The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

No Bayraktar, no cry ...

With consideration Turkey creating SIPER air defense and longer range air defenses and now Ukraine, I guess we can say Russia is thinking way ahead for creating the Su-70 with internal hypersonic air to ground missiles to target such air defense systems

https://naukatehnika.com/pervyij-prototip-ukrainskogo-zrk-bolshoj-dalnosti-kilchen-kb-yuzhnoe-obeshhaet-sdelat-za-3-goda.html

We are talking about the first prototype in the so-called "minimum configuration" of the air defense system from the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. For all ROC to create a domestic anti-aircraft missile system, in the conditions of appropriate state funding, it takes about 5 years and about $ 270 million. SE "Yuzhnoye Design Bureau" named after Yangel counts on state support in the creation of the Ukrainian long-range anti-aircraft missile system "Kilchen". The corresponding decision can be made by the government in a few months, representatives of Yuzhnoye KB say in an interview with the media. "Now the program of development of rocket and rocket weapons in Ukraine is being considered. This project is in this program – the creation of a long-range anti-aircraft missile system. We hope that in the next month or two this program will be adopted, and the project of the Kilchen anti-aircraft missile system will be launched, "said Alexander Kushnarev, General Director of Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. Told the Dnieper designers and about the likely timing of the creation of this complex. According to preliminary estimates, more than 7 billion hryvnias (about $ 270 million) are needed to create the Kilchen missile defense system and its tests, and one complex will cost $ 150 million. "The government sets the task in such a way that we plan to carry out the development of the system in two stages. The first stage will last three years, so that in 2024 we report on the readiness to conduct state tests, flight tests of the anti-aircraft missile system, I emphasize, not the system, "said Valery Perkov, head of the group of the project department of Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. Render of anti-aircraft missile "Kilchen" from KB "Yuzhnoye" "First of all, we plan to develop an anti-aircraft missile system in three years in the configuration minimum necessary for combat work. The second stage will be devoted to the development of system solutions and building the potential of information and intelligence facilities of the complex, which were developed in the first stage. If we talk about the overall course of development work, we see it for 5 years," he added. The composition of one air defense system "Kilchen", according to the developers, can include six launchers of air defense systems. In addition to them, for the full functioning of the system, six more special vehicles are needed (command center, various radars, etc.). It was also noted that for the development of the first sample of the Kilchen complex and its tests, it takes 5 years and more than 7 billion hryvnias (at the current exchange rate it is about $ 268 million), and one complex will cost about $ 150 million. The composition of each air defense system "Kilchen" includes, in addition to the actual launchers with missiles, six more machines. "The declared probability of hitting one aerodynamic target is 0.8, ballistic - 0.6. But at the same time, we say that each complex, I emphasize, is not a system, but each individual complex (the minimum number of launch - 3, that is, one batariya - ed.) can work offline. Each complex is capable of simultaneously firing at 12 targets," said Valery Perkov. Launcher SAM "Kilchen" At the same time, the declared performance characteristics of the Kilchen air defense system are very ambitious - subsonic aerodynamic targets are detected at a distance of up to 400 km and can be destroyed at a distance of 280 km, supersonic fighters at a range of about 130 kilometers ballistic targets at a distance of up to 44 kilometers (the declared parameters correspond to the "maximum" capabilities of the system). Render of anti-aircraft missile "Kilchen" from KB "Yuzhnoye" On KB "Yuzhnoye" claim that they already have the necessary equipment for the manufacture of 400-mm hulls of anti-aircraft missiles "Kilchen", but the creation of the entire air defense system requires the joint work of many enterprises of the defense industry of Ukraine. One samS (out of 6 PU "Kilchen") according to the plan is enough to protect a large city, for example, the Dnieper with its suburbs. "The integration of the entire project is entrusted to Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. The rocket is the development of Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. Radars are manufactured by our partners in Ukraine - NPK "Iskra", Zaporozhye, "Kvant-radar", Kiev. Control system of the complex - YUZHNOYE Design Bureau together with other enterprises of Ukraine. Production of the rocket - "Yuzhmash". Pavlograd Chemical Plant is involved in the equipment of the engine with solid fuel, the equipment of the warhead. Homing heads for the missile will be created by Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in cooperation with a number of enterprises in Kharkiv, Lviv and Kyiv," Said Alexander Kushnarev. It should be noted that, in addition to statements on the creation of a long-range air defense system from the leaders of the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau, the Luch Design Bureau also presented its proposals to the Ministry of Defense on the creation of a line of anti-aircraft missile systems, which already has specific results in the implementation of missile projects.

