2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #1

Hannibal Barca wrote:I used to be a huge fan of Putin but I believe that age got the better of him. His last years are very mediocre. The prospect of staying all the way to 2032 is very worrying.

First off it's till 2026. Second he is doing right thing. Providing support via intelligence, equipment and what not is best rather than going in and blowing up Azerbaijan

Isos wrote:Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

You may have noticed Russia isn't providing any military assistance to Armenia. In fact no major country is. OTOH Azeris are receiving help from Turkey, Pakistan, Israel probably even China.

Armenia today finds itself in the same position that Serbia found itself in during the Kosovo conflict.

RTN wrote:

Isos wrote:Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

You may have noticed Russia isn't providing any military assistance to Armenia. In fact no major country is. OTOH Azeris are receiving help from Turkey, Pakistan, Israel probably even China.

Armenia today finds itself in the same position that Serbia found itself in during the Kosovo conflict.

For the 3rd time, NK isn't recognized by Russia as part of Armenia. The conflict is within NK and the rest of the border is calm.

And they already sent some stuff through Iran.

Azerbaijan isn't conquering Armenia but fighting for a small piece of land that no one recognize as Armenian.

This war will weaken both combatants; if either or both regimes collapse as a result, Russia wins, as she will come in before NATO/Turkey/Iran. Georgia may also get destabilized if Ks of refugees come.
https://www.pravdareport.com/world/145141-turkey_azerbaijan/

https://iz.ru/1073848/elnar-bainazarov/knut-i-preniia-chem-chrevato-turetckoe-predlozhenie-po-karabakhu

https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2020-10-15/1_1113_karabakh.html?print=Y

Isos wrote:

RTN wrote:

Isos wrote:Armenia needs suicide drone from kalashnikov as a deterrance agaibst Azeri. With 80km range they can cover the front line and stop azeri supplying their forces in NK.

You may have noticed Russia isn't providing any military assistance to Armenia. In fact no major country is. OTOH Azeris are receiving help from Turkey, Pakistan, Israel probably even China.

Armenia today finds itself in the same position that Serbia found itself in during the Kosovo conflict.

For the 3rd time, NK isn't recognized by Russia as part of Armenia. The conflict is within NK and the rest of the border is calm.

And they already sent some stuff through Iran.

Azerbaijan isn't conquering Armenia but fighting for a small  piece of land that no one recognize as Armenian.

Wrong. California recognizes NK and it is certain Biden / Harris will recognize NK.

Hannibal Barca wrote:I used to be a huge fan of Putin but I believe that age got the better of him. His last years are very mediocre. The prospect of staying all the way to 2032 is very worrying.

Russia needs to play a balancing act here and Pashinyan was also put in place by Soros. Also Armenia refused to buy weapons from China.

par far wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:I used to be a huge fan of Putin but I believe that age got the better of him. His last years are very mediocre. The prospect of staying all the way to 2032 is very worrying.

Russia needs to play a balancing act here and Pashinyan was also put in place by Soros. Also Armenia refused to buy weapons from China.

This conflict is obvious bait for Russia. It is under no obligation to get involved outside of any scope it chooses. People are always looking for
someone else to take the load off their backs. Putin is doing just fine "failing" to meet the expectations. Russia has had most of the last
century blown to shit by being part of some "do gooder" BS and finally has the right government and leader to focus on itself. All the critics
should grow some responsibility.

Hannibal Barca wrote:I used to be a huge fan of Putin but I believe that age got the better of him. His last years are very mediocre. The prospect of staying all the way to 2032 is very worrying.

You do realize that NK is inside Azerbaijan and that even Armenia recognizes it as Azeri sovereign territory?

And why should Russia jump the gun when even Armenia isn't doing anything?

kvs wrote:

par far wrote:

Hannibal Barca wrote:I used to be a huge fan of Putin but I believe that age got the better of him. His last years are very mediocre. The prospect of staying all the way to 2032 is very worrying.

Russia needs to play a balancing act here and Pashinyan was also put in place by Soros. Also Armenia refused to buy weapons from China.

This conflict is obvious bait for Russia.  It is under no obligation to get involved outside of any scope it chooses.   People are always looking for
someone else to take the load off their backs.   Putin is doing just fine "failing" to meet the expectations.   Russia has had most of the last
century blown to shit by being part of some "do gooder" BS and finally has the right government and leader to focus on itself.   All the critics
should grow some responsibility.

This 100%. If Armenia comes directly under attack(which it won't because Turkey and Azerbaijan know that if they hit Armenia directly than Russia is going to enter this war and the whole NK region is going to Armenia.)

