Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #13

starman wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:
Gotta hand it to RU Navy, they may not have many vessels but they have testicular glands to spare.

Does anybody really expect the Russian Navy to fight the USN? Btw what's the use of false flag operations of this kind? Has previous "retaliation" stopped the advance of the SAA?

No the won't as Russia will not take the blame for starting WW3.

I think they are more a picket line against incoming cruise missiles from US subs in the Med and a disincentive against aircraft out of Akrotiri.

Make your own conclusions on this.

Wael
????????
‏ @WaelAlRussi
24h24 hours ago

The #RuAF cargo planes are landing in #Syria with the transponder OFF.

GarryB wrote:Sorry, a little off topic, but, yes there is a gas pipe through Belarus, but its capacity is pathetic and even with both north stream and south stream not built yet would not be a viable alternative to gas through the Ukraine...

Look here on this infographic, but also below it shows capacities... north and south planned pipelines are necessary as alternative replacements for the Ukraine pipe if that becomes unusable...

http://tass.com/infographics/7275

Better to check official sources man, the infographic is wrong.

http://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/pipelines/built/turk-stream/

The Yamal and the Turkish Stream pipelines are of about the same size, with the difference that half of the Turkish Stream capacity is reserved for the own consum of Turkey, The export capacity of the Yamal pipeline after Poland is bigger than the export capacity of the Turkish Stream after Turkey,

West is mad because Russia stepped in and stopped fall of Assad. Even if Assad could win without Russia help(he could not) US would bomb him eventually. So now they would like to do something, but so far only thing they manage to do is to bomb SAA here and there. With every pocket around Damascus cleared they become more furious. And now when there is only Idlib left there is a chance they will try something again. But presence of Al Qaeda is blocking them from all out attack on SAA, because it would look like they are helping them. Same will happen with Kurdish territories. Those are only places where they will bomb SAA intensively on daily basis if attack happen.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201808261067486047-russian-frigates-mediterranean-deployment/

Grigorovitch and Essen are being deployed on the Syrian coast in prevision of US attack.

They're saying they suspect a false flag chemical attack in Idlib with the involvement of the White Helmets

Isos wrote:https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201808261067486047-russian-frigates-mediterranean-deployment/

Grigorovitch and Essen are being deployed on the Syrian coast in prevision of US attack.

Maybe, but as part of their buildup for Idlib the Russians have very seriously increased their forces in the Med, including the guided missile cruiser and destroyer from the Baltic Fleet currently sailing east across the Med. Included is a flotilla of six virtually new frigates (two being those you mention) and corvettes from the Black Sea Fleet and inevitably some subs.

The first significant factor about this gathering is that it must have been planned weeks ago, well before any talk of a third Coalition WMD based attack. The second is that this fleet is primarily armed with surface attack missiles, including 16 1000kg warheads on the cruiser and countless 500kg Kalibre cruise missiles, rather than anti air missiles for use against for example cruise missiles.

This implies that their originally planned use will be as a heavy first strike against the terrorists in Idlib. Very useful as a reminder to NATO just what the RuN is capable of as opposed to the RuA and RuAF.

If as a result there is a poison gas incident the air defence missiles on the ships, fortuitously positioned as a picket line, can be used against any incoming Coalition cruise missiles from the West. If this were to happen and as forewarning of a strike seems to be the new strategy to avoid WW3, perhaps Moscow will warn that the runway at Akrotiri should be cleared at a particular time as there will be incoming.

Does anybody really expect the Russian Navy to fight the USN? Btw what's the use of false flag operations of this kind? Has previous "retaliation" stopped the advance of the SAA?

The better question is, does the west want to risk actually losing hardware and people over Syria?

The Yamal and the Turkish Stream pipelines are of about the same size, with the difference that half of the Turkish Stream capacity is reserved for the own consum of Turkey, The export capacity of the Yamal pipeline after Poland is bigger than the export capacity of the Turkish Stream after Turkey,

So why are they bothering building two new pipelines?

