Syrian War: News #18

Isos wrote:https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201805291064896764-israel-iran-syria-border-forces/

SAA to retake the control of the south border. Deal with Israel not to include iranian and hezbollah and they don't strike SAA for the israeli border.

Control Over S Syria Borders to Be Handed to Damascus - Source AFP 2018 / JALAA MAREY
MIDDLE EAST

11:47 29.05.2018(updated 14:27 29.05.2018) Get short URL18732

Control over the southern borders of Syria, including the al-Tanf area, will be handed over to the government forces of Syria after the Paris talks, a source familiar with the situation told Sputnik.

"All areas on the (southern) border will be transferred to the government of Syria, an agreement on the UN Zone for Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) will be resumed on the Golas Heights, the presence of Iranian forces in the border areas is not stipulated," the source told Sputnik.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to insist that Iran should leave the entire territory of Syria.

"We are working against the Iranian military presence in Syria and we will not be satisfied if it leaves only the southern part of Syria," the prime minister said. "The long-range missiles that Iran is trying to deploy there threaten Israel from an even greater distance, and therefore Iran must leave the entire territory of Syria."

Israel, Russia Agree on Syrian Forces Deployment

Earlier in the day, Israel and Russia have agreed to deploy the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad near the Israeli northern borders, the Channel 2 broadcaster reported on Tuesday.

In exchange for the Israeli concession, Russia promised to ensure that the Syrian pro-government troops deployed near the Israeli-Syrian border would not include Iranian forces and the Lebanese Hezbollah movement, the Channel 2 broadcaster reported, citing a high-ranking political source.

The media report, however, has yet to be commented on by Syrian authorities.

However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov stated that Moscow had no information about the reported deal between the countries.

The report comes a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Jewish state would never accept any Iranian military presence "anywhere" in Syria, thus, repeating his earlier statements warning Tehran against gaining a foothold in the Arab Republic.

READ MORE: Hypothetical War Scenario: Who Would Prevail, Iran or Israel?

In this photo taken on Tuesday May 23, 2017, provided by the Syrian anti-government activist group, the Hammurabi's Justice News, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, shows a U.S.-backed anti-government Syrian fighter form Maghaweer al-Thawra stands on a vehicle with heavy automatic machine gun, left, next of an American soldier who also stands on his armored vehicle, right, as they take their position at the Syrian-Iraqi crossing border point of Tanf, south Syria
AP PHOTO / HAMMURABI'S JUSTICE NEWS
Daesh-Linked Terror Groups Seen in Syrian al-Tanf Controlled by US - Lavrov

The decades-long tensions between the countries have further escalated after the Israeli Air Force’s attack on dozens of what it called "Iranian targets" in Syria earlier in May. Its turn, Iran, has yet again reiterated that it has no bases in the Arab Republic, while exclusively its military advisors are present in the country in order to help the Syrian government fight terrorism.
Commenting on the attack, Damascus stated that Syria would counter all the attacks by the Israeli forces on its sovereign territory and will not hesitate to strike Israeli military targets as it has a right for self-defense.

READ MORE: Netanyahu: Iran Should Be Denied Any Military Presence in Syria

The Golan Heights, seized by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War and annexed 14 years later, are also one of the main sources of tensions between Israel and Syria. The international community has not recognized Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, with the UN condemning the move in 1981 and 2008 and Tel Aviv saying that it the territory, which has remained an apple of discord for Israel and Syria, would never be returned to Damascus.

Israel Using ‘Planned Provocations’ to ‘Get the US into a War With Iran’

AP Photo / Pablo Martinez Monsivais
OPINION
02:05 11.05.2018 (updated 02:18 11.05.2018) Get short URL496010

The escalation of violence near the Golan Heights and Damascus this week is part of a neoconservative plan to lasso the US into war with Iran, an expert told Sputnik.

Mark Sleboda, a security and international affairs analyst, says the most recent escalation of violence between Israel and Syria shows Israel intends to start a conflict with Iran and seek US support for a larger war campaign.

​What Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "wants, more than anything else, is to get the US into a war with Iran," Sleboda told Radio Sputnik's Loud & Clear on Thursday.

"There are plenty of neocons in Washington surrounding [US] President [Donald] Trump that want the same thing and are all too willing to play along with this," the analyst said.

Almost immediately after Trump began his speech announcing the US' exit from the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, on Tuesday, Israeli authorities put their soldiers on "high alert" in the Golan Heights, citing heightened Iranian activity across Israel's northern border.

