European gas imports

SWIFT deterrent

Marvel at the inanity that rots the minds of so many NATzO prats.

NATzO needs to be deterred. It installed the Khuyiv regime that puts Nazi butcher Stepan Bandera on a pedestal.
Then NATzO cries about "Russian invasion" when its regime bootlicks plan to ethnically cleanse the Donbass.

ALAMO wrote:Your very own Office for National Statistics.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/previousReleases

Hell, you even have a name for that - "excess winter mortality".

And "winter fuel payment" is something unbelievable either.

https://www.gov.uk/winter-fuel-payment

Think you jumped to an erroneous conclusion that excess winter mortality equals people freezing to death. It doesn't, very few actually die of hypothermia in the UK, most of those excess deaths will be down to influenza and pneumonia.

The winter fuel payment is brilliant. A tax free £200 payment from the Government every November to help with heating bills! What's not to like?

JohninMK wrote:

ALAMO wrote:Your very own Office for National Statistics.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/previousReleases

Hell, you even have a name for that - "excess winter mortality".

And "winter fuel payment" is something unbelievable either.

https://www.gov.uk/winter-fuel-payment

Think you jumped to an erroneous conclusion that excess winter mortality equals people freezing to death. It doesn't, very few actually die of hypothermia in the UK, most of those excess deaths will be down to influenza and pneumonia.

The winter fuel payment is brilliant. A tax free £200 payment from the Government every November to help with heating bills! What's not to like?

That 200 Pounds don't come out of thin air.

The UK Government will collect it from your taxes
or
Will print money and cause more inflation.

Either way you are paying every penny for the STG 200 you are receiving.

Hilarious! Qatar prefers to sell LNG to Asia because it gets:

1) Long term contracts

2) Does not expose itself to political pressure over "human rights".

Meanwhile retarded NATzO blowhard Stoltenberg is screeching about Gazprom manipulating the gas market in U-rope
by not supplying enough (without contracts) and that U-rope should quickly use alternative sources. Basically
Qatar is avoiding the same BS as being hurled at Russia.

Stoltenberg was a pencil pusher. I think he was a glorified security guard. In other words, he will say whatever the hawks want him to say. He is neither smart nor capable. In the end, he is trying to work with media and populous of nato countries with its anti Russian hysteria. But unfortunately, Europeans on average feel they are more smart than they really are and actually believe the nonsense.

At this point, he is just a reflection of the stupidity of the collective "west".

Gazprom has the freedom of choice to only sign long term contracts. It is not obliged to trade on the sport market where some
f*ckass speculators can drive the price down to $40 per thousand cubic meters because the "supply is stable". EU-tards are
trying to force Gazprom to trade on the spot market. They can go and stick tubes in their asses and tap that boundless gas
they are so full of.

To fully replace russian pipeline gas they would need 3.000 LNG tankers. A day. But loading and unloading takes time as do the travel across the Atlantic so in reality it would take roughly 20.000 tankers. And even if so many ships could be build in a reasonable timeframe the gas would still be much more expensive then pipeline gas.

As that post above points out... Germany gas storage sites are low, but so are all gas storage sites in Europe... which means if one country breaks ranks and tries to buy gas from Russia, then they likely all will go to Russia for gas, but Russia wont be interested in spot price sales... they want long term contracts, so they can pick and choose who they sell gas too... but that creates a dilemma.... Russia has the gas capacity to supply everyone.... probably not all at once but there are multiple pipes they can use to deliver gas in enormous volumes if they need to... the dilemma is.... what if Germany sticks to its guns and demands spot prices and not contracts... Russia of course can refuse to sell... but how trustworthy are the Germans... the Ukraine stole gas it couldn't buy for itself.... might Germany do the same with gas it is supposed to be transiting rather than pinching for itself?

Ironically the spot price should never go very low because if it does Russia can just choose not to sell any at that price... the spot price market is like an auction, and in that sense Russia can say well we have a reserve price under which our gas is not for sale.

That´s exactly the point. A load of one tanker would barely cover the european needs of 1,5 minutes. Do the math.

