Russian military intervention and aid to Syria #14

kvs wrote:

JohninMK wrote:

magnumcromagnon wrote:"#Russia TV runs footage showing how #Putin made #Turkey's President #Erdogan wait in frustration in Kremlin before greeting him while cameras rolling.

Y.N.M.S
@ynms79797979
·
1h
Russian lack of respect, says Turkish foreign minister, on video of Putin's reception of Erdogan in Moscow

These clowns should be thankful that they are not treated like the scum they are.   The Turks are allies of the jihadi
terrorists infesting Syria and engage in joint operations with them.   So Turkey is not only a terrorist sponsor, it is
a direct terrorism participant as well.   Naturally it is also an illegal invader and occupier in northern Syria.

No wonder Arabs and Iranians hate Erdogan.

The russian formation in Syria could wipe out the turkish and indeed all foreign forces in Syria in an matter of hours, but this would lead to a counter-strike and so on until some murican retard would use some tactical nuclear weapons and after that we all would become nuclear waste.

So far, the addition of jamming pods, off the shelf, to Syrian / Russian aircraft makes sense. Since Russia will not engage in AA combat and did not fire back with long range missiles against F16. Passive defence. So I see no point in updating a SU 24 with new radar and engine to become interceptor. What for?  If Russia and Syria can retaliate against drones with existing SAM.  But with better training and with IR guided MANPAD.  For enemy aircraft firing missiles, cheaper to disable the airfield and ground support. Both will result in a mess of either dead pilot and crashed plane or dead ground crew on enemy soil. But the second option cheaper. And keeps our Radar secret and AA secrets.

nomadski wrote:
So far, the addition of jamming pods, off the shelf, to Syrian / Russian aircraft makes sense. Since Russia will not engage in AA combat and did not fire back with long range missiles against F16. So I see no point in updating a SU 24 with new radar and engine to become interceptor. What for?  If Russia allows and Syria can retaliate against drones with existing SAM.  But with better training and compliment with IR guided MANPAD.  For enemy aircraft firing missiles, cheaper to disable the airfield and ground support. Both will result in a mess of either dead pilot and crashed plane or dead ground crew. But the second option cheaper. And keeps our Radar secret and AA secrets.

Russia engages aircraft with Su-35 and Su-30. Which is their purpose.

Even so, the size of the diplomatic mess is no smaller. If F16 shot over IDLIB or Turkey. But SU 35 expensive to loose. NATO provides many more to Turkey. As Trump said, he will supply ( unlimited) AMRAAMS.  So not smart to stick to this method. I think cheaper to destroy airfield. Not risk pilot or expensive planes or secret missiles. The size of the political mess is the same. The cost is less.

If NATO, wanted to, then it would side with Turkey. Irrespective of the finer points of article 5. The fact that they did not proves they are impotent against the resistance axis. Face it, European EU, countries are falling apart over fishing rights in North Sea. Do we think, they can stick together, over war with Russia? They are paper Tiger.

nomadski wrote:
Even so, the size of the diplomatic mess is no smaller. If F16 shot over IDLIB or Turkey. But SU 35 expensive to loose. NATO provides many more to Turkey. As Trump said, he will supply ( unlimited) AMRAAMS.  So not smart to stick to this method. I think cheaper to destroy airfield. Not risk pilot or expensive planes or secret missiles. The size of the political mess is the same.

You seem to not know how this stuff works.

If it was shot down over idlib, that wont change anything. Shot over Turkey, then yes. Also, because they can supply all the missiles they want, they wont replace all the jets they need. Also take into consideration is how much Turkey can pay for. And US wont hand it over for free. Nothing is free.

But believe whatever you want. Russia calls your bluff by providing Su-35's and their respective AAM's. It is now up to Turkey to see who will blink first and my bet would be Turkey seeing as how their F-16's have backed down multitude of times.

Maybe you are right. If F16 shot over IDLIB, then no big deal. But Turkey soil different. But I think will not matter much. In both cases news report is the same. But as you say perhaps all the Russians need to do, is what they do over North Sea, with British planes. Fly wing tip to wing tip, and take photo and go home!

Does not solve problem of F16, shooting from Turkey soil, at Syrian planes. If passive defence does not work. Then from the two alternatives, destroying airfield is still better option. Or take out Radar. Little or no human casualty. Turkey does not have to even report it. Same with road into Syria. Could be made impassable.

JohninMK wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:  And US wont hand it over for free.  Nothing is free.

It can indeed be 'free' if the then 'gift' fits US strategic objectives or even if it just fits the plans of an agency of the US. Like all the stuff handed over to the jihadists or even Ukraine.