File Photo of an Iranian Missile Launch
AP PHOTO / AMIR KHOLOUSI, ISNA

Israel-Iran Escalation Dangerous, Distracts From Anti-Daesh Fight - Moscow

Israel also said Tuesday that Iran might conduct missile attacks, prompting the opening of bomb shelters and the movement of military assets to the Golan Heights. The Golan was seized by Israel from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War and has been occupied by Israel ever since.

Within hours of Trump's announcement, Damascus accused the Israel Defense Forces of firing on targets south of the Syrian capital in the al-Kiswah area. Western media later called one of the targets an Iranian convoy.

If it seems like these developments were orchestrated, it's because they probably were, Sleboda told hosts Brian Becker and John Kiriakou.

The building of consulate of the USA in Jerusalem. Further in this building the American Embassy will be located
SPUTNIK / AMIT SHAAL

Not Even Half of Invited Diplomats Will Attend US Embassy Opening in Jerusalem

"In fact, the Russian Duma member who heads up the Foreign Relations Committee specifically called out that this looks like a planned provocation intended to be conducted in stages up an escalatory ladder," the Moscow-based analyst noted.

"Israel, which has previously claimed that it was attacking Syria — it's attacked Syria illegally, aggressively, over 100 times since 2011, since the conflict began," Sleboda said of Israel's involvement in the Syrian civil war. "But they've been ramping it up."

eehnie wrote:The fight in Daraa begins.

JohninMK wrote:

eehnie wrote:The fight in Daraa begins.

Link? I can't find anything on this operation being underway yet. This is latest I can find 13 hours or so after your post.


Qalaat Al Mudiq
‏ @QalaatAlMudiq
25m25 minutes ago
Replying to @QalaatAlMudiq

NW. #Daraa: while Regime Offensive looming, heavy clashes & shelling continue btwn Rebels & #ISIS in #Yarmouk Basin with usual statu quo.

eehnie wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:There's been a lot of transporting of equipment from Russia and Iran and more on the way.  Recently kornet-D added to the SAA list of weapons. What will be next? I am actually surprised we haven't seen Bmp-3 especially with Russians better armour than bmp-1&2 but mostly for its gun choice of 30mm long range ATGW and low velocity gun ideal for armour likely to encounter and blasting buildings. Kornet-T better protection than kornet -D as well. Chosta/hosta another useful piece of kit. And laser guided munitions using 2S7. Maybe even a handful of Bmo-T

The war will likely continue long, basically because the US and Israel impose war. Russia knows that when the Syrian war stops, the US aid to the rebels and Israel will move to rearm Ukraine or Georgia.

The logical decline in the numbers of the oldest weapons in Syria, Russia and Asia can lead to more intense help of Russia, Iran and other countries with some weapons:

LAND ARMAMENT LIKELY NEEDS

Artillery Towed Anti-tank: (M)T-12
by declining numbers of ZIS-3, D-44, D-48, BS-3c (M)T-12
by declining numbers of other man-portable recoiless weapons like the SPG-9

Artillery Towed Mortar: Nona-K
by declining numbers of Vasilek, M-240, M-43, M-160

Infantry Reconnaisance: BRDM-2
by declining numbers of BRDM-1, BRDM-2

Infantry IFV: BMD-1, BMP-1
by declining numbers of BMP-1

Surface-Surface Heavy rockets and missiles: Oldest Iranian models (Oghab,...)
by declining numbers of FROG-7

Surface-Surface MRLS: Oldest Iranian models (Fajr-1,...)
by declining numbers of BMD-20, BM-24, BM-14, BM-13

For other types of weapons, bigger stocks of T-54/55/62, M-30 122mm, M-46 130mm, BTR-60, D-20 152mm, ZU-23(-2) 23mm, PT-76, S-60 57mm, D-1 152mm, and in lower level of SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, can sustain longer time the Syrian arsenals in the pre-war numbers.

In the case of the Surface-Surface weapons Russia seems to prefer to keep their BM-21 and other systems for the own defense, and Iran is being in charge of restoring the arsenals of Syria, despite the Israeli and US protests.

AIR ARMAMENT LIKELY NEEDS

Fighters: J-2(FT-2), J-5(F-5, FT-5) (from North Korea)
by declining numbers of MiG-15, MiG-21
by declining numbers of L-39 auxiliary aircraft used as combat aircraft in Syria

FGA: Be-6/12, H-5 (from North Korea)
by declining numbers of more modern combat aircrafts
by declining numbers of L-39 auxiliary aircraft used as combat aircraft in Syria

For other types of weapons, the help is more difficult.

With the end of the pockets in Syria, the role of the Syrian air force will change. It will be less oriented to ground attack, specially in the southern front, and will be more oriented to air defense roles, specially anti-drone and anti-missile roles.

