Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #3

par far wrote:

ultron wrote:What's the difference between SAA and the Iranian army? Corruption. Cowardice. Incompetence. Iran is a religious Shia country. What is Syria? Corrupt and secular. That's the difference. You don't see insurgents in Iran. In Syria there are even insurgents in the capital city.

The Iranian army is not corrupted and they are not cowards, if that were true, they would not exist. Assad trusted the west and that was his big mistake. And by the way, why are you such a fucking troll asshole?

Dima wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

iraqidabab wrote:Is it true Russia might establish itself in that Kuwaires or something airbase in Aleppo when the siege is broken

No need for that from what I can tell.

Coastline and Lebanese border are prime realestate in Syria and Russia already has those in the bag. Rest of it is mostly desert and even helicopters can make round trip around the country from Latakia with extra fuel tanks, to say nothing about jets.

I think they will, but not sure.
I personally feel they should as it will help base the attack choppers in the base and the units operating out of the base will be able to give good close air-support for the advancing units. Operating out of Latakia for ops in the east is not practical due to the time involved. What the advancing units around Aleppo and east needs are close air-support on short notice and it can only come from units based in Kuweries.

situation map, 25 Oct 2014, around Aleppo and Kuweries posted earlier in the thread.
https://www.russiadefence.net/viewimage.forum?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FCSKq0qGUEAAmmZ7.jpg%3Alarge

I'm sure once air-base is linked and areas secured for attack choppers to be based, we'll see a good chunk of territory changing hands around Aleppo and east and Raqqa.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:
Syria is much poorer than both Israel and the Gulf nations... It does not have $5 bilion of money to spend on military equipment each year... and Russia is not rich enough to send dozens of tanks for free like USSR did. Well, if China wanted to, it could pay for new military equipment for Syria  - but would they be willing to?

ultron wrote:Helicopters should be operating just behind the front line supporting army advance. In the US helicopters are part of army, not part of air force. Helicopters do not need to operate from an air base and should not do so.

Any western leader who launched a military operation abroad in the middle of a stinging recession would have a hard time convincing the nation to pay for it. But as the Russian government sent its draft budget for 2016 to the Duma on Friday night, nobody even mentioned President Vladimir Putin’s bombing campaign in Syria.

Low oil prices, a weak rouble and western sanctions have caused the country’s economy to contract by 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year and, as Russia relies on oil-related revenues for half of its budget, this has forced some belt-tightening.

Pensions, for example, will increase by no more than 4 per cent next year, according to the budget — far short of the inflation rate of 12 per cent.

Despite all this, Moscow can easily afford its military operation in Syria — both because it is cheap compared with similar endeavours by the US, and because 17 consecutive years of funding increases and an opaque budget have helped to fill the military’s pockets, say defence experts.

Even if Russia continued its air strikes at the current level for a full year, it would use less than 3 per cent of the funds budgeted for national defence in 2016, according to IHS Jane’s, the defence research group, and Financial Times calculations.

“We believe a campaign like the one they are running there right now would cost between $2.3m and $4m a day,” said Ben Moores, senior analyst at IHS Jane’s.

A sum of 3.15tn roubles ($51bn) has been earmarked for national defence expenditure next year. The government reversed some earlier planned defence budget cuts this week, so the 2016 draft defence budget marks a 0.8 per cent increase over this year, but both as a share of total public spending and of gross domestic product, it is decreasing slightly for the first time in years.

However, more than a quarter of this year’s budget was earmarked for military expenditure, and vast parts of the military budget are secret.

This absence of public oversight and of a visible financial burden allows Mr Putin to continue or even expand his high-profile geopolitical challenge to the west.

On the back of constant state television coverage, which describes Russia’s three-week bombing campaign in Syria as a fight against evil, the independent pollster Levada found that support for Moscow’s military action had soared from a mere 14 per cent in late September to more than 70 per cent.

Mr Putin’s support ratings had hit an all-time high of 89.9 per cent, state-backed pollster VTsIOM said this week.

