Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

GarryB wrote:I would trust Trump.

par far wrote:Here is a 1 hour 32 minute video(watch the full video) on how Russia changed the Syrian conflict.

https://southfront.org/russian-military-campaign-in-syria-2015-2018/

eehnie wrote:In the refered to Turkey, Russia has been receiving drone attacks from the area of Idlib, and Turkey does nothing to stop it.

Like the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, Turkey is in the side of the losers in this war, and neither will have benefits.

The doubt in the case of US, Israel and Turkey is only about the size of the loses, still to be determined.

BKP wrote:I sympathize with that, but unfortunately Turkey is a country that for several reasons has cards to play in regard to shaping the final outcome of this conflict. So, unfortunately, their interests will have to be accommodated, within reason of course.

BKP wrote:

eehnie wrote:In the refered to Turkey, Russia has been receiving drone attacks from the area of Idlib, and Turkey does nothing to stop it.

Like the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, Turkey is in the side of the losers in this war, and neither will have benefits.

The doubt in the case of US, Israel and Turkey is only about the size of the loses, still to be determined.

If I remember right, you're a citizen of a country that has historical antipathy toward Turkey. I sympathize with that, but unfortunately Turkey is a country that for several reasons has cards to play in regard to shaping the final outcome of this conflict. So, unfortunately, their interests will have to be accommodated, within reason of course.

GarryB wrote:Like it or not, Bulgaria turned down a source of income and assured gas supplies from Russia, which directly led to Russia giving up on the EU in terms of the south stream and to offering Turkey control of gas supplies via the south to the EU. At that time Turkey was shooting down Russian aircraft over Syria... yet they were not as dumb as Bulgaria... they will cooperate on gas supplies to the EU... of course Turkey is not Russia... Russia nor the Soviet Union before it ever blocked gas supplies to the EU, during the entire period of the cold war and beyond that supplies were piped there...

Ukraine on the other hand stole supplies meant for the EU and therefore interrupted supplies... the interruption was blamed on Russia of course even though the gas is beyond their control once it enters the Ukraine.

Now Turkey will be in the same position as the Ukraine... I wonder how often faults will occur that stop gas supplies going to Europe?

Alternative supplies from the US are far too expensive so even if there is a problem Russia will likely still get the sales, but it will be up to the EU to deal with Turkey to sort things out.

If I was Russia I would sell all my gas to Turkey and let Turkey sell to Europe as they like, then EU rules will not apply... Russian companies could even own the pipelines as the gas will be Turkish... that is not what they intended when they passed that law, but tough.

GarryB wrote:Interesting chart if you read it correctly... those blue lines are proposed lines... the only actual pipes are a small pipe going to Turkey and pipes crossing the Ukraine... the three blue pipes going through Belarus, latvia and the baltic don't exist... right now the gas goes through the Ukraine... they are adding only two new lines... one through the baltic that bypasses the baltic states and goes straight from Russia to Germany and one that goes through the Black Sea directly to Turkey... and once those two are up and running it is most likely they will then greatly reduce the flow through the Ukraine or perhaps even stop the flow all together because the Ukrainians are so unreasonable and they have a history of stealing gas meant for other customers...

eehnie wrote:
If you look at the map, the minimum distance (straight line) from the Russian Arctic gas fields until France, the Basque Country, Catalonia, Spain, Portugal and Northern Italy goes by Belarus, not even Ukraine, that is the shortest supply way toward the Balkans. The Nord Stream pipeline is perfect also for South Western Europe. Basically, the Russian gas will not give a tour in the range of thousands of Km to reach South Western Europe by Turkey, only because some people with very little knowledge of geography says it. Also to note that to transport the gas by warmer countries requires a bigger effort to keep the gas liquid. And finally to note that Spain and South Italy receive gas today from Algeria and Libia.

The pipeline to Turkey is for gas for Turkey. Neither Russia and the European Union have interest in to give to Turkey any power in the gas transit. Turkey has not control over Russian gas, and never will be given this position. And turkey is easily avoidable for both, Russia and the European Union. The rest are dreams of low documented "oil and gas strategists".

JohninMK wrote:

eehnie wrote:I said it you some years ago. The main Russian pipelines toward Europe will be the Nord Stream pipelines by the Baltic sea. And the US is criying a lot about it.



If you look at the map, the minimum distance (straight line) from the Russian Arctic gas fields until France, the Basque Country, Catalonia, Spain, Portugal and Northern Italy goes by Belarus, not even Ukraine, that is the shortest supply way toward the Balkans. The Nord Stream pipeline is perfect also for South Western Europe. Basically, the Russian gas will not give a tour in the range of thousands of Km to reach South Western Europe by Turkey, only because some people with very little knowledge of geography says it. Also to note that to transport the gas by warmer countries requires a bigger effort to keep the gas liquid. And finally to note that Spain and South Italy receive gas today from Algeria and Libia.