The revolution eats its own children

Long a Ukro-nationalist sympathising, anti-Russian and pro-Western propaganda producing rag. Don't particularly care if one is replaced by another, but I do appreciate the collateral damage and whining.

Allegation of Canadian troops training neo-Nazis leads to military review.

They knew they were Neo-Nazis the entire time.

thegopnik wrote:With consideration Turkey creating SIPER air defense and longer range air defenses and now Ukraine, I guess we can say Russia is thinking way ahead for creating the Su-70 with internal hypersonic air to ground missiles to target such air defense systems

https://naukatehnika.com/pervyij-prototip-ukrainskogo-zrk-bolshoj-dalnosti-kilchen-kb-yuzhnoe-obeshhaet-sdelat-za-3-goda.html

We are talking about the first prototype in the so-called "minimum configuration" of the air defense system from the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. For all ROC to create a domestic anti-aircraft missile system, in the conditions of appropriate state funding, it takes about 5 years and about $ 270 million.   SE "Yuzhnoye Design Bureau" named after Yangel counts on state support in the creation of the Ukrainian long-range anti-aircraft missile system "Kilchen".   The corresponding decision can be made by the government in a few months, representatives of Yuzhnoye KB say in an interview with the media.     "Now the program of development of rocket and rocket weapons in Ukraine is being considered. This project is in this program – the creation of a long-range anti-aircraft missile system. We hope that in the next month or two this program will be adopted, and the project of the Kilchen anti-aircraft missile system will be launched, "said Alexander Kushnarev, General Director of Yuzhnoye Design Bureau.   Told the Dnieper designers and about the likely timing of the creation of this complex. According to preliminary estimates, more than 7 billion hryvnias (about $ 270 million) are needed to create the Kilchen missile defense system and its tests, and one complex will cost $ 150 million. "The government sets the task in such a way that we plan to carry out the development of the system in two stages.   The first stage will last three years, so that in 2024 we report on the readiness to conduct state tests, flight tests of the anti-aircraft missile system, I emphasize, not the system, "said Valery Perkov, head of the group of the project department of Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. Render of anti-aircraft missile "Kilchen" from KB "Yuzhnoye" "First of all, we plan to develop an anti-aircraft missile system in three years in the configuration minimum necessary for combat work.   The second stage will be devoted to the development of system solutions and building the potential of information and intelligence facilities of the complex, which were developed in the first stage. If we talk about the overall course of development work, we see it for 5 years," he added.     The composition of one air defense system "Kilchen", according to the developers, can include six launchers of air defense systems. In addition to them, for the full functioning of the system, six more special vehicles are needed (command center, various radars, etc.).   It was also noted that for the development of the first sample of the Kilchen complex and its tests, it takes 5 years and more than 7 billion hryvnias (at the current exchange rate it is about $ 268 million), and one complex will cost about $ 150 million. The composition of each air defense system "Kilchen" includes, in addition to the actual launchers with missiles, six more machines.   "The declared probability of hitting one aerodynamic target is 0.8, ballistic - 0.6. But at the same time, we say that each complex, I emphasize, is not a system, but each individual complex (the minimum number of launch - 3, that is, one batariya - ed.) can work offline.   Each complex is capable of simultaneously firing at 12 targets," said Valery Perkov. Launcher SAM "Kilchen" At the same time, the declared performance characteristics of the Kilchen air defense system are very ambitious - subsonic aerodynamic targets are detected at a distance of up to 400 km and can be destroyed at a distance of 280 km, supersonic fighters at a range of about 130 kilometers ballistic targets at a distance of up to 44 kilometers (the declared parameters correspond to the "maximum" capabilities of the system). Render of anti-aircraft missile "Kilchen" from KB "Yuzhnoye" On KB "Yuzhnoye" claim that they already have the necessary equipment for the manufacture of 400-mm hulls of anti-aircraft missiles "Kilchen", but the creation of the entire air defense system requires the joint work of many enterprises of the defense industry of Ukraine. One samS (out of 6 PU "Kilchen") according to the plan is enough to protect a large city, for example, the Dnieper with its suburbs. "The integration of the entire project is entrusted to Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. The rocket is the development of Yuzhnoye Design Bureau. Radars are manufactured by our partners in Ukraine - NPK "Iskra", Zaporozhye, "Kvant-radar", Kiev. Control system of the complex - YUZHNOYE Design Bureau together with other enterprises of Ukraine.     Production of the rocket - "Yuzhmash". Pavlograd Chemical Plant is involved in the equipment of the engine with solid fuel, the equipment of the warhead. Homing heads for the missile will be created by Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in cooperation with a number of enterprises in Kharkiv, Lviv and Kyiv," Said Alexander Kushnarev.   It should be noted that, in addition to statements on the creation of a long-range air defense system from the leaders of the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau, the Luch Design Bureau also presented its proposals to the Ministry of Defense on the creation of a line of anti-aircraft missile systems, which already has specific results in the implementation of missile projects.

