Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #8

Seems premature BTW, SAA still hasn't captured Raqqa. The only way to really justify this move is that the Iraqi PM gave the Russians the go ahead with conducting an air campaign over Iraqi territory (especially now that ISIS loving Barzani is conducting a referendum), because it will allow Russia to kill 2 birds with one stone: destroy ISIS/JAN in Iraq, and destroy them on Syria's far-eastern front.

What the actual f**k??

Putin is going to look an absolute dick when the Turks take the next bombing on turkey as a pretext to invade Syria if this is true.

Russia has achieved a lot in this time, but Putin seems ready to throw it all away if he withdraws from Syria.

This whole Syria ceasefire business has had the same feeling of Minsk about it from the start.

Not gonna join the 'Putin slil' brigade, but Putin pussied out, Putin messed up, maybe.

Putin described the Syrian mission as 'generally accomplished'.

Im not sure I can agree with that statement at all.

Putin always seem to capitulate at the last moment even when he's winning. In Ukraine, and now in Syria.

Rodinazombie wrote:What the actual f**k??

Putin is going to look an absolute dick when the Turks take the next bombing on turkey as a pretext to invade Syria if this is true.

Russia has achieved a lot in this time, but Putin seems ready to throw it all away if he withdraws from Syria.

This whole Syria ceasefire business has had the same feeling of Minsk about it from the start.

Not gonna join the 'Putin slil' brigade, but Putin pussied out, Putin messed up, maybe.

Yeah the Minsk treaties were abject failures, let's hope by 'withdraw' they mean switching to the Iraqi front, which will allow Shia forces (which were conveniently being blocked by NATO) to have a open corridor to support the SAA in it's far-eastern Syria.

Militarov wrote:

Godric wrote:

Militarov wrote:Yeah, confirmed, Russians are to start their retreat tomorrow.

was on all news channels here ... it didn't say all the forces were leaving

Judging by RT and Sputnik "bulk" of forces will retreat. However they will "keep presence" in Tartus and Hmeymim. Judging from what i see the full scale operations are done.

They weren't doing that much after ceasefire compared to before. ISIS and JAN were still getting fragged 24/7 but it took lot less planes.

They were very clear that military installations in Syria will remain and will be protected. So that takes care of old Soviet mid-east presence problem.

Government now controls most HQ populated areas and entire coastline. Rest is desert. SAA is in much better shape. "Moderates" are cut off.

My guess is that bulk of Su-25 and Su-25s will withdraw. Flanker series will remain on site with S-300/400 in case turks and saudis go full retard.

There will be more than enough to cover SAA now that most of "moderates" have been whipped into ceasefire.

So folks please refrain from going full FlagshipHaushofer.

A bit more detail. My highlight, as yet undefined. Turkey's response will be the most interesting.

On Monday, President Putin indicated that the Kremlin will start withdrawing its main forces in Syria, saying that the military has largely achieved its objectives.

"I think that the task that was assigned to the Ministry of Defense and the armed forces as a whole has achieved its goal, and so I order the defense minister to start tomorrow withdrawing the main part of our military factions from the Syrian Arab Republic," President Putin said during a meeting with the Russian Defense and Foreign Ministries, according to RIA Novosti.

The withdrawal will begin on Tuesday. "With the participation of the Russian military…the Syrian armed forces and patriotic Syrian forces have been able to achieve a fundamental turnaround in the fight against international terrorism and have taken the initiative in almost all respects," the Russian president said.

"There has been a significant turning point in the fight against terrorism," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said.

Putin expressed hope that this decision will encourage all parties involved in the Syrian conflict to pursue a peaceful resolution.

"I ask the ministry of foreign affairs to intensify the participation of the Russian Federation in the organization of the peace process towards a solution to the Syrian crisis," Putin said.

Moscow will, however, maintain a military presence in Syria, and a deadline for complete withdrawal has not yet been announced. Putin also indicated that Russian forces will remain at the port of Tartus and Hmeymim airbase in Latakia. "Our bases of operations — our naval base in Tartus and our air base at Hmeymim — will operate as usual. They should be protected from land, sea, and air," Putin said. "That part of our military group has traditionally been in Syria over the course of many years, and today will have to perform a very important function in monitoring the ceasefire and creating conditions for the peace process."

