The Situation in the Ukraine. #26

miketheterrible wrote:So I agree with both KVS and Flaming Python, in that Ukraine is lost.

Good thing people like you weren't in charge during WW2.

mikey, aka miketheterrible, you obviously know precisely zero about Russia, neither the economy nor the culture nor Mother's armed forces. Here's a little link for you from the Russia thread. Perhaps you can read a bit, just click on the cover page and you'll get a preview of the books. The diction and culture is chapter and verse our culture in Sevastopol.

https://www.russiadefence.net/t4182-never-the-last-one-a-novel-of-spetznaz#183260

kvs wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:You two are forgetting something.  The fact that Russia has an economy to run is that fact.  If Russia just simply stops selling gas to EU or puts pressure on them, then it puts pressure on Russia's own citizens and businesses which could lead to an actual revolt or at least displeasure.  Russia is going the third route that we didn't know existed - Winning the hearts and minds.  In order to do so, they need to have jobs for their own people, money flowing, trade going and getting the idiot masses who cannot think for themselves beyond what TV and advertisements tells them, to be happy.  In order for them to be happy is through consumption.  And so in this case, they still demand for the european and other crap goods because they are good goy's and do whatever the media jew tells them.  So Russia is playing at that game.  While at the same time, obtaining foreign businesses and investments because as we all know (dating back to world war 2) even the Nazi's had foreign companies like Coke and IBM operate in the country regardless of sanctions.  Russia is a prime market right now and many businesses are going to grab it.  With Russia not making it obvious of their involvement in Ukraine, many business people really don't give two hecks about the sanctions and are investing in Russia.  Doing so, keeps the people at home happy.  All the while, they are making their plans and making the needed adjustments.  They wont cut gas supplies to Europe anytime soon, not at least till the Nord 2 Stream is ready, Turk Stream, Power of Siberia and the LNG plants are ready.  Then Russia can and will turn around and start making demands.

As well, they are waiting to see the leaderships upcoming from France, Germany and Italy.  Things may change.  Already EU is collapsing on its own.

Russia gets $28 billion per year from its gas sales to the EU.   Without Russia's gas the EU will collapse.   And the EU haters try to blackmail
Russia to send its gas via Banderastan to keep paying $3 billion per year in transit fees ($28-$3=$25 billion) and be subject to additional
blackmail by the Kiev regime.   Russia will not have a revolution by selling its gas elsewhere.  I explicitly stated about pipelines to alternative
buyers.   China and other south-east Asian consumers can also pay for Russian gas.   So Russia could actually come out ahead by shifting
sales from the EU to the east.

After all the independent information portals are censored in the EU there will not be any winning of hearts and minds.   EU residents will be
foaming at the mouth, baying for war against Russia.   Russia does not need to support these criminal clowns.

28 billion? What?

The exact extent of Russian hydrocarbon exports to the Eu is close to 100 billion Euros. Roughly Half that is Gas. Last year trade balance was still HEAVILY skewered towards Russia (61 billion Euros) for a total of 202 billion in total trade. This however has gone down from the glory years of 2012/13 (over 300 billions).

Russia used to be 1/6th of EU imports and roughy 8% of its exports, 10% of EU's trade. Yes, Russia, the gas station with nukes. Proportionally as valuable as the US (300+ billion vs 600+ billion for 145 million people and 310 million people). Just fucking think about it. European morons don't understand this. I hope they do and fast. Because there's only so much Russia can take on the long run.

Also while people complain about how Russia is hurting itself, bollocks, the damage done, is actually a two way street.

Russian exports and Russian imports are curtailed in exact same fashion, there's a funny proportionality of both reductions.

Here: page 3

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113440.pdf

Even today Russia is still 15% of EU's trade (PPP/Re-exports) and has the potential to replace a lot of Central Europe at a lower price. The issue so far is politics, Russian size and the antagonism that still prevails from certain NATO members.

auslander wrote:mikey, aka miketheterrible, you obviously know precisely zero about Russia, neither the economy nor the culture nor Mother's armed forces. Here's a little link for you from the Russia thread. Perhaps you can read a bit, just click on the cover page and you'll get a preview of the books. The diction and culture is chapter and verse our culture in Sevastopol.

https://www.russiadefence.net/t4182-never-the-last-one-a-novel-of-spetznaz#183260

I'm quite versed in economics thank you. But I will check out your links/books.  And while Russia's dependence on oil/gas is nowhere what west states or what is proclaimed and used to be, it still brings in a lot of money that isn't so easily replaceable at time being (see Kotemores reply). I'm not entirely versed on the social side of things, but I do happen to understand that there are a lot of Anti-Russian Russians whom side with the liberals. These people can be quite dangerous and are poster children to the group I mentioned.

It isn't the people of Sevastopol but from Moscow, St.Petersburg and alike.