LNG ships can generally carry anywhere from 120 000 to 250 000 cubic meters of LNG (newer ships).

Natural gas in its liquefied state is 1/600th the volume of natural gas in its gaseous state.

That means that each ship can carry roughly anywhere from 72 to 150 million cubic meters of natural gas (gaseous).

Anywhere from 2% to 6% is lost during voyage due to boil-off (20 days one-way).

The trip from the United States to the European Union takes around 20 days. Loading takes 3 days. Unloading ~2 days.

Loading and unloading requires infrastructure that does not exist in Europe in large amounts (/thread lol)

The cumulative capacity of all (that includes Russian LNG Tankers too, btw) LNG tankers is 95 million cubic meters of LNG.

(That's a total of 57 bcm, by the way)

Total voyage time (load, US-EU, unload, EU-US) is 45-50 days. That's 7-8 trips per year (this is assuming no downtime, which is impossible)

• 100% - approx. 430 bcm
  
• 75%   - approx. 320 bcm
  
• 50%   - approx. 214 bcm
  
• 25%   - approx. 107 bcm
  
• 5%     - approx. 21  bcm
  

(The above assumes X % of LNG tankers diverted to Europe)

The EU-27 consumes anywhere from 400 bcm to 500 bcm of natural gas per year.

They import somewhere around 40% from Russia (160 bcm to 200 bcm)

Remember that the EU already imports a sizeable amount of LNG (108 bcm in 2019).

It's impossible for them to switch to LNG. Japan and South Korea are completely dependent on LNG imports and will always be able to offer up a better price than the Europeans would (imagine the EU fucking up Japan and South Korea energy situation, that'd be a laugh lol)... precisely what we've been seeing this year where most LNG exports were going to Asia chasing higher gas prices there. Additionally, there are not enough tankers or infrastructure available to service the EU (both inside and outside) so they're out of luck there too...

Yamal gas field production capacity is not limitless. Either natural gas usage in Europe is going to tank (get it?) or they'll slowly switch away to selling natural gas (meant for Europe) to the Chinese. I predict we'll see a flip of prices where the EU is paying the big-bucks to attract LNG shipments and Asia is enjoying cheap Russian energy. What a fucking disaster for the Europeans.

You must be missing some key numbers above. What is the percentage table supposed to show. The question is
how many tankers would take to provide 200 bcm/year that Gazprom was supplying at some point. There are not
enough super large tankers but the common ones can deliver 130 million cubic meters. So the EU needs 1,538 such
loads delivered per year.

This is why the 10 LNG tankers diverted to the EU were such an absurd joke. Yet they produced a massive swing in
the price on the spot market. It fell from over $1200 to under $800. It would be insane for Gazprom to trade its
gas on such a Mickey Mouse exchange.

kvs wrote:You must be missing some key numbers above.

Fairly certain I am not.

kvs wrote:What is the percentage table supposed to show.

The total capacity of LNG tankers is 57 bcm (gaseous form). Assuming 7-8 trips per year from United States to Europe that's 430 bcm yearly. The bullet list was there to point out how large of a percentage of global LNG tankers would need to go to Europe to cover Russia's supply.

kvs wrote:The question is how many tankers would take to provide 200 bcm/year that Gazprom was supplying at some point.

Theoretically half the currently existing fleet of LNG tankers. In reality, there's no such infrastructure in Europe.

nero wrote:LNG ships can generally carry anywhere from 120 000 to 250 000 cubic meters of LNG (newer ships).

Natural gas in its liquefied state is 1/600th the volume of natural gas in its gaseous state.

That means that each ship can carry roughly anywhere from 72 to 150 million cubic meters of natural gas (gaseous).

Anywhere from 2% to 6% is lost during voyage due to boil-off (20 days one-way).

The trip from the United States to the European Union takes around 20 days. Loading takes 3 days. Unloading ~2 days.

Loading and unloading requires infrastructure that does not exist in Europe in large amounts (/thread lol)

The cumulative capacity of all (that includes Russian LNG Tankers too, btw) LNG tankers is 95 million cubic meters of LNG.

