Armenian wrote:While I personally don't like Nikol Pashinyan, narrative that he is a guy of EU is totally wrong. During the last two years he continued to keep balanced relations with both blocks. Armenia with a small fragile economy needs support from EU. It's nothing new.
That being said Armenia continued acting according to the Russia interests. We took the whole Ukraine against us because we supported Russia, now they are acting with Azeris. We have been the first and only country aside Russia which sent it's military to Syria, taking the whole West against us. Again.
Armenian people loves and respects Russia but if in a time of need Russia is going to sacrifice Armenia to Turkic/Jihadi block just because they want to have a puppet leader, you can definitely expect very anti Russia population in near future. We are proud people, we don't ask Russia to come and fight for us.
But not even making a statement after Armenia itself is attacked?
I just wanted to share this as someone who lives in Armenia. The idea of punishing Nikol will drive Armenians from Russia causing Russia to lose Armenia after Ukraine and Georgia.
It's still not late, here in Armenia people still believe in Russia.
I doubt there's going to be any sort of sacrifice to NATO Turkey and its Jihadists. Everyone who's anyone understands what's at stake even though no-one says it openly.
And people also understand that having Turkey, which commited a genocide against Armenians a century ago, now fight Azerbaijan's war for it using flying killer robots and Syrian terrorists is not acceptable either.
The issue of Pashinyan is a tactical one, Moscow is not going to sacrifice the Armenian people because of it, just try and get leverage over him.
Officially, Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. And they've done much better PR work in Russia than Armenians have, with their oil money. Azeri oligarchs are tightly mixed in with Russian ones, Aliyev's daughter lives in Moscow and she and the whole clan are members of high society. In fact all of the Azeri upper class and plenty of its middle class maintain links with Russian society and own property there. Plenty of prominent Azeris in the Russian business, cultural, etc... spheres.
You have Armenians as well in politics and the media, but they themselves don't seem to be that tied to Armenia or any of its ruling families; like Simonyan, who even took sides against Armenia not long ago for the revolution there.
The Azeri intelligencia have always prized the Russian language, connections with Russia and have used it to put across their point of view, in the Caucasus and the rest of Russia.
Azeri propaganda is everywhere, about Armenia turning pro-West, about Armenians occupying Sochi and Krasnodar Krai, soon declaring northern Armenia there. They're helped by various panturks and assorted nationalists. Already in Baskhiria which has undergone serious protests over the last several months - there have been attempts at provocations against Armenians, the ruling head of the republic is fast becoming unpopular, and his wife is Armenian which is increasingly being used as a propaganda point. Nevertheless I think the situation there is under control, nationalist sentiment is there but it's tempered by internationalism and the desire of the Bashkirs to gain support from the rest of Russia for their uprising.
As a result the attitude of the average Russian who knows nothing about the situation and conflict is either - just make peace somehow and stop the killing, or fk it let them all vacate Moscow from both sides and fight down there.
But nevertheless Russia is going to have to step in more openly. One can assume that Armenians are making full use of Russian intel, radar, satellite coverage that they get as a benefit of CSTO membership.
In the preceding months there were as many joint military exercises between Russia and Armenia as there were between Turkey and Azerbaijan. So this tells you all you need to know about the true alliance structure.
Many of the Russian border guards and personnel of the military base in Armenia are ethnic Armenians. Who knows they might be going on vacation already.
But more needs to be done; the level of supply of Turkey and Israel to Azerbaijan is upsetting the balance and needs to be countered, at a minimum. Even if Russia also needs to maintain ties with and influence over Azerbaijan, to prevent them falling under the Turks completely. Already one of the Azeri generals has been removed at Turkish insistence, over having too many ties to Moscow.
Hence why no public statements of Moscow against Azerbaijan.
The aim should be a ceasefire then some sort of peace settlement; but not one that would in any way leave the Armenian populated districts of NKR at the behest of Baku; they have to be linked to Armenia proper. Everything else can and should be negotiable I think.
I'm no expert but I don't think Armenia has a serious claim to the territory in between for example, the former district of Red Kurdistan, from where all the Kurds and Azeris were expelled in the 90s, even if that land was Armenian at some point in history. It's just held by Armenia now mainly for reasons of defense.
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