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russia has informed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad of the decision. A statement from Assad's office stresses that the Kremlin has nonetheless pledged to continue its support for Syria in "confronting terrorism."

Assad also recognized the "professionalism, courage and heroism" of Russian Army soldiers and officers and thanked Moscow for its extensive help in fighting terrorism and in providing humanitarian relief and assistance to the civilian population of Syria.

During the phone call, both Assad and Putin agreed that the ceasefire has led to significant reduction in bloodshed, and the humanitarian situation has improved. "The sides expressed shared opinion that the implementation of the ceasefire in Syria has helped to sharply reduce the bloodshed and to improve the humanitarian situation in the country," the Kremlin press service said in a statement.

Assad also expressed hope that peace talks in Geneva will lead to concrete results, and stressed the need for a political process in Syria.

Earlier on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow's anti-terrorist air campaign created the conditions for political process on Syrian reconciliation.

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160314/1036274550/putin-orders-syria-withdrawal.html#ixzz42uBjk8Cy

magnumcromagnon wrote:Seems premature BTW, SAA still hasn't captured Raqqa. The only way to really justify this move is that the Iraqi PM gave the Russians the go ahead with conducting an air campaign over Iraqi territory (especially now that ISIS loving Barzani is conducting a referendum), because it will allow Russia to kill 2 birds with one stone: destroy ISIS/JAN in Iraq, and destroy them on Syria's far-eastern front.

Does not mean that they won't. Raqqa and Palmyra require lot less birds than entire Syria. And we all saw TOS, Smerch and all that other stuff SAA has now.

This might also mean that something big could be cooking in Ukropistan and they want to keep multitasking to a minimum.

And I am pretty sure that by now they advertised their entire arms catalog for this season.

Twitter so take it with salt:

https://twitter.com/EjmAlrai/status/709440665759916032

I just learned: #Russia S-400 will stay in #Syria and Tartous Naval base will continue been developed and expanded.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Putin just ordered the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria. The withdrawal will start tomorrow.

WHAT THE FUCK?!
I'm speechless

In case some people have not noticed, there is a ceasefire and serious negotiations going on. The Russian jets have not been bombing much last couple of weeks. No need to keep some of the jets and troops in Syria. If needed, they can be sent back.
Don't listen to the trolls, drama queens and thread polluters. Here are the facts:

Russia keeps its naval base in Tartous
Russia keeps its Hmeyem airbase in Latakia
Assad will not step down (this red line maw made clear at the negotiations)
The moderate terrorists are militarily and politically beaten and largely neutralized. They will be incorporated in the peace process
ISIS is confined into the desert and will be crushed by the SAA in Raqqa and the Iraqis in Iraq over time
Turkey is in doldrums, that country is now an unsafe place. Some areas of that country are a war zone
The SAA is rejuvenated and envigorated. Morale is much better now. They can handle the various die-hard terrorists on their own with little help from the RuAF

With Russia's objectives largely achieved, why not score a diplomatic point by announcing a partial withdrawal? Even a BBC commentator has just mentioned that it is a clever diplomatic tactic by Putin.

They can withdraw half or two third of their troops and assets without any negative consequences. Of course, they can bring them all back in an instant if the need arises.

Maybe this retreat will be just troops rotation. I don't see any logic to send new troops to Syria just for a few days.

Why the angry words and general despondency? We currently have no idea what this actually means given that major elements of the Russian contingent appear to be remaining.

Once you deduct the port and airfield and their occupants and defences there does not appear to be large numbers left, some tube and barrel artillery and helicopters perhaps.

It is likely that any units sent home will leave non secret stuff behind them.

To me the timing makes it look more than anything else like a serious diplomatic move to unsettle and alter the ground rules in Geneva. We should not underestimate Russia's diplomatic prowess. Assad seems to be OK with it which should tell us something.

It might embolden Turkey to do something stupid, which could be pretty fatal for some.

Oh, ye of little faith. Remember, VVP is the guy who has tied The West in knots for the last half dozen years and kept Russia out of a major war for over a decade as he, personally, built up the armed forces in to a power to be reckoned with.

As Ded'ya Drakon said, part of the armory has been openly displayed and EU/US had a litter of kittens at the sight of Kalibr missiles from those little river boats plastering IGIL all over the countryside with pinpoint accuracy from 1500 klicks distance. Tupolov's flew in from Mozdok and Murmansk to add to the fracas and our flag the Mockba added to the carnage in the IGIL ranks by tossing a few missiles in for a live fire exercise. The air boys have done an incredible job of showing The World some of what we have. The logisitcs troops have shown their skills in spades as have the support cadre.

What more do you want? Russia saved President Assad's ass, he would have gone down in defeat and been murdered with his entire family by the end of September last year if VVP had not stepped in and by this time Syria would make Libya look like heaven. By doing what he did he pretty much stopped IGIL from selling oil to Turkei, he stopped IGIL et al in their tracks and slaughtered them, he stymied US in their plans for Syria as he stymied their plans for 404 and Byelorus. Don't let the beer get cold and keep the popcorn warm. Something is afoot.

How will the SAA capture the Syrian oil fields without Russian air cover?

What do you guys think of the withdrawal being done because of what looks like Turkey immanent invasion of Northern Syria. The small Russian contingent of troops in Syria would be vulnerable if the conflict with Turkey turns hot. Instead now Russia can arm the Kurds and SAA and wage a diplomatic war against that terrorist Erdogan as he breaks international law and invades Syria. If there is a conflict against Turkey, it would be safer if most Russian troops are home, out of Turkey's reach.

I am confused, but one thing is clear with this terror acts in Turkey, they will need to do something.

Boban wrote:What do you guys think of the withdrawal being done because of what looks like Turkey immanent invasion of Northern Syria. The small Russian contingent of troops in Syria would be vulnerable if the conflict with Turkey turns hot. Instead now Russia can arm the Kurds and SAA and wage a diplomatic war against that terrorist Erdogan as he breaks international law and invades Syria. If there is a conflict against Turkey, it would be safer if most Russian troops are home, out of Turkey's reach.

I am confused, but one thing is clear with this terror acts in Turkey, they will need to do something.

You have a a lot of faith for the power of words.

Boban wrote:What do you guys think of the withdrawal being done because of what looks like Turkey immanent invasion of Northern Syria. The small Russian contingent of troops in Syria would be vulnerable if the conflict with Turkey turns hot. Instead now Russia can arm the Kurds and SAA and wage a diplomatic war against that terrorist Erdogan as he breaks international law and invades Syria. If there is a conflict against Turkey, it would be safer if most Russian troops are home, out of Turkey's reach.

I am confused, but one thing is clear with this terror acts in Turkey, they will need to do something.

I had the same thought about pulling out the troops, because Russia thinks Turkey is about to do something seriously stupid.

http://lifenews.ru/news/190236

Looks like they are going to withdraw everything.

Basically Putin is saying is ready to sacrifice Syria for avoiding war with Turkey. This is not good
news for Syria ,no matter how Putin claims it to be. Syria is doomed , because Russia is sending the wrong signal ,that they leaving . So expect in less than 30 days that Russia leave a major invasion from either Israel or Turkey or Americans with the pretext of "fighting ISIS".

This is what i hate about Russia foreign policies . They give false hopes to its allies that they
will be defended in case of war , to later do this coward move , or leaving when the war is still
going on.  All that policy needs to end or putin needs to be kicked.

Had the soviets never messed in Cuba or Syria ,none of those nations will had the misery they had to experience for many decades for being targets of the Americans and its major allies. Syria cannot be an independent nation , they do not have the military power ,neither the strategic geography to defend itself in case a major attack from ISRAEL or NATO.

The same goes to Serbia , Russia should get the hell out of there and leave it to Americans.
And tell them , in clear words that if they get in troubles with Americans and NATO ,they will be on their own and all Russia can do is supply weapons but not military help.

This is not even good news for Russia either , because it sends a bad signal to Russian allies ,
that you cannot rely on Russia in case of war . Means that Putin policies in Syria will only help NATO to become bigger.  The major mistake however was not done by Putin ,but soviets .
they should have never gone to middle east ,or any country that they are not prepared to defend. Russia power projection is very limited and cannot effectively fight outside its territory
with conventional warfare. and heavily depends on its nuclear deterrence to do it.  

The good news however is that Turkey future is doomed , it have none.. so even if they invade
Syria ,they will be unable to hold it for long if their economy collapse and their nation is on a civil war.   So Syria will likely end split in the near future ,and ISIS zones will be passed with a shake of hands from ISIS to "moderates". and NATO will claim victory is "Defeating ISIS" and will move its armies there to protect their moderates (former ISIS/alqaeda fighters) from "Evil Assad".


Soviets mistake was to ever moving to the middle east and make alliance with anyone there ,
opposing US/Israel interest of dominating that region. and Putin mistake was to allow Syria lose so much territory before giving them a helping hand. If Putin moved to Syria 2 years earlier in 2013 and not 2015, when Syrian army was stronger ,it will have allowed the Syrian army to retake most of territory .Will have retaken Aleppo and Idlib and latakia never lost. and Syria will be in control of most of its territory. The timing Russia jump to help Syria was really terrible when was about to collapse. and Igor Strelkov Criticised Putin for this.

So i predict in short term Syria will split and in 2-5 years completely over run by NATO+ their ISIS allies but under a new name. Syria is doomed and there will be nothing Russia can do .
The only positive thing in all this , that Syria will not collapse alone. Turkey will split too. Because kurds in turkey will be given modern weapons in revenge for Syria. Either by IRAN or Russia or even the European Union will do it too. And that the European Union young generations will wake up ,about US imperialism how criminal and destructive is in the world and
their need to retake their independence back , and oppose to NATO . I dont think the European Union is happy about Erdogan blackmailing them with $6 billions for retaking millions refugees
he sent to Europe,that his illegal and criminal war on Syria created. So Erdogan will be unable to visit any place in Europe without risking his life. He is a dead man walking.

Boshoed wrote:

Boban wrote:What do you guys think of the withdrawal being done because of what looks like Turkey immanent invasion of Northern Syria. The small Russian contingent of troops in Syria would be vulnerable if the conflict with Turkey turns hot. Instead now Russia can arm the Kurds and SAA and wage a diplomatic war against that terrorist Erdogan as he breaks international law and invades Syria. If there is a conflict against Turkey, it would be safer if most Russian troops are home, out of Turkey's reach.

I am confused, but one thing is clear with this terror acts in Turkey, they will need to do something.

I had the same thought about pulling out the troops, because Russia thinks Turkey is about to do something seriously stupid.

And let Turkey get away with it?

Russia has spent billions to it's Syria campaign. Why would it make sense for Russia to capitulate and let Turkey take the whole cake?

Karl Haushofer wrote:

Boshoed wrote:

Boban wrote:What do you guys think of the withdrawal being done because of what looks like Turkey immanent invasion of Northern Syria. The small Russian contingent of troops in Syria would be vulnerable if the conflict with Turkey turns hot. Instead now Russia can arm the Kurds and SAA and wage a diplomatic war against that terrorist Erdogan as he breaks international law and invades Syria. If there is a conflict against Turkey, it would be safer if most Russian troops are home, out of Turkey's reach.

I am confused, but one thing is clear with this terror acts in Turkey, they will need to do something.

I had the same thought about pulling out the troops, because Russia thinks Turkey is about to do something seriously stupid.

And let Turkey get away with it?

Russia has spent billions to it's Syria campaign. Why would it make sense for Russia to capitulate and let Turkey take the whole cake?

And the first person on my ignore list is you. Congrats.

There was no pretext for a Russian military intervention in Syria in 2013, ISIS grew big only in 2014. Russia would have been torn apart by MSM as helping a dictator against innocent people, and the "moderate rebels".

An important quote from VVP himself.

"Our bases – the naval base in Tartus and the airbase at the Khmeimim airfield – will operate in a routine mode. They are to be safely protected from the land, from the sea and from air," Vladimir Putin has said

Boban wrote:http://lifenews.ru/news/190236

Looks like they are going to withdraw everything.

So why do you think Russia is chickening out now?