2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

All the rest is non-sense.

Current setup is completely unsustainable

Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it

PapaDragon wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

All the rest is non-sense.

Current setup is completely unsustainable

Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it

Well in theory, also the position of Azerbaijan is unsustainable. That territory was only assigned to the azeri ssr because of some decision from the soviet leadership. As they decided to declare independence from soviet union, some parts of their territories can also declare independence from them.

Or, if autodermination is not allowed in this case the land should go to the owner before the Soviets rule, the russian empire...and the legitimate successor state to both the Russian empire and the soviet union is the Russian Federation

 Only later to let Turks through territory of Armenia.

Russia may take E. Georgia to get land corridor to Amenia, killing 2 birds with 1 stone: destabilizing Tbilisi, preventing NATO boots there & in Amenia in large #s, & improving Armenia's defences.

Nagorno-Karabakh Fighting Escalates, Toll Rises
	Biden: Trump Should Get Involved With Nagorno-Karabakh Talks   Azerbaijan Bought $77m of Arms From Turkey Month Before Fighting   Nagorno-Karabakh and Mounting US/EU Pressure on the Kremlin

	Kremlin Calls for Immediate Halt to Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh
	Armenia, Azerbaijan Tensions Rise Amid Claims of New Attacks
	Azerbaijan Says Hit Missile Launch Sites in Armenia
	Putin Expresses Concerns to Erdogan About Middle East Fighters in Karabakh Clashes
	Nagorno-Karabakh Says Death Toll Among Its Military Rises to 555 Since Start of Conflict

https://iz.ru/1073848/elnar-bainazarov/knut-i-preniia-chem-chrevato-turetckoe-predlozhenie-po-karabakhu

This needs to be sorted out properly without the threat or use of violence, which is why the current situation is bad and useless, because no matter who wins it will only be a matter of time before the other side does the same thing and is better prepared and takes what they thinks is theirs by force... which just means more blood more anger more death and desperation and solutions that are short term at best.

A mother who sends her son off to fight and die so she can move back to where she lived when she was a child is a bitch.

Everyone wants to make their mother smile and be happy, but what that mother really wants is for things to go back to the way they were 30 years ago and no war can make that happen.

Odds are good that after 30 years her home is no longer there and the life she remembers wont come back even if they take the territory at the cost of 1,000 lives.

People are more important than land... how many sons is she prepared to lose to stand on the same soil she did all those years ago... and how is it going to feel when the politicians talk and end up giving most of it back in negotiations anyway...

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

All the rest is non-sense.

Current setup is completely unsustainable

Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it

Well in theory, also the position of Azerbaijan is unsustainable.  That territory was only assigned to the azeri ssr because of some decision from the soviet leadership.  As they decided to declare independence from soviet union, some parts of their territories can also declare independence from them.

Or, if autodermination is not allowed in this case the land should go to the owner before the Soviets rule, the russian empire...and the legitimate successor state to both the Russian empire and the soviet union is the Russian Federation

The conflict is a great example to teach people the old maxim that war is politics by other means. The Azeris took a loss in the 90s, were willing to settle things via some compromise, but then in time became richer and more powerful than their neighbor, so they went back to try and fix the old losses.
Armenians had a good chance for a political solution before the Azeris felt confident they had the military edge, now they will have to bargain for less.

So what's new? Only few percent of NK is being taken over. I am only worried about drones damaging/destroying artillery pieces of Armenians as they are truly a game changer in the defence.
It seems that there are thousands of dead Azeris and hundreds of turkemens. But they care little about losses.

Am I right to say that Azeris lost the steam and this will drag on? They will continue with drone campaign and Armenians should probably will be getting Manpads en masse to balance that out

But are those drones effectively destroying artillery ? A gun is made out of steel and resist the heat of its own fires.

Those drones fire tiny missiles and never touch directly the guns.

Vehicle mounted artillery is different because they always destroy the under armored vehicle and the gun vab't be used then. But fixed artillery is quite hard to destroy.

Regular wrote:...Am I right to say that Azeris lost the steam and this will drag on? They will continue with drone campaign and Armenians should probably will be getting Manpads en masse to balance that out

News updates have become few and far between so I'd say they have gone back to static WW1 style warfare

Azeris will probably keep what they took this time because Armenians don't seem to have what it takes to push back or escalate

So unless Turks deliver another decade worth of hardware in couple of months I'd say that both sides will lick their wounds for several years and give it another go down the road when Azerbaijan restocks again (Armenians better not flub it by then because this time they cruised solely on luck)

Maximmmm wrote:

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:

PapaDragon wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:Lachin pass agreement is suicide.

