Khepesh Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:19 pm
Closer and closer..
Lifenews had published a slightly simplistic but clear picture of Russian and American assets in the region and capabilities. Nothing new to this forum of course. However the important part is that it says that our forces may actually be rather exposed in a scenario involving a no fly zone and of America launching mass wave of cruise missiles at Assad forces. Article states that it is unlikely that any American aircraft will get involved in breaking no fly zone in any major way as they are very vulnerable to Russian and Syrian AD capabilities, and this also goes for any Turkish incursions, which it says are also very unlikely, not least because of frosty relations with Washington. The article sees a scenario where America could launch mass cruise missile strike, and says about the 415 missiles launched at Iraq in 1998 during operation "Desert Fox", but not all 415 were launched at the same time of course. Anyway, Americans can launch substantial volleys of missiles at one time. The issue is does Russia then take these missiles down or let them fly and do huge damage to SAA. What happens when first American cruise missile is taken down either from Russian warship or ground battery, war? And even if not war straight away, to try to take down the amount of missiles that America is capable of launching will deplete stocks of S-300 missiles in theatre, possibly even completely expend all of them. If so, even if WWIII has not occured, the AA defence capability is severely depleted, at least until resupply from Russia, and VKS in Syria are insufficient to deal with a potential major American air strike to follow up from the missile strikes. Of course there may never be a no fly zone and Americans never launch mass cruise missile attack on SAA, but given their instability and previous record of acting in the most irresponsible manner, it cannot be ruled out that they will launch such an attack, no fly zone or not. If they just launch one small volley, what will be the responce? if it comes from American missile cruisers or submarines in Mediterranean, then Russian squadron will need to react as the target, while it can be guessed at, will not be known for sure and what if it is pre-emptive strike, now will captain of Moskva know for certain that American cruise missile is not for him or that at the same time America has pressed button and hell is breaking out. He cannot know at that precise moment, he cannot wait for orders, for confirmation that American ICBMs are not in the air, he must react. We are potentially seconds from midnight. It is not a real analogy to the present situation, but for those who have not seen it, I recomend watching "The Bedford Incident"
https://life.ru/t/наука/910504/zakryt_niebo_sirii_zashchita_nashikh_intieriesov_ili_kliuch_k_trietiei_mirovoi
Last edited by Khepesh on Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:33 pm; edited 1 time in total