To do this, you need:

- Money
- experience
- logistics
- manufacturing capabilities
- access to technology

These are some parts of it. Ukraine doesn't have nearly half of that. Turkey is buying S-400 because they wont be able to build anything remotely half decent because if they could, they would have gone that route. They didn't. Its like Iran, saying they can build this or that. But they want to also import from Russia the same technology because Russian one actually works.

I have some thoughs regarding this war in Donbass and I wonder, what other think about it. This new war, which Ukraine start, last now for two weeks. Before Ukrainian propaganda claim, that Ukrainian army will break LDNR in few days. After two weeks they achieve nothing. They didn't break through LDNR defense lines and LDNR inflict them losses, mostly with artillery. Considering situation in Ukraine, where there is no money, they sold their grain and have empty warehouses, have no fuel, gas, coal, electricity, closing factories, health system collapsing, etc, Ukrainian army start new war in front of winter. I think their time window to win the war is quite short and it will not last long. They have to win quickly in Donbass or they will loose the war. They already lost two weeks of war and LDNR defense is not yet fighting with full strenght. I don't think Ukraine could fight long winter war without proper food, fuel, medicines, ammo supplies... Hungry, ill and wounded soldiers with low moral would more likely surrender, than die in the front lines. I think Ukrainian army could face mass surrenderings if war last too long and LDNR will have big problem, where to place that many hungry and ill soldiers...

Ukrainian army now must attack with their full strenght, if they want to win quickly as they don't have enough time. I'm sure Ukrainian army leaders know that and I wonder if this is actually their full strenght? Was much of paraded power just a smoke screen and nothing behind? If this is it, that LDNR will not need to mobilize their reserves, standing army will be enough. There is a good chanse, that this war will be fatal for Ukraine.

Why would they attack now?

They have had 5 years to do it. A failed offensive will decrease their prestige even further

Walther von Oldenburg wrote:Why would they attack now?

They have had 5 years to do it. A failed offensive will decrease their prestige even further

Desperation or big daddy told them to stir the pot...

medo wrote:I have some thoughs regarding this war in Donbass and I wonder, what other think about it. This new war, which Ukraine start, last now for two weeks. Before Ukrainian propaganda claim, that Ukrainian army will break LDNR in few days. After two weeks they achieve nothing. They didn't break through LDNR defense lines and LDNR inflict them losses, mostly with artillery. Considering situation in Ukraine, where there is no money, they sold their grain and have empty warehouses, have no fuel, gas, coal, electricity, closing factories, health system collapsing, etc, Ukrainian army start new war in front of winter. I think their time window to win the war is quite short and it will not last long. They have to win quickly in Donbass or they will loose the war. They already lost two weeks of war and LDNR defense is not yet fighting with full strenght. I don't think Ukraine could fight long winter war without proper food, fuel, medicines, ammo supplies... Hungry, ill and wounded soldiers with low moral would more likely surrender, than die in the front lines. I think Ukrainian army could face mass surrenderings if war last too long and LDNR will have big problem, where to place that many hungry and ill soldiers...

Ukrainian army now must attack with their full strenght, if they want to win quickly as they don't have enough time. I'm sure Ukrainian army leaders know that and I wonder if this is actually their full strenght? Was much of paraded power just a smoke screen and nothing behind? If this is it, that LDNR will not need to mobilize their reserves, standing army will be enough. There is a good chanse, that this war will be fatal for Ukraine.

What we saw isn't all that Ukraine's got. They still have a partial functioning Airforce and large army they could throw to the blender. They may try but it will prompt Russian response which they cannot afford as Russia would destroy them rather quickly. So they hope they could do "decapitation" strikes like they are showing us now, but they neither have the capabilities nor the resources to do it.

Ukraine is sucking turkeys dick for some TB2s so I was thinking Turkey might do the same to ukraine in assistance of that air defense developement. But still it does not change the fact that Russia is already 20 steps ahead in minauture missile developement for short range SAMs against small drones and developing cheap mass produced all aspect stealth drones that are expandable without the loss of life also being possible carriers of Larva-MD missiles which is already overkill in my opinion anyways against the new air defenses they are developing. Russia anticipated the oil pipeline in Syria and the Venezuela crisis to overthrow their leader, so I am sure they anticipated the air defense developements from both countries to develop big boy toys like Su-70 over children toys like TB2s. Turkey is also possibly purchasing ukrainian engines as much as everyone wants to laugh about for their TAI-TFX. Turkey just views Ukraine as an ally against Russia but expect both to fail miserably.

