The Situation in the Ukraine. #24

In one way I would really like to see, that 404 start military operation in Donbass. 404 already lost more than half of their equipment, which were actually their best, against Novorussian army, which was in that time far smaller than today and not as organized as today. After Debaltsevo, when Novorussian army capture a lot of Ukrainian equipment and ammunition and we see from the battles, that Novorussian artillery is far more deadly than Ukrainian one and is now far closer in the numbers than before. Same is true for armor units. I think 404 is not so much willing to actually start a new war. Months ago 404 was also firing on Novorussian villages and cities like now to provoke fights, but when Novorussian army bring artillery to the front and quickly destroy some 404 artillery batteries, 404 quickly stop firing and with help of OVSE take back their equipment from the front line according to cease fire agreement. Orcs are fearing Novorussian artillery as hell, which have great gunners and great reconnaissance units and fire directors. I think locals also help a lot with giving exact positions of orcs even before they start firing and I think there is really an important key in destruction of orcs artillery units.

If 404 start a war, they will quite quickly lost 90% of their army in Donbass front and with rebellions in Herson, Oddesa, Zaporozhye, etc, Novorussian army could actually start marching to Kiev to have Eurovision contest in Novorussia. Don't forget, Novorussia have very experienced units, which train a lot for actual battles, which they will have to fight in the future, while majority of 404 experienced soldiers are already dead or invalids and majority of today army is only sitting on the front and drinking. Of course there are nazi units and some Pretorian guard units, which train with NATO instructors, but they are far away from the front. Their job is to terrorize ordinary people in other regions.

Khepesh wrote:Article on Kassad about ukrops losses in equipment and men http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2749753.html



Tanks figures are only for equipment in service or re-activated. This is equipment destroyed beyond repair, which is why no mention of Giatsint-S for instance, where they had several captured, but none destroyed. The columns after the equipment type and holdings for 2013 and 2016 are, losses, percent of losses, crew number and total number of crew killed in all of that type of equipment, and at the top of each column the total of losses and % and at the end, 29690 for all crews. I think using the data of how many types of equipment lost and presuming that the entire crew was killed in all cases is not very "scientific". However, most ukrops would have been killed in the open and not in any vehicle, or thirty men could be killed when a truck is hit, but losses of trucks does not appear, and what would be the crew, just one or two, and nobody knows how many in the back.

It is very interesting information.

The data offered for 2013 is exactly the data that I have been collecting for the total Ukranian warfare before the war. Unfortunately there are not data for 2013 for Surface-Air systems, BMD family warfare, tanks different of the T-64, Surface-Surface different of the MRLS, MT-LB, BRDM-2, BTR-60 and something else. Between the data of this report the alone significant differente with my previous data is in the case of the BMP-1, where I have 1452. The data offered by this source for 2013 would include warfare in the reserve (not only combat ready warfare).

It means the data offered for 2016 can be right, and would include also the reserve, except maybe in the case of the T-72 and T-80 (?). In the case of the T-72 and the T-80, the numbers that I have for before the begin of the war would be 160 T-72 and 14 T-80. If the data provided for 2016 includes the reserve like in the rest of the cases, it would mean that 90 T-72 and 6 T-80 have been decommissioned for sale or to give parts to other tanks. In this case, the loses provided by this new source would include also the pieces decommissioned to give parts to other pieces of warfare, and not only loses in combat. Something that seems likely to me.

I would divide the difference between the data for 2016 and 2013 in this new source between:

- The "confirmed loses" until the data of loses offered by lostarmour.info.
- The "unconfirmed loses" until the difference between the data of this new source and the data offered by lostarmour.info.

I think both data can be compatible. Both sources can open a range between minimum and maximum loses. The work of lostarmour.info has a slow progress but seems fine to me (they are collecting also pictures of the not destroyed Ukranian warfare and with the time I think they will be close to give the real figures for loses).

I have a question in my mind. This new way to count the Ukranian loses would allow to stimate their loses of land warfare (including missile systems) in Crimea?

eehnie wrote:

I have a question in my mind. This new way to count the Ukranian loses would allow to stimate their loses of land warfare (including missile systems) in Crimea?

I presume it will include what they lost in Crimea, but it's a little difficult to know exactly what was returend to them, for instance we know all the tanks UA had in Crimea were returned because we saw photo and video evidence of this happening, but on other army equipment I don't know. We know they kept their warships, but I think all air assets remained, and junk anyway.