The pipeline to Turkey is for gas for Turkey. Neither Russia and the European Union have interest in to give to Turkey any power in the gas transit. Turkey has not control over Russian gas, and never will be given this position. And turkey is easily avoidable for both, Russia and the European Union. The rest are dreams of low documented "oil and gas strategists".

Come on, you can do better than that. The map you quote from is 15 years old and a lot has changed since then. In particular Turkstream is nearing completion.

In my view the problem is not getting gas into the EU, it is what happens to it then. There is just not enough west/east or especially north/south pipeline capacity installed to allow much change in gas routes over now. It is very expensive to route new pipelines within the EU compared to under the Baltic or Black Seas.

But this is really going off thread now.

BKP wrote:

Does anyone here know who hell southfront are exactly? I don't know myself, but that report is a stellar piece of work, imo. It's so unfortunate that the vast majority of people I might think to share it with will just see it as further evidence that I'm an obsessed weirdo. That piece telescopes a great deal of what is relevant into 90 or so minutes.

First photo of part of Tartus airdefence. Some powerful radars there. They got a chance to test lowAltitude detection in recent months with all those drones&rockets flying toward them.

Kasta 2E2
Podlet-K
P-18

Details/source for every radar on photo.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=sr&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fdiana-mihailova.livejournal.com%2F2527788.html&edit-text=&act=url

Russia will be more likely to issue loans for the purchase of military equipment and weapons

Kubinka (Moscow region). August 22. INTERFAX-AVN - Russia is stepping up military technical cooperation with Syria and Algeria, said the state Corporation "rostec".

"The volume of orders for Russian equipment, the leader is India. On the second place China. We are stepping up cooperation in military-technical cooperation with Vietnam, Algeria, Syria," - said in an interview to "Interfax" the Director of industrial cluster "Arms" of the state Corporation "rostec" Sergey Abramov.

According to him, currently there is the potential for the promotion abroad of aircraft systems, air defense systems, armored vehicles.

"It is planned to increase exports by providing additional convenient for the customer services and incentives, such as lending, procurement, after sales service and the localization of production", - said Sergei Abramov.

He added that another niche for development is the modernization of the previous generations of Russian art, which exploit the foreign customers.

"If we consider the export market by regions is distributed as follows: more than 50% of the countries of South - East Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, about 20% of the Arab world and North Africa, 15% Latin America, 8% CIS," said Sergei Abramov.

On the eve of the forum "Army-2018", the head of "Rosoboronexport" Alexander Mikheyev said that Russia is seeking an alternative to the dollar in the calculations for the supplied equipment, weapons and services.

"We are considering the possibility of settlements in national currencies is the Indian rupee, the Chinese yuan, derhami and rubles," - said A. Miheev.

According to him, Russia does not reduce the intensity of the negotiations. "Accordingly, the calculations are with our partners. They are sensitive to this situation because the sanctions are directed not only against Russian organizations, including Rosoboronexport, but also against our partners," - said A. Miheev.

calm wrote:Now in Med Sea:

CG Marshal Ustinov
DDG Severomorsk
DDG Yaroslav Mudryy
FFG Admiral Grigorovich
FFG Admiral Essen
FFL Pytlivyy
FSG Vyshniy Volochek
FSG Grad Sviyazhsk
FSG Velikiy Ustyug
LST Orsk
LST Nikolay Fil'chenkov
MS Turbinist
MS Valentin Pikul
SS Kolpino
SS Velikiy Novgorod

Nikolay Muru

PapaDragon wrote:

calm wrote:Now in Med Sea:

CG Marshal Ustinov
DDG Severomorsk
DDG Yaroslav Mudryy
FFG Admiral Grigorovich
FFG Admiral Essen
FFL Pytlivyy
FSG Vyshniy Volochek
FSG Grad Sviyazhsk
FSG Velikiy Ustyug
LST Orsk
LST Nikolay Fil'chenkov
MS Turbinist
MS Valentin Pikul
SS Kolpino
SS Velikiy Novgorod

Nikolay Muru

Almost as if they expect another chem false flag situation?

That's a nice setup they got there. Should probably add couple of undeclared SSNs.

Gotta hand it to RU Navy, they may not have many vessels but they have testicular glands to spare. Polar opposite of Chinese Navy...

PapaDragon wrote:
Gotta hand it to RU Navy, they may not have many vessels but they have testicular glands to spare.