KiloGolf wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:So I agree with both KVS and Flaming Python, in that Ukraine is lost.

Good thing people like you weren't in charge during WW2.

nah, I would have been an asset cause I would know that human rights tribunals that weren't exactly a thing, is meaningless in times of a major war and I wouldn't have had an issue ordering the bombardment of Kiev or Lviv to remove such scum. But these days? Its just you know - lovey dovey from the world in a horrifically skewed manner in the pretext that east can do all wrong but not west. In other words, Russia couldn't get away with doing that today without 24/7 bombardment in media which could do real damage to international trade and security (would give justification to NATO and make Russia's current partners uneasy). I noticed that over the years Russia sunk tens of billions (or more) dollars equivalent into Ukraine and what did it get out of it? Nothing but a stab in the back and a huge headache. Russia needs to strengthen itself more economically before going in. The liberal economic structure that is confirmed to continue for the future (With Putin siding with Kudrin on economic development) is indication Russia isn't going in and that they already sold out their Novorussian brothers/sisters so they could have "foreign investments" that Kudrin and his cronies demand and state is Russia's only future

So I'm a realist. I see what is happening. Until Putin gets rid of people like Kudrin and not actually boost him and support him, the rest of the talk of supporting Donbass and alike can be thrown out the window. At this point, Russian authorities are more or less good goys and part of globalists. Kudrin may have no power but his policies are being accepted and pushed. If you want Russia to go the path of supporting Novorussia and ready for conflict against Ukraine and west, it needs to gear its economy towards autarky and growth in domestic consumption. Outside of that, it is a nation heavily relying on foreigners and their consumption for large amounts of cash injections.

miketheterrible wrote:nah, I would have been an asset cause I would know that human rights tribunals that weren't exactly a thing, is meaningless in times of a major war and I wouldn't have had an issue ordering the bombardment of Kiev or Lviv to remove such scum. But these days? Its just you know - lovey dovey from the world in a horrifically skewed manner in the pretext that east can do all wrong but not west. In other words, Russia couldn't get away with doing that today without 24/7 bombardment in media which could do real damage to international trade and security (would give justification to NATO and make Russia's current partners uneasy). I noticed that over the years Russia sunk tens of billions (or more) dollars equivalent into Ukraine and what did it get out of it? Nothing but a stab in the back and a huge headache. Russia needs to strengthen itself more economically before going in. The liberal economic structure that is confirmed to continue for the future (With Putin siding with Kudrin on economic development) is indication Russia isn't going in and that they already sold out their Novorussian brothers/sisters so they could have "foreign investments" that Kudrin and his cronies demand and state is Russia's only future

So I'm a realist. I see what is happening. Until Putin gets rid of people like Kudrin and not actually boost him and support him, the rest of the talk of supporting Donbass and alike can be thrown out the window. At this point, Russian authorities are more or less good goys and part of globalists. Kudrin may have no power but his policies are being accepted and pushed.  If you want Russia to go the path of supporting Novorussia and ready for conflict against Ukraine and west, it needs to gear its economy towards autarky and growth in domestic consumption.  Outside of that, it is a nation heavily relying on foreigners and their consumption for large amounts of cash injections.

Ukraine is still a mini Russia all the way to Dnieper and further down to Odessa and dare I say cross over to Moldova. Everyone knows that and until Russia pulls its finger out and protects that space, they will be globally perceived as push-overs. Crimea only did enough to contain the situation, Donbas was a tie (half of it is occupied). The rest of vast Russian European territories are still occupied. International relations are a lot about projecting one's power and less about giving a nice speech at the UN.

KiloGolf wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:nah, I would have been an asset cause I would know that human rights tribunals that weren't exactly a thing, is meaningless in times of a major war and I wouldn't have had an issue ordering the bombardment of Kiev or Lviv to remove such scum. But these days? Its just you know - lovey dovey from the world in a horrifically skewed manner in the pretext that east can do all wrong but not west. In other words, Russia couldn't get away with doing that today without 24/7 bombardment in media which could do real damage to international trade and security (would give justification to NATO and make Russia's current partners uneasy). I noticed that over the years Russia sunk tens of billions (or more) dollars equivalent into Ukraine and what did it get out of it? Nothing but a stab in the back and a huge headache. Russia needs to strengthen itself more economically before going in. The liberal economic structure that is confirmed to continue for the future (With Putin siding with Kudrin on economic development) is indication Russia isn't going in and that they already sold out their Novorussian brothers/sisters so they could have "foreign investments" that Kudrin and his cronies demand and state is Russia's only future

So I'm a realist. I see what is happening. Until Putin gets rid of people like Kudrin and not actually boost him and support him, the rest of the talk of supporting Donbass and alike can be thrown out the window. At this point, Russian authorities are more or less good goys and part of globalists. Kudrin may have no power but his policies are being accepted and pushed.  If you want Russia to go the path of supporting Novorussia and ready for conflict against Ukraine and west, it needs to gear its economy towards autarky and growth in domestic consumption.  Outside of that, it is a nation heavily relying on foreigners and their consumption for large amounts of cash injections.