If people want peace, then exchanges in territory have to be consented.

All the rest is non-sense.

Current setup is completely unsustainable

Armenia needs to give up decent chunk of the NK in exchange for the territory that connects her to the rest of it

Well in theory, also the position of Azerbaijan is unsustainable.  That territory was only assigned to the azeri ssr because of some decision from the soviet leadership.  As they decided to declare independence from soviet union, some parts of their territories can also declare independence from them.

Or, if autodermination is not allowed in this case the land should go to the owner before the Soviets rule, the russian empire...and the legitimate successor state to both the Russian empire and the soviet union is the Russian Federation

The conflict is a great example to teach people the old maxim that war is politics by other means. The Azeris took a loss in the 90s, were willing to settle things via some compromise, but then in time became richer and more powerful than their neighbor, so they went back to try and fix the old losses.
Armenians had a good chance for a political solution before the Azeris felt confident they had the military edge, now they will have to bargain for less.

I don't think that Azerbaijan ever wanted to settle as they continously rejected every proposal (from Russia especially). Similarly Armenia felt protected by the region and Russia. This fundamentally changed from 2005 when Azerbaijan started its shopping spree.

However in this case it is not a Azerbaijan Armenia issue.
This time is a Turkey Armenia issue. As i have stated before. The most decisive actions, the most sensitive advances AZ forces have are beyond Armenia's reach in Turkey.
The continuous ressupply from Israel and Turkey over Artsakh is also fully illegal based on the very SAME UNSC resolutions Azeris are claiming to uphold.

The problem is that Armenia's strategic situation is bad in general, but could be saved if Russia levelled the playing field. This so far has been done through mainly veiled threats and statements and private diploacy. This doesn't deter Turkey, so while you are right about the timeline revese of this issue the problem isn't limited to the issue itself.

And this is why the conflict is worrisome and we're getting slowly to the point where Russia,by not acting before will be forced to either put its personnel at harm's way or use very heavy handed means to make the Azeris stop in order to for Turkey to get the message.

Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

Kalashnikov say its drones are very cheap so 1000 of them would be worth buying.

Armenia produces its own drone but it seems they don't have a fast production rate abd keep them for all out war.

They also need some more buk which proved to be very good at destroying tb2 drones in Syria. They can get them for cheap if they buy directly to RuMOD instead of rosoboronexport. No need for buk m3. Basic buk-m1-2 will be good against azerbaijan.

Regular wrote:So what's new? Only few percent of NK is being taken over. I am only worried about drones damaging/destroying artillery pieces of Armenians as they are truly a game changer in the defence.
It seems that there are thousands of dead Azeris and hundreds of turkemens. But they care little about losses.

Am I right to say that Azeris lost the steam and this will drag on? They will continue with drone campaign and Armenians should probably will be getting Manpads en masse to balance that out

Azeris are finally letting the Turks being busy with the follow up offensive.
They are trying to get Fuzuli blockaded and by pass Hadrut.
Next week should be decisive, wrt to first inhabitted settlements.

I think we will see TB-2's up in the sky trying to get past the peaks therefore being exposed to Manpads. As for artillery, in hill tops mortars are as interesting as the more conventional artillery; the best solution would be flatbed mounted 122mm guns and mortars in order to hide the vehicles and relocate faster.

Isos wrote:Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

Kalashnikov say its drones are very cheap so 1000 of them would be worth buying.

Armenia produces its own drone but it seems they don't have a fast production rate abd keep them for all out war.

They also need some more buk which proved to be very good at destroying tb2 drones in Syria. They can get them for cheap if they buy directly to RuMOD instead of rosoboronexport. No need for buk m3. Basic buk-m1-2 will be good against azerbaijan.

Kub has only a 70 km range and has very primitive jamming defences.

Buk not kub.

It will depend on US stand. Biden / Harris will very likely recognize NK and host military base in Armenia. Next year we could see Belarus and Armenia ditching Russia for US and hosting US military bases considering Putin has not been all that friendly to Lukashenko and Pashinyan. Long time Putin ally Evo Morales has already been ousted by CIA last year.

