GarryB wrote: Two main points MUST change in those who are in charge of Syria:
- Neutral stance, Syrian government should normalize in a way that it will be able to assure country won't become a strategical leverage for any anti Turkish power.
- Reformist stance, Syrian government will reform, not pretend as if it does....
Interesting.... and what sort of conditions from Syria will you bow to?
What sort of reforming demands will Turkey capitulate to?
I rather doubt the Syrian government are expecting to walk into territory currently held by Turkish forces... like US forces just walked into places held by ISIS.
The point is that the territory in question belongs to Syria and is currently illegally occupied... do you want to hand it over, or do you want to fight for it?
Unlike the terrorists, Assads forces will have modern ATGMs and modern MANPADS and fairly decent air support...
If you want to make Syria fight for its land back, do you think they would refrain from supporting PKK forces inside Turkey?
I realise you think you have a say in Syrian affairs but that does not mean you do... they can be just as pig headed as you can...
Completely up to you of course... you can make it easy or you can make it hard... whether Turkish forces remain or withdraw Assads forces are going to have to fight for a bit to make the rebels think the negotiating table is their best option...
I did not post for warmongering, rather I pointed out that Assad cant fix everything with hard power. In fact this thought is the reason why country experiences hell on earth for almost one decade.
I definitely dont think guys in Kremlin will let Assad clash with Turkish forces without a serious series of talks in order to settle things. But there is a reality, Syria is not a place that 4 million of refugees would like to return at the moment. Yes, those lands are not Turkish and neither claimed to be, but if Turkey hosts 4 million of Syrian refugees most of which really affect the Turkish population, then Turkey has to have a say about this issue.
Furthermore, almost half of Syrian lands are in the hands of Turkish number one enemy. That completes the spice of the meal already on extreme heat.
The first point in my previous post, in my opinion, does not need any further explanation. If you wonder about the second, which you misunderstanding it as a "capitulation" I can talk about it a little more.
As I said, before all of these events and definitely after them there were/are a big crunch of Syrian population that are openly against Assad and his way of governance. Actually this big crunch was provocateable enough to start a war within Syria. And Assad just let it begin by sieging cities and towns to death.
Now, this is an issue that still remains today. Syrians here must go back Syria but the problem is they do not want to hand themselves over to a guy that wants to finish them off. Number one example is a Syrian farm worker in my grandparents village from Manbij. He just goes to Turkish controlled areas and never cross Assad controlled area.
Second issue is that Syrian army drains away as war continues and becomes a militia like organization. Almost half of Assad allies are irregular forces. The reformation of Syrian army is required together with reformation of government. These changes have to be made in coherence and should involve reconciliation like procedures.
Assad should let people form legal parties. Bloody hell Syria still has a single party! I dont even mention the need for atmosphere that fair elections can be held.
New constitution should be accepted and transition government should be formed.
I do not say Assad must go sort of things, in fact he may stay during transition period, in which he should not have extensive authority but definitely he needs to be proven as elected by comprehensive elections.
I do not think these are capitulation terms and in fact these are necessary for long term stability in Syria. Otherwise Syria will remain as it is -a shithole- and will contiously provoked by many different powers.
In my opinion, Turkish presence will end through a soft but fast handing over process to undoubtedly elected and legal government of Syrian Arab Republic.
Faster these happen, faster Turks will go back home. Other options are not good for neither side...