Soo I was reading Bloomberg...and Bershidsky had done this.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-05-11/ukraine-s-free-trade-deal-with-the-eu-was-just-a-start

Zakharchenko made curious remarks. He is saying that there are, within his mind, two Zakharchenko's, and there is a conflict between them. One Zakharchenko deals with the situation we have now, with Minsk and the rest of the nonsense, but the other Zakharchenko knows that it is not enough to liberate all DNR territory, and even if the borders of DNR are reached, there will not be peace as all Ukraine needs to be reformatted from a nationalist to a normal country. He is saying that the first Zakharchenko, the one of Minsk, usually wins the internal argument, but he realizes the war will not stop at the borders of Donbass and fights the urge to go further. This, with what he said last week about going to liberate Odessa if they take their fate into their own hands and can hang on until help arrives, and what Pushilin has said that a Novorossiya from Kharkov to Odessa could become a reality, seems to me to be a rather quick volte-face on previous generally anodyne statements endlessly repeating the mantra about Minsk. They would not suddenly be making these type of very, to me, good statements without authorisation. Yes, politicians say words for consumption by different factions and audiences, but what is really meant by this sudden move to swinging the sabre and charging on Kiev. To make Poroshenko realise the inevitability of defeat?, to make his generals realise this and launch a coup?. http://www.politnavigator.net/lider-dnr-zakharchenko-odnojj-doneckojj-oblasti-malo-nuzhna-vsya-ukraina.html

I very much doubt these beligerent words from Zakharchenko and Pushilin are for the benefit of those of us who want to hear them, but I think for the benefit of UA commanders. Back in 2014 it was hoped that a coup would happen, and even before Yanukovich fled there was some strange troop movements around Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye that have never been explained. Talk of coup by UA generals in summer 2014 was dissmissed by saying they where all simply corrupt incompetants, and that was true then, and with senior command still true, but it is the officers below them, those who have been in the fighting and know the realities, know a lot of blood will likely be spilt for the amusement of Washington, who may get the message that it is time to end this and march on Kiev. In fact, just a mutiny of major formations at the front will have Poroshenko and his gang shit themselves and run before mutinous forces even start to move towards Kiev. I was looking for some analogy with Kronstadt rebellion or Kornilov, but nothing seems clear like that, unfortunately. Yes, simply scenario based on idle thoughts, but how does it all end, who can say, who can see in crystal ball more clearly than anybody else.

How about this crazy idea?

Given the clear love and respect that exists between the UA and the RS etc units there is another option. That large chunks, maybe most, of the UA and DPR/LPR forces gang up and destroy said units in a pincer movement, before jointly marching West. Then, to avoid any possible claims of a Russian invasion, the DPR/LPR forces stop at their border, acting as a back-up in case they are needed, whilst the UA fan out West, whilst continuing to Kiev as the main objective. The rats would be on their planes before you could blink.

Highly unlikely I know, especially given the level of secrecy that would need to be maintained, but I thought it might make some of you out there smile.

I think this is quite interesting, that Zaharchenko and Pushilin talk between the lines of military operations outside Donetsk oblast borders. I'm sure they have far more informations and know situation far better than we do. It seems they know, that Porky & co will not fulfill Minsk 2 obligations in the given time and that Minsk 2 will not last long. They for sure know well the situation in Ukraine and Ukrainian army as well as situation in Novorussia and in Novorussian army. They know, that Ukrainian economy is falling in a black hole and that Novorussian economy is getting slowly on their feet and start growing. They know, that Ukrainian army reach it peak of their power and that their power will go only down as there is no money and no reserves left. They also know, that morale in Ukrainian army is not that good as in the front as behind in repairing and maintaining armament comparing to Novorussian army, which have quite high morale in the front and behind with repairing and maintaining armament, what could lead to the point, that Novorussian armament could be in better shape than Ukrainian armament. Novorussian army is training hard in defensive and offensive operations, while Ukrainian army mostly sit on the front. It is not seen, that Ukrainian army do any larger exercises, only court units with NATO instructors. Other question is the size of army. I don't think Ukrainian army will grow any more, it is their peak of the size. On the other hand Zaharchenko was talking about 100.000 soldiers around a year ago, for which in that time they didn't have enough armament to arm them, so they were limited to around 70.000 soldiers. I'm sure that in this year of time they got armament for them, be it repair damaged ones, produce their own like mortars or bring secretly from Russia. They know, that practically whole Ukrainian army is in Donbass without reserves behind and that sooner or later they will have to fight with them. I think they get ready for them and today Novorussian army looks far more disciplined regular state army than Ukrainian army.

Other question is, how well is Porky Offshorenko & co informed about real situation and what they are thinking. I think disasters of 404 army, specially in Debaltsevo show them well, that they could not defeat Novorussian army. They have a very hard dillema now, to start a new war in Donbass and lost whole army in shorter period of time or sit and wait and lost army in longer period of time, because there is no money to pay and maintain it. If they are well informed, they will keep status quo on the front to prolong their positions and steal as much as they can and bring that money to off shore companies and when time will be right simply flee from the country. If they start a war, their defeat to come to quick and they could lost everything including their heads. But if they actually live in surreal world and actually think they have the strongest army in the continent, than everything is possible and I think Zaharchenko and Novorussian army are waiting exactly this. They are waiting Offshorenko's stupid move.

shinobi ‏@shinobi22427722 3h3 hours ago

BREAKING #Lugansk RECRUITMENT OFFICE FOR LNR & #DNR army today closed sooner due to many recruits joining #naf army


Seem to have struck a nerve.