US has been making former Soviet countries like Baltics, Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan turn against Russia and surrounding Russia with enemy countries.

Isos wrote:Buk not kub.

The SUAV is called Kub.

You are talking about the SUAV.

Aliyev says they will take all of NK by force if Pashinyan does not accept territory for peace deal

https://twitter.com/alarabiya_brk/status/1316735256469344261?s=21

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Isos wrote:Buk not kub.

The SUAV is called Kub.

You are talking about the SUAV.

I though you answered about armenian AD.

Yes it is primitive but those israeli harop are not better. Neither is the tb2. But none of the two countries has the jamming capabilities to protect against them. So they will be good enough.

Isos wrote:

KoTeMoRe wrote:

Isos wrote:Buk not kub.

The SUAV is called Kub.

You are talking about the SUAV.

I though you answered about armenian AD.

Yes it is primitive but those israeli harop are not better. Neither is the tb2. But none of the two countries has the jamming capabilities to protect against them. So they will be good enough.

Russia has better to offer like the Lancet but China can provide saturation with cheap and plentiful drones as well. What the problem is however is that someone needs to do something about that E-7 Awacs at the Turkish border.
This should be priority N°1.

If possible shoot the thing down and risk a spat with Turdogan but at this point this is happening.


http://johnhelmer.net/gas-pains-for-gazprom-azerbaijan-attacks-russia-in-bulgaria-greece-italy/

So...

nomadski wrote:First I hear that the Rats kill horribly the Armenian residents in Hadrut. A town well inside Artsakh. Meaning there are holes in Armenian defence. Not enough men. Thinly spread.

Next I hear that Armenians defending against advance by Azeri forces in Jibrail front. Abandoned Azeri Town. That they should give back.

This tells me Armenia needs to carry out strategic retreat from all Azeri occupied lands. Pull back the forces to protect populated Armenian towns in Artsakh. Keeping land bridge. And border open with Iran.

Someone said that Turkish and Usrael drones will be coming over the mountains. So why not put manpads on high points of mountains. Together with more portable and smaller calibre AAA.  That will more easily reach higher altitude. And will not provide as big a target. Mapad protecting AAA, and allowing greater volume of fire.

Defending against advancing armour, may be more effective by using Anti - Tank.  You need less training and infrastructure. May cost less also. Faster deployment. Or just MINE  mountain Roads.

https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/maps/d9g/Azerbaijan/


Looks like some high  mountains  6000 to 10,000 feet. Harop max altitude 15000 feet. You need AAA to reach from 5000 to 9000 feet.

Harpy is limited to 4500m/ HAROP 3500m.

kvs wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-weapons-sales-azerbaijan-witnessed-huge-surge-just-armenia-conflict

Turkey and Azerbaijan planned this conflict and instigated it.  

I have total contempt for douchebag nazionalists who claim land based on "finders keepers, losers weepers" "morality".   Trotsky's
and Lenin's gift of NK to the Azeris was never legal and moral.    Bolshie slimeballs traded people like they traded cattle.   Other examples
of their crime against humanity level of border drawing include South Ossetia and Crimea.   There are also other time bombs in
Central Asia where they and Stalin engaged in criminal territorial crave ups.  

It was completely legal back then....difference between you not liking something and making shit up vs the facts.

Also, you clearly do not know a thing about the history Lenin had nothing to do with NK it was Stalin.

Stalin did this to try and build friendly relations with the nationalist Turkey at that time (circa 1920's) and Stalin wanted to win support for communism across Asia and appeasement of Muslim Azerbaijan would be welcomed in the countries bordering the new Soviet republics.

Isos wrote:Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

Kalashnikov say its drones are very cheap so 1000 of them would be worth buying.

Armenia produces its own drone but it seems they don't have a fast production rate abd keep them for all out war.

They also need some more buk which proved to be very good at destroying tb2 drones in Syria. They can get them for cheap if they buy directly to RuMOD instead of rosoboronexport. No need for buk m3. Basic buk-m1-2 will be good against azerbaijan.

Armenia had a chance to buy drones and other equipment from China but Pashinyan said no, probably from pressure from US.

I used to be a huge fan of Putin but I believe that age got the better of him. His last years are very mediocre. The prospect of staying all the way to 2032 is very worrying.