Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #8

KoTeMoRe wrote:

High definition of the gun and optics.

The Gun isn't a 74M. Most probably a chop job on a 74N (you can also see the year of production of the gun, 1992). In retrospect, it looks like indeed a 74N has been applied almost the whole MR upgrade on the gun. Handguard, grip, buttstock

BTW whoever this guy was, he died with his gun in hand. Rest in Peace warrior.

Cyrus the great wrote:Contrary to all the howls of protest and expressions of opposition and disbelief, I actually think that the Russians have taken the right course of action; by creating the conditions for a political settlement, the Russians have ensured that Assad will prevail in any prospective credible election held in the near future -> thereby disarming the vacuous and flimsy Western propaganda that wants us to be convinced that Assad is illegitimate, unwanted by the majority of Syrians and must therefore be removed by arming head-chopping Islamists.... Islamists the West desperately wants us to believe are "moderate" - whatever that means.

Once Assad wins a credible election (making it abundantly clear that he is the legitimate representative of the Syrian people) a military option will become all the more attractive and can be pursued without any restrictions. Victory in Chess requires steps, a process -- the same is true for geopolitics. These are necessary steps to victory. Apart from the obvious military victories, the Russians have achieved certain diplomatic goals; Syria is to remain undivided; it must maintain its secular status -- which is the very opposite of what all the terror groups are fighting for; Assad cannot be forced to step-down by outside forces at the beginning of any interim arrangement... that power has been reserved for the sovereign people of Syria. Not too shabby.

Beirut (AFP) - Russian jets are flying up to 25 bombing raids daily to back up a Syrian government offensive to recapture the ancient city of Palmyra from Islamic State jihadists, the armed forces said Friday.

Senior commander Sergei Rudskoi insisted that the "conditions have been created for the encirclement and definitive defeat of IS armed formations in Palmyra".

"Government troops and patriotic forces with the support of the Russian air force are carrying out a large-scale operation to liberate Palmyra," he told journalists.

"On average Russian planes are flying 20 to 25 combat sorties each day," Rudskoi said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday spoke of "intense battles" going on around Palmyra as he decorated Russian officers who served in Syria and said he hoped the "pearl of world civilisation" would be returned to the Syrian people.

The ongoing strikes come despite some of Moscow's jets in Syria returning home after Putin -- one of the main backers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad -- on Monday ordered a surprise withdrawal of most of his forces from the war-torn country.

The IS jihadist group has claimed the killing of five Russian troops in fighting near Palmyra.

"The soldiers of the caliphate, by the grace of God, have killed five Russian soldiers and six members" of the Syrian army, IS said in a statement.

The group also claimed the killing of several members of the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah group in the clashes near Palmyra.

A website linked to IS, Aamaq, carried a similar claim and a video showing the bloodied corpse of a man in military gear that it claimed was a Russian military advisor.

The footage also shows equipment presumably captured after the clashes, including a customised AK-74M rifle, a helmet and a compass.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not confirm either the presence of Russian advisors around Palmyra or the IS claim of the soldiers' killing.

"The advance (on Palmyra) is carried out by contingents of the Syrian army," Peskov said.

PapaDragon wrote:
I am not buying part about killed Russian, you would think that MSM would have been all over this in concert if there were any truth to this. It has been over two days now. Not everyone with fancy gear in mid-east is Russian.


Russia flying daily sorties to back Assad forces around Palmyra

http://news.yahoo.com/claims-five-russian-troops-killed-near-syrias-palmyra-001451766.html

...

sepheronx wrote:There seems to be conflicting information.  In previous pages it said Su-24M would be staying in Syria but then our other friend states that already of the 12, 4 have left syria with only 8 remaining.

Do we have confirmation as to what is actually going to stay and which is going?

d_taddei2 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:There seems to be conflicting information.  In previous pages it said Su-24M would be staying in Syria but then our other friend states that already of the 12, 4 have left syria with only 8 remaining.

Do we have confirmation as to what is actually going to stay and which is going?

yeah sourcs have said all aircraft going apart from Mi-24/35 and bringing in Ka-52 and Mi-28 although no numbers yet. Would be interesting which aircraft did this

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-pounds-isis-raqqa/

what is happening with the Su-27SM surely would be worth keeping them in Syria along with some Su-24M

JohninMK wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:There seems to be conflicting information.  In previous pages it said Su-24M would be staying in Syria but then our other friend states that already of the 12, 4 have left syria with only 8 remaining.

Do we have confirmation as to what is actually going to stay and which is going?

yeah sourcs have said all aircraft going apart from Mi-24/35 and bringing in Ka-52 and Mi-28 although no numbers yet. Would be interesting which aircraft did this

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-pounds-isis-raqqa/

what is happening with the Su-27SM surely would be worth keeping them in Syria along with some Su-24M

AFAIK there are no Su-27SM there, only Su-35, Su-30, Su-34 from the Flanker family.