Take a careful look at what the NAF has in storage:

Ivan the Colorado wrote:Take a careful look at what the NAF has in storage:

Good God, he literally gave them with this video position of storage facility.

Don't worry, I'm sure OSCE has already called 404 and told them the sight is compromised and would 404 please move the junque.

auslander wrote:Don't worry, I'm sure OSCE has already called 404 and told them the sight is compromised and would 404 please move the junque.

Excellent stealth missile launchers filmed at end.

I would be cautious if NAF goes on the offensive in Donbas. The US can easily arm the coup army with tens of thousands of TOW missiles and even chemical weapons. The people of Donbas would suffer greatly if NAF goes on the offensive. The last thing Europe needs is Syria 2.0 happening in Ukraine. That would cost the lives of millions of people in Ukraine.  The consequence of that would be Ukrainian people would hate Russian people forever. Ukrainian is a different language from Russian. These two are not the same language. Putin missed his chance of helping Yanukovych put down the coup. Now the best alternative is a permanent ceasefire.

Russia trying to tighten Ukraine's access to IMF money

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Earlier the Russian finance minister said Moscow had given Kiev additional time to reassess realistically the situation around the repayment of $3-billion debt to Russia and start fair talks to settle the issue.

"At present, we, as a sovereign creditor, in preparation of the new program of the revised IMF program on providing Ukraine with loans, will defend the interests of inclusion in this program commitments of Ukraine to Russia… If this is not done, how can we support such a program of the fund?" Siluanov stated in an interview with Rossiya 24 television.

In February Russia has filed a lawsuit against Ukraine at London's High Court over the $3-billion sovereign debt following unsuccessful attempts to agree on a debt restructuring as Ukraine announced in December 2015 that it would not make the repayment on current conditions.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160517/1039732021/ukraine-russia-imf-debt.html#ixzz48vYUDRop

Potential trigger for war, for Kiev to attack, is if elections are held in Donbass without Kiev complying with Minsk, which they will not do. The elections in DNR and LNR have been put back twice now because Kiev will not comply. Zakharchenko has now said that the elections will be held this year, and that they cannot be held back past Autumn as the state needs to be on a proper legal footing before winter. This statement, and his and Pushilin's recent statements, point to war in Autumn. By postponing these elections several times already shows good willing by DNR and LNR, and puts the pressure on Kiev to comply with Minsk to allow these elections to take place properly and peacefully. They will not, so when the elections are held, probably sometime in September, Kiev either attacks or has to accept the elections, which it will not do as that is an admission that DNR and LNR are not part of Ukraine. http://dnr-news.com/dnr/32653-glava-dnr-v-respublike-provedut-vybory-esli-kiev-ne-vypolnit-minsk-2.html

If the reality is that Kiev really does want war, and I am sure it does, then they will want to have the initiative on when. If they do nothing until elections are held, then during or after elections Poroshenko will come under pressure to do something, either war or stop ATO, and either way he suffers a certain loss of control in timing as holding elections will force his hand. Between now and end September he still has the initiative without pressure to act.

ATO has been issuing press cards to foreign journalists specificaly for them to operate in the area of Avdeevka between 16 to 22 May. This article has the info on BBC "journalists" and copy of one of the cards issued to a technician. And tho not in the article, there is also copy of the card of a BBC producer, which I repost from Mariupol group http://rusvesna.su/news/1463508901


Of course issuing these cards is normal, but for a specific area and for a specific very short time period in the hottest area of the front is a little odd. Maybe this coincides with the sudden increase in ukrops drone activity over that part of Donetsk and all the rumors flying, but there are always rumors....
Also Russian journalists are at Yasinovataya and yesterday a film crew from NTV was fired at and VSN soldier with them was wounded.

Militarov wrote:

You never fail to bring a smile to my face.

This would be a pretty depressing article to read if you were west of the ATO. But fortunately you probably can't.

Just how far and fast Ukraine's economy is going down the tubes. Pity more people don't know this, its long but worth the read.

If the UK votes Brexit, will the next US encouraged Colour Revolution be in London?

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160518/1039806860/ukraine-economy-raw-materials-appendage.html

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20160518/1039827715/veneto-italy-russia-sanctions.html

Another blow for Orcs. Veneto regional Council in Italy voted for recognition of Crimean referendum and to recognize Crimea as part of Russia as well as to end sanctions against Russia.

I regret not having the time to report, but this graphic shows how the situation worsens everyday

I wonder what sort of arms the US has covertly sent to the Poroshenko regime. Maybe 50,000 TOWs and or Javelins?

And who would pa for them?

50.000 TOWs would be like one 5th of all serviceable TOWs in the world lol