Ukraine is still a mini Russia all the way to Dnieper and further down to Odessa and dare I say cross over to Moldova. Everyone knows that and until Russia pulls its finger out and protects that space, they will be globally perceived as push-overs. Crimea only did enough to contain the situation, Donbas was a tie (half of it is occupied). The rest of vast Russian European territories are still occupied. International relations are a lot about projecting one's power and less about giving a nice speech at the UN.

After 2014 there's no way Russia's going into Ukraine. Influence is lost in that region until the people realize their situation and do something about it. (economy, corruption, stale-mate war)

VladimirSahin wrote:After 2014 there's no way Russia's going into Ukraine. Influence is lost in that region until the people realize their situation and do something about it. (economy, corruption, stale-mate war)

And that will historically count as the largest defeat of Russia in its modern history. There's still a way to turn this around.

KiloGolf wrote:

VladimirSahin wrote:After 2014 there's no way Russia's going into Ukraine. Influence is lost in that region until the people realize their situation and do something about it. (economy, corruption, stale-mate war)

And that will historically count as the largest defeat of Russia in its modern history. There's still a way to turn this around.

No. Russia did lose "Ukraine" multiple of times. Still sucks though.

Sorry, but it seems to me that the Ukraine was always more of a liability than any prize for Russia.

I mean the Crimea is an asset and is useful to Russia and in more ways than one is Russian, but the Ukraine wants to be european... let them be.

Most europeans I know count Russia as not being european and I think that is something Russians should accept with pride.

Even if the Ukraine decided as one to become Russian and return to the russian fold it would bankrupt Russia to restore it to normal and there would be no guarantees that 20 years down the track they would not change their minds again because they were not getting a good enough deal from moscow for this or that.

The Ukraine is like eastern europe... freeloaders that stab you in the back the first chance they get... good riddance.

Let european taxpayers solve their problems for them... it is after all the land of milk and honey...

I am sure most european countries want a country they can send all those asylum seekers to... or should I say illegal economic migrants from the countries to the south they have broken with their foreign policies...

GarryB wrote:Most europeans I know count Russia as not being european and I think that is something Russians should accept with pride.

Russians are no less European than the Poles, Czechs or the Slovaks, that's for sure.

Without writing a wall of text about the effects that Ghengis Khan had, I think it is better to see the reasons for Russia to be seen as not European, as one of Western Europeans seeing anything Eastern European, and particulary Orthodox, as not really being European. Clearly by ethnic origins and language Russians are Eastern Slavonic and European. When the West talks about Russia being "Eastern", they do not mean "Mongol", except as an insult, but that the "Eastern" element is that of Orthodoxy and the influence of Konstantinopolis and so called "Byzantine Empire". To Western Europeans this is wrongly seen as "alien" and is totaly a product of the split between Catholic and Orthodox. Westerners point to St Basil's and say this is "Eastern" and even "Asian" [Mongol], but this is ignorance and it is simply a rather extravagant design of existing Orthodox architecture, and that is Greek-Roman. These so called "Eastern" onion domes are not exactly uncommon in Western Europe either and a journey around Germany and Austria will show this. Yet for this style to be seen in Russia as "Mongol" or something is ridiculous. Old surviving wooden Orthodox churches do not look like anything found East of Urals, instead they look more like a variant of Skandinavian "Stave churches" with added decoration, and lots of bells. Seems to me that at least parts of Western Europe are less European than any Slavic or Orthodox country and it is via Orthodoxy that the old "Europa" survives. The core Russian population is European, the culture and religion are European, it is parts of the West that are becoming "other"...

Khepesh wrote:Without writing a wall of text about the effects that Ghengis Khan had, I think it is better to see the reasons for Russia to be seen as not European, as one of Western Europeans seeing anything Eastern European, and particulary Orthodox, as not really being European. Clearly by ethnic origins and language Russians are Eastern Slavonic and European. When the West talks about Russia being "Eastern", they do not mean "Mongol", except as an insult, but that the "Eastern" element is that of Orthodoxy and the influence of Konstantinopolis and so called "Byzantine Empire". To Western Europeans this is wrongly seen as "alien" and is totaly a product of the split between Catholic and Orthodox. Westerners point to St Basil's and say this is "Eastern" and even "Asian" [Mongol], but this is ignorance and it is simply a rather extravagant design of existing Orthodox architecture, and that is Greek-Roman. These so called "Eastern" onion domes are not exactly uncommon in Western Europe either and a journey around Germany and Austria will show this. Yet for this style to be seen in Russia as "Mongol" or something is ridiculous. Old surviving wooden Orthodox churches do not look like anything found East of Urals, instead they look more like a variant of Skandinavian "Stave churches" with added decoration, and lots of bells. Seems to me that at least parts of Western Europe are less European than any Slavic or Orthodox country and it is via Orthodoxy that the old "Europa" survives. The core Russian population is European, the culture and religion are European, it is parts of the West that are becoming "other"...