The 'payment' is what the US then gets in non tangible benefits, like more angst between Turkey and Russia or Turkey and Syria.

Missiles MAYBE and they wouldn't be new either.

F-16 planes? Yeah, that wont happen.  Maybe old ones that can barely fly.

nomadski wrote:Maybe you are right. If F16 shot over IDLIB, then no big deal. But Turkey soil different. But I think will not matter much. In both cases news report is the same. But as you say perhaps all the Russians need to do, is what they do over North Sea, with British planes. Fly wing tip to wing tip, and take photo and go home!

Does not solve problem of F16, shooting from Turkey soil, at Syrian planes. If passive defence does not work. Then from the two alternatives, destroying airfield is still better option.

Ehhhh nah I dont think so. It would be less confrontational to shoot the plane over Turkey than it would be to blow up the airfield. Blowing up the airfield would prevent more of those jets from flying but the death on the ground would be massive compared to what, 1 to 2 deaths per plane?

But yes, the real threat is Turkey or Israel shooting from either within their borders or from borders of other states at Syria.

Russians will escalate totally the war if Turks attack them and if they have signs that NATO will support them.

They have their long range aviation waiting with kh-101 and all the new ships in black sea and Caspian are probably full with kalibr.

That's the 2nd NATO army at their borders. They will take out their force the faster they can. I already posted the list of turkish air bases. They have like 10 of them home of f16 that will be targeted by cruise missiles and fighters will be destroyed on the ground by the Hmeimim aviation.

Also if they don't destroy the navy/air force, turks will have the advantage over the Bosphorus and will close it to the russian ships. Without an air force/navy, they will be always threaten by russian air force if they try to close it.

No one wants to escalate things between them. Turkey will still make their attempts but that will be it.

Russia has the ability to neutralize Turkey's air power and navy power from at home airspace while Turkey does not have same capabilities.

But I dont think we will ever know due to majority of people in military command are more level headed than we are.

@Miketheterrible

I am not sure about massive casualty by missile strike. Runway could be cratered. The Iranian attack on yank base in Iraq, had no fatalities. Because of prior warning. Also radar dish itself has no people on it. But apart from this. Then other target could be TV and radio antennae. The population already dislike war. And minor inconvenience will be great disadvantage to Erdo ambitions in Syria. Electricity pylon down. No power for few hours. No casualty either. Advantage that Syria can claim attacks by missile. Russia stays clear. At first, one base can be hit. If they escalate, then more bases. Then TV. Then electricity line. I think they will soon stop. All this, better than killing pilot. Loosing plane. Giving away frequency of missile. Getting Russia involved.......... Making profit for texas instruments and Boeing....

When Usrael first attacked Syria, after the start of civil war. I said no retaliation. Because in the mind of the Usrael citizen, there was the idea that Iran was immediate threat to Usrael. And therefore Syria should be bombed. I said retaliate against Usrael government. But after so many years, it is now clear to Usrael citizen, that Iran no immediate threat to Usrael. And bombing Syria perhaps wrong. Yes even Usrael citizen have a natural sense of justice. So now, if there is proportionate retaliation by Syria. They won't mind so much as to push for further war. In fact they will resist further war against Syria. The limit of understanding has been reached.

I have said before that, if Yanks start war on Iran. That if Iran waits, and shows no attacks against yank mainland, for a while. Then yank citizen will see the injustice of their government. And if in this case, Iran makes a symbolic strike and destroys statue of liberty. That the population will tolerate and not push for more war. In fact they may push for peace.The case in point was killing of Iranian General on peace mission. Everyone knew the injustice of this attack. And when Iran retaliated, no yank citizen shouted for escalation . They accepted. Because the limit of understanding had been reached. Even if the retaliation had killed a few hundred Yanks. Still the population would have accepted it.

The same reasoning now for Turkey or Usrael or Yank oil thieves in East Syria. The limit of understanding has been reached. There is a sense of natural justice. Retaliatory self defence is natural right for all creatures.

some major important points...

- we don't know for sure ,whether russia electronic jamming or turkey jamming worked or not ,we have reports from both sides how successful their side was in countering the other side .

- i have read reports from yms twiiter who appears to have close inside info from SAA that Russia was using them..

- there is evidence of manipulated videos released by turkey military ,of turkey drones defeating easily pantsirs..
  but that later turned to be models ,used by UAE and not by syria.. so likely videos from lybia used as proof
  of turkey drone campaign success.