Mr Moores’ calculation of the war cost is based on the assumption that Russia has 36 fighter aircraft and 20 helicopters at its Latakia air base which fly an average of 30 sorties a day and drop five bombs per sortie. In addition, he takes into account the presence of at least 1,500 soldiers deployed, plus naval support.
Russia cost of war

According to IHS data, Russia could sustain its troops in Syria at little more than one-tenth of the roughly $4m it costs the US per day to support the same number of soldiers in Afghanistan.

This is because Russia can save fuel by sustaining the troops by sea, its soldiers’ salaries, food and medical bills are lower, and the military personnel are believed to be concentrated at base rather than spread out in combat.

According to recent figures released by the Pentagon, the US has so far spent roughly $4bn in its 14-month-old campaign against Isis Islamist fighters — roughly $10m a day.

Other foreign and Russian defence experts said it was impossible to calculate the cost of the Syria intervention accurately, due to Moscow’s opaque defence budget. But they agree that it is likely to be minuscule compared with total military spending.

“This [Syria campaign spending] is going to just disappear in the huge black hole that is our country’s military budget,” said Vasily Zatsepin, an expert on military economics at the independent Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. “The transparency of our defence spending is decreasing from one defence minister to the next.”

Russia’s national defence budget accounts for less than half of the country’s total military expenditure, which is expected to hit 5.42 per cent of GDP this year, according to Julian Cooper, an expert on Russian military spending at the University of Birmingham. On top of that, the military spends each year an amount equivalent to 60 per cent of the national defence budget on arms procurement, maintenance and development.

A senior government official said the cost of the Syria operation was expected to be covered by reducing the number and scale of domestic military exercises. The ministry of defence does not disclose details on the cost of such exercises.

IHS’s calculations exclude the launch of 26 cruise missiles against Syrian insurgents on October 7, Mr Putin’s birthday. A Russian official said the use of the missiles was “very expensive”, but defence experts noted that a smaller number would have been launched as part of an exercise anyway.

Russian military experts said several other military expenditure categories also offered reserves that could be used for the Syria war.
In depth

Western policymakers and strategists are trying to figure out what Vladimir Putin’s military goals are in Syria — and if he intends to help the Assad regime regain territory lost to opposition forces

“Even though the Russian armed forces officially have 1m personnel, everybody knows that the real number is closer to 850,000, but the ministry of finance still provides funds for 1m,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Russian defence think-tank.

Funds claimed by the ministry of defence for expenditure such as bonuses for soldiers could be channelled into the war effort, he said.

Several defence analysts added that an expected slowdown in procurements under a multi-year armaments programme would free up money for the Syria campaign. Moreover, they expect that Moscow is lowering the cost of the war by using expired ammunition stocks and making Syria foot at least part of the Russian air force’s fuel bill.

ultron wrote:

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:
Syria is much poorer than both Israel and the Gulf nations... It does not have $5 bilion of money to spend on military equipment each year... and Russia is not rich enough to send dozens of tanks for free like USSR did. Well, if China wanted to, it could pay for new military equipment for Syria  - but would they be willing to?

Well, gee. Israel don't have oil and is a fraction the size of Syria. If Russia really supports Syria the way the US supports Israel, then Syrian soldiers would have AK-74s by now as their main service rifle. Russia hardly supports Syria with equipment.

ultron wrote:

par far wrote:
The Iranian army is not corrupted and they are not cowards, if that were true, they would not exist. Assad trusted the west and that was his big mistake. And by the way, why are you such a fucking troll asshole?

Assad made the mistake of not modernizing Syria's military. While Israel has the latest F-15s and F-16s and Merkava 4s and Tavors, Syrian soldiers drive T-55s, fly MiG-21s, shoot AK-47s.

ultron wrote:

par far wrote:
The Iranian army is not corrupted and they are not cowards, if that were true, they would not exist. Assad trusted the west and that was his big mistake. And by the way, why are you such a fucking troll asshole?

Assad made the mistake of not modernizing Syria's military. While Israel has the latest F-15s and F-16s and Merkava 4s and Tavors, Syrian soldiers drive T-55s, fly MiG-21s, shoot AK-47s.

Solncepek wrote:
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"PMC Wagner" - one of the most secret units fighting in the LC and the DNI. Commanders and fighters never give interviews, photograph with Ukrainian trophies do not appear in social networks, they are not mentioned in the official release of the power of self-proclaimed republics.