These are some parts of it. Ukraine doesn't have nearly half of that. Turkey is buying S-400 because they wont be able to build anything remotely half decent because if they could, they would have gone that route. They didn't. Its like Iran, saying they can build this or that. But they want to also import from Russia the same technology because Russian one actually works.

If you make everything yourself it is going to be expensive and not necessarily state of the art competitive with what is available from other countries.

Engines and optics are not easy or simple... it takes a real MIC base to get good in either of those and sometimes even when you have a good optics base you might have a weakness in some area or another.

A good example would the Thermal Imagers and Russia... Russia got a lot of optics from Belarus but also had their own optics base but they didn't really have any experience with state of the art thermal imagers. They managed to buy that technology and cooperation with Thales and other companies led them to developing and producing state of the art production facilities, which together with their other existing capabilities means they are practically up to date in world terms with thermal imaging systems... they have developed a range of systems that are currently pretty world class.

The same could be said for engines... they had a lag and got behind and there were gaps in their inventory that they previously bought from the Ukraine or from Eastern European countries that also made their lead in fighter trainers... L39s. They have since developed engines and aircraft and are in teh process of introducing helicopters to fill the gaps created by Mi-2 and L-39 and the naval and helicopter engines and An-124 transport aircraft and An-70 aircraft they were expecting to put into service and continue to use.

In fact they have turned it into an advantage because now they will be making those things themselves so exports don't rely on foreign countries OK and the new replacement systems like the new helicopter engines and new light helicopters and new jet trainers have better engines than the aircraft they are replacing designed from scratch to be new and world class.

For countries like Turkey and Iran their ability to produce world class engines is limited by access to such technology.

Russia will use the new engine technology across the board eventually being used in all their new and upgraded aircraft so the scope for implementation is huge and worth the effort and cost.

For Iran and Turkey buying off the shelf makes it affordable and more practical... but then they need to look at how they trust... the Ukraine is Americas bitch and could turn on Turkey or Iran at the drop of a hat despite needing work and needing cash.

The other sources for stuff would be the EU and China and Russia... China would be good for optics, but not leading edge in engines, whereas the EU has the same issues Ukraine has in that it is Americas bitch first and foremost... and both are hesitant to trust the Russians... given their history understandable in both directions.

Turkey is also possibly purchasing ukrainian engines as much as everyone wants to laugh about for their TAI-TFX. Turkey just views Ukraine as an ally against Russia but expect both to fail miserably.

Turkey is buying engines from the only country prepared to sell them to them that is not Russia.

Turkey is safe from US and EU and HATO wrath if it continues the facade of being anti Russia, but their obvious problem is that Russia would be a much better trade partner to Turkey and could provide much better engines and other equipment and systems than Ukraine.

If they want to piss Russia off then Russia has lots of buttons to push against Turkey too... South Stream might start having problems... bans that have been lifted regarding Turkish exports to Russia might be reimposed to help Russian tomato growers as an example.

https://lenta.ru/news/2021/11/10/prosba/

Представители Киева в экономической подгруппе по Донбассу попросили рассмотреть вопрос поставок электроэнергии и угля из самопровозглашенных республик Донбасса на коммерческой основе. Об этом сообщила пресс-секретарь делегации ЛНР Мария Ковшарь, передает РИА Новости.

Она уточнила, что вопрос о покупке энергоресурсов был поднят накануне, 9 ноября.

5 ноября депутат от партии «Батькивщина» Иван Крулько рассказал о вставших тепловых электростанциях (ТЭС) в стране. По его словам, сейчас на Украине есть 88 действующих энергоблоков ТЭС, из них на сегодняшний день 37 функционируют, а 51 не работают. Депутат отметил, что большая часть из прекративших работу энергоблоков закрыты по так называемой аварийной заявке, то есть из-за недостатка топлива.

Representatives of Kiev in the economic subgroup for Donbass were asked to consider the issue of supplying electricity and coal from the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass on a commercial basis. This was announced by the press secretary of the LPR delegation Maria Kovshar, RIA Novosti reports.

She clarified that the question of buying energy resources was raised the day before, on November 9.