It is going to be very hard for Turkey and Azerbaijan to take the whole NK region, so this may go on for a while. This maybe good for Russia because it will weaken Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey, it will also give Russia a bigger say in ending this conflict when both sides are tired, it may push Azerbaijan more into Russia's camp and it might mean the end of Soros installed government in Armenia.

On a side note, looking at Armenia, it sucks being land locked, it is in vital that a country not be land locked and have warm water ports. So glad Russia took Crimea when it had the chance.

You do realize that NK is inside Azerbaijan and that even Armenia recognizes it as Azeri sovereign territory?

FYI, Pashinyan said before the shooting started that "NK is Armenia". That's why it's independence wasn't recognized, since in this context independence means being independent from any state.

Agree. The enemies of both Armenia and Azer, want to take sides. Weaken or allow to weaken one or both side. Increase tensions. Create existentialist war, between sides. They provide no solutions. And  aim to enslave one or both sides. Monopoly of power in hands of the few. Liberal elite.

We take no sides. But the side of peace. We keep both sides strong. Disallow targeting of infrastructure. Economy or citizens. We decrease tensions. Keep war local, defensive. Provide solution and aim to free both sides. Increase political participation. National or regional interests.

This means, helping Azeris to return to territory captured by Armenia. All 600,000 of them. Helping Armenians to return to Artsakh, all 150,000 of them. Allow for joining of Artsakh with Armenia . The only fair and viable solution. Not increase arms race. Offensive weapons. Not allow military blockade of region, to stop economic activity. And I think it means, setting aside, over caution. Inaction. And directly imposing peace. Not allowing the machinations of Liberal madmen, to destroy the region.

Azeri invasion of NK is a NATO ploy to expand NATO. Armenians will see Russia will do nothing when Azeris invade Armenia proper in order to retake Azeri enclaves in Armenia due to Putin's relationship with Erdogan. Ergo, Armenia then ditches CSTO and joins NATO and evicts Russian military base and hosts US military base and Russia loses another of its few allies left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Resolution_68/262

Azeris don't have a choice. They are being commanded by Turkey, a NATO country. Hell, Azeri generals were getting fired left and right when they tried to oppose Turkey. That's why Russia has not been able to get Azeris to negotiate. Therefore, when Azeris invade Armenia proper to retake Azeri enclaves in Armenia, Putin will again do nothing and that is when Armenia will ditch CSTO and join NATO. NATO wins. Russia loses.

Agree. This situation calls for active participation, in making peace. Iran and Russia should  officially recognise Artsakh as Armenian territory. Then physically protect it's borders. And stop attacks on Azer territory. Even if Armenians do not officially recognise unification. But give no support to occupation of Azeri territory. The Azeris are making progress in reclaiming lost territory. They seem to have no problems. Iran and Russia, could even make offer to Azer, that should they evict terrorists and stop attacking Artsakh or Armenia. Or force stop them attacking. That they will get help, in reclaiming lost territory. Even if  Azeris  officially do not recognise unification. Then both countries get help, in returning refugees.........

nomadski wrote:Agree. This situation calls for active participation, in making peace. Iran and Russia should  officially recognise Artsakh as Armenian territory. Then physically protect it's borders. And stop attacks on Azer territory. Even if Armenians do not officially recognise unification. But give no support to occupation of Azeri territory. The Azeris are making progress in reclaiming lost territory. They seem to have no problems. Iran and Russia, could even make offer to Azer, that should they evict terrorists and stop attacking Artsakh or Armenia. Or force stop them attacking. That they will get help, in reclaiming lost territory. Even if  Azeris  officially do not recognise unification. Then both countries get help, in returning refugees.........

Except Russia will not go into NK with force, they have been very clear long as the fighting stays within NK they do not give a rats ass what happens.

Where I think Russia should be more aggressive is in the import terrorist issue. We should declare that if there is evidence for the presence of terrorists imported from elsewhere in the NK we will reserve the right to eliminate them as they pose a direct threat to Russia. Putin already got permission to use Russian forces abroad for counter-terrorist purposes without much extra authorization years ago, so it's legally sound, and that way we not only avoid the issue of picking a side, but directly act against Turkey as we're not killing any Azeris.
Couple of airstrikes on a few columns of import terrorists would not only freeze up the front-lines a bit, pushing sides towards some sort of talks, but also help the Armenians without officially "helping" them.
Send a few Kalibr's over from the Caspian right next to Azeri territorial waters.

We could wait, as you say. But waiting is risky. Because the protagonists are in no position to limit the war or find solutions. The line of command on Azeri side, runs through Ankara to DC. And what do the Yanks want first and foremost?  Strangulate Iran and Russia.