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According to Russian bloggers, the number of units of the Russian citizens who are fighting on the side of Assad, not more than two thousand people, which can not seriously affect the course of the ground operation.

PapaDragon wrote:

Solncepek wrote:
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"PMC Wagner" - one of the most secret units fighting in the LC and the DNI. Commanders and fighters never give interviews, photograph with Ukrainian trophies do not appear in social networks, they are not mentioned in the official release of the power of self-proclaimed republics.

..............................................

According to Russian bloggers, the number of units of the Russian citizens who are fighting on the side of Assad, not more than two thousand people, which can not seriously affect the course of the ground operation.

And this is how we know that your entire post is steaming pile of horseshit.

And again, no sources... do you and Monarchist visit same websites?

Solncepek wrote:Analysis from a russian observer:

Despite the efficient operation of Russian airforces, offensive Syrian army on rebel positions is very sluggish. It almost goes flat. Until now, there was not one captured a major city, but as a rule of the air allows for the proper organization of ground operations to achieve success on the ground.

The Syrian army has taken a few small settlements, villages actually. In the north of Latakia Syrian troops captured three settlements, and a few on the southern outskirts of Salma. Continue the offensive on Aleppo Idlib. Go fighting against militants in the neighborhoods and Dzhobar Haraszti Eastern Guta district, a suburb of Damascus.

The rate of advance of the Syrian army in recent days has slowed significantly. This is due primarily to the fact that the Syrians are moving in several directions at once operational, are not trying to surround one or another group of rebels. Is slow ousting militants in order to restore the transport connectivity of the government-controlled territory and dislodge militants from Damascus.

Since the Second World War, the only effective means of capturing large cities are assault groups (SH). They include scouts, sappers, snipers, signalers and compact infantry units. The assault group supported by tanks, but the main striking force of the SH - artillery large and super-large caliber.

During the storming of Berlin by Soviet troops played a major role divisions especially large caliber artillery from artkorpusov breakthrough - 203 mm and 305 mm howitzer. With their help destroyed centers of resistance in buildings that could not be destroyed by any tanks or 152 mm howitzer.

The Syrian army artillery so no. Her arms are 122-mm self-propelled guns, "carnation", 152-mm self-propelled guns, "Acacia", 122 mm howitzer D-30 and M-30, a large number of 130-mm guns M-46 152 mm howitzer D-20 and ML-20. The entire park of artillery - of Soviet production.

Given the fact that in the suburbs of Damascus, the building is not so strong as in Berlin of the Third Reich, the Syrians would, in my opinion, to use guns M-46, which have several hundred (700-800), as part of the assault teams. But, apparently, the army of the government of Syria is not the necessary experience and ability and desire to create such SH.

But this means that the set before the start of a ground operation against terrorists task will not be performed. Frontal attack on major cities such as Aleppo, the forces of infantry, supported by tanks, even, will only lead to great losses of troops and armored vehicles.

It is increasingly clear that the Russian air group in Syria needs to be strengthened. Since the airfield in Latakia can not take more than 50 strike aircraft will probably have to negotiate with the Iranians about the use of our planes of their airfields. Which, incidentally, will allow to put air strikes on the positions of the terrorists not only in Syria.

Until now, Iranian participation units in operations in Syria is very limited. In the fighting, together with the Syrian army is involved, apparently, only special unit "Al Quds", the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Since Iran is certainly too afraid to irritate the US, which may renew those or other sanctions against it, then the negotiations for Russian aircraft to be based on Iranian airfields and involvement of Iranian forces in ground operations are being questioned.

Russian media have reported on the participation of mercenaries from Russia to the fighting on the side of the Syrian government. Ostensibly a call for volunteers willing to fight for a good reward in Syria held a private military company known as "PMC Wagner."

The publication «Fontanka.ru» has published an interview with the managers of the alleged PMC, in which he said: "Full fighters private military company does not advertise here. She's not in reference books and registers. Among devoted she is known as "PMC Wagner." Until recently, the main force of this formation took part in the armed conflict in the breakaway Luhansk People's Republic, now there is a relocation to Syria.