The first significant factor about this gathering is that it must have been planned weeks ago, well before any talk of a third Coalition WMD based attack. The second is that this fleet is primarily armed with surface attack missiles, including 16 1000kg warheads on the cruiser and countless 500kg Kalibre cruise missiles, rather than anti air missiles for use against for example cruise missiles.

They likely have a stockpile of Granits they might want to use up, and further refining their technique with Calibr would be useful...

perhaps Moscow will warn that the runway at Akrotiri should be cleared at a particular time as there will be incoming.

Communication is critical... tell that to the west busy kicking out diplomats...

GarryB wrote:

Communication is critical... tell that to the west busy kicking out diplomats...

You just hit the target hotspot without realising it with your comment.

On the highest mountain in Cyprus is a highly (and that is an understated adjective) important US/NATO radar/listening/satellite up-down link site that could be easily evacuated. That would be a much better target than a runway, a very serious threat indeed.

Or even, if a point needed to be made to Turkey, that US radar site in eastern Turkey.

GarryB wrote:

The Yamal and the Turkish Stream pipelines are of about the same size, with the difference that half of the Turkish Stream capacity is reserved for the own consum of Turkey, The export capacity of the Yamal pipeline after Poland is bigger than the export capacity of the Turkish Stream after Turkey,

So why are they bothering building two new pipelines?

Double lines offer technical advantages in the refered to the reparations and mainteinance works.

The rest was explained in my previous comments. Overcapacity helps Russia bypassing the ambitions of potential transit countries like Poland, Ukraine and Turkey (in the future), that can be easily bypassed as explained.

eehnie wrote:

GarryB wrote:

The Yamal and the Turkish Stream pipelines are of about the same size, with the difference that half of the Turkish Stream capacity is reserved for the own consum of Turkey, The export capacity of the Yamal pipeline after Poland is bigger than the export capacity of the Turkish Stream after Turkey,

So why are they bothering building two new pipelines?

Double lines offer technical advantages in the refered to the reparations and mainteinance works.

The rest was explained in my previous comments. Overcapacity helps Russia bypassing the ambitions of potential transit countries like Poland, Ukraine and Turkey (in the future), that can be easily bypassed as explained.

As you say spare capacity is very much in Russia's interests, both due to being able to re-route supplies and also argue at times with Brussels that someone else could use it. A bit like the Opal pipeline in Germany where the EU forced Russia to accept only 50% use, until last winter when the capacity was needed and 100% made available.

As I have mentioned before, the problem for both Russia and the EU, in north/middle/south supply switching, is pipeline that capacity/routing within the EU is the limiting factor. Especially in the south where once the gas, from Russia or the 'stans, gets west of the Bosphorus there is currently no significant pipeline to take it into the EU. This was a major reason for SouthStream which cut the corner into the major switching site at Baumgarten in Austria. But Bulgaria wasn't Germany, able to resist US pressure.

Still this is really O/T now so that's my last comment.

Another factor is that EU demand for Russian gas is likely to increase... not decrease, yet some claim they already have plenty of capacity already...

The actual problem is that the Ukraine is an unreliable supplier and lets be honest if Russia cut off supply through the Ukraine right now the EU is likely to say they will cut off supplies via Poland or Belarus in protest... which means direct supply to Germany and Turkey make a lot of sense being a country that can say no to the EU and NATO and a country that can also say no to NATO and is not even in the EU.

The point is that gas piped to Turkey will give a lot of economic and political power to Turkey... but that likely wont be for 2-3 years yet.

I see S-400 systems have been delivered to Russian forces early, so an early delivery of Turkish systems would be very useful too...

Worst scenario is for some reason the US wins and the Europeans cut all gas pipelines to Russia and have to pay much much more for LNG from the US (it would hardly make sense to stop piped gas from Russia and replace it in defiance with more expensive LNG from Russia even if it is cheaper than from the US).