SEA ARMAMENT LIKELY NEEDS

Warships: Project 61/01090
by declining numbers of Project 159

For other types of weapons, the help is more difficult.

The weapons bolded in fuchsia, of Russian origin, can leave the active service in Russia in 2-4 years. The Be-6/12 can have an inmediate total decommission in Russia, to go as help.

However, Israel is turning to Russia – and not the US – to ask for a guarantee that Iran and Hezbollah won’t establish bases on the borders and create a situation where the Syrian borders will be used as a platform to attack Israel in the future.

JohninMK wrote:Pretty good analysis

Russia and Damascus (and its allies) have agreed on a plan for the Syrian Army to liberate what remained of the south of Syria- Qunietra and Daraa. The deal will be discussed this week between senior members (Vice Ministers) of the Russian, US and Jordanian establishments where Damascus and Tehran are blessing the Russian effort and negotiation skills. The deal is clear: either the US pulls out of Tanf crossing or else there will be no deal and the Syrian Army will ask for the support of its allies to liberate the south. The Russian ball has been kicked onto the US field and it is now up to Washington. It can either decide to go to war alongside Israel against Damascus’s forces in the south, or it can pull out its occupation forces from the Syrian-Iraqi crossing.

The Syrian Army is gathering large forces to liberate the last pocket south of the capital Damascus where ISIS (under the name of Jaish Khaled Bin al-Waleed) and other jihadists and their allies occupy the part of southern of Syria bordering Israel and Jordan. Damascus and Amman are looking forward to seeing the Syrian Army regain the control of the borders and reopen the Naseeb crossing to restore one of the most important sources of income to both countries.

However, Israel is turning to Russia – and not the US –  to ask for a guarantee that Iran and Hezbollah won’t establish bases on the borders and create a situation where the Syrian borders will be used as a platform to attack Israel in the future.

Russia, Syria and Iran have all agreed on the next step to be taken to liberate the south and for all parties involved to be content. The Israeli demands to see only the Syrian army on its borders won’t be met ‘for free’: there is a price to be paid and the price is the al-Tanf crossing currently occupied by the US forces.

The US forces also occupy part of north-east Syria and the main eastern commercial crossing between Iraq and Syria (al-Tanf). Actually, there is no direct benefit to the US to have forces in Syria – except to support Israel – and the control of the crossing serves either to push the thousands of militants trained by the Pentagon to attack Syrian territories (to no strategic avail) or to slow down the Syrian economy. This is why Russia and its allies expect Tel Aviv to put pressure on Washington to pull out its forces from al-Tanf in exchange for Israeli “peace of mind” on the borders.

However, there are several different scenarios possible here:

   Israel accepts and asks the US to free the Syrian-Iraqi crossing. The Syrian Army will take control of the south by attacking the jihadists and their allies
   Israel refuses: the Syrian Army will attack the jihadists with its allies. If Israel reacts by bombing the attacking forces, Damascus and its allies have already established a new Rule Of Engagement (ROE) and will retaliate by hitting targets in the occupied Golan Heights and beyond. The risk of a spill-over war between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran is high. Is the Israeli internal front ready for a wider war?
   Israel and the US raise their demands and ask for the withdrawal of all Iranian forces from Syria: this is an impossible request to meet for Russia. Iran is based in Syria since the late President Hafez Assad allowed the Iranian revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to support the Lebanese resistance against the Israeli invasion in 1982. Moreover, Syria asked for the support of Iran and its allies in 2013, more than two years before the Russian intervention. Also, Tehran and Damascus – both members of the trio “Axis of the Resistance” (Syria, Iran, Hezbollah) – agree on all issues related to the war in Syria; how to conduct it and what political outcome should be reached. This harmony is not equal to the one between Moscow and Damascus. Thus, Russia is in no position to ask the Syrian government to impose an Iranian withdrawal from Syria for a price that the Syrian Army can impose with or without Israel’s consensus.

Thus, Israel has limited space to manoeuvre: to go for a battle with unpredictable consequences against the “axis of the Resistance” and push President Bashar al-Assad to become aggressive, willing to hit Israel and turn from defensive to offensive. Otherwise, Israel could accept to minimise its gain by accepting the absence of Iran and its allies away from the borders.

In his last interview, Assad said that his only option was “to improve air defence, this is the only thing we can do, and we are doing it”. To the “Axis of the Resistance” this is a pure defensive attitude that doesn’t necessarily meet the way Israel should be faced. Iran and its allies would like to show Israel a more aggressive attitude by taking the offensive battle much further than Assad currently wishes. Therefore, the option to have only the Syrian Army on the Israeli occupied Golan heights and on the 1974 demarcation line is all to Israel’s advantage.

