Back to the topic of the war.
We don't know what's happening in the front lines, but we can take an educated guess.
To western MSM the total defeat of the Ukrainian forces in the summer of 2014 didn't exist. Nobody dares say what's the actual death toll. For the outside world there's no war, just a truce with some sporadic shooting.
Except that we know better, we know there has been a position war with occasional breakthrough attempts throughout 2015 and things did worsen during 2016. Basuring briefings are useful as a thermometer of the intensity of the fighting, but I say the numbers of shellings are not credible, too low, and too precise.
In today's briefing there was this interesting bit of data. It has been reported by Sputnik, somebody called my attention to it.
Also, our investigation established the arrival of the merchant vessel "Amal Neptune" in the port of Mariupol with military freight consisting of artillery and mortar shells of various caliber. The total weight of the "humanitarian aid" is approximately 1,500 tons.
I feel vindicated because this is consistent with I have been calculating. We have consistent and reliable data coming from Ukrainian sources that report tens of wounded (and that means also dead) daily over months. This matches a picture , adjusted to scale, a fairly typical of a static front without major battles, from either of the world wars. It's not all out war, but neither there is a "cease fire"
So the following conclusions:
1) The ukrops are starting to run low on ammunition.
If that weren't the case, it would not be worth the trouble picking up a delivery of a paltry 150 tons of Kalashnikov cartridges sent by Lithuania. Ot this ship with its load of mortar and artillery rounds. And there must have been some other shipments that have gone unreported.
I already suspected it from other clues and the examination of the data on prewar stockpiles, wich were well researched and published in many sources, but now these are not just guesses, now I am certain.
2) Doing a quick calculation, these 1.500 tons are enough ammo for more or less one month of bombardment at the present rate. As a comparison, in the fire at the ammo dump at Svatovo blew up over 3.500 tons.
Even if you are skeptical, it's enough to wonder about these questions:
- If there is not a war going on, whatever happened to all those scores of wounded that arrive each day to hospitals in the cities of Ukraine, well to the rear? (and the associated dead) It cannot be that the Novorussians are such good fighters that they have shot them all just with the Kalashnikovs
- If all the hundreds of cannon and morterars in the frontlines fire barely a few hundred shells daily... then, why the ukrops would want to have deliveries of more shells, if they inherited from the Soviet Union mountains of ammunition for an army of a million men in size? They litherally had a million tons of artillery and mortar rounds. Even if there's only a fraction of it remaining after 20 years, in the case that a truce was holding , they would still have enough ammo for a decade at the rate of firing as reported by oficcial briefings from OSCE and DNR, taken at face value.
They would certainly not need to receive a mere thousand tons from abroad... unless they have been shelling everyday for te past 2 and a half years.
I am confident that there's a real war going on, even if it's low intensity positional warfare, with daily exchanges of thousands of shells and mortar bombs a day, not the few dozens or couple hundreds that are reported, and uncountable shooting with rifles, machineguns and other weapons.
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franco