Its logical to keep the 'fighters' but pull all the tactical bombing aircraft like the Su-24 and Su-34 out as they have destroyed most of 'their' possible targets so are no longer needed and their CAS role can be taken by the helicopters or the Su-30 in its bomber role.

short_fuze wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
I am not buying part about killed Russian, you would think that MSM would have been all over this in concert if there were any truth to this. It has been over two days now. Not everyone with fancy gear in mid-east is Russian.


Russia flying daily sorties to back Assad forces around Palmyra

http://news.yahoo.com/claims-five-russian-troops-killed-near-syrias-palmyra-001451766.html

...

Me too. If the guy in the film was Russian, it is totally out of character for the takfiris not to make the most of his death. Heck, they have filmed themselves machine-gunning the corpses of Syrians before, going from body to body. Now we get a short coy shot of someone dead, followed by a disconnected set-piece of carefully staged equipment. The mix of equipment doesn't make sense. A mine detector for a Russian advisor? Some Guccified gun gear. Where's the ID card? The dog tags? It strikes me as an attempted morale-booster for the takfiris.

PapaDragon wrote:I am not buying part about killed Russian, you would think that MSM would have been all over this in concert if there were any truth to this. It has been over two days now. Not everyone with fancy gear in mid-east is Russian.

With characteristic deadpan delivery, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the sudden withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria earlier this week, declaring their campaign a success.  Before the day was through, Russian aircraft and crews were already departing from Hmeymim air base in Latakia.  Since this announcement, the media has been alight with speculation on the meaning of Russia’s sudden departure, its political and military implications, and the reasons for this seemingly unexpected move.  Much of the discussion has thus far missed the mark.  There is no Russian withdrawal from Syria, but rather a drawdown of the air contingent present in Latakia. Putin simply moved pieces on the board, without altering the equation.

This maneuver is more about political perceptions than military reality. It constitutes a political reframing of Russia’s intervention in order to normalize Moscow’s military presence in Syria, and make it permanent, while convincing Russians at home that the campaign is over. Putin’s statement is yet another successful effort to achieve a domestic and international publicity coup.

The “withdrawal” announcement is not about how Russia leaves, but about how it stays in Syria.  Those who have doubts should watch the actual video of Putin ordering Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to initiate the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria.  He orders that Russia’s existing bases in Tartus and Hmeymim continue to operate at present levels.  In addition, Russia’s defense minister is to ensure that they are fully defended from land, sea, and air.  The worrisome S-400 long range air defense, along with shorter range systems, will remain in place, a point emphasized in later statement by Vladimir Putin.  Russia’s main military bases will continue operations: with naval cover, a ground contingent for force protection, and an unknown number of troops still on the ground to advise Syrian forces.

Russian sources indicate that Russia is withdrawing Su-25 strike aircraft and Su-34 bombers from Syria; while it is leaving some Su-24 bombers and Mi-24 and Mi-35 attack helicopters, as well as Su-30SM and Su-35 multirole fighters.  It seems likely the number of aircraft present will be reduced by half, close to the original numbers Russia fielded in Syria in October 2015. The remaining aircraft will continue to operate over Syria, and in fact have conducted strikes in recent days in support of Syrian army efforts to retake Palmyra from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).  This means that, according to the Pentagon, they’re focusing on ISIL for the first time.  Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov also stated that Russian aircraft will be striking ISIL and al-Nusra Front, the implication being that combat operations will continue.  Indeed, while some of Russia’s tactical aviation has left, it has been replaced with newly arrived Ka-52 and Mi-28N helicopters.  These more advanced helicopters will provide close support to Syrian forces, and also undergo combat exploitation as part of Russia’s effort to test new weapon systems in field conditions.  Russia’s naval squadron shows no signs of leaving the eastern Mediterranean, though the total number of ships may be decreased since the pace of Russian operations is bound to decline.

In other words, what is happening on the ground is a drawdown of forces that were surged to Syria in the aftermath of the shootdown of a Russian Su-24 by Turkey in November 2015 and the intensified fighting over the winter.  Furthermore, since Russia is keeping control of the Hmeymim airbase and continuing work to expand the Tartus naval base, nothing changes from an infrastructure point of view.  Those investments have already been made, and are not going to be abandoned. The aircraft that are being withdrawn this week can easily be reintroduced should military or political circumstances warrant a ramp up.  Nothing is leaving that cannot come back in a matter of days, and other equipment is likely to arrive in its place.

Putin’s announcement was seemingly a surprise; yet several days before some Russian papers and blogs had suggested that precisely such a turn of events was in the works.  It is unlikely the White House was genuinely surprised by the announcement.  The question is, why declare a withdrawal now?  The down payment on the operation was made in the fall, when the bases at Tartus and Hmeymim were refurbished, and most of the platforms and equipment being used in the operation were shipped to Syria. Keeping it there and maintaining it has never been especially expensive for the Russian military; on the contrary, the operation has provided an invaluable training and equipment testing opportunity.  A reduced presence gives Russia the opportunity to right-size its forces by withdrawing unneeded equipment, replacing it with more useful units, and cutting back on the contingent it has to sustain.

Declaring victory and announcing that Russian forces are going home now is useful for Russia for several reasons. First, as Joshua Landis and other experts have noted, it gives Moscow political leverage with Damascus in the upcoming Geneva talks.  Putin no doubt wants Syrian President Bashar Assad to accept the compromise they reach at the negotiating table, and abandon any ambitions to reconquer all of Syria.  If Syrian forces break the ceasefire, or obstruct negotiations, they cannot know for certain that Russia will support them.  This move will impress upon Assad that he needs to keep Russian equities in mind, and is an important way for Moscow to maintain flexibility on what happens next in Syria, avoiding a policy trap.  In the Middle East above anywhere else, it is better to have choices than commitments.

The domestic audience is perhaps even more important to the Russian leadership than Syria’s future.  Putin has cashed in politically on Russia’s recent military successes before any further complications can occur. By declaring victory and calling an end to the operation, he locks in his gains in both domestic and international public opinion, regardless of what comes out of the ceasefire and tentative peace negotiations.  No doubt this might offer a hike in political approval at home, but that’s just one aspect of Moscow’s play.  Russia’s leader is using this declaration as a means of recasting the military operations in Syria as a “traditional” military presence, thus normalizing it for the domestic audience.  This is no sleight of hand, Putin said it in plain Russian: The military presence moving forward will be considered Russia’s traditional footprint in Syria, not an operation.

Anyone who believes that this withdrawal is a sign of Russian retrenchment due to overextension is likely to be disappointed.  Moscow’s announcement is a means of turning the chapter on the intervention in Syria, but it is not about defining how Russia leaves, but rather about how it stays to secure long term interests.  The change of political reference is a mechanism to ensure both the domestic audience and the international community come onboard and accept Russian military presence in Syria as the new normal.

Zivo wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

d_taddei2 wrote:

sepheronx wrote:There seems to be conflicting information.  In previous pages it said Su-24M would be staying in Syria but then our other friend states that already of the 12, 4 have left syria with only 8 remaining.

Do we have confirmation as to what is actually going to stay and which is going?

yeah sourcs have said all aircraft going apart from Mi-24/35 and bringing in Ka-52 and Mi-28 although no numbers yet. Would be interesting which aircraft did this

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-pounds-isis-raqqa/

what is happening with the Su-27SM surely would be worth keeping them in Syria along with some Su-24M

AFAIK there are no Su-27SM there, only Su-35, Su-30, Su-34 from the Flanker family.

Its logical to keep the 'fighters' but pull all the tactical bombing aircraft like the Su-24 and Su-34 out as they have destroyed most of 'their' possible targets so are no longer needed and their CAS role can be taken by the helicopters or the Su-30 in its bomber role.

I don't understand the shock over the mission restructuring. Numerous posters here, including myself were well aware that deep strikes and other strategic plays can only go so far, and eventually they will run out of targets to bomb. It's a waste to have unused aircraft sitting on a desert tarmac, which was the past state of affairs before the current reduction. It's almost like some of you want Russia to repeat the mistakes the US military has made over the last decade, burning through equipment life to support lavish conquests.

Strike aircraft out, attack helicopters in, this is the long awaited "phase two" of the operation.

Morpheus Eberhardt wrote:

short_fuze wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
I am not buying part about killed Russian, you would think that MSM would have been all over this in concert if there were any truth to this. It has been over two days now. Not everyone with fancy gear in mid-east is Russian.


Russia flying daily sorties to back Assad forces around Palmyra

http://news.yahoo.com/claims-five-russian-troops-killed-near-syrias-palmyra-001451766.html

...

Me too. If the guy in the film was Russian, it is totally out of character for the takfiris not to make the most of his death. Heck, they have filmed themselves machine-gunning the corpses of Syrians before, going from body to body. Now we get a short coy shot of someone dead, followed by a disconnected set-piece of carefully staged equipment. The mix of equipment doesn't make sense. A mine detector for a Russian advisor? Some Guccified gun gear. Where's the ID card? The dog tags? It strikes me as an attempted morale-booster for the takfiris.

+1