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Turkey is between the losers of the war. If Turkey realized not of it until now, they will realize soon.
Losers do not impose conditions.
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63 posters
Syrian War: News #18
eehnie- Posts : 2425
Points : 2428
Join date : 2015-05-13
Turkey is between the losers of the war. If Turkey realized not of it until now, they will realize soon.
Losers do not impose conditions.
AbdulhamidtheSecond- Posts : 220
Points : 222
Join date : 2017-01-14
eehnie wrote:
Turkey is between the losers of the war. If Turkey realized not of it until now, they will realize soon.
Losers do not impose conditions.
Ok, eehnie. Tell SAA to try pounding Turkish targets...
Do not forget the reason for Assad to hold power is the cargoships still floating through Bosphorus.
You hit the chest, we hold the throat...
George1- Posts : 18523
Points : 19028
Join date : 2011-12-22
Location : Greece
AbdulhamidtheSecond- Posts : 220
Points : 222
Join date : 2017-01-14
I am still glad though, Russian politicians behave sane and try to understand the gravity of the situation. Only you guys in this forum give Assad a crap. I bet ..
Visc- Posts : 118
Points : 120
Join date : 2015-09-09
Russian lawmaker suggests deploying nuclear weapons in Syria to respond to US sanctions
MOSCOW, August 24. /TASS/. The US policy of putting pressure on Russia has crossed the "red line," and Moscow should think about an asymmetric response, such as the deployment of its tactical nuclear weapons abroad, a senior Russian lawmaker told TASS on Friday.
"I believe that now Russia has to draw its own ‘red lines.’ The time has come to ponder on variants of asymmetric response to the US, which are now being suggested by experts and are intended not only to offset their sanctions but also to do some retaliatory damage," said Vladimir Gutenev, the first deputy head of the economic policy committee of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament.
Among such measures, the official named the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in other countries, such as Syria, the use of... Full article
US brings cruise missile carriers to Middle East for strikes against Syria - top brass
MOSCOW, August 27. /TASS/. The United States has been building the amount of cruise missile carriers in the Middle East for strikes against government forces in Syria after pre-planned provocation involving the use of chemical weapons in Idlib Province, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told the media on Monday.
"The United States keeps building up the cruise missile carriers group in the Middle East as part of preparations for another provocation in Idlib Province to be presented as an alleged use of chemical weapons," Konashenkov said.
He pointed out that "these preparations are fresh confirmation of US intentions to use as a pretext a likely simulation of the government forces’ chemical attack, which Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Jabhat al-Nusra - outlawed in Russia) militants are plotting with active support from British secret services."
Source
The U.S. is capable of launching an attack on Syria from any part of the Mediterranean Sea, the Russian Ministry of Defense said on Monday.
Recently, Russian military said that the militants are preparing to use chemical weapons in Syria, and the US could use this as a reason for a new attack on Syrian state facilities.
For this purpose, the destroyer USS The Sullivans, armed with 56 cruise missiles, arrived in the Persian Gulf several days ago, while a US В-1В bomber carrying 24 air-to-surface AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles has been deployed at Al Udeid air base in Qatar, Konashenkov noted.
Syrian air defenses reportedly placed on highest alert
BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:30 P.M.) – The Syrian air defenses have been placed on highest alert across the country, pro-government reporters claimed this afternoon.
These reports seem to have some truth behind them because a source at the Mezzeh Airbase said that they have been ordered to make preparations for a possible attack on Damascus.
The reason for placing the air defenses on the highest alert was not revealed; however, it is believed to be due to the potential threat of a U.S. strike on the capital or its surrounding area.
Earlier this week, the Russian Ministry of Defense accused the U.S. and its allies of making preparations to attack Syria.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the rebels in Idlib are preparing to launch a chemical weapons attack and blame it on the government.
They said the U.S. will use this chemical weapons attack to launch strikes against the government.
Source
MOSCOW, August 24. /TASS/. The US policy of putting pressure on Russia has crossed the "red line," and Moscow should think about an asymmetric response, such as the deployment of its tactical nuclear weapons abroad, a senior Russian lawmaker told TASS on Friday.
"I believe that now Russia has to draw its own ‘red lines.’ The time has come to ponder on variants of asymmetric response to the US, which are now being suggested by experts and are intended not only to offset their sanctions but also to do some retaliatory damage," said Vladimir Gutenev, the first deputy head of the economic policy committee of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament.
Among such measures, the official named the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in other countries, such as Syria, the use of... Full article
US brings cruise missile carriers to Middle East for strikes against Syria - top brass
MOSCOW, August 27. /TASS/. The United States has been building the amount of cruise missile carriers in the Middle East for strikes against government forces in Syria after pre-planned provocation involving the use of chemical weapons in Idlib Province, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov told the media on Monday.
"The United States keeps building up the cruise missile carriers group in the Middle East as part of preparations for another provocation in Idlib Province to be presented as an alleged use of chemical weapons," Konashenkov said.
He pointed out that "these preparations are fresh confirmation of US intentions to use as a pretext a likely simulation of the government forces’ chemical attack, which Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Jabhat al-Nusra - outlawed in Russia) militants are plotting with active support from British secret services."
Source
The U.S. is capable of launching an attack on Syria from any part of the Mediterranean Sea, the Russian Ministry of Defense said on Monday.
Recently, Russian military said that the militants are preparing to use chemical weapons in Syria, and the US could use this as a reason for a new attack on Syrian state facilities.
For this purpose, the destroyer USS The Sullivans, armed with 56 cruise missiles, arrived in the Persian Gulf several days ago, while a US В-1В bomber carrying 24 air-to-surface AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles has been deployed at Al Udeid air base in Qatar, Konashenkov noted.
Syrian air defenses reportedly placed on highest alert
BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:30 P.M.) – The Syrian air defenses have been placed on highest alert across the country, pro-government reporters claimed this afternoon.
These reports seem to have some truth behind them because a source at the Mezzeh Airbase said that they have been ordered to make preparations for a possible attack on Damascus.
The reason for placing the air defenses on the highest alert was not revealed; however, it is believed to be due to the potential threat of a U.S. strike on the capital or its surrounding area.
Earlier this week, the Russian Ministry of Defense accused the U.S. and its allies of making preparations to attack Syria.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the rebels in Idlib are preparing to launch a chemical weapons attack and blame it on the government.
They said the U.S. will use this chemical weapons attack to launch strikes against the government.
Source
Hannibal Barca- Posts : 1457
Points : 1467
Join date : 2013-12-13
Syria, Serbia and Gaza should get nukes yesterday. Iran should get top fighters and Yemen heavy artillery and attack helicopters. Taliban in Afghanistan should be supported the tiny bit required to regain the whole country. Scotland should be supported. That's for starters.
JohninMK- Posts : 15649
Points : 15790
Join date : 2015-06-16
Location : England
Ali Özkök - علي أزكوك
@Ozkok_
No-fly zone over northern #Syria? It is claimed that the #US deployed the AN/TPS-75 radar system with an operating range of 400 km in #YPG-held #Kobane.
Link: http://savunmasanayist.com/2018/08/28/abd-tarafindan-suriyeye-kurulan-an-tps-75-radari
GarryB- Posts : 40547
Points : 41047
Join date : 2010-03-30
Location : New Zealand
I did not post for warmongering, rather I pointed out that Assad cant fix everything with hard power. In fact this thought is the reason why country experiences hell on earth for almost one decade.
The problems in Syria regarding external terrorists had nothing to do with Assad, and everything to do with US and UK and Saudi Arabia wanting to regime change a stable peaceful country aligned with Iran and not the US.
Assad is rightly in the process of removing vermin from his country that are infected with a disease from outside the region... the US has already stated it is prepared to launch an attack on Syria if "chem weapons are used"... which is of course secret code for... Idlib has the last remnants of the criminals we were using to over throw Assad... if you defeat them you will probably find evidence of our support for the last decade or so and it also means we would really have to give up all hope of murdering Assad like the fine peace loving democracy spreaders that we are...