-The SAA facebook page is on record saying Turkey videos are largely exagerrated and that the pantsirs in the video are not theirs.. but footage from lybia..  so if turkey military need to use fake videos ,to proof their drones
success. then a big question mark had to be made on any releasing footage by turkey... they have shown commitment to even lie ,in order to raise the morale of its military.. so turkey video massacring saa at least the some of the pantsir footage is confirmed fake.. not from syria.. and tanks and artillery destroyed could be from syria or lybia or iraq ,and from any time . part of the videos could be fake or all of it perhaps? nobody knows.

- the question of whether russia electronic jamming worked or not vs Tukey F-16 nato amraam missiles..
we will never know it for sure , based on media reports alone.  what is however important to understand,
that for russia is not a good idea to warn their enemies of their vulnerabilities of their weapons..and planes and their weakness..  because that will allow them to correct their mistakes and improve their missiles later..

If it happened , that russian electronic warfare had the upper hand, the ideal way for russia is to jam the missiles and stay quiet about it .. and not let their enemies to know ,their missiles are now obsolete against Russian airforce armed with electronic defense.

So if i was in russia minister of defense shoes.. and knew that a limited war with turkey was going to happen, then i will make sure to test as many defensive and offensive weapons i can against their military ,i will hire at least 2 russian well trained pilots  ,to fly 2 big syrian old planes , and tell them to bait turkey airforce to fire their AIM-120 AMRAAM  missiles... and the first one without electronic defense. only armed with modern decoys and flares,, and the second one armed with electronic defense.. and order them to fly only above SAA controlled territory.  so if the planes shot down ,the pilots who eject can be rescue.. such kind of test will be worthy of sacrifice an su-24 plane.. because it allows Russia to understand if their electronic defenses works or not , so shoigu will be a fool if he don't create conditions for americans modern weapons being used against their planes..
the information learned will be worth of gold and save many lives ,and could make the difference into avoiding
nasty surprises in case one day Russian airforce ,need to face the american one.  so far the ideal conditions appears to be in place.. 3 planes flew over SAA controlled territory , 2 were shotdown apparenly and pilots in both of them ejected safely.. and third plane escaped. so that said , even if we don't know the official story ,
the possibilities the claims that the jamming happened are real...because things were for testing russia electronic warfare.. it will be unthinkable ,that russia did not used electronic warfare not a single time ,to help SAA or their own planes and base ,to protect russian soldiers and syrian military.

what is clear however for me.. is the the russian defense ministry ,was bragging on sputnik ,that... there will be no more turkey drones for now.. . he told that , the day ,was reported on twiiter that turkey lost at least
5 drones..  so if i were to bet.. Russian air defenses did worked and did their job quite well ,at least that day..

When it comes to defending airspace.. this is never easy thing to do.. because of the many tactics that can be used to defeat air defenses.. like old but proven saturation attacks.. it will always work.. if you have 5 bullets in a gun ,you can only kill 5 terrorist with the gun.. not 6.  and pantsirs needs reloading each time fire 12 missiles?..
is their vulnerable time.  also exist decoys to fool missiles into a miss.. and also electronic warfare and so elevated hill and mountains, flying low, can be used to hide planes and drones from radars..
last but not least air defenses to work the way it should be , they should be used at their maximun range
and push enemies far away of positions.. you want to defend.. allowing them to get close is a mistake ,and
the syrian geography and position the SAA is fighting ,is a major disadvantage ,the more close they are to turkey border.. Air defenses are not supposed to be used as purely defensive only and enemy planes needs to be pushed far away ,so they can't even try ..

this means ,that if ERdogan really goes full retard..and declare war on russia.. he can just send a raid of 50 planes on russia air base.. and strike at the base first with dozens of artillery cross border ,and follow it with
a salvo attack of those many planes.. and eventually the all air defenses there will be overwhelmed.. is not a
technology issue ,but a design issue.. that Russian base in syria is not designed to stop the entire turkey airforce in an attack.. Syria theater ,is the worst place in the world to deploy s-400s and s-300s  ,patriots or s-500s or anything.. is simply too close to enemy borders and any nato self propelled artillery can reach it.. or any major strike airforce groups can overwhelm it..  is a miracle russia haven't lost an s-300s yet.. or an s-400.
if it happens, it will not be the air defenses to blame.. but the region that Russian base is deployed is nearly
impossible to fully protect,.. so close to turkey border...   just look at US base in iraq.. they could not even intercept 12 missiles.. fired by iran..


update..
according to russian defense ministry.. the claims
by turkey over destroyed pantsirs are not correct..

https://southfront.org/russia-calls-erdogan-claims-about-8-pantsir-systems-destroyed-in-syria-fake/

On March 10, the Russian Defense Ministry commented on recent claims by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that Turkish forces had destroyed 8 Russian-made Pantsir air defense systems operated by the Syrian Armed Forces. The destruction, Erdogan said, during the active phase of Turkey’s Operation Spring Shield.


In its comment on these claims, the Russian military said that the number provided is “more than overestimation” (i.e. fake). According to the Russians, data received by the Turkish leader on the combat effectiveness of the use of strike UAVs in Idlib province are untrue.

Moscow recalled that the main air defense means and measures of the Syrian military, including Pantsir air defense systems, have been and remain focused primarily on the area of the country’s capital, Damascus. There were only 4 Pantsir air defense systems deployed in Greater Idlib, the defense ministry said adding that 2 of them were in fact demaged. Currently, the damaged systems are undergoing repair works.

So erdogan claimed he destroyed 8 pantsirs.. the Russian defense ministry says that it was “more than overestimation”... so they basically said it was propaganda Erdogan claims.. but admitted 2 pantsirs are under reparation..

so either ,2 pantsirs were hit and partially disable.. it could be by drones or by artillery shelling that they are vulnerable.. or it could be the Russian defense ministry just throwing a bone to Erdogan ,to not humiliate them
and so told ,2 of them are under repairs.. my best guess is that 2 pantsirs possibly were damaged by turkey artillery. they could have done that using turkey outpost and artillery shelling.. pantsirs were not designed to
shield any place from mortar artillery.. you need lazer defenses for that. it shouldnt be hard for turkey to disable pantsirs when they have outpost with artillery withing range of syria airdefenses. like i said before , Syria is the most extreme scenario possible ,specially idlib ,to deploy any kind of air defense.. because any air defenses in idlib will be withing artillery range always. from any turkey outpost.. and so it is Russian base too.

Yes agree. You can never fully protect a country by pure defensive tactics. Using air defences. It is impossible. Look at this attack in the following link. Can not protect by firing S300. Absurd. Must hit back. No other way. Russia or Iran can strike back. But they won't. Not their country. Syria can and must strike back. To survive.

https://apnews.com/42ab725fcfa444e4ac143f99dc30b82b

nomadski wrote:
Yes agree. You can never fully protect a country by pure defensive tactics. Using air defences. It is impossible. Look at this attack in the following link. Can not protect by firing S300. Absurd. Must hit back.  No other way. Russia or Iran can strike back. But they won't. Not their country. Syria can and must strike back. To survive.

https://apnews.com/42ab725fcfa444e4ac143f99dc30b82b

There is nothing preventing you from coming to Russsia, getting residency and joining the army. Perhaps then President Putin will listen to you, at this time it seems the president is busy stopping wars and removing the bad guys from Idlib amongst other places.

Some more Pantsirs.

George1 wrote:decoys?

Yes.

I don't think they are good decoys. If they use old truck with some transformation they could move them around easily. They could even add a hidden antenna that send signals in the same frequencies as pantsir to atract anti radiation missiles.

It's not a big deal to find some 500 trucks. They should ask sebian help.

Actually there is a heat source that simulates the engine. With camouflage net on top the thing looks quite real on camera, IIR and radar.

Russian Military Delegation to Push Turkey to Respect Syrian Sovereignty

"The Russian military has a clear goal of guaranteeing Syria’s sovereignty and demanding that Turkey respect it unconditionally," Ivashov said.
He said the delegation will take a tough line in the negotiations with the Turkish military. Russia and Turkey used to be partners in political talks on Syria but never evolved into military allies, he noted.

The military talks follow a summit in Moscow last week between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Tayyip Erdogan.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202003091078519723-russian-military-delegation-to-push-turkey-to-respect-syrian-sovereignty/


So there is no lavrov there..no diplomacy ,but an ultimatum to turkey military ... it will be very interesting meeting and if the reports above are accurate it will be an ultimatum to turkey to respect unconditionally the territorial integrity of Russia.. or else will have to know that Russia will be fully backing syria to restart the war.. and push back alqaeda , and anyone caught aiding it from syria.