There are differences in the way Russia is handling the Syrian dossier with its close allies, though not enough to spoil the relationships. Russia would like to move forward with political reconciliation as fast as possible, ask Damascus to re-write the constitution and see the US out of Tanf, so that the occupation forces (US and Turkey) are concentrated only in the north.

Damascus would not ask Iran and its allies – today – to pull out now unless the danger was over. It has the intention of reviewing (or rather re-writing, as Moscow wishes) the constitution and seeking the withdrawal of all foreign occupation forces.

Regardless of whether the Israeli ‘has the guts’ to ask Syria which forces it can keep on its territory and which forces it can’t, what is certain is that both Russia and the “Axis of the Resistance” want the liberation of the south and would go along with asking Iran and Hezbollah to keep away far from the borders. The “Axis” seems very comfortable with the idea of leaving southern Syria, confident that local Syrian forces are today, after more than 7 years of war, very well equipped with warfare experience and strong ideology to tread an identical path with the “axis” in relation to their animosity to Israel.  But now, the head of the US in al-Tanf, on a plate, is the non-negotiable price.

https://ejmagnier.com/2018/06/03/deal-or-no-deal-us-forces-to-exchange-al-tanaf-for-iran-and-hezbollah-in-the-south-of-syria/

"Superpower Russia key to settlement of Syria, Ukraine conflicts" – Austria’s Kurz to Putin  

Netanyahu negotiated Israel’s withdrawal from Golan Heights with Assad: former adviser

By News Desk - 2018-06-066

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:20 P.M.) – The former Israeli presidential adviser, Uzi Arad, told a radio station on Wednesday that the Israeli and Syrian governments held two rounds of negotiations regarding Israel’s withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

According to Arad’s claims, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad held ‘serious’ negotiations on two occasions between 2009 and 2011.

Assad allegedly demanded Israel fully withdrawal from the Golan Heights, which was not necessarily opposed by Netanyahu, Arad stated.

“It was clear that the Syrians wanted to return to the 1967 lines, and despite this Netanyahu didn’t abandon the talks, there was no moment in which he said ‘over my dead body,’” he said.

The Times of Israel reported that the were first reports in 2012 by the Yedioth Ahronoth daily, citing US sources, calling the talks ‘intense’ and saying Netanyahu had agreed to withdraw from the entire Golan in exchange for a peace deal.

Despite the intensity of the negotiations, the first round of negotiations was said to have been rejected by Assad after Israel only offered to withdrawal 3.2 kilometers inside the Golan Heights.

Israel also offered Syria some Jordanian lands near ‘Aqaba during the first round of negotiations.

The second round also ended with both sides failing to agree.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s office has flatly denied these claims by Arad, adding that “the facts are incorrect. Our commitment has been — and still is — keeping the Golan. We won’t give up the Golan.”

eehnie wrote:
The US and Israel want badly to assure the limited gains that they still keep after seven years of war.

Unfortunately for them the war will continue, because Russia knows that if this war stops the US efforts will move to Ukraine, to Georgia, to the Caucasus Islamists... And Iran knows that if this war stops the US efforts will be focused to promote a war inside Iran...

Unfortunately for the US and Israel, missiles do not gain territory. And they have not infantry at this point in the area of the war.

The US and Israel know since long time that they are facing a defeat unless they enter with their own infantry. But they do not want to see US and Israeli tanks burning, with US and Israeli soldiers burning inside.

A retirement of Israel of the Golan can be forced.

US wants Saudi, UAE, Jordanian military presence in Syria – Kurdish politician

By News Desk - 2018-06-064


Gelo Iso, the president of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Party, shared with Sputnik that the representatives of the Arab states brought by the US to the negotiations with Syrian tribes, namely Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, expressed their willingness to participate in rebuilding Syrian cities, especially Raqqa.

But the US wants more than just funding from Arab states to restore Syria — Washington wants the three states to establish a military presence in northern Syria, Iso added.

According to him, Washington wants to transfer responsibility for the Sunni-inhabited territories to them, but the Arab states are hesitating to give affirmative answer, as they feel it might be a possible trap from the US.

“Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE want to create forces of an Arab coalition in northern Syria, but several factors exist that make them waiver on this decision. The key factor is the possible reaction from Turkey, Russia and Iran, that might follow, if Arab forces deploy their troops to Syria,” the politician said.

Iso claimed that there is still no clarity with Arab states’ plans and so far they are only ready to supply humanitarian aid to Syria.

US President Donald Trump previously expressed the opinion that the US must not be the only one to bear the burden of what is happening in the Middle East and that other Arab states must also participate.

starman wrote:Still no Daraa offensive?