You want Turkish blood to be spilled protecting that... BTW wasn't it not that long ago that the US tried the same regime change game in Turkey... or are we going to forget that one?
I am sure if you oppose Assad and Russia in this they will stop using your leader and national heros as terrorist targets in their next NATO exercises and totally be your best friend forever...
I definitely dont think guys in Kremlin will let Assad clash with Turkish forces without a serious series of talks in order to settle things.
A sudden chlorine attack and I doubt they will get a choice... if the FUKUS decide to punish with missiles the Russians might decide launch platforms are fair game and this could seriously escalate rapidly... obviously the FUKUS would need to target air defence forces first... once they have targeted them with a lot of missiles Russian forces might decide to defend more than just their own positions and people... the US does not have a great record in terms of targeting... chinese embassies, baby milk factories school buses with children in Yemen... marriages everywhere...
But there is a reality, Syria is not a place that 4 million of refugees would like to return at the moment. Yes, those lands are not Turkish and neither claimed to be, but if Turkey hosts 4 million of Syrian refugees most of which really affect the Turkish population, then Turkey has to have a say about this issue.
Tell them they get free health care and education and unemployment benefits in Europe...
Turkey spend years getting cheap oil from ISIS controlled Syrian oilfields... use those billions of dollars to pay for it...
Furthermore, almost half of Syrian lands are in the hands of Turkish number one enemy. That completes the spice of the meal already on extreme heat.
Number one enemy... is that the PKK or the US?
Ultimately I think the US is doing more damage to Turkey than the PKK ever could, but anyway... they are next.
Now, this is an issue that still remains today. Syrians here must go back Syria but the problem is they do not want to hand themselves over to a guy that wants to finish them off. Number one example is a Syrian farm worker in my grandparents village from Manbij. He just goes to Turkish controlled areas and never cross Assad controlled area.
You need to send them to Saudi Arabia and the US and other places that funded the civil war...
Second issue is that Syrian army drains away as war continues and becomes a militia like organization.
Actually I would say the opposite... otherwise you would not be so worried... a rag tag group of militia wouldn't have a chance of taking Idlib...
Assad should let people form legal parties. Bloody hell Syria still has a single party! I dont even mention the need for atmosphere that fair elections can be held.
New constitution should be accepted and transition government should be formed.
Could turn it around and ask why people who took up arms against the Syrian government and Syrian people have any say in the future of Syria... especially the foreign nutters...
The Syrian government wants to eliminate the terrorists before starting talks with the opposition... if the opposition wants to remain with the terrorists then that is their choice.
If the opposition wants to join the Syrian army and destroy the terrorists... once those terrorists are destroyed then talks can begin on a new Syria.
In my opinion, Turkish presence will end through a soft but fast handing over process to undoubtedly elected and legal government of Syrian Arab Republic.
Not going to happen until the foreign terrorists are eliminated...
Ok, eehnie. Tell SAA to try pounding Turkish targets...
Do not forget the reason for Assad to hold power is the cargoships still floating through Bosphorus.
You hit the chest, we hold the throat...
No gas, no BRICS, but when you don't get S-400 you will get F-35s... back into the arms of the US... wonder when they will try again to murder your leader?
Cargo ships can go the long way... they just will arrive later, but the level of hostility will be reflected back to you... they will let you stay in NATO of course... you occupy a useful location, but they will never let you in the EU...
The fact is that Syria is not a country without a leader and a government, and step one for a future for Syria is to remove all terrorist elements... if the opposition to assad want to align with terrorists then they will be eliminated too, but I suspect they are not that stupid. So far however they seem happy with people who burn women alive and decapitate 14 year old boys, so please spare me the Assad is evil and is the problem bullshit.
No-fly zone over northern #Syria? It is claimed that the #US deployed the AN/TPS-75 radar system with an operating range of 400 km in #YPG-held #Kobane.
A nofly zone is more than just a radar...
GarryB- Posts : 40547
Points : 41047
Join date : 2010-03-30
Location : New Zealand
I should say I am biased... I don't like the American government or NATO, but being a New Zealander I have respect for Turkey.
Our people came to your country a hundred years ago with guns... we fought and left.
You treated our dead with respect... you didn't have to, but you did, and I respect Turkey for that.
I understand that historically you are enemies of Russia.... but then being a New Zealander technically I should be anti Russia too.
I look at the hardships over the centuries they have endured, yet they don't blame their neighbours... you never hear a Russia say we are behind the west because Germany or France invaded us... or that period just after WWI when Poland invaded Russia and pinched a lot of land...
In comparison the whiny europeans are always complaining about this or that... to the point where the commies were as bad as the nazis... yet when they get western investment as shown in China the west loves the cheap labour with no labour rights and the Chinese managed to turn that into economic development and growth... long way to go yet, but they must be the most successful communists on the planet...
I personally think the Russians will treat Turkey with respect and I really don't think that is something you will ever get from the EU or US... how long have you been a loyal NATO ally with Jupiter missiles and nuclear bombs on your territory making you a nuclear retaliation target of the Soviet Union...
Our people came to your country a hundred years ago with guns... we fought and left.
You treated our dead with respect... you didn't have to, but you did, and I respect Turkey for that.
I understand that historically you are enemies of Russia.... but then being a New Zealander technically I should be anti Russia too.
I look at the hardships over the centuries they have endured, yet they don't blame their neighbours... you never hear a Russia say we are behind the west because Germany or France invaded us... or that period just after WWI when Poland invaded Russia and pinched a lot of land...
In comparison the whiny europeans are always complaining about this or that... to the point where the commies were as bad as the nazis... yet when they get western investment as shown in China the west loves the cheap labour with no labour rights and the Chinese managed to turn that into economic development and growth... long way to go yet, but they must be the most successful communists on the planet...
I personally think the Russians will treat Turkey with respect and I really don't think that is something you will ever get from the EU or US... how long have you been a loyal NATO ally with Jupiter missiles and nuclear bombs on your territory making you a nuclear retaliation target of the Soviet Union...
GarryB- Posts : 40547
Points : 41047
Join date : 2010-03-30
Location : New Zealand
Then there is this:
https://www.rt.com/news/syria-no-fly-zone-121/
Of course in Libya it was NATO planes enforcing the no fly zone and there were no S-400 systems present... I rather suspect no one will try to enforce a no fly zone that does not have a UNSC supporting vote with Russian aircraft and Russian SAMs present...
Actually did a quick search regarding no fly zone over syria and got a Sputnik page from 2016 about the same thing... so I would not hold my breath of the current call for said zone... and the link above is from 2011...
Maybe they are hoping third time is the charm?
https://www.rt.com/news/syria-no-fly-zone-121/
Of course in Libya it was NATO planes enforcing the no fly zone and there were no S-400 systems present... I rather suspect no one will try to enforce a no fly zone that does not have a UNSC supporting vote with Russian aircraft and Russian SAMs present...
Actually did a quick search regarding no fly zone over syria and got a Sputnik page from 2016 about the same thing... so I would not hold my breath of the current call for said zone... and the link above is from 2011...
Maybe they are hoping third time is the charm?
JohninMK- Posts : 15649
Points : 15790
Join date : 2015-06-16
Location : England
Here we go
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Lavrov has warned the West not to interfere in Syrian and Russian forces engaged in antiterror actions in the northwest province of Idlib: "I hope our Western partners will not give in to [rebel] provocations and will not obstruct an antiterror operation," he said.
This as Reuters reports that a planned "phased offensive" is imminent and as massive Syrian Army reinforcements and military convoys have been filmed this week heading toward the last major anti-Assad holdout. Reuters reports based on Syrian pro-government allied sources:
The offensive would initially target southern and western parts of the insurgent territory, but not yet Idlib city, said the source, an official in the regional alliance backing Assad. “The final touches for the first stage will be completed in the coming hours,” the official added, without saying when it would start.
Lavrov called Idlib a "festering abscess" that needed to be “liquidated” of terrorists and jihadists, according to reports. "I hope our Western partners will not give in to [rebel] provocations and will not obstruct an antiterror operation," he said in comments made Wednesday.
