Ukraine Military: Situation and Needs

@Rybar's Analysis: What is the State of #Ukraine's Railway System after 9 Months of the #SMO

Throughout the Special Military Operation, Rybar's team has repeatedly stressed the importance of disabling Ukraine's railway system (railway bridges in the west, lists of traction substations, substations at the border with #Poland, lists of depots and recovery trains), and bridges across the #Dnipro River.

Firing at all the above facilities is critical to cutting the connection between the left and right bank. Since the #Dnipro River has been turned into a natural dividing barrier by the decision of Sergei Surovikin, Commander-in-Chief of the Self-Defence Forces, and Russian troops are building defences on the left bank, it is highly logical to cut off all communication between the banks and cut off the supply of the enemy grouping in #Donbass and along the border with #Russia.

What is the State of the Ukrainian Railway Network now?

Railway infrastructure facilities, despite intense fighting, are not subjected to not just massive but even sporadic strikes. This allows the enemy to ensure the uninterrupted transfer of armed forces and their supplies along the entire line of contact.

And isolated single strikes on troop loading/unloading points have no effect on this situation.

The volume of passenger traffic has hardly decreased. In fact, passenger traffic from the frontline towns continues: trains from #Kramatorsk are still running and passenger rail traffic to #Kherson and #Izyum has been re-established.

The volume of freight traffic has declined due to general problems with the Ukrainian economy and the shutdown of many industrial enterprises. Mostly fuel, coal and grain are transported.

The reduction in traffic has led to the emergence of a general reserve of locomotives (primarily electric locomotives), with which it is possible to reinforce the required transport direction if necessary.

What about Strikes on Energy Facilities?

Although there are no strikes on traction substations, this is more than compensated for by general strikes on the energy system. Entire lines are de-energized.

And shocks to the energy system also have a negative impact on road blocking systems, communications, maintenance, outfitting and repair facilities.

But railway workers have been able to adapt. At major stations with electrified railways, a reserve of diesel locomotives has been created. This helps minimize delays in case of breaks in the contact network. On direct current sections, diesel locomotive-electric locomotive units are used, which makes it possible to significantly reduce transport time.

What about the Condition of the Bridges?

Railway bridges over major rivers continue to function. Except for the rendering inoperable of the Antonovsky, Daryevsky and Kakhovskaya HPP bridges during retreat from #Kherson and undermining of bridges during retreat from #Kupyansk, #Izyum and #Lyman, none of the priority bridges have been struck since July.

So far the AFU has not rebuilt any bridges in #Cherkassy, near #Nikolaev at #Trikhaty village, in #Zatoka and #Voskresensk. So it is possible to put them out of action.

🩸The Picture does not look Very Good, does it?

The railways remain operational and continue to successfully manage transportation for both national economy and military purposes. There has been no systemic impact on the railway infrastructure for almost half a year now.

The only negative impacts experienced during transport are solely related to power strikes, but these are so far surmountable. With a shortage of high-precision missiles and no bomber aviation capability, the number of targets is extremely limited.


https://t.me/sitreports/1954

There's been several reports that the AFU has been welding the hatches of it's tanks to prevent the crews from abandoning the tanks.

At first it sounded unbeliavable to me and thought it was part of the info war.

But a second video has appeared and now I'm starting to think it's true


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/24453

Video in link


Alexander Sladkov @Sladkov_plus writes :

DO WE HAVE ENOUGH PEOPLE "UNDER ARMS" IN RUSSIA? IS ANOTHER MOBILISATION NEEDED? 

Vladimir Putin has determined: additional mobilisation of soldiers and officers to participate in the special military operation is not necessary. 

Reasonable. We are not going to flood the enemy with the bodies of our mobilised soldiers, we have other plans. Lack of manpower was one of several problems we had and still have to solve. 

We have solved the issue of strike drones, now we are solving the issue of a shortage of reconnaissance UAVs, and unmanned artillery fire correctors, which means we are doing everything to ensure that our guns fire at the enemy's guns, positions, and armoured vehicles quickly and accurately. 

We tackle the issue of improving the quality of combat training. We do not forget that the soldier is just training on the firing range, not in the trenches. We are putting in order the whole system of logistics of the combat units. 

We have formed a global structure for the troops' supply, and the people are in fact saving the army from the shortage of warm uniforms, thermal imagers, night vision devices, and copters.

We are building a system of uninterrupted rotation of combat units so that divisions, having retreated to the rear in full strength, will have time to rest, receive the recovered wounded, man their kit and rearm, and return to the war, replacing the withdrawn divisions. 

The combat role of aviation (army, attack, and bomber aviation) has increased considerably, pilots' experience has grown, and we are losing fewer crews and fewer downed aircraft. The air defence system is working perfectly, and the rocket pilots are doing an excellent job. 

We do not want to keep throwing our people into the enemy's embrasures, and all this work on fixing mistakes is going in all the right directions. It is not only the number of men that is decisive, but also the experience, the skill, and the new technology. That is why there is no need for a new mobilisation. We need to teach the recruits how to fight, and take care of them.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/24442

Any confirmation of this out there?

    As I understand it, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun to use new HIMARS missiles with an increased range of up to 140 km.

   And if this is the case, then we need to take measures to increase strikes against the enemy and defense above the established ones.

   The front line in this area was not close to Melitopol and it can be said with confidence that missiles with an increased range were delivered.


https://t.me/Slavyangrad/24440

a few stories at first was unsure if it was just PR or what. but now more videos released showing ukrainian tankers surrendering inside tanks that have hatches welded shut. seems these guys have seen the decimation and were needing some help to drive off to certain doom. the story goes they turn the turrets backwards to show not being a threat and drive into RF positions to surrender

https://www.bitchute.com/video/KOkqYMszQRnJ/

Is this is a reference to the delivery of at least small quantities of GLSDB rounds for the HIMARS launcher vehicle?

https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/11/glsdb-ammunition-for-ukrainian-himars-rocket-launchers/

“... A HIMARS rocket launcher, such as those supplied to Ukraine by the U.S., when equipped with GLDSB ammunition, can engage targets at distances of up to 150 km ...”

franco wrote:Earlier that day, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Oleksandr Litvinenko reported that the state authorities intend to call up another 160,000 people to the country's armed forces . He emphasized that this measure will make it possible to staff the Ukrainian Armed Forces to 85%.

FULL ARTICLE: https://iz-ru.translate.goog/1782226/2024-10-29/voennyi-ekspert-usomnilsia-v-vozmozhnosti-kieva-mobilizovat-eshche-160-tys-chelovek?main_click&_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

NOTE: Estimates of Ukrainian forces at their maximum was 750,000-1,000,000 so 85% would equal 637,500-850,000. Minus 160,000 would equal present strength at 477,500-690,000. But only the "shadow" knows for sure.

That means they lost almost a million. They have been drafting people for 2 years now directly from streets and they have only half of the total numbers from the start.

If you think deeply, knowing that new recruits aren't even trained and get killed or surrender more easily, that means they replace them even faster but still have only half of their troops.

A lot are also kept to "recruit" from the streets and guard the western borders against desertors or the belorussian borders against an attack on Kiev. Which means they should have 35-45% of the total forces from beggining at war.