum in Russia.

In September 2014, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced plans for the construction of a wall on his country's border with Russia. The 200-million-dollar project entails a barrier about 2,000 kilometers long, which would stretch along Ukraine's actual border with Russia. It would include anti-tank trenches measuring four meters wide and two meters deep, as well as 17-meter tall metal watchtowers, observation posts, alarms, retaliatory weaponry and special border check-points.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160226/1035376921/poland-ukraine-migrants.html#ixzz41GahUVc2

eehnie wrote:

Khepesh wrote:

medo wrote:Don't dream about united Ukraine, because it is a past. Ukraine will be divided and this is the best and only solution to get peace there. Keeping Ukraine united together is madness. Western Polish part and eastern Russian part could no more live together, they are too different entities now. Only option is to create southeast independent Novorussia and the rest of Ukraine must be their own state. Let them live like they want

I agree that Transcarpathia and Galicia can leave Ukraine as they are not historically anything to do with Russia, and a western border at those two areas is sufficiently far away from present Russian border. I say present because I see a future were all Donbass is fully part of Russia. It is Moscow and Kiev that talk about a united Ukraine, but I think one side says this with smile and crossed fingers behind back....  

I really do not see a "Western Polish" in Ukraine today. There is not significant Polish population in Ukraine today. If there is a divission of Ukraine it will be between:

- Ethnically Ukranian and Ethnically Russian parts.
- Culturally Ukranian and Culturally Russian parts.

One or other. There are not other groups of population with significant size and weight to lead successfully a divission of Ukraine.

There is no culturally Ukrainian and culturally Russian part of Ukraine. All parts of Ukraine are culturally the same as Russia and people moving from one country to the other don't need cultural acclimatization. The division is only political.