Mention of "provocations" is a reference to Russian assertions this week that the al-Qaeda group that controls Idlib, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, is planning to stage a "chemical attack" incident in order to blame Syrian and Russian forces, in the hopes that the West will intervene militarily against Damascus.
Russia now says it has staged its largest naval build-up in the Mediterranean since its entry into the war at the invitation of Damascus in 2015.
Lavrov further mentioned Turkey in his Wednesday statements, saying Moscow was in contact with Turkey and the U.S. on the situation in Idlib, noting there is a "full political understanding" between Moscow and Ankara, though the Russian FM didn't provide details.
Meanwhile, NATO has confirmed the large Russian battleship and naval presence off Syria's coast, and has called on all external powers to exercise "restraint"; and a United Nations spokesman has warned that "up to 800,000 people could be displaced and that the number of people who are in need of humanitarian assistance." In statements made on Tuesday the US State Department reiterated to reporters the United States "will respond to any verified chemical weapons use in Idlib or elsewhere in Syria ... in a swift and appropriate manner."
Spokeswoman Heather Nauert said further that senior U.S. officials have engaged with their Russian counterparts "to make this point very clear to Damascus" — that chemical weapons "will not be tolerated" — and could meet with massive military response. She also repeated that Assad would be held responsible.
Russian state sources on Wednesday cited the Russian Defense Ministry to say it has detailed intelligence confirming militants in Idlib are planning a chemical "provocation". Per RT News: The Russian military has received information from several sources in Idlib Province that “a large supply of poisonous agents has been brought to the city of Saraqib on two trucks from the village of Afs,” Major-General Aleksey Tsygankov, head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the opposing sides in Syria, said in a statement. The chemicals were delivered to an arms depot, used by the militant group Ahrar al-Sham, “accompanied by the eight members of the White Helmets organization,” Tsygankov said, adding that the cargo was met by two high-ranked Ahrar al-Sham commanders.
Russia says that as Idlib's al-Qaeda groups face imminent defeat, they plan to stage an event to gain the attention of the West, which has already promised it will hit back at Syrian government positions.
Analysts have predicted the Idlib campaign will be the bloodiest and longest grinding final battle of the war.
But what should by now be obvious to all is this: Assad, on the verge of total victory, has absolutely no incentive whatsoever to commit the one act that would ensure his own demise after emerging victorious after seven years of war.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-29/russian-fm-lavrov-warns-west-dont-interfere-idlib-assault-hours-away
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Lavrov has warned the West not to interfere in Syrian and Russian forces engaged in antiterror actions in the northwest province of Idlib: "I hope our Western partners will not give in to [rebel] provocations and will not obstruct an antiterror operation," he said.
This as Reuters reports that a planned "phased offensive" is imminent and as massive Syrian Army reinforcements and military convoys have been filmed this week heading toward the last major anti-Assad holdout. Reuters reports based on Syrian pro-government allied sources:
The offensive would initially target southern and western parts of the insurgent territory, but not yet Idlib city, said the source, an official in the regional alliance backing Assad. “The final touches for the first stage will be completed in the coming hours,” the official added, without saying when it would start.
Lavrov called Idlib a "festering abscess" that needed to be “liquidated” of terrorists and jihadists, according to reports. "I hope our Western partners will not give in to [rebel] provocations and will not obstruct an antiterror operation," he said in comments made Wednesday.
Mention of "provocations" is a reference to Russian assertions this week that the al-Qaeda group that controls Idlib, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, is planning to stage a "chemical attack" incident in order to blame Syrian and Russian forces, in the hopes that the West will intervene militarily against Damascus.
Russia now says it has staged its largest naval build-up in the Mediterranean since its entry into the war at the invitation of Damascus in 2015.
Lavrov further mentioned Turkey in his Wednesday statements, saying Moscow was in contact with Turkey and the U.S. on the situation in Idlib, noting there is a "full political understanding" between Moscow and Ankara, though the Russian FM didn't provide details.
Meanwhile, NATO has confirmed the large Russian battleship and naval presence off Syria's coast, and has called on all external powers to exercise "restraint"; and a United Nations spokesman has warned that "up to 800,000 people could be displaced and that the number of people who are in need of humanitarian assistance." In statements made on Tuesday the US State Department reiterated to reporters the United States "will respond to any verified chemical weapons use in Idlib or elsewhere in Syria ... in a swift and appropriate manner."
Spokeswoman Heather Nauert said further that senior U.S. officials have engaged with their Russian counterparts "to make this point very clear to Damascus" — that chemical weapons "will not be tolerated" — and could meet with massive military response. She also repeated that Assad would be held responsible.
Russian state sources on Wednesday cited the Russian Defense Ministry to say it has detailed intelligence confirming militants in Idlib are planning a chemical "provocation". Per RT News: The Russian military has received information from several sources in Idlib Province that “a large supply of poisonous agents has been brought to the city of Saraqib on two trucks from the village of Afs,” Major-General Aleksey Tsygankov, head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the opposing sides in Syria, said in a statement. The chemicals were delivered to an arms depot, used by the militant group Ahrar al-Sham, “accompanied by the eight members of the White Helmets organization,” Tsygankov said, adding that the cargo was met by two high-ranked Ahrar al-Sham commanders.
Russia says that as Idlib's al-Qaeda groups face imminent defeat, they plan to stage an event to gain the attention of the West, which has already promised it will hit back at Syrian government positions.
Analysts have predicted the Idlib campaign will be the bloodiest and longest grinding final battle of the war.
But what should by now be obvious to all is this: Assad, on the verge of total victory, has absolutely no incentive whatsoever to commit the one act that would ensure his own demise after emerging victorious after seven years of war.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-29/russian-fm-lavrov-warns-west-dont-interfere-idlib-assault-hours-away
calm- Posts : 1484
Points : 1486
Join date : 2015-12-19
Location : Serbia
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un/u-n-fears-chemical-weapons-in-syria-battle-with-10000-terrorists-idUSKCN1LF157U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura told reporters that there was a high concentration of foreign fighters in Idlib, including an estimated 10,000 terrorists, but it would be better to set up humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians than rush into a battle which could turn prove to be a “perfect storm”.
Some 10,000 Nusra, Al-Qaeda Terrorists in Idlib Have to Be Defeated - De Mistura
https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201808301067595073-idlib-syria-de-mistura/
par far- Posts : 3496
Points : 3741
Join date : 2014-06-26
"THE EUROPEAN UNION BOYCOTTS RUSSIA’S SYRIA INITIATIVES."
The hopes of the Russian diplomats for the US, the EU countries and the UN humanitarian agencies’ participation in the reconstruction of Syria and the return of refugees to its territory were dashed. At the same time, China intends to intensify its participation in the conflict, and Damascus, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, is working on the return of the last stronghold of Islamists, province of Idlib, under its control.
In the Syrian crisis, China is trying on the role of mediator between the opposition and Damascus. Taking into account the location of the bulk of the pro-Saudi opposition (banned in Russia Jabhat al-Nusra) in Idlib, as well as the mobilisation of Moscow, Tehran and Damascus in this province after the elimination of the de-escalation zone in the south, it can be concluded that Beijing is trying to determine the feasibility of active participation in the Syrian dossier in relation to Idlib with access to more active interaction with Damascus in the medium term, including the participation in the large-scale infrastructure projects to restore the economy of Syria.
On August 3, the Chinese Ambassador to Syria and the Chinese military attaché discussed with representatives of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR) the possibility of involving their security forces in the government formations’ actions in Idlib. With the exception of UN peacekeeping operations, Beijing avoids taking part in hostilities beyond its own borders or its immediate region. The operation in Syria could be the first step for a more active presence in the areas of China’s national interests, except for the Chinese military base in Djibouti.
For China, first and foremost the important matter are the militants from the Islamic party of Turkestan, operating in Idlib. Beijing is interested in destroying the Uighur separatists before they return to central Asia or China. Therefore, if China decides to support the liberation of Idlib campaign, it will be of a local nature and relate to the neutralisation of leaders and militants-Uighurs. In this case, participation will be expressed in the direction of military advisers, intelligence structures and Special Forces. During the consultations, the military attaché raised the issue of the involvement of the Chinese police unit “Snow Leopard” in such operations.
From the point of view of possible foreign policy risks for its participation in the operation in Idlib, Beijing should take into account the possible complication of relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Turkey. Ankara sees the Uighurs as a loyal force and a tool to strengthen its influence in Idlib in opposition to pro-Saudi groups. So China will have to carefully approach any military intervention in Syria. Beijing needs to coordinate with Russia, the Syrian government and Turkey to avoid serious complications. The relevant statements from officials in Beijing, as well as the results of negotiations between Russia, Iran, Syria, Turkey and China on the status of Idlib may become indicators of the possible participation of the Chinese military in the Idlib operations.
Idlib – Barganing Chip
Currently, Idlib is a zone of residence of the irreconcilable opponents of President Assad, which is freely functioning with the permission of Moscow, Damascus, Tehran and Ankara. The existence of this stronghold of Jabhat al-Nusra is incompatible with Moscow and Damascus’s plans for the post-war structure of Syria. The question now is not even how this zone will exist, but how to eliminate the pro-Saudi component of the resistance. The solution to the problem of Idlib is the departure from the scene of one of the main external sponsors of the resistance, namely the KSA. For Saudi Arabia, the elimination of the pro-Saudi armed wing of the opposition in Syria means a sharp decline of its influence in this part of the Middle East, which changes the balance of power in the entire region.
To understand the situation with Idlib more clearly, it is necessary to recall the positions of the parties (Russia, Iran and Turkey). There is a consensus that Idlib is a zone where Ankara is the guarantor of peace. But the Turks do not agree with the position of Moscow and Damascus to eliminate Jabhat al-Nusra. Ankara stands for their “peaceful” absorption, following the example of the southern de-escalation zones, and Russia stands for a combination of carrot and stick, believing that until the militants see the prospect of their destruction, they will not compromise. The Turks want to keep this area under their control as an argument in the dialogue with Damascus and create a Sunni force there that will oppose Damascus, claiming a leading role in the executive. At the same time, they put pressure on the Kurds of northern Syria, fortunately, expectations for the implementation of Turkey’s agreements on the Kurdish issue with the United States, proved unrealistic.
In Astana, in July, Turkey was given time before the next meeting in the autumn to demonstrate that their proposals for the peaceful absorption of the pro-Saudi segment of the resistance are being implemented successfully. So far it does not work. Terrorists from Jabhat al-Nursa carried out in the province of Idlib arrests of warlords from groups that agree to reconciliation with the Syrian Army. The newspaper “Al Akhbar” reported this on August 10. At least 50 militant commanders who have come into contact with the Syrian command are under arrest. Jabhat al-Nusra has imposed a curfew in 17 locations in southeast Idlib, fearing that their inhabitants will revolt against gangs and call for help to the government troops, as happened earlier in East Ghouta and in the southern province of Deraa.
Terrorists control about 60 percent of the province, which is located on the border with Turkey. The rest of it is in the hands of the opposition from the Syrian Free Army and Islamic radical groups, the largest of which are Ahrar al-Sham and the Nureddin al-Zingi Brigades, which cooperate with Ankara. On August 1, it was announced in Idlib the creation of the National Liberation Front (NLF) coalition, which includes 14 opposition groups. Its numbers are estimated at 40 to 50 thousand fighters. The figure is clearly overstated; with such forces the issue of the Saudi presence in Idlib would have been resolved. The head of the NLF is the former field commander of the Faylak ash-Sham Brigade, Fadlallah al-Hajji. According to Al Akhbar, Ankara intends to use these powers to displace Jabhat al-Nusra from Idlib. Pro-Turkish groups tried to take control of Idlib a couple of years ago. It ended then in a split of Ahrar al Sham and the absorption of part of its military wing Jabhat al-Nusra
Damascus reserves the right to intervene in the situation. On August 10, the Syrian Air Force and artillery attacked Jabhat al-Nusra bases near the administrative border between the provinces of Hama and Idlib. As reported by the agency SANA, the attack on the militant positions was in response to the violation of the ceasefire in the northern de-escalation zone. Command centres of the militants and weapons depots in areas of Tal Wasat, Zeyarah and Mansura were destroyed, and there were killed and injured in the ranks of Jabhat al-Nusra. Strikes were carried out also on the bases of the group Kataib al-Issa in the settlements of Kafr Nabudah, Tal al-Sakhr and Ma’rkabah, 48 kilometres northwest from the provincial capital, Hama. According to the agency SANA, foreign mercenaries are fighting in the ranks of this group, infiltrated from the Turkish border into the valley of Suk al Ghab near the river Orontes, from where they attack the villages and army checkpoints.
As reported by the news portal Surya al-En, Syrian pilots dropped leaflets from planes over the city of Taftanaz in Idlib province. In them, the command of the Armed Forces of the Republic called on local field commanders to follow the example of the armed opposition in East Ghouta and southern Syria, who agreed to reconciliation with the authorities. The Syrian army is preparing an operation to liberate the city of Jisr al-Shugur, captured by terrorists in April 2015. It stands on a mountain pass through which passes the strategic highway Latakia-Aleppo. In case of success of the operation, troops will be able to cut off the southern region of Idlib and block large outposts of armed groups in Khan Shaykhun, Ma’arat al-Nu’man and Kafr Zita. As far as can be seen, regardless of Ankara’s actions, it is planned to complete the dissection of the Idlib enclave into two parts, which the government forces tried to do on the eve of the aggravation of the situation in the south in the spring of 2018. Apparently, the operation will start in the autumn and will be synchronised with the military activity of pro-Turkish groups in Idlib.
The Army is Waiting for Orders
The command of the Syrian Armed Forces is sending reinforcements to the provincial centre of Aleppo (360 Km from Damascus) in the north of the country, where an operation against terrorists from Jabhat al-Nusra is being prepared. According to the newspaper al-Watan, the troops will conduct an attack on the towns of Kafr Hamra, Khoreitan, Anadan, al Bayanun and Khayan, to clear them from the gangs shelling the western neighbourhoods of Aleppo. The task of the government forces is to regain control of the southwestern suburbs of Aleppo, where Ahrar al-Sham and Nureddin al-Zingi operate. They are holding settlements near the highway going to the checkpoint Bab al Hawa on the Syrian-Turkish border. Their main outpost is located in Mansura, Khan al-Asal and al Atarib. According to al-Watan, the operation is also aimed at securing the eastern outskirts of Greater Aleppo, which will allow the reopening of the international airport in Nayreb.
The army offensive will begin on the front line near the administrative border of the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, where the military airfield Abu Duhur serves as a base for government forces. The troops will simultaneously attack the bases of the armed groups in the northeastern provinces of Latakia and Hama in order to eliminate the threat of their invasion of the coastal areas and the valley of Suk Al Ghab near the river Orontes. The Syrian Air Force is dropping leaflets over the cities of Jisr ash-Shughur, Taftanaz and Saraqib (Idlib province), seized by armed groups, urging militants to lay down their arms and surrender, following the example of the armed opposition in East Ghouta. These three cities are part of the de-escalation zones established in 2017 in Idlib province and surrounding areas.
Preparations are under way to launch military operations by government forces against not only pro-Saudi groups, but also, in some cases, pro-Turkish groups, which is particularly evident in the planned military operations in Aleppo. The beginning of the offensive is constrained only by Moscow’s position, which took a pause to determine the conditions for a compromise with Ankara on the actions in Idlib. The main question is, how much time Moscow averted to Ankara in order to separate radicals and moderates oppositions and to shift off its responsibility for the fate of the irreconcilable opposition?
The UN has Betrayed Syria
The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed with Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General for Syria Staffan de Mistura prospects for the return of refugees to Syria, as well as the need to “prevent the emergence of a humanitarian crisis in the city of Idlib”. This is stated by the press service of the State Department. Pompeo made it clear that although the United States supports the return of refugees to Syria, this should only happen when the situation in Syria is sufficiently safe, as well as with the participation of relevant UN entities. Pompeo and de Mistura agreed that “discussions on reconstruction are premature in the absence of a political solution, which in any case should lead to constitutional reform and open and fair elections”.
The State Department indicated that they discussed the progress in the formation of the so-called Constitutional Committee of Syria, the agreement on which was reached on the results of the congress of the Syrian National Dialogue held in Sochi on January 30. This structure, together with de Mistura, will have to prepare proposals for the elaboration of the county’s constitution. Earlier, the head of the press service of the State Department, Heather Nauert, recalled that the United States still considers the Geneva process the only viable way to find a political solution to the crisis in Syria, calling the other negotiations secondary. She spoke about the Astana format in such a fashion. Nauert said that in the near future, Washington will announce a doubling of efforts to support the Geneva process.
Thus the leadership of the US State Department together with relevant senior officials of the UN refused to participate in the campaign of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation on the organisation of the “massive return of refugees” to Syria. Having laid out this proposition through the Russian-American summit as a “new unifying idea for all foreign sponsors of the Syrian dossier”, the Russian Foreign Ministry believed that President Trump’s “Yes” in response to such an initiative is the solution. The US Secretary of State made it clear that there is no question of any return of Syrian refugees under Moscow’s auspices, as well as any initiative that can give Russia the illusion that it began to interact as a partner. The West will talk in this way only when it cannot do without the participation of the Russian side. At present, these are issues related to the competence of the coercive unit. That is why the National Security Advisor of the United States J. Bolton meets with Russian colleagues on a regular basis.
The strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation is clear: any way to break through the foreign blockade of Russia and to stimulate the collective West at the beginning of the joint work in the full format. In this regard, the topic of Syrian refugees and their return to their homeland was born. Europeans had to bite, for them it is important. And for the Lebanese and Jordanians, the question is urgent: “their” Syrian refugees are about six million people. And, theoretically, a joint plan for the restoration and improvement of Syria had to be put on the agenda. There are no other motives for the intensification of diplomatic and other efforts for the massive return of Syrian refugees. Neither infrastructure nor mass restructuring of the social consciousness is ready in the country. Who counted how many radicals and irreconcilable opponents of Bashar al-Assad’s regime are among the refugees? In the framework of the campaign we recreated the rear base anti-Assad resistance inside Syria.
The main reason for the failure of the initiative is that the West did not go for it. There, despite all disagreements, they are united in politically ignoring Russia. No initiatives from Moscow, even on the most topical issues for Europeans, will be accepted. The actions with the participation of Russia and France, when humanitarian aid was delivered to East Ghouta, gave rise to excessive illusions in the Russian Foreign Ministry, from which came the initiatives for the return of Syrian refugees. As for the UNHRC, this agency outright fulfills the US order for the evacuation of member of the White Helmets from Syria, and to believe that it will decide to cooperate with Moscow is naïve. This is a joint position of the UN, which became clear after Pompeo’s meeting with de Mistura. The West is not going to restore the destroyed infrastructure of Syria under any circumstances. The appeals of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation are ignored. This means a collective EU boycott of the Russian initiative. The same is true of Jordan.
The Lebanese leadership, given the influence that Iran has in that country, would most likely attempt to expel Syrian refugees from its territory. Beirut has enough problems with the Palestinians to look calmly at the presence of Syrians in Lebanon. However, according to external observers, the number of people willing to voluntarily return to their homeland does not exceed three thousand, despite the fact that this number will instantly fall to zero in the event of an intensification of the confrontation in Syria or violent actions against the returnees. The big question is, who in Lebanon will be ready and able to participate in the deportation of refugees to Syria, if such a decision is taken? Without victims, by definition, it cannot be implemented, which means the humanitarian risks that Moscow and official Damascus will be guilty of.
As for Turkey, the return of Syrian refugees into the territory controlled by Assad is not visible in the future. Many of them were assimilated in the country (Ankara is making significant efforts in this), and Erdogan needs them as a tool of pressure on the EU, allowing him to receive billions of euros from Brussels, keeping the European Union, primarily neighbouring Greece with its complex relations with Turkey and Germany as the goal of most illegal immigrant, under constant pressure. In addition, he considers Syrian refugees as potential residents of the Turkish-controlled north of Syria as opposed to the Kurds. So their return is out of the question.
The article is based on material from the Middle East Instite expert Yu. Schelgovin.
https://southfront.org/the-european-union-boycotts-russias-syria-initiatives/
The hopes of the Russian diplomats for the US, the EU countries and the UN humanitarian agencies’ participation in the reconstruction of Syria and the return of refugees to its territory were dashed. At the same time, China intends to intensify its participation in the conflict, and Damascus, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, is working on the return of the last stronghold of Islamists, province of Idlib, under its control.
In the Syrian crisis, China is trying on the role of mediator between the opposition and Damascus. Taking into account the location of the bulk of the pro-Saudi opposition (banned in Russia Jabhat al-Nusra) in Idlib, as well as the mobilisation of Moscow, Tehran and Damascus in this province after the elimination of the de-escalation zone in the south, it can be concluded that Beijing is trying to determine the feasibility of active participation in the Syrian dossier in relation to Idlib with access to more active interaction with Damascus in the medium term, including the participation in the large-scale infrastructure projects to restore the economy of Syria.
On August 3, the Chinese Ambassador to Syria and the Chinese military attaché discussed with representatives of the Syrian Arab Republic (SAR) the possibility of involving their security forces in the government formations’ actions in Idlib. With the exception of UN peacekeeping operations, Beijing avoids taking part in hostilities beyond its own borders or its immediate region. The operation in Syria could be the first step for a more active presence in the areas of China’s national interests, except for the Chinese military base in Djibouti.
For China, first and foremost the important matter are the militants from the Islamic party of Turkestan, operating in Idlib. Beijing is interested in destroying the Uighur separatists before they return to central Asia or China. Therefore, if China decides to support the liberation of Idlib campaign, it will be of a local nature and relate to the neutralisation of leaders and militants-Uighurs. In this case, participation will be expressed in the direction of military advisers, intelligence structures and Special Forces. During the consultations, the military attaché raised the issue of the involvement of the Chinese police unit “Snow Leopard” in such operations.
From the point of view of possible foreign policy risks for its participation in the operation in Idlib, Beijing should take into account the possible complication of relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Turkey. Ankara sees the Uighurs as a loyal force and a tool to strengthen its influence in Idlib in opposition to pro-Saudi groups. So China will have to carefully approach any military intervention in Syria. Beijing needs to coordinate with Russia, the Syrian government and Turkey to avoid serious complications. The relevant statements from officials in Beijing, as well as the results of negotiations between Russia, Iran, Syria, Turkey and China on the status of Idlib may become indicators of the possible participation of the Chinese military in the Idlib operations.
Idlib – Barganing Chip
Currently, Idlib is a zone of residence of the irreconcilable opponents of President Assad, which is freely functioning with the permission of Moscow, Damascus, Tehran and Ankara. The existence of this stronghold of Jabhat al-Nusra is incompatible with Moscow and Damascus’s plans for the post-war structure of Syria. The question now is not even how this zone will exist, but how to eliminate the pro-Saudi component of the resistance. The solution to the problem of Idlib is the departure from the scene of one of the main external sponsors of the resistance, namely the KSA. For Saudi Arabia, the elimination of the pro-Saudi armed wing of the opposition in Syria means a sharp decline of its influence in this part of the Middle East, which changes the balance of power in the entire region.
To understand the situation with Idlib more clearly, it is necessary to recall the positions of the parties (Russia, Iran and Turkey). There is a consensus that Idlib is a zone where Ankara is the guarantor of peace. But the Turks do not agree with the position of Moscow and Damascus to eliminate Jabhat al-Nusra. Ankara stands for their “peaceful” absorption, following the example of the southern de-escalation zones, and Russia stands for a combination of carrot and stick, believing that until the militants see the prospect of their destruction, they will not compromise. The Turks want to keep this area under their control as an argument in the dialogue with Damascus and create a Sunni force there that will oppose Damascus, claiming a leading role in the executive. At the same time, they put pressure on the Kurds of northern Syria, fortunately, expectations for the implementation of Turkey’s agreements on the Kurdish issue with the United States, proved unrealistic.
In Astana, in July, Turkey was given time before the next meeting in the autumn to demonstrate that their proposals for the peaceful absorption of the pro-Saudi segment of the resistance are being implemented successfully. So far it does not work. Terrorists from Jabhat al-Nursa carried out in the province of Idlib arrests of warlords from groups that agree to reconciliation with the Syrian Army. The newspaper “Al Akhbar” reported this on August 10. At least 50 militant commanders who have come into contact with the Syrian command are under arrest. Jabhat al-Nusra has imposed a curfew in 17 locations in southeast Idlib, fearing that their inhabitants will revolt against gangs and call for help to the government troops, as happened earlier in East Ghouta and in the southern province of Deraa.
Terrorists control about 60 percent of the province, which is located on the border with Turkey. The rest of it is in the hands of the opposition from the Syrian Free Army and Islamic radical groups, the largest of which are Ahrar al-Sham and the Nureddin al-Zingi Brigades, which cooperate with Ankara. On August 1, it was announced in Idlib the creation of the National Liberation Front (NLF) coalition, which includes 14 opposition groups. Its numbers are estimated at 40 to 50 thousand fighters. The figure is clearly overstated; with such forces the issue of the Saudi presence in Idlib would have been resolved. The head of the NLF is the former field commander of the Faylak ash-Sham Brigade, Fadlallah al-Hajji. According to Al Akhbar, Ankara intends to use these powers to displace Jabhat al-Nusra from Idlib. Pro-Turkish groups tried to take control of Idlib a couple of years ago. It ended then in a split of Ahrar al Sham and the absorption of part of its military wing Jabhat al-Nusra
Damascus reserves the right to intervene in the situation. On August 10, the Syrian Air Force and artillery attacked Jabhat al-Nusra bases near the administrative border between the provinces of Hama and Idlib. As reported by the agency SANA, the attack on the militant positions was in response to the violation of the ceasefire in the northern de-escalation zone. Command centres of the militants and weapons depots in areas of Tal Wasat, Zeyarah and Mansura were destroyed, and there were killed and injured in the ranks of Jabhat al-Nusra. Strikes were carried out also on the bases of the group Kataib al-Issa in the settlements of Kafr Nabudah, Tal al-Sakhr and Ma’rkabah, 48 kilometres northwest from the provincial capital, Hama. According to the agency SANA, foreign mercenaries are fighting in the ranks of this group, infiltrated from the Turkish border into the valley of Suk al Ghab near the river Orontes, from where they attack the villages and army checkpoints.
As reported by the news portal Surya al-En, Syrian pilots dropped leaflets from planes over the city of Taftanaz in Idlib province. In them, the command of the Armed Forces of the Republic called on local field commanders to follow the example of the armed opposition in East Ghouta and southern Syria, who agreed to reconciliation with the authorities. The Syrian army is preparing an operation to liberate the city of Jisr al-Shugur, captured by terrorists in April 2015. It stands on a mountain pass through which passes the strategic highway Latakia-Aleppo. In case of success of the operation, troops will be able to cut off the southern region of Idlib and block large outposts of armed groups in Khan Shaykhun, Ma’arat al-Nu’man and Kafr Zita. As far as can be seen, regardless of Ankara’s actions, it is planned to complete the dissection of the Idlib enclave into two parts, which the government forces tried to do on the eve of the aggravation of the situation in the south in the spring of 2018. Apparently, the operation will start in the autumn and will be synchronised with the military activity of pro-Turkish groups in Idlib.
The Army is Waiting for Orders
The command of the Syrian Armed Forces is sending reinforcements to the provincial centre of Aleppo (360 Km from Damascus) in the north of the country, where an operation against terrorists from Jabhat al-Nusra is being prepared. According to the newspaper al-Watan, the troops will conduct an attack on the towns of Kafr Hamra, Khoreitan, Anadan, al Bayanun and Khayan, to clear them from the gangs shelling the western neighbourhoods of Aleppo. The task of the government forces is to regain control of the southwestern suburbs of Aleppo, where Ahrar al-Sham and Nureddin al-Zingi operate. They are holding settlements near the highway going to the checkpoint Bab al Hawa on the Syrian-Turkish border. Their main outpost is located in Mansura, Khan al-Asal and al Atarib. According to al-Watan, the operation is also aimed at securing the eastern outskirts of Greater Aleppo, which will allow the reopening of the international airport in Nayreb.
The army offensive will begin on the front line near the administrative border of the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, where the military airfield Abu Duhur serves as a base for government forces. The troops will simultaneously attack the bases of the armed groups in the northeastern provinces of Latakia and Hama in order to eliminate the threat of their invasion of the coastal areas and the valley of Suk Al Ghab near the river Orontes. The Syrian Air Force is dropping leaflets over the cities of Jisr ash-Shughur, Taftanaz and Saraqib (Idlib province), seized by armed groups, urging militants to lay down their arms and surrender, following the example of the armed opposition in East Ghouta. These three cities are part of the de-escalation zones established in 2017 in Idlib province and surrounding areas.
Preparations are under way to launch military operations by government forces against not only pro-Saudi groups, but also, in some cases, pro-Turkish groups, which is particularly evident in the planned military operations in Aleppo. The beginning of the offensive is constrained only by Moscow’s position, which took a pause to determine the conditions for a compromise with Ankara on the actions in Idlib. The main question is, how much time Moscow averted to Ankara in order to separate radicals and moderates oppositions and to shift off its responsibility for the fate of the irreconcilable opposition?
The UN has Betrayed Syria
The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo discussed with Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General for Syria Staffan de Mistura prospects for the return of refugees to Syria, as well as the need to “prevent the emergence of a humanitarian crisis in the city of Idlib”. This is stated by the press service of the State Department. Pompeo made it clear that although the United States supports the return of refugees to Syria, this should only happen when the situation in Syria is sufficiently safe, as well as with the participation of relevant UN entities. Pompeo and de Mistura agreed that “discussions on reconstruction are premature in the absence of a political solution, which in any case should lead to constitutional reform and open and fair elections”.
The State Department indicated that they discussed the progress in the formation of the so-called Constitutional Committee of Syria, the agreement on which was reached on the results of the congress of the Syrian National Dialogue held in Sochi on January 30. This structure, together with de Mistura, will have to prepare proposals for the elaboration of the county’s constitution. Earlier, the head of the press service of the State Department, Heather Nauert, recalled that the United States still considers the Geneva process the only viable way to find a political solution to the crisis in Syria, calling the other negotiations secondary. She spoke about the Astana format in such a fashion. Nauert said that in the near future, Washington will announce a doubling of efforts to support the Geneva process.
Thus the leadership of the US State Department together with relevant senior officials of the UN refused to participate in the campaign of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation on the organisation of the “massive return of refugees” to Syria. Having laid out this proposition through the Russian-American summit as a “new unifying idea for all foreign sponsors of the Syrian dossier”, the Russian Foreign Ministry believed that President Trump’s “Yes” in response to such an initiative is the solution. The US Secretary of State made it clear that there is no question of any return of Syrian refugees under Moscow’s auspices, as well as any initiative that can give Russia the illusion that it began to interact as a partner. The West will talk in this way only when it cannot do without the participation of the Russian side. At present, these are issues related to the competence of the coercive unit. That is why the National Security Advisor of the United States J. Bolton meets with Russian colleagues on a regular basis.
The strategy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation is clear: any way to break through the foreign blockade of Russia and to stimulate the collective West at the beginning of the joint work in the full format. In this regard, the topic of Syrian refugees and their return to their homeland was born. Europeans had to bite, for them it is important. And for the Lebanese and Jordanians, the question is urgent: “their” Syrian refugees are about six million people. And, theoretically, a joint plan for the restoration and improvement of Syria had to be put on the agenda. There are no other motives for the intensification of diplomatic and other efforts for the massive return of Syrian refugees. Neither infrastructure nor mass restructuring of the social consciousness is ready in the country. Who counted how many radicals and irreconcilable opponents of Bashar al-Assad’s regime are among the refugees? In the framework of the campaign we recreated the rear base anti-Assad resistance inside Syria.
The main reason for the failure of the initiative is that the West did not go for it. There, despite all disagreements, they are united in politically ignoring Russia. No initiatives from Moscow, even on the most topical issues for Europeans, will be accepted. The actions with the participation of Russia and France, when humanitarian aid was delivered to East Ghouta, gave rise to excessive illusions in the Russian Foreign Ministry, from which came the initiatives for the return of Syrian refugees. As for the UNHRC, this agency outright fulfills the US order for the evacuation of member of the White Helmets from Syria, and to believe that it will decide to cooperate with Moscow is naïve. This is a joint position of the UN, which became clear after Pompeo’s meeting with de Mistura. The West is not going to restore the destroyed infrastructure of Syria under any circumstances. The appeals of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation are ignored. This means a collective EU boycott of the Russian initiative. The same is true of Jordan.
The Lebanese leadership, given the influence that Iran has in that country, would most likely attempt to expel Syrian refugees from its territory. Beirut has enough problems with the Palestinians to look calmly at the presence of Syrians in Lebanon. However, according to external observers, the number of people willing to voluntarily return to their homeland does not exceed three thousand, despite the fact that this number will instantly fall to zero in the event of an intensification of the confrontation in Syria or violent actions against the returnees. The big question is, who in Lebanon will be ready and able to participate in the deportation of refugees to Syria, if such a decision is taken? Without victims, by definition, it cannot be implemented, which means the humanitarian risks that Moscow and official Damascus will be guilty of.
As for Turkey, the return of Syrian refugees into the territory controlled by Assad is not visible in the future. Many of them were assimilated in the country (Ankara is making significant efforts in this), and Erdogan needs them as a tool of pressure on the EU, allowing him to receive billions of euros from Brussels, keeping the European Union, primarily neighbouring Greece with its complex relations with Turkey and Germany as the goal of most illegal immigrant, under constant pressure. In addition, he considers Syrian refugees as potential residents of the Turkish-controlled north of Syria as opposed to the Kurds. So their return is out of the question.
The article is based on material from the Middle East Instite expert Yu. Schelgovin.
https://southfront.org/the-european-union-boycotts-russias-syria-initiatives/
par far- Posts : 3496
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https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-august-30-2018-russia-says-terrorists-in-idlib-have-to-be-liquidated/
"YPG CELLS CARRY OUT SERIES OF OPERATIONS AGAINST TURKISH-BACKED FIGHTERS IN AFRIN (VIDEO)."
https://southfront.org/ypg-cells-carry-out-series-of-operation-against-turkish-backed-fighters-in-afrin-video/
"SYRIAN ARMY UNCOVERS WEAPONS CACHE WITH TOW MISSILES IN SOUTHWESTERN HAMA (VIDEO)."
https://southfront.org/syrian-army-uncovers-weapons-cache-with-tow-missiles-in-southwestern-hama-video/
par far- Posts : 3496
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"TURKEY IS TRYING TO CONVINCE HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM TO DISBAND ITSELF – REPORT."
"The Turkish intelligence is trying to convince Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to disband itself in order to prevent a large-scale attack ин the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on the opposition-held areas in northern Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on August 30.
According to the UK-based monitoring group, HTS’ leadership is refusing any peaceful solution and insisting on fighting till the end. However, the Turkish intelligence has not given up yet and it is still negotiating with the radical group.
A source familiar with the situation in northern Syria told the SOHR that the SAA and its allies have deployed tens of thousands of soldiers and around 2,000 armored vehicles around the opposition-held areas. The SOHR noted that this large force includes hundreds of former Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, who have reconciled with the Damascus government.
Some Syrian pro-government activists said that the SAA will launch its attack on HTS and its allies in the upcoming hours. However, this is not likely. Other sources believe that the attack will not begin before the Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit, which will be held on September 10 in Tehran."
https://southfront.org/turkey-is-trying-to-convince-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-to-disband-itself-report/
"The Turkish intelligence is trying to convince Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to disband itself in order to prevent a large-scale attack ин the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on the opposition-held areas in northern Syria, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on August 30.
According to the UK-based monitoring group, HTS’ leadership is refusing any peaceful solution and insisting on fighting till the end. However, the Turkish intelligence has not given up yet and it is still negotiating with the radical group.
A source familiar with the situation in northern Syria told the SOHR that the SAA and its allies have deployed tens of thousands of soldiers and around 2,000 armored vehicles around the opposition-held areas. The SOHR noted that this large force includes hundreds of former Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters, who have reconciled with the Damascus government.
Some Syrian pro-government activists said that the SAA will launch its attack on HTS and its allies in the upcoming hours. However, this is not likely. Other sources believe that the attack will not begin before the Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit, which will be held on September 10 in Tehran."
https://southfront.org/turkey-is-trying-to-convince-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-to-disband-itself-report/
GarryB- Posts : 40547
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And it is clearly Turkish support for the rebels that is making the terrorists think they will have support against the Syrian government forces... it is clearly time for Turkey to decide whether it wants a terror group on its border in a safe but lawless area, or if it wants terrorists eliminated from its borders...
LMFS- Posts : 5165
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Join date : 2018-03-03
Agree. This is good case to analyse the differences between patriotism and nationalism.
A patriotic Turkish government would make sure their borders are safe and their citizens respected and prosper. For this it is indispensable to be a rational, predictable partner who cultivates good relations with its neighbours.
A nationalist like Erdogan in his irrational supremacism keeps dreaming of grandeur and pissing off neighbours, enemies, proxies and allies alike. And increasingly painting himself into a corner because of the incoherent policies he needs to engage to satisfy his desire of wining on every bargain at the expenses of others. It should be clear by now that an alliance with Syria, Irak, Iran and Russia is the only way forward and that means getting rid of the gangs in Idlid, returning its land to Syria and agree with Damascus what is to be done with the Kurdish issue.
The day of reckoning is coming, hope Turkish government makes the right decisions
A patriotic Turkish government would make sure their borders are safe and their citizens respected and prosper. For this it is indispensable to be a rational, predictable partner who cultivates good relations with its neighbours.
A nationalist like Erdogan in his irrational supremacism keeps dreaming of grandeur and pissing off neighbours, enemies, proxies and allies alike. And increasingly painting himself into a corner because of the incoherent policies he needs to engage to satisfy his desire of wining on every bargain at the expenses of others. It should be clear by now that an alliance with Syria, Irak, Iran and Russia is the only way forward and that means getting rid of the gangs in Idlid, returning its land to Syria and agree with Damascus what is to be done with the Kurdish issue.
The day of reckoning is coming, hope Turkish government makes the right decisions
calm- Posts : 1484
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Join date : 2015-12-19
Location : Serbia
GarryB wrote:And it is clearly Turkish support for the rebels that is making the terrorists think they will have support against the Syrian government forces... it is clearly time for Turkey to decide whether it wants a terror group on its border in a safe but lawless area, or if it wants terrorists eliminated from its borders...
NEW - Turkey has added HTS to Jabhat al-Nusra’s terrorist designation.
This comes amid HTS’s continued refusal to agree to Ankara’s demand that it dissolve itself and re-merge under Turkish command, within the NLF.
Russia and Turkey agreed months ago that Turkey can try to dissolve HTS in Idlib and stop the war in that province, HTS(Al Qaeda) refuse all Turkish demands.