So the costs of production and heating go up in the EU... I am sure Japan would consider a gas pipeline... cheaper energy would not hurt their economy.

Probably the easiest solution from the Russian point of view in this worst case scenario would be to sell it all to Turkey and let Turkey sell to the EU... now if Erdogan was smart he would cooperate with Syria and encourage gas pipelines through Syria to Turkey from Iran and potentially other states in the ME and then they could pipe gas to the EU from Russia and Iran and be the gas kings of the EU... Don't get involved in internal problems... once the gas enters the EU it wont be Turkeys problem... make that clear in the agreements... any stealing gas is not Turkeys problem.... Gas can be negotiated for all of the EU and pumped... what the EU countries do with it then is not Turkeys problem.

Or they could stick to their guns and just hang on to Idlib and keep a war torn shit hole that will never develop and grow... it will just be a war torn Afghanistan like sht hole, where groups can get armed and trained and radicalised... and of course maintain hostile relations with Assad with his new improved military and of course a hostile Russia.

That would probably also blow the S-400 deal too, but America will be happy... or is Trump the sort to bear a grudge and look forward to the economic problems looming for Turkey... in the hope that they can have another go of getting Erdogan into prison and their own puppet into power...

Perhaps Erdogans best chance is a mega loan from China and some financial support from Russia to get them through this... they make parts for the F-35 and have some very high technology capabilities... perhaps they... I was going to suggest getting together with India to develop an export oriented Su-57, but I doubt they want to wait that long or talk that much, so perhaps a Turkish Su-30MKI variant of the Su-57... where the bits Russia is not ready to export yet could be French or Turkish... and of course anything the Turks want to add could be put in the mix too... their might be interest from some EU nations who don't want to spend 100 million an F-35... Su-57MKT.

OK... a little off topic... but important considerations for Russia in Syria too...

Remember Putin has to come up with new counters to all these sanctions the US has been imposing, and he doesn't want to hurt Russian interests... so for example banning the sale of rocket engines to the US only makes sense if there is an alternative customer to buy them... So Iran and North Korea spring to mind...

But what could he do regarding Turkey where Russia is not penalised but the US is pissed off?

Small point Garry, it has been reported that BAE are working with Turkey on a possible stealth fighter.

The PR of the Northern Fleet have reported that the Russian naval group in the Med have successfully completed all kinds of exercises.

"RUSSIA TO HOLD NAVAL DRILLS NEAR SYRIA INVOLVING 25 WARSHIPS AND 30 AIRCRAFT."

Russia will hold naval drills in the Mediterranean Sea, near Syria, in the period from September 1 to September 8, the Russian Defense Ministry announced on August 30.

The drills will involve 25 warships led by the Marshal Ustinov missile cruiser and 30 aircraft, including “the strategic Tu-160 missile-carrying bombers, the Tu-142MK and Il-38 anti-submarine warfare planes, Su-33 fighter jets and Su-30SM aircraft of naval aviation”.

The defense ministry said that “the grouping will practice a set of tasks of air defense, anti-submarine and anti-sabotage warfare and also mine counter-measures support”.

The areas covered by the drills will be declared dangerous for navigation and flights in advance in order to ensure the safety of shipping and flights.


https://southfront.org/russia-to-hold-naval-drills-near-syria-involving-25-warships-and-30-aircraft/

Small point Garry, it has been reported that BAE are working with Turkey on a possible stealth fighter.

But BAE would never work with Russia... and I suspect less delays with a joint Russia Turkey stealth fighter because the Russian stealth fighter is about to enter service, whereas any Turkish BAE craft might be based on the good parts of the F-35 but I would suggest is less solid.

The other question is... who is going to be using it... BAE are UK based and leaving the EU so I doubt they would want to annoy the US that much... especially as they likely make parts for the F-35 so they would be competing against themselves.

A Russian Turkish fighter could be an option for EU members who don't want American, but want stealth and not too expensive stealth...

