Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+57
Yugo90
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E
Arkanghelsk
Krepost
Sujoy
calripson
d_taddei2
jhelb
dino00
andalusia
Mir
x_54_u43
ATLASCUB
zorobabel
Odin of Ossetia
Isos
Walther von Oldenburg
thegopnik
TMA1
nero
GreyHog
Karl Haushofer
JohninMK
GarryB
Firebird
littlerabbit
Russian_Patriot_
Big_Gazza
limb
medo
higurashihougi
Backman
owais.usmani
VARGR198
slasher
lyle6
Azi
Rodion_Romanovic
ChineseTiger
Arrow
ALAMO
Hannibal Barca
Vann7
franco
LMFS
par far
flamming_python
SeigSoloyvov
George1
Hole
lancelot
PapaDragon
Cowboy's daughter
miketheterrible
PhSt
auslander
kvs
61 posters

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    avatar
    par far


    Posts : 3496
    Points : 3741
    Join date : 2014-06-26

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  par far Sat Nov 13, 2021 1:44 am



    avatar
    nero


    Posts : 217
    Points : 217
    Join date : 2019-03-26

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  nero Sat Nov 13, 2021 11:21 am

    It is time to seriously start following this conflict again. As pointed out by Patrick Armstrong with some additions from me:

    • Nov 1st: Russian build-up on Ukraine border (Reported by US media)
    • Nov 2nd: CIA Director Burns goes to Moscow
    • Nov 3rd: Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrei Taran resigns
    • Nov 3rd: Far-right 'Right Sector' Dmytro Yarosh appointed as advisor to Comander-in-Chief
    • Nov 4th: US Official visits Kiev
    • Nov 4th: USS Mount Whitney Enters Black Sea (Command & Control Ship of US Navy)
    • Nov 5th - Now] Increased recon-flights over Black Sea, additional reports of Russian troop deployments


    "The region can already be viewed as a potential theater of war. The USS Mount Whitney command ship is known for its visits to trouble spots. It was seen near the coasts of Iraq and Libya, and visited the Black Sea in 2008, when a war broke out in South Ossetia. It sailed to our shores in 2014, too, after Crimea reunited with Russia," [military expert Vladislav Shurygin] added.

    There are various reports on Telegram that Russian armed forces are moving during the night, which would indicate that some kind of preparations (likely retaliatory in-case of a Ukrainian attack) are being made. Remember that most of the inventory is already at the front, as it was left over from the previous defense exercise.

    What is more indicative of a pending offensive by the Ukrainians is that these actions are done during the night. Acc. to some Telegram sources, they are being moved by 'elite units of the armed forces' (w/e 'elite' means I am not sure; likely to keep information tight.

    There are some rumors that due to the energy crisis in Ukraine, they want to take back the coal mines in Donbas, in order to have an additional source of fuel that they can ramp up/down production of. Whilst this might be reported as 'the real reason' of the offensive - I remain sceptical. I predict that any offensive would materialize because the United States wants to dick-about.

    Peripheral interest:

    Russia has started to spread-out their deployment in Syria and has deployed S-300/S-400's to Al Tabqa AFB. Note that it is more difficult to gauge what is deployed there in full as it is more remote than Khmeimim AFB/International Airport. As I have noted in previous posts in the Syrian thread, this is something you should look out for when predicting offensive operations in Syria.

    It is possible (though currently unlikely) that the Turkish Armed Forces will coordinate their offensive with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with which they already cooperate in terms of defense-related equipment procurement and production. Maybe the hope is that the Russian Armed Forces would be less likely to interfere if there is an ongoing operation in Ukraine.

    JohninMK, VARGR198 and LMFS like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15669
    Points : 15810
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 13, 2021 12:13 pm

    nero wrote:
    Maybe the hope is that the Russian Armed Forces would be less likely to interfere if there is an ongoing operation in Ukraine.

    Quite the reverse I'd say. They are not in the same military district so, the military being the military, they would be in a competition with each other to see who gets the 'glory' (otherwise known as the juicy career step-ups) Very Happy

    miketheterrible likes this post

    miketheterrible
    miketheterrible


    Posts : 7383
    Points : 7341
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  miketheterrible Sat Nov 13, 2021 5:12 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    nero wrote:
    Maybe the hope is that the Russian Armed Forces would be less likely to interfere if there is an ongoing operation in Ukraine.

    Quite the reverse I'd say. They are not in the same military district so, the military being the military, they would be in a competition with each other to see who gets the 'glory' (otherwise known as the juicy career step-ups)  Very Happy

    Biggest misconception is that Russia has 1 Armed force in all directions. Russia has different commands and different forces in each direction. This has made them far more effective and able to operate on multiple fronts. It's like multiple little armies that combine to the total of Russian armed forces as a whole.

    Then also, National Guard would get involved too. And that would be really bad for Ukraine and Turkey (turkey relies too much on Russia so it would be suicide for them) as those guys really are effective and we'll trained.

    VARGR198 likes this post

    medo
    medo


    Posts : 4343
    Points : 4423
    Join date : 2010-10-24
    Location : Slovenia

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  medo Sat Nov 13, 2021 5:26 pm

    https://strana.news/news/362005-nekhvatka-uhlja-v-ukraine-prostaivajut-60-moshchnostej-tes-tsentrenerho.html

    По состоянию на утро субботы, 13 ноября, в Украине из-за нехватки угля простаивают 60% мощностей государственных ТЭС компании "Центэнерго". Об этом сообщает пресс-служба "Укрэнерго".

    Так, не работают из-за отсутствия угля рекордные 14 энергоблоков следующих ТЭС:
    •Луганская – 15 энергоблок;
    •Углегорская – 2, 4, 6, 7 энергоблоки;
    •Криворожская – 5 энергоблок;
    •Закарпатская – 5, 7 энергоблоки;
    •Змиевская – 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 энергоблоки;
    •Харьковская ТЭЦ-5 – 3 энергоблок;
    •Триполськая – 4, 5, 6 энергоблоки;
    •Киевская ТЭЦ-5 – 1, 3, 4 энергоблоки;
    •Киевская ТЭЦ-6 – 1, 2 энергоблоки.

    Уточним, что на государственных ТЭС нагрузку несут всего 3 энергоблока из 23, что составляет около 10% от их мощности. В то же время на частных ТЭС из-за отсутствия угля не работают 4 блока.

    As of Saturday morning, November 13, 60% of the capacities of the state-owned thermal power plants of the company "Centenergo" are idle in Ukraine due to the lack of coal. This was reported by the press service of Ukrenergo.

    Thus, the record 14 power units of the following TPPs do not work due to the lack of coal:
    • Luhansk - 15 power unit;
    • Uglegorskaya - 2, 4, 6, 7 power units;
    • Krivorozhskaya - 5 power unit;
    • Transcarpathian - 5, 7 power units;
    • Zmievskaya - 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 power units;
    • Kharkiv CHPP-5 - 3rd power unit;
    • Tripolskaya - 4, 5, 6 power units;
    • Kiev CHPP-5 - 1, 3, 4 power units;
    • Kiev CHPP-6 - 1, 2 power units.

    Let us clarify that only 3 out of 23 power units carry the load at state-owned thermal power plants, which is about 10% of their capacity. At the same time, 4 units do not work at private thermal power plants due to the lack of coal.


    https://strana.news/news/361820-chem-ukraine-hrozjat-veernye-otkljuchenija-elektroenerhii.html

    В Украине готовятся к веерным отключениям электроэнергии.

    Мы уже писали, что предприятия Черкасской области начали получать графики почасового отключения света.

    Как рассказывают предприниматели, такие графики приходят предпринимателям и в других областях. В частности, глава SAVEФОП Сергей Доротич подтвердил нам наличие таких "писем счастья" в Полтавской области.

    Вчера о возможности вверных отключений в столице предупредил мэр Киева Виталий Кличко.

    "Если морозы продержатся несколько недель при температуре минус 15, вероятность веерных отключений, которых не было 20 лет, очень высока", - сказал Кличко.

    Такая угроза связана в дефицитом угля и газа, который уже констатируют на 12 предприятиях, производящих электроэнергию и тепло, - пояснил Кличко.

    Впрочем, официально в правительстве возможность веерных отключений продолжают отрицать. Премьер-министр Денис Шмыгаль в эфире программы "Право на власть" заверил, что по состоянию на сегодня нет оснований для веерных отключений. А Кличко он обвинил в дезинформации.

    О том, что речь о веерных отключениях не идет, уверяют и в пресс-службе компании "Укрэнерго".

    Между тем бизнес и люди уже в панике.

    "В регионах очень боятся отключений электроэнергии, тем более что по многим населенным пунктам они уже фактически идут, хоть и не называются веерными. В частности, участились перебои с электричеством в Сумской области. Мы переживаем не только об отключениях электроэнергии, но и о последствиях - котлы отопления могут перегреваться и взрываться", - говорит нам глава концерна "Ярослав" Александр Барсук.

    Разбирались, готовятся ли в Украине веерные отключения.

    Без электроэнергии - по 8 часов в сутки

    Большой график почасового отключения электроэнергии получили предприятия Черкасской области. И поделились им со "Страной".

    В нем указано, что, к примеру, Черкасский завод железобетонных изделий, "Черкассырыба", Черкасский завод автохимии и другие могут остаться без электроэнергии с полуночи до 2 часов, затем с 6 до 8 утра, с 12.00 до 14.00 и с 18.00 до 20.00. То есть в общей сложности подачу электроэнергии могут ограничивать 8 часов в сутки.

    "Черкассыэлеваторторг", "Втормет", