Syrian War: News #18

Isos wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/Syrian_SR/status/1042522656103383040

Video of a s-400 fire in syria during the attack.

Doesn't follow the launch profile of S-300/400..  It looks more like an S-125.

And exactly what would they be shooting at? That ain't an S-400 cause Russia would have also sent their jets into the sky.

And if it was S-400, the F-16 it would be aimed at would be as good as dead.

Also possible to be Tor missile as it's a short range and vertical launch. Most don't believe that to be S-400.

Seems feasible but the Turks wouldn't like the anti air part.

The US has supplied the Kurds in Northern Syria with advanced weapons, including air defense systems, Arab media reports said as the US army continues occupation of lands in the region. The Arabic-language al-Watan newspaper quoted informed Kurdish sources as saying on Wednesday that the US has provided the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with new and state-of-the-art weapons, including air defense systems.

They added that the US forces have told them that they will remain in Syria for an unlimited time and are, hence, reinforcing their military bases and positions on occupied lands in Northeastern Syria. The US-led coalition has recently reinvigorated its bases in regions occupied by the SDF in Syria.

An Arab media outlet reported last Wednesday that the US forces had started setting up two more military bases in Qamishli region in Hasaka province amid tensions between civilians and the Kurds. The Arabic-language al-Manar news website reported that the US-led coalition has resumed building two more military bases in the village of Jam’aya East of the town of Qamishli as well as areas West of the town. It further said that the US military has set up a base at the Eastern entrance of the town Qamishli and also established a permanent base in the small town of Himo at the Western entrance of the town.

FARS

https://en.muraselon.com/2018/09/us-kurds-air-defense-system/

There is a lot of speculation out there about the Iranians flying in their copy of an S-300 and the IAF destroying it and the plane. I think that the IAF only struck the unloaded cargo of the plane. In 7 years the IAF have not hit an actual Iranian aircraft at Damascus.

To back this up, I saw last week the Flightradar tracking of an Iranian B-747F landing there that day and a sat photo showing it parked in the normal place on one of the narrow parking areas. Then that night the attack leaving a big burn mark on the apron ahead of the 747. This was followed the following day by a Flightradar track of that same 747F heading home.

Does anyone have any idea if an S-300 would fit let alone could get up into a B-747F?


Nardeep Pujji
‏ @AWAKEALERT
1h1 hour ago

#BreakingNews
Russia imposed "NO FLY ZONE" for Israeli military aircraft around #Syria till Sep 26, 2018
Israeli military planes will be shot down if they violate Syrian airspace.
Unconfirmed : Iran transporting #S300 ADS systems to Syria in a Boeing 747
#NoFlyZone

As infuriating as this situation is, fact remains that it was Syrian missile that shot down Russian plane. No going around it. A lot of people seem to forget that detail.

If it were Israeli missile then it would be simplest thing in the world. Just fire away.

But since it wasn't they have to do things with more precision. And yes, that F-16 definitely used Il-20 as meat-shield. Still not enough for open military response but there definitely have to be consequences. No-fly zone and loose triggers for VKS are minimum.


----------------
----------------


Excellent analysis by Andrei Martyanov here, this guy knows his stuff. Posting part of it here but you guys should definitely read the whole thing:


Some Fast Thoughts On IL-20

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2018/09/some-fast-thoughts-on-il-20.html

............ Israel violated in this case not just an ethical norm by hiding behind IL-20, it violated much more—it flew it planes into the area which was specifically designated as "out of reach" for IAF. As former Israel's Service Nativ' Yakov Kedmi stated after the events, all this tragedy became a result of Israeli recklessness and unprofessionalism, he called this mistake by Israeli generals a doom-spelling one. Reaction of Israel following the events is telling—she went into the full damage control mode with Netanyahu urgently calling Vladimir Putin. He offered the Commander of Israeli Air Force to be immediately on his way to Moscow, all diplomatic, informational, government channels between Israel and Russia got immediately engaged. This was a very telling sign of a real panic and confusion on the Israeli side which also immediately offered condolences. This is not an act of war, as many would love it to be, some out of often justified hatred of Israel hoping for Russia to dispose of this "evil", others purely out of adrenalin rush in anticipation of TV picture of people killing each other.


But the issue of interaction between Russia and Syrian forces is real and it is not easily addressed for a number of purely military and cultural reasons. But some conclusions can already be made:


1. There will be no "annihilation" of Israel, nor will there be any shooting war between Russia and Jewish State as many would love and lust it to be;


2. There will, however, be some form of no-fly zone and as Vladimir Putin stated Russia will take “the steps that everyone will notice.” Obviously this important statement by the head of Russian State got drowned in the ocean of rage and speculations, and confusion I may add, but this has become a familiar pattern by now.


3. Issue of ROE and interaction—the most important one. Specialists must review protocols and tactical procedures. Engagement caveats must be strictly enforced.


4. Training of Syrian personnel and, obvious now, necessity, once advanced S-300s (PMU) are additionally delivered to Syria, to have Russian advisers full time in any Syrian Air Defense crew dealing with much more advanced technology than old S-200s.


In the end, this tragedy, should serve as a real serious lesson and, in a military sense a warning that one better stick to the agreements or things may spiral out of control very fast. Israel decided that it is allowed to break agreements. Israel should ask Turkey what happens when one does Russia wrong—Turkish Air Force knows it too well after shooting down Russian SU-24. It got grounded. Now Turkey is a situational ally of Iran and Russia in the region. As per larger geopolitical sense—just wait and see..........

--------------
--------------

Also, Syrian AA strategy has always been to fire everything they have and hope for best. It took them 30 years to take out one plane that way. Another one ain't due until 2040's. Epic incompetence.

So now it's known S200 radar don't have IFF. Russia appeasement to Israel allowing them to bomb Latakia and refuses S300 and MiG-29 M / M2 to SAA will only end up killing more and more Russian servicemen by accident in the future. Sad for Russian lives because of Putin.

Минобороны РФ: у сбившей Ил-20 сирийской ПВО не было российской системы "свой-чужой"

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/5585180

What does Israel ever do for Russia other than killing Russians? Putin needs to go, and ASAP.

https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/09/full-analysis-russian-disinfo-campaign-blames-israel-for-il-20-plane-downing-yet-exonerates-france/

Fort Russ wrote:Russia appears to be involved in an appropriate and strategically prudent disinformation campaign to avoid any further irreparable damage in Franco-Russian relations. FRN will analyze why it is most probable that France took down the Russian Il-20 military aircraft, and not the SAA air defense systems as first Israeli, and then Russian media have today begun to officially report.

It will be critical of course to establish the key necessities in making the case. Means, motive, and opportunity. Once these are established, we then proceed to establishing that this is the most probable case even as others had one, two, or even all three of these and this will be done in part by countering some of the nevertheless intelligent but imperfect reasoning now being printed regarding possible theories. In general, the pro-Russian media sphere is at this time ‘following up’ on the quite recent Russian official pronouncements that the SAA themselves accidentally shot down the Il-20, even while nominally blaming Israel and naming it ‘responsible’ for the incident.

What the Russians claim is that Israeli craft using the Il-20 for cover ‘confused’ the SAA system and that the SAA system hit the Russian Il-20. We will explain that while this is possible, it is unlikely, and in fact the least likely of any realistic scenarios given the tremendous preparation and planning that goes into these events.

Why France?
....

Interesting analysis. Definitely gives a new perspective.

Check my other post..

For me it looks pretty much an Ambush to a Russian spy plane.. by US,France and Israel..
There is no way an S-200 missile ,that Russia understand very well everything it needs to know, could hit
the most advanced plane of Russia in counter electronic warfare.. and even less an accident like Putin claimed..
The most likely thing that happened was an Ambush , using Americans hundreds of kamikazi minidrones ,armed with small explosives.. deployed by the Israel F-16s on the flight path of the Russian spy plane.. and the french warship helped Israel airforce and the drones to position in place..  The Russian military to not damage relations with France and have the option to plan for retaliation against US , only blamed Israel for the incident.. But is more likely that
all 3 participated in the incident..  And Macron visit to Russia could have been all a show , to make Putin believe France was moving towards Russian orbit.. and to get impunity for bombing Syria..   Whatever it happened..
the Russian spy plane was ambushed , make no doubts about this.. and the Russian military is saying the missile was an S-200s.while saying Israel caused the problem. only to have the option to plan for a future retaliation..
Whatever is the case.. Russia military blamed everything on Israel.. and their mood shows ,they well aware
it was a well planned ,well organized attack.. and the only questions left is the Participation of France and US..
and if the spy place was attacked by minidrones..  Putin tolerance to NATO attacks could have encouraged this
criminal operations.. Russia have been attacked and the Russian military needs to either respond now or create a fly at your own risk large zone.. near Syria and lebanon coast , saying that Russia will reserve the right to shut down any hostile planes ,that they believe threatens the security of their airforce ,their army and military bases.
A limited no fly zone is the less thing Russia can do.. and force NATO And ISrael to fire from very far distances and with the risk of Russia retaliating at their planes... the next weeks is going to be very Interesting in Syria.. Does that believe Russia "will do nothing" will be surprised.. when planes start to fall from NATO and Israel..  The Russian government understand the lives of many more serviceman will be at risk ,if they do continue with same tolerance of NATO/Israel bombing Syria. So i predict things will dramatically change.. in Syria in the future..
and a major Risk of military fights between Russia vs Israel and NATO very possible.. The investigation of the plane shutdown ,removing its parts ,will clearly show what hit the plane.. my bet it was attacked by mini drones armed with explosives. Something US media have been advertising a lot ,recently.. Russia also needs to end the policy of allowing planes to fly alone.. and send escorts to any plane.. Is not longer about Syria now.. is Russia now the target.. they only bombing Syria (close to Russian bases) to humiliate Russia. with the aim to damage Putin image and provoke civil unrest in Russia demanding Putin resignation.. and with luck force Russia out of Syria..

Inconsistencies in the information about the downed IL-20
I don't think the IL-20 can defend against S-200. It could simply be that it was there in the wrong place at the wrong time. We may never know the full story. With the MH-17, it took 4 years to find the truth.

Tsavo Lion wrote:Inconsistencies in the information about the downed IL-20
I don't think the IL-20 can defend against S-200. It could simply be that it was there in the wrong place at the wrong time. We may never know the full story. With the MH-17, it took 4 years to find the truth.

You are wrong..
The first thing Russia test their electronic warfare.. that their Russian spy have is their own Missiles..
Russia understand very well , how to counter an S-200. even Israel knows.. the success rate of S-200s versus
F-16s is very low.. and Russia spy plane have far more powerful jammers and electronic warfare ,than Israel F-16s.
So even if Israel planes hide behind the Russian spy plane.. the missiles will be jammed.. away from the spy plane.. Syria military even hinted they did not attacked any plane.. and only fired at the incoming missiles.
So is more likely the Russian military ,created the story of the S-200 ,a small disinformation only to earn time ,
and plan for a possible retaliation against Israel or NATO for the shotdown of the Russian spy plane.. A very well coordinated Ambush.. and they could do this knowing Putin very passive and tolerant policy in Syria , allowing even Israel to bomb Latakkia and Tartus near Russian  military bases with impunity. This is outrageous wrong..
and disrespecting for Russian military.. So the military created the story of the "S-200 hit it",,
only to have time for planning a response.. Now their plane was shutdown and Russia will have justification for increasing the security on Syria ,including giving S-300s to Syrian army.. and closing an entire zone from Lebanon Syria coast to the sea.. to force NATO and Israel fire missiles from far longer distances ..making them easier to intercept..

Ilyushin IL-20 Coot A is Elint reconnaissance aircraft
http://www.combataircraft.com/en/Military-Aircraft/Ilyushin/IL-20-Coot-A/

Only ELINT gear is carried: https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.asp?aircraft_id=2024

And possibly for Command & Control

It doesn't have the means to actively suppress S-200 systems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_(missile)#Main_radar_system

Even if it had, it wouldn't be using them at the same time as its ELINT task would/could be affected, & they didn't expect to be fired upon by the Syrians.
Syrian AD would not recognize the a Russian "friend-foe" system
The IL-20s had been there for a while already, & the Syrians avoided shooting 1 down until now as they knew its radar signature & flight patterns very well. It could also be that some1 fooled their radars into displaying a smaller target.

Interesting graphic


Nardeep Pujji
‏ @AWAKEALERT
3h3 hours ago
Replying to @JZarif

US gathers terrorists from 96 countries and trains them, arms them with lethal weapons, to fight against Syrian army - and calls them freedom fighters
This was neither any revolution nor an uprising, it was Clearly a proxy war by the deep state.

In 1 Russian video I saw it's claimed that the Russian S-400 shot it down while aiming at those Israeli F-16s, but they don't want to admit it. I doubt it- not with the IL-20 still in the area.

Isos wrote:https://sputniknews.com/world/201809211068224965-lavrov-idlib-deal/

Russian-turkish deal just an interim step according to Lavrov.

"Nusra Front terrorists should leave this demilitarized zone by mid-October; all heavy weaponry should be withdrawn from there," Lavrov told a press conference.

Definitely it is, current status quo can not continue forever.

But, for both sides, it was the matter whether transformation will require bloody and messy battles or sane settling approach.

And one would easily notice in the same speech that Lavrov pointed out the fact US supported forces - meaning seperatist kurds - pose greater threat for integrity of Syria.

Although some kurdish lovers here claim they can serve Russia some day, appearently Russian statehood thinks other way around.

Just think of it, Turkey is already a bordering country. Turkish army presence 20 km back or forth does not change things much for Russia - but it does for Turkey - meanwhile US building an entire military complex 1000s of kms away from their home. It is difference. Lot of difference...

That is why Russo Turkish deals are way less painful than Russo - some other Western deals.

"Russia Is Going To Start Production Of Construction Materials And Cars In Syria."

On September 21st, the Russian Minister of Trade and Industry Denis Manturov announced the country’s plans to start production of construction materials and cars in Syria, which are to be exported to third countries.

As cited by TASS during a press conference following the meeting of the Russian-Chinese subcommittee for cooperation in the field of industry, Manturov said that the countries are currently discussing the option of Russian production of construction materials and cars in Syria.

“We have been cooperating with Syria for a long time to supply road construction equipment, construction materials, and to organize the production there,” Manturov said.

The Trade and Industry Minister did not specify what companies will be established, who will be their key participants, under what brand will the products be produced. He did, however, confirm that it will be within the transport and energy construction industry, as well as the automotive one.

“What will come first, in view of restoration will be construction materials. The organization of production there is for the production of construction materials, which are to be used in the local market,” according to Manturov, as cited by RIA Novosti.

Manturov also expressed hope that the construction materials may be delivered beyond the Syrian market, to other countries in the region.

“If these products are to be competitive, they will have to be delivered to neighboring countries from the Syrian establishment,” the Minister said.

Russia is already looking into building its own production bases in Syria. In February, the vice-president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Vladimir Padalko, claimed that Russian companies are discussing projects for the construction of cars and agricultural machinery in Syria.

He also specified that large automotive manufacturers will most likely not enter the country, their dealers will. He also announced that one Russian company has initiated negotiations for the construction of more than a dozen establishments for the production of reinforced concrete products.

Belarus has also announced plans to establish a car manufacturing base in Syria. Mid-January 2018, representatives of the Belarusian company MAZ held the relevant negotiations in the Syrian Ministry of Industry.

In addition to announcement regarding Syria, Manturov also spoke about the development of industry in Russia and China. According to him, Russian and Chinese industrial progress and cooperation draw dissatisfaction from the Western Countries.

“You can see for yourself the difficult geopolitical and economic situation in which our countries are. It is chiefly due to the fact that we produce large volumes of competitive products – it concerns iron and steel industry and nonferrous industry, in particular aluminum,” Manturov said at the press conference.

“The stronger the Chinese and Russian industries become, the more dissatisfaction it draws from our Western colleagues, in particular the US,” he stated.

“However, it only motivates us all the more to cooperate in the areas we discussed today. These are, in particular, metallurgy industry, aluminum, radio-electronic industry, pharmaceutics, automobile industry and new groundbreaking spheres,” Manturov reported.

“Pressure, sanctions and certain bans by the Western countries and the US push us once again toward cooperation and a search for joint solutions and products,” the Russian industry and trade minister concluded.

The announcement of industrial establishments in Syria follows the announcement of Russia’s Export Development Plan on September 12th. Denis Manturov said that the plan envisioned the launching of 4 industrial zones abroad, all of which are to be operational within 6 years.

This is in addition to the one already functioning in Egypt.

“We are developing a program for the creation of industrial zones abroad. We should establish at least four zones in six years. We have one in Egypt, and we must form them in Latin America too – it could be Mexico, Uruguay or Paraguay, in Southeast Asia – Vietnam, Malaysia or Indonesia – and in eastern or western Africa. We will analyze where it will be advantageous,” the minister said.


https://southfront.org/russia-is-going-to-start-production-of-construction-materials-and-cars-in-syria/

The latest coming out of Israel and officials' meeting in Moscow.

Israel: Russia accepts our take on Syrian downing of plane, coordination goes on

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1043133234559762432

"Israeli report into the downing a Russian [Il-20] on Monday [September 17], runs some 40 pages in English and Russian and shows that Syrian anti-aircraft batteries fired dozens of barrages indiscriminately for 40 minutes after the initial Israeli attack."

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1043093147696254976

Russia’s Long-Term Interests Place Turkey Higher Than Syria
Syria is being partitioned; Assad will have to live with it or die!




The party is almost over for Israel & Uighur in Syria!
https://jamestown.org/program/the-turkistan-islamic-party-in-double-exile-geographic-and-organizational-divisions-in-uighur-jihadism/

AbdulhamidtheSecond wrote:

Isos wrote:https://sputniknews.com/world/201809211068224965-lavrov-idlib-deal/

Russian-turkish deal just an interim step according to Lavrov.

"Nusra Front terrorists should leave this demilitarized zone by mid-October; all heavy weaponry should be withdrawn from there," Lavrov told a press conference.

Definitely it is, current status quo can not continue forever.

But, for both sides, it was the matter whether transformation will require bloody and messy battles or sane settling approach.

And one would easily notice in the same speech that Lavrov pointed out the fact US supported forces - meaning seperatist kurds - pose greater threat for integrity of Syria.

Although some kurdish lovers here claim they can serve Russia some day, appearently Russian statehood thinks other way around.

Just think of it, Turkey is already a bordering country. Turkish army presence 20 km back or forth does not change things much for Russia - but it does for Turkey - meanwhile US building an entire military complex 1000s of kms away from their home. It is difference. Lot of difference...

That is why Russo Turkish deals are way less painful than Russo - some other Western deals.

Kurds never attack Russia... Russia is respected largely by the Kurds .. in the other hand.. Erdogan backed Rebels
attacks Russia.. and target Russian soldiers.. the Turkomans ,the FSA.. they attack Russia military. So from Russia point of view is much better to deal with Kurds that they respect Russia.. than to have Erdogan terrorist.. that attacks Russia.. So for Russia will be better if all Foreigners ,and religious sunni radicals ,that fight Russia and Syria and americans provide weapons  to abandon Syria.  Kurds also fight ISIS and Alqaeda... Erdogan don't do that..
notice how Erdogan did not wanted Russia to bomb their lovely assets of alnusra en Idlib.. Finally in case you didn't notices.. the kurds have no interest in removing Assad from power.. they only want their independence..the kurds actually have helped many times to fight the terrorist that ALL NATO major powers and israel support. So the major problem is that Syria ,that is a secular nation , don't want on their country mercenaries ,armed with weapons ,that works for Turkey or US ,UK france or Israel.. or Saudi Arabia.. is common sense. no nation in the world ,will accept foreign mercenaries ,armed by another nation to over run your country.. neither will accept a foreign army invasion..against their will.. regardless of the motives..