If the Francs, Germans, Scandinavians, Italo-Spaniards and AngloSaxons don't feel us Orthodox Christian Europeans are ''Europeans'', well they maybe want to come up with a different term to define themselves, as we came up with it in the first place.

This is not European:


Neither is this:


Good luck to Berlin and Brussels in finding a new name for their identity.

The problem with Ukraine is that its population now hates Russia and if Russia invaded it would become a major burden and liability for Russia.

On the other hand most of the Ukrainian land is Russian land, and should be somehow recovered. Having a NATO base in Kharkov would be disastrous.

But how do you reclaim a land whose inhabitants hate you?

Karl Haushofer wrote:But how do you reclaim a land whose inhabitants hate you?

Inhabitants go with the flow. Nothing will happen, especially in the Russian heartland in Ukraine. Right now the same people just go with it.

GarryB wrote:Most europeans I know count Russia as not being european

Many Russians agree with them.

Both countries’ populations are deeply divided on the issue of whether Russia belongs to Europe. Half of the German and half of the Russian population no longer consider Russia as part of Europe. This view was particularly strong among 30 to 44-year-olds. Moreover, the number of people who reject the idea that Russia belongs to Europe has grown considerably since 2008, particularly in Russia. This is clear from a comparison with a similar study* conducted by the Allensbach Institute: at that time, only one-third of Russians believed that Russia was not part of Europe.

ExBeobachter1987 wrote:

GarryB wrote:Most europeans I know count Russia as not being european

Many Russians agree with them.

Both countries’ populations are deeply divided on the issue of whether Russia belongs to Europe. Half of the German and half of the Russian population no longer consider Russia as part of Europe. This view was particularly strong among 30 to 44-year-olds. Moreover, the number of people who reject the idea that Russia belongs to Europe has grown considerably since 2008, particularly in Russia. This is clear from a comparison with a similar study* conducted by the Allensbach Institute: at that time, only one-third of Russians believed that Russia was not part of Europe.

I know not a single European that say Russia is not Europe. I'm living in Europe, of course.

The ukraine is a basket case and not worth saving... if they can turn on Russia once they can do it again.

Best thing for Russia to do is to close off relations and focus on improving and solving their own problems without worrying about charity and support for their retarded neighbours...

Eventually the west might want to return to normal relations and the opinions in eastern europe might change but Russia should not be in any hurry to return to relations and should very much not seek to return to the previous relationship.

When europe come crawling back Russia should get better terms... and stand firm on core issues.... ie none of that TPP rubbish and no to GMO food etc.

Firebird wrote:I think some people fail to understand the Ukraine situation.

Yes Russia seemed to have been asleep at the wheel in some ways.
But Putin was working an "extreme soft power" approach.
"Sure you idiots go with that bitch Europe, be told what to do by America, see where it gets you".
He then sorts out the Crimea and much of Novorossiya. Trump then wins, Brexit wins and now globalist extremism is taking a hit in the West. The EU was fucked by sanctions, and the Ukraine is fucked.

The solution is a federal Ukrainian region. With no centralised power, there isn't the need/advantage to promote "Ukrainian nationalism" and the big pot of money to misappropriate won't be available in Kiev because it will stay at indiv oblasts level. The oblasts then align with Russia or perhaps the EU in the case of Lvov etc. All in a loose confederation. No Nato involved. And even mickey mouse Ukrainian language will fade in significance.

The Ukraine (most of it anyway) will turn back to Russia, because thats where the economic even cultural synergy is. And also, Europe's citizens are fed up of cheap, low wage import labour. And the Ukraine does NOT want its kids brainwashed into homosexuality, tranney-ism and "welcoming wonderful Muslim extremists".

I'll keep on saying what I have always been saying:
"Sooner or later, and one way or the other Ukraine will revert back to Russia"

I just feel a bit sad for something like KMDB, Antonov, Motor Sich...

Clearly, Morozov or Antonov did not devote all their lives to see this current Ukraina.

Russia will need to absorb Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, this is the only way for Russia to fully restore its capacity to be self sustainable and be strong enough to effectively fend off a combined Nato & co military and/or economic war. The US for example, wouldn't be as powerful as it is today if its only the size of Germany or France or the UK, so Size really does matter thats why Russia should maintain a policy of expansion at least into former soviet territories.