On November 5, the deputy from the Batkivshchyna party, Ivan Krulko, spoke about the installed thermal power plants (TPP) in the country. According to him, now in Ukraine there are 88 operating power units of thermal power plants, of which 37 are functioning today, and 51 are not working. The deputy noted that most of the power units that stopped operating were closed according to the so-called emergency application, that is, due to a lack of fuel.

This is more and more interesting. Ukraine is in active war with LDNR for two weeks now and ukrainian army is increasing shelling of Donbass. On the other hand Ukraine now officially ask LDNR to sell coal and electricity. Who knows, if Ukraine didn't start this war to capture LDNR coal mines and TPPs to supply Ukraine with coal and electricity, but up to now they fail to reach their goal. Winter is coming and soon will be very low temperatures under 0^oC. Time for Ukrainian army is quickly running out. Ukraine have stocks for around a month, but after that with full winter... Without money, fuel, electricity, food, medicines,..., Ukrainian army will not be capable to fight in war for very long.

My thoughts on this is to question "Is this the best the Ukrainian forces can give if this was a desperate move to capture the coal mines?"

franco wrote:My thoughts on this is to question  "Is this the best the Ukrainian forces can give if this was a desperate move to capture the coal mines?"

This is exactly what I asked myself few days ago. Ukraine start new war in front of winter and Ukraine is in very bad position, with very low stocks of coal in TPPs, low gas flow in GTS, electricity shortages, no money, health system collaps and COVID explosion, empty grain warehouses,... To start such war, there is a good reason and an important goal to reach. As I said, time window is short and I'm sure Ukrainian generals know that. To win quickly they have to attack with full strenght they have. After two weeks of fighting, they lost surprise factor and achieve nothing for now. They don't have much time left, at the end of November, there will be freezing and stocks will start running out. EU and US doesn't want to give anything to Ukraine for free or to help them. They are alone in their troubles, which are mostly result of stupid politics of Zelensky government. For whole year they did nothing for their winter stocks and now they are desperate...



Plan for electricity reduction in Ukraine...

Meanwhile in #Kiev, #Ukraine:  Patona Bridge in the center of Ukrainian capital is crumbling due to chronic underinvestment in infrastructure, but there will always be enough money for war in #Donbass.

Olesa Medvedeva from Ukraine about Ukrainian army...

medo wrote:

Olesa Medvedeva from Ukraine about Ukrainian army...

Don't speak Russian so using auto translate captions.
From what I've gathered it says
Ukraine gov preparing for military solution to Donbass conflict
Critical lack of soldiers in all/most divisions,
officers act bestial to soldiers,
faulty APCs with lack of spare parts,
many units exist only on paper,
soldiers hate officers and vice versa,
motivation of contract soldiers low,
contract soldiers from last couple of years are in it solely for money and attempt to avoid officers,
officers do not know what contract soldiers are doing,
soldiers sneak away at night to drink,
problems with fights (amongst soldiers),
military equipment gets lost, or deteriates, or is sold to civilians cheap,
contract soldiers attempt to stay away from demarcation line,
volunteer soldiers who faught in 2014-16 all largely gone.

VARGR198 wrote:

medo wrote:

Olesa Medvedeva from Ukraine about Ukrainian army...

Don't speak Russian so using auto translate captions.
From what I've gathered it says
Ukraine gov preparing for military solution to Donbass conflict
Critical lack of soldiers in all/most divisions,
officers act bestial to soldiers,
faulty APCs with lack of spare parts,
many units exist only on paper,
soldiers hate officers and vice versa,
motivation of contract soldiers low,
contract soldiers from last couple of years are in it solely for money and attempt to avoid officers,
officers do not know what contract soldiers are doing,
soldiers sneak away at night to drink,
problems with fights (amongst soldiers),
military equipment gets lost, or deteriates, or is sold to civilians cheap,
contract soldiers attempt to stay away from demarcation line,
volunteer soldiers who faught in 2014-16 all largely gone.

Sounds like the american army in Vietnam.

You wrote right points. Bringing pieces together, we could get a picture, why Ukrainian lighting war went nowhere and why they are loosing time window to win the war... Ukrainian army is just mirroring the image of situation in the state of Ukraine as a whole... I don't think Ukraine start the war for fun, but to escape the collapse with capturing Donbass resources...

Ukraine calls for urgent help from Slovakia over power outage. The cause of action was the emergency shutdown of two units of the Burshtyn thermal power plant, western Ukraine..

VARGR198 wrote:Ukraine calls for urgent help from Slovakia over power outage. The cause of action was the emergency shutdown of two units of the Burshtyn thermal power plant, western Ukraine..

We are not even into December yet. It would be nice being a robber in Ukraine but there is probably nothing to rob.