It is not just the terrorist problem. But the fact that, the Azeri side, led by Turkey and Co, is not merely interested in regaining lost land, or resettling refugees. In that case, they would not attack Armenia or Artsakh. But engage only in areas they want recaptured.

The problem with Armenian side, is no better. The fail  to recognise Artsakh as Armenian territory. A lethal blow to Armenia. Not thinking about geopolitical realities on the ground. The necessity to safeguard territorial integrity, by alliance with regional countries, that depend on the present balance of forces, or status quo. To ensure stability and balance.

If Turkish or Azer forces enter Armenia. Then it will be much harder to oppose them. With local forces disintegrated. Russia and Iran have to put boots on the ground, in much larger numbers.

Acting now, may only mean, sending a few thousand, to solidify the front. Suppress offensive firing units. Arrange for orderly retreat. Seeing the realities on the ground, acting in a decisive way now, is much better. Than wielding a Sledge hammer later. IMHO.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AcarUmut/status/1316996612263190528

Russian stuff being shiped to Armenia through Iran. Not confirmed.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

nomadski wrote:Agree. This situation calls for active participation, in making peace. Iran and Russia should  officially recognise Artsakh as Armenian territory. Then physically protect it's borders. And stop attacks on Azer territory. Even if Armenians do not officially recognise unification. But give no support to occupation of Azeri territory. The Azeris are making progress in reclaiming lost territory. They seem to have no problems. Iran and Russia, could even make offer to Azer, that should they evict terrorists and stop attacking Artsakh or Armenia. Or force stop them attacking. That they will get help, in reclaiming lost territory. Even if  Azeris  officially do not recognise unification. Then both countries get help, in returning refugees.........

Except Russia will not go into NK with force, they have been very clear long as the fighting stays within NK they do not give a rats ass what happens.

NK is only the first phase. The last phase will be Azerbaijan invade Armenia proper to retake Azeri enclaves in Armenia (thanks stupid Soviets for the world's most fucked up border)

Tai Hai Chen wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

nomadski wrote:Agree. This situation calls for active participation, in making peace. Iran and Russia should  officially recognise Artsakh as Armenian territory. Then physically protect it's borders. And stop attacks on Azer territory. Even if Armenians do not officially recognise unification. But give no support to occupation of Azeri territory. The Azeris are making progress in reclaiming lost territory. They seem to have no problems. Iran and Russia, could even make offer to Azer, that should they evict terrorists and stop attacking Artsakh or Armenia. Or force stop them attacking. That they will get help, in reclaiming lost territory. Even if  Azeris  officially do not recognise unification. Then both countries get help, in returning refugees.........

Except Russia will not go into NK with force, they have been very clear long as the fighting stays within NK they do not give a rats ass what happens.

NK is only the first phase. The last phase will be Azerbaijan invade Armenia proper to retake Azeri enclaves in Armenia (thanks stupid Soviets for the world's most fucked up border)

And the US and its minions recognize these borders.

Good to see, some support from Russia and Iran, for Armenia. I think they need it now. AZER doing well, reportedly recaptured 43  villages and a couple of towns in South, near fizuli. Also Iran shot down, one fighter jet and two drones today, in border area. Unknown origin and type. I don't think they would have just shot down jet for nearing border. I think jet incursion deliberate and deep inside Iran territory. Opportunity for Iran to intervene. With Russia. Draw a line in the sand.

Tsavo Lion wrote:

You do realize that NK is inside Azerbaijan and that even Armenia recognizes it as Azeri sovereign territory?

FYI, Pashinyan said before the shooting started that "NK is Armenia". That's why it's independence wasn't recognized, since in this context independence means being independent from any state.

Then why is Armenian army sitting on it's ass instead of defending Armenian territory?

PapaDragon wrote:

Tsavo Lion wrote:

You do realize that NK is inside Azerbaijan and that even Armenia recognizes it as Azeri sovereign territory?

FYI, Pashinyan said before the shooting started that "NK is Armenia". That's why it's independence wasn't recognized, since in this context independence means being independent from any state.

Then why is Armenian army sitting on it's ass instead of defending Armenian territory?

Because they think that is Russia's job.

After Erdogan's statements today on Crimea, things might get very nasty for Turkey and Azerbaijan.

I kinda feel like they crossed all the red lines.

Ottomans captured Hadrut. The next target is Stepanakert. Then they'll go after Armenia proper to take the Azeri enclaves in Armenia. Russia won't act because of Putin's relationship with Erdogan. This will prompt Armenia to abandon CSTO and join NATO for protection from Ottomans especially considering Biden / Harris will recognize Artsakh considering California recognizes Artsakh since 2014.

https://twitter.com/cavidaga/status/1317120441924943875?s=21