When SAA attacked Abu Duhur area in January, Turkey in agreement with Russia stopped all 'moderate' rebels that are under Turkish control from fighting SAA. Only HTS, uyghurs, Chechens and other extremists groups that are not under Turkish direct control fought SAA, and they lost really fast. Before that, there was that ISIS pocket, HTS bleed for 2 months in battles against ISIS, and rebels stood behind because of orders from Turkey.
So next meeting of 7. September in Iran. That is the date when Turkey and Russia will reach next understanding on Idlib, or they won't. If they do however, i expect fast advances by SAA on low ground fronts. Only harder front will be mountainous Latakia. But if SAA attacks on 2/3 fronts(Latakia, Aleppo, Hama) HTS will not have enough man to stop them, and that is if rebels stand behind on Turkish orders.
So let's wait for the outcome of that meeting.
ATLASCUB- Posts : 1154
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Well...well...
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/31/politics/us-syria-idlib-initial-targets/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2018-08-31T19%3A44%3A07&utm_medium=social&utm_term=image
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/31/politics/us-syria-idlib-initial-targets/index.html?utm_source=twCNNp&utm_content=2018-08-31T19%3A44%3A07&utm_medium=social&utm_term=image
US intelligence and military targeting experts have drawn up a preliminary list of Syrian chemical weapons facilities that could be struck if President Donald Trump were to order a new round of airstrikes in the country, multiple US officials tell CNN.
A decision to take action has not been made, but one administration official with direct knowledge of the current situation told CNN the military "could respond very quickly" if Syria launched a chemical weapons attack, and the initial targeting data assembled would give the Pentagon a head start if the President decides to take action.
d_taddei2- Posts : 3028
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Well firstly I can't see it happening Iran struggles to provide it's own forces with such equipment. And secondly if it does happen it will likely have support from Russia and I wouldn't be surprised if S-300 systems from Russia being sent via Iran and passed off as Iranian built systems. As for the aircraft they will likely be just overhauled F-5 and not the new upgraded Kowsar. Syrian air force has enough aircraft and with Russian air force to finish the job in syria. And once war is over and Syria starts to retire aircraft they won't be looking for half assed aircraft from Iran but likely Su-30, mig-29m2 or mig-35, possibly some su-24 and mi-35. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia ends up gifting their su-24 in syria to them.
S-300 is greatly needed by syria and they will likely get them from Russiaat some point
Iran is preparing to supply the Syrian Armed Forces with their new domestically-made warplane and S-300 missile system, a military source in Damascus told Al-Masdar News last night.
https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-to-supply-syria-with-new-warplane-and-domestic-made-s-300-report/
S-300 is greatly needed by syria and they will likely get them from Russiaat some point
Iran is preparing to supply the Syrian Armed Forces with their new domestically-made warplane and S-300 missile system, a military source in Damascus told Al-Masdar News last night.
https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-to-supply-syria-with-new-warplane-and-domestic-made-s-300-report/
ATLASCUB- Posts : 1154
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I don't see why not? The Russians are not in the business of donating aircraft in large quantities and cheap Iranian craft would come in handy to replentish Syrian stocks of old rust buckets like the Mig 21s, Su-22s, and Mig 23s. Iranians are not shackled like Russia with some balancing act diplomacy when it comes to Israel and the U.S.
For Iranians, equipping and arming the state next door to Israel is merely but a way to defend themselves by shifting the battlefields and attention closer to Israel's backyard. Putting pressure on their enemies, changing the calculus. Reinforcing their ally's capacity to defend itself is merely an extension of Iranian's self-defense. It's common sense and should be the right way to proceed.
The real question is whether Iran can bear the cost and whether it has the capacity to produce such equipment in significant quantities (as you said). The Israeli's will try to bomb the shipments during transit (or at their deployed locations). So it will be tricky to see how things play out in the future.
For Iranians, equipping and arming the state next door to Israel is merely but a way to defend themselves by shifting the battlefields and attention closer to Israel's backyard. Putting pressure on their enemies, changing the calculus. Reinforcing their ally's capacity to defend itself is merely an extension of Iranian's self-defense. It's common sense and should be the right way to proceed.
The real question is whether Iran can bear the cost and whether it has the capacity to produce such equipment in significant quantities (as you said). The Israeli's will try to bomb the shipments during transit (or at their deployed locations). So it will be tricky to see how things play out in the future.
d_taddei2- Posts : 3028
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ATLASCUB wrote:I don't see why not? The Russians are not in the business of donating aircraft in large quantities and cheap Iranian craft would come in handy to replentish Syrian stocks of old rust buckets like the Mig 21s, Su-22s, and Mig 23s. Iranians are not shackled like Russia with some balancing act diplomacy when it comes to Israel and the U.S.
For Iranians, equipping and arming the state next door to Israel is merely but a way to defend themselves by shifting the battlefields and attention closer to Israel's backyard. Putting pressure on their enemies, changing the calculus. Reinforcing their ally's capacity to defend itself is merely an extension of Iranian's self-defense. It's common sense and should be the right way to proceed.
The real question is whether Iran can bear the cost and whether it has the capacity to produce such equipment in significant quantities (as you said). The Israeli's will try to bomb the shipments during transit (or at their deployed locations). So it will be tricky to see how things play out in the future.
I wasnt expecting huge quantities of aircraft just what su-24 that Russia has in syria. Which is a drop in the ocean of what they have donated in arms vehicles ammo etc etc and spare parts for syrian aircraft.
Israel will target Iranian donated aircraft and S-300 isn't a magic air defence wand. But S-300 would have to be deployed first to act as a deterrence. But as for production of the aircraft I highly doubt it will happen. And syrian rust buckets as you put it might actually be in better condition than Iranian F-5. Russia has been supplying parts and expertise. While Iranian aircraft have been struggling with parts although they do make some parts themselves now but nobody actually really knows what in working condition. At best syria will just get overhauled F-5 but that would also require training of pilots so by the time that happens war will be over
So what we actually might see is aircraft being given to syria but actually in disguise it's Iranian supplied aircraft with Iranian pilots there way of getting involved without Israel wanting to actively seeking to shoot them down.
ATLASCUB- Posts : 1154
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Might? There is no substitute for a fresh airframe and fresh engines. Of the aircraft that I listed, with the exception of the Mig 29s in Syrian stock, F-5s are more than suitable and comparable aircraft. Obviously we're taking at face value thus far what the Iranians say about this aircraft and their capacity to manufacture it. We wouldn't be having this discussion if we didn't consider it at least plausible.
par far- Posts : 3496
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One thing is for sure, the SAA and Allies will have a lot of weapons and ammo. Thy are discovering a lot of weapons and ammo.
Here the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorists in the town of Jubata al-Khashab in the governorate of al-Quneitra left a lot of weapons and there was Israeli medicine (fuck you Israel).
https://southfront.org/syrian-army-discovers-weapons-depot-left-behind-by-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-in-al-quneitra-governorate-video/
Here the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorists in the town of Jubata al-Khashab in the governorate of al-Quneitra left a lot of weapons and there was Israeli medicine (fuck you Israel).
https://southfront.org/syrian-army-discovers-weapons-depot-left-behind-by-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-in-al-quneitra-governorate-video/
d_taddei2- Posts : 3028
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ATLASCUB wrote:Might? There is no substitute for a fresh airframe and fresh engines. Of the aircraft that I listed, with the exception of the Mig 29s in Syrian stock, F-5s are more than suitable and comparable aircraft. Obviously we're taking at face value thus far what the Iranians say about this aircraft and their capacity to manufacture it. We wouldn't be having this discussion if we didn't consider it at least plausible.
I read some while back that Iran uses F-5 airframes overhauls and upgrades mostly replacing parts with homegrown parts with minor upgrades so there not new airframes there old. But there is of course the training aspects of flying an aircraft totally alien to syria. I think with Russian support syria has enough and capable air force to finish the job. And after the war syria will/should be looking at replacing it's aircraft with something like mig-29m/35 and Su-30/35 and su-34. But these will have to be on some credit loan deal from Russia as syria won't have the cash