(That's a total of 57 bcm, by the way)

Total voyage time (load, US-EU, unload, EU-US) is 45-50 days. That's 7-8 trips per year (this is assuming no downtime, which is impossible)

• 100% - approx. 430 bcm
  
• 75%   - approx. 320 bcm
  
• 50%   - approx. 214 bcm
  
• 25%   - approx. 107 bcm
  
• 5%     - approx. 21  bcm
  

(The above assumes X % of LNG tankers diverted to Europe)

The EU-27 consumes anywhere from 400 bcm to 500 bcm of natural gas per year.

They import somewhere around 40% from Russia (160 bcm to 200 bcm)

Remember that the EU already imports a sizeable amount of LNG (108 bcm in 2019).

It's impossible for them to switch to LNG. Japan and South Korea are completely dependent on LNG imports and will always be able to offer up a better price than the Europeans would (imagine the EU fucking up Japan and South Korea energy situation, that'd be a laugh lol)... precisely what we've been seeing this year where most LNG exports were going to Asia chasing higher gas prices there. Additionally, there are not enough tankers or infrastructure available to service the EU (both inside and outside) so they're out of luck there too...

Yamal gas field production capacity is not limitless. Either natural gas usage in Europe is going to tank (get it?) or they'll slowly switch away to selling natural gas (meant for Europe) to the Chinese. I predict we'll see a flip of prices where the EU is paying the big-bucks to attract LNG shipments and Asia is enjoying cheap Russian energy. What a fucking disaster for the Europeans.

What percentage of total available LNG tanker capacity is currently used by Japan/South Korea and separately China? What percentage of total LNG tanker capacity is Russian flagged?

Gas prices in Europe surpass $1,100 first time since December 27

https://tass.com/economy/1392377

owais.usmani wrote:Sorry I didn't get this part. Each ship can carry 72 to 150 million cubic meters but cumulative capacity of all LNG tankers is 95 million cubic meters? Kindly elaborate.

You don't use liquified gas. It's regasified after transfer. Liquified natural gas takes 1/600th the volume of gaseous natural gas.

George1 wrote:Gas prices in Europe surpass $1,100 first time since December 27

https://tass.com/economy/1392377

So I guess those freedom gas vessels have done nothing in the end.

miketheterrible wrote:

George1 wrote:Gas prices in Europe surpass $1,100 first time since December 27

https://tass.com/economy/1392377

So I guess those freedom gas vessels have done nothing in the end.

How convenient for the spot market speculators that it took them several weeks to realize this.   It is like gasoline prices in Canada,
they go up instantaneously but take forever to fall.   This is a pure creaming racket.   In the case of the EU spot market racket the
price falls instantaneously and then takes forever to go back up.   It is only when the primary supplier is not playing the game that
it swings wildly.   People who have faith in markets and invisible hands are morons.

How convenient for the spot market speculators that it took them several weeks to realize this. It is like gasoline prices in Canada,
they go up instantaneously but take forever to fall. This is a pure creaming racket. In the case of the EU spot market racket the
price falls instantaneously and then takes forever to go back up. It is only when the primary supplier is not playing the game that
it swings wildly. People who have faith in markets and invisible hands are morons.

Yes the petrol market here is deregulated but it is OK because we have quite a few different companies all competing so market forces will give us the best possible price....

But they work together... the price goes up very quickly because of the slightest reason that should not effect the price of the fuel they are selling right now... crude oil price increases should not effect petrol prices for weeks or months, but they effect it straight away.

And as you mention they don't go down very quickly at all and they do it in a pack... a group of petrol stations in one city or town will always have very similar prices... usually within a few cents per litre and occasionally one price will drop or go up and it is like they watch what happens... if everyone stops going to the higher priced ones then they drop their prices too... if business doesn't change much the rest put their prices up...

It might as well be a monopoly...

Dependence on Russian gas, date unknown and comment re passing thro' Ukraine obviously wrong.

It had to happen. Now they can get back to normal.


Prof. Michael Tanchum
@michaeltanchum
· 4h
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