"PMC Wagner" - one of the most secret units fighting in the LC and the DNI. Commanders and fighters never give interviews, photograph with Ukrainian trophies do not appear in social networks, they are not mentioned in the official release of the power of self-proclaimed republics.

The core of the future "PMC Wagner" was formed in the same place where the men went today - on the territory of the Syrian Republic. In autumn 2013 Russian managers private military company Moran Security Group, Vadim Gusev and Yevgeny Sidorov, formed a band of 267 "contractors" for the "protection of deposits and pipelines" in a belligerent country.

After a month of training camp under the protection of Latakia instead rigs "Slavic body" got involved in combat engagement with parts of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (LIH - banned organization in Russia), and after being wounded six of his fighters retreated. "

According to Russian bloggers, the number of units of the Russian citizens who are fighting on the side of Assad, not more than two thousand people, which can not seriously affect the course of the ground operation.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How long will the war last with Russian airstrikes? In Libya it took 8 months of non-stop bombing with 7000+ airstrikes and hundreds of cruise missiles fired just to bring down a 40,000 strong army that received almost no support from outside... and with thousands of airstrikes the total death toll of the Libyan army is estimated at max. 3200 dead.

In Syria you have a force that numbers between 75,000-100,000 fighters that constantly receives new equipment and new men... since there is no shortage of fools willing to die for imaginary virgins in heaven, neither among Syrian Sunnis, nor outside of Syria. Rebel training camps shell out several thousand new recruits every month.

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:How long will the war last with Russian airstrikes? In Libya it took 8 months of non-stop bombing with 7000+ airstrikes and hundreds of cruise missiles fired just to bring down a 40,000 strong army that received almost no support from outside... and with thousands of airstrikes the total death toll of the Libyan army is estimated at max. 3200 dead.

In Syria you have a force that numbers between 75,000-100,000 fighters that constantly receives new equipment and new men... since there is no shortage of fools willing to die for imaginary virgins in heaven, neither among Syrian Sunnis, nor outside of Syria. Rebel training camps shell out several thousand new recruits every month.

The time for discussion about bearded terrorists has irreversibly passed by – now everybody is talking about Russian pilots. And rather than watching propagandistic videos depicting ISIL’s black flags everybody now is fixing their eyes on clips featuring Russian airstrikes against terrorists’ positions in Syria. Public opinion is a volatile substance. And now it’s for new heroes. It’s the thing that was finally noticed in Washington.

What is more is that unrest across the ocean was caused not only by the growing might of Russian arms and servicemen, but by the real efficiency of the Russian army.

Ben Hodges, the commander of United States Army forces in Europe, has conjured up common fears that trouble people in the West, saying that he was shocked by Moscow’s ability to deploy their army in the Middle East region in a very short period of time. He was perplexed by this revelation, Soloviev notes.

But if the military is always sparing in the expression of their emotions, the media is not, the publicist pointed out. For instance, an Italian journalist has issued an article entitled “Russians are too strong.” Putting it short, the author has claimed that “bursts of Russian bombs in Syria had hit ordinary Americans with blast waves,” referring to nervous response of launching of Russia’s operation among ordinary Americans. It’s a kind of “psychological bomb,” Soloviev stressed.

At this point it suddenly appears that American soldiers are no longer a symbol of standoff with “joint powers of evil,” the author continued. And Russian troops have rapidly turned from potential aggressors to fighters against radicals and terrorists. No one uses “little green men” term (referring to Russian troops) to scare kids anymore, because all the kids are using them as a role model now, Soloviev believes.

However, the loss of “stars-and-stripes prestige,” according to Soloviev, is not the worst thing of all. Americans are more alarmed not with the decreasing of their popularity itself, but with the fact that had overlooked this process. Washington has joined a game and lost it.

“Americans were watching the Kremlin unwinkingly, while the principal tick was performed in the other place. What is more important is that the US has overlooked the resurrection of a superpower,” he concluded.

ultron wrote:Russian aircraft reportedly having problem with Syria's climate.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/10/25/russia-vladimir-putin-ash-carter-syria/74586002/