Su-33 fighter jets and Su-30SM aircraft of naval aviation

Good capacity for Air to Air missiles... also interesting that the Su-33s are still there despite lack of the carrier... so navy pilots are still getting experience... that is good too.

Their primary function would be to blunt mass anti ship missile attacks on ships... so this should be useful for them.

GarryB wrote:Another factor is that EU demand for Russian gas is likely to increase... not decrease, yet some claim they already have plenty of capacity already...

The actual problem is that the Ukraine is an unreliable supplier and lets be honest if Russia cut off supply through the Ukraine right now the EU is likely to say they will cut off supplies via Poland or Belarus in protest... which means direct supply to Germany and Turkey make a lot of sense being a country that can say no to the EU and NATO and a country that can also say no to NATO and is not even in the EU.

The point is that gas piped to Turkey will give a lot of economic and political power to Turkey... but that likely wont be for 2-3 years yet.

This is a non-sense.

The EU can not cut the gas supplies by Poland and leave the gas supply by the Nord Stream 1/2. And as commented the Nord Stream 1/2 assures the supply to all the countries to the West of Germany, Austria and Italy (the 3 included).

If Poland is idiot enough can cut themselves the transit, and even their own imports. It is their option. The European Union would not be involved in that, and even inverse transit from Germany to Poland would not be possible if it means that Germany must cut the gas transit to the UK, France, Italy or other countries in order to give it to Poland. No-one in Europe is interested in gas supplies from Turkey.

If Poland and Ukraine try to block the transit to the Balkans, the Turkish Stream supplies toward Europe would have available the pipeline share that has been suppliying gas to Turkey and to other countries of the Balkans in lower amounts by Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria (inverse transit). This is the alone potential of exporting of the Turkish Stream.

You are writing a lot of non-sense about the gas supplies from Russia to Europe. Neither Russia and the European Union want obstables, and wanna be smart gas strategists in between. This is why the Nord Stream 2 is going forward solidly.

From Medo's post in Su-35 thread


Picture of Idlib town made by Irbis radar from Su-35. Resolution is 1 square meter.

Now that is impressive.

You are writing a lot of non-sense about the gas supplies from Russia to Europe. Neither Russia and the European Union want obstables, and wanna be smart gas strategists in between. This is why the Nord Stream 2 is going forward solidly.

But that is the problem... you are acting like Europe and Russia are two parties.. Germany might be keen to get a reliable secure supply of cheap Russian gas, but Bulgaria would rather block a south stream pipeline they would have earned transit fees on that piss off the US, and Poland just hates Russia and would do anything to hurt them... including block transit through her territory.

The whole point of Nord Stream 2 and the South Stream pipelines going to Turkey is to bypass the problem states... the Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria.

Ideally the Russians want to stop transport via the Ukraine, but I can guarantee NATO and the EU wont accept that... even though the transit fees the Ukraine gets comes from gas moving through their pipes is basically paid for by the european customers that eventually receive the product, Europe still wants Russia to subsidise the Ukraine because if it collapses it will be their problem.

I rather suspect to deal with fears and anxiety Putin will instruct Gazprom to pump some gas through the Ukraine so they get some fees, but I doubt it will ever run to capacity.

Regarding other pipelines I believe some are not allowed to run at full capacity, but this restriction has been lifted... but even so these two new pipelines will likely go ahead. And if they don't... the pipelines to China are nearly complete... and Russia can still produce LNG and ship it to Europe cheaper than the US can.

The pipeline through Turkey will give it some muscle in talks with the EU and NATO... they might change their attitude if the alternative is paying 4 or 5 times more for energy...

BTW too much off topic... any further discussion of gas pipelines needs to go in a relevant thread and not here thanks...

Exercice of russian navy in mediyeranean sea.

Have been checking news about Syria ,in alternative websites.. and there are reports
from people that claims ,that israeli news channels on internet are saying American and British special forces are trapped in Idlib ,probably the city Russia and Syrian army wants to capture.. If this is true ,this could explain the histeria of US ,UK and France about not taking IDLIB... also US and British Special forces there pose a major threat
to Russia military base.. they could lead drone attacks on their base from there.

In more information there is major blackout on Syria , and reports of Russia and Syria bombing IDLIB
in saturday left and right to target NATO backed terrorist there.. and also reports of major infighting between
terrorist in Idlib ,consequence of Russia and Syrian assault ? it could be if some terrorist wants to negotiate
and exit to Turkey with their godfather erdogan.. and others if wants to fight to the last man.. This happened
before in the liberation of eastern Ghouta.. Some terrorist wanted to surrender but their leaders not.. and wanted to fight to the last man.. so they split and began to fight each other.. in order to save their necks ,knowing
the zero chance they had to defeat Russia airforce with a major Syrian army invasion.. So many reports of
commanders killed from ALnusra ,by Russia combat planes and some other leaders killed by infighting.. between Islamic sectarian sunni terrorist groups..

Last but not least..
We are in September 9 .. just 2 days for September 11 . the day Bush Attacked its own country in
a major false flag incident. So knowing how the US military behave ,they like to send messages using special
dates or numbers.. they use a lot psicological warfare.  It will not be rare if they choose September 11 to stage the chemical attack.. a false flag.. in such operations it could happen with faked death of children , and faked chemicals as was Damascus chemical previous attack.. but false flag can also be done with real terrorism ,with real people killed and the evidence all rigged so that Russia and SYria is blamed for it.

The next 48 hours will be critical , for Syria..  you also have Erdogan the king of the terrorist in idlib ,trying to torpedo the operation against Alqaeda in Idlib.. So a world war 3 or temporary shooting between Russia and NATO with Soldiers killed from both sides, could happen in the next few days . or next week.

Vann7 wrote:Have been checking news about Syria ,in alternative websites....

There's your problem

Vann7 wrote:....
and there are reports from people that claims ,that israeli news channels on internet are saying American and British special forces are trapped in Idlib .....

Just like they were trapped in Aleppo, Darra, Ghuta and every single other place in Syria?

Vann7 wrote:....
We are in September 9 .. just 2 days for September 11 . the day Bush Attacked its own country in
a major false flag incident. .......

I noticed this part purely by accident but oh boy this is some Inception level stuff....

This has been going on for some time now. Although we don't know what news systems apart from strelets (not known if sa-24 or verba version). It's highly likely that the new systems might actually not be new per say but rather systems that Russia had storage such as S-125, kub, Osa, sa-13, sa-5 to replace those lost due to air strikes. Although there is mention of expertise training and modernisation but to what standard I don't know,  could it be just the well known upgrades or possibly something new. S-125 I know had an upgrade package to help it target missiles and also  I remember reading that the kub had an upgrade where it was armed with surface to air version of R-77 it would be interesting if Russia did this upgrade. Majority of soviet designed equipment was designed to shoot down aircraft rather than various missiles and yet if we go by what Russia and Syria say that there systems haven't done that bad at shooting down some missiles. Although as people have mentioned that some of these may have been due to Russian EW and a big part is probably down to Russian radar etc. Anyone know are further details on upgradesor new equipment.




Russia is helping Syria restore and modernized its air defense system, Russia’s Ambassador to that country, Alexander Kinshchak, told TASS on Friday.

“We are helping our Syrian partners to restore, modernize and boost the efficiency of the integrated air defense system,” he said when asked how well Syria is protected against possible airstrikes by Western nations.

“Much is yet to be done because everything was in utter devastation, but certain results can already be seen,” he said.

in late April, chief of the main operations directorate of the Russian General Staff, Sergei Rudskoi, said that Syria would soon receive new air defense systems and promised that Russian specialists would help the Syrian military to master them. He refrained from details of the systems, saying only that the S-125, Osa and Kvadrat systems used by the Syrian army had been restored and modernized with Russia’s assistance.



https://mobile.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-is-helping-syria-bolster-their-air-defense/