From the military point of view, the previous ceasefire was an unfinished victory , and this can be problematic
for Russia ,in case a major conflict start with US ,over missiles in europe or worsening in relations , they will
prefer to face turkey Alone now in a limited conflict now , than to face it later.. when a major conflict with americans Start  .  this means that the Russian military was not in any way happy with putin negotiations with
erdogan and now are correcting the problem...

in my opinion , the russian military will create new rules of engagement and draw new lines in syria ,where their
airforce will be fighting..  they will demand turkey to retreat from all territories under M4 highway.. and not target syria while capturing it.. and all territories in latakia too , but including [jisr AL Shughur] city ,that is the gate to latakkia coast.. where Russian base is located.  also will likely war to turkey ,that will respond with fire
any turkey position that attack their airforce with manpads , and there is no way russia will allow air defenses
of turkey deployed in syria.. will be destroyed because threaten their planes ,and also likely will be told ,that if
turkey is given patriot defenses and use it against russian planes.. that they will destroyed.. even if they are
across the border.  basically Russian military will draw lines erdogan and his military can't cross... and like i said..
for the Russian military will be better to fight a war against turkey now , that they are alone.. and not properly armed , to counter Russia ,than to fight a war later ,when they are busy in a major war with US.

For Russian armed forces ,if a limited war with turkey can't be avoided.. then the russian general staff will
prefer to continue the operation to clear all idlib by the use of force ,even if risk a limited war with turkey now
,because they are in a weak alone ,than to fight it months /years later while facing a war with americans at the same time.  now trump is busy in elections ..and will be game over for his presidency and re-election.. and  now is the more manageable time for Russia to engage turkey in a limited fight..

about decoys.. topic..
Russia have decoys of S-400s too and S-300s.. no idea why took them so long to start using those dummy
decoys.. it will confuse nato satellites ,of the real accurate positions of russia air defenses.. they could deploy 10x dummies near the same positions of pantsirs and s-400s and s-300s.

Hole wrote:Actually there is a heat source that simulates the engine. With camouflage net on top the thing looks quite real on camera, IIR and radar.

But it doesn't move and doesn't emit any radar signal.

A truck with metal pannels is IMO better for such job. It also has an engine that can provide power for a dummy radar and a heat source.

Isos wrote:

Hole wrote:Actually there is a heat source that simulates the engine. With camouflage net on top the thing looks quite real on camera, IIR and radar.

But it doesn't move and doesn't emit any radar signal.

A truck with metal pannels is IMO better for such job. It also has an engine that can provide power for a dummy radar and a heat source.

thats not correct ..

this dummies are not just toys designed in a children company..
they are designed by scientist and engineers to simulate the real thing.. they also emit similar radar emissions
like the real thing and produce similar heat signature too.. the russians are not stupid dude.. putin is stupid.. but the military is not. Also the decoys are designed to look identical from radars..in space like the real thing. and identical in heat signature.



unfortunately the decoys will not work well if they are static, versus tv guided glide bombs.. or remove controlled drones with camera,if they can visually target the moving ones firing missiles and ignore the static ones.. the drones will have to be upgraded with tubes that launch fake ultra cheap rockets.. designed by Pyrotechnics companies , that fire toy rockets in the air ,that looks real .to confuse drones and tv guided glide bombs.. that should be difficult to do . electronic warfare will have to be used to disable the remote controlled part.. so that enemies not allowed to visually pick their targets.

the above video shows from enough distance the dummies look real thing.. a plane flying 5km altitude to avoid
manpads will for sure not notice the difference ,if they covered by camouflage it will be even more difficult
to differentiate from the real ones covered by same thing. .
watch the video and later thank me for the music..

as bonus chinese also doing dummies too..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvqgZc5vfBU

but all this dummy tech ,will become less and less viable versus tv guided glide bombs or drones allowed to fly
close with a remote controlled camera.. any trained person with enough time ,will just target the ones that are firing missiles.. so the decoys will need to be upgraded to simulate firing too.. with smoke and all that ..

ill rather prefer they cover better their airspace ,than rely in decoys.. but for nations with a low budget in their military like syria might be a good option..to use them. ..

Thousands of hunters get shot around the world that don't look anything like the game the person who shot them was looking for...

Sitting in those pictures in a nice close up it is easy to tell these are blown up decoys, but from a distance and with camo netting and it is a different story.

For those claiming it wont have the same radar signature as the real thing... all the footage we have seen from Israeli sources show optically guided weapons taking them on so why would radar signature mean anything?

The weapons directed at the Pantsirs don't seem to be ARMs or radar guided weapons... in terms of cost a blown up balloon should be cheaper than any truck... you should be able to use hundreds or thousands for the cost of the real truck let alone the real Pantsir. A camping stove can generate a heat source if needed...

Did you notice.... these decoys don't have missiles... which is ideal... it is not just pretending to be a Pantsir... it is pretending to be a Pantsir that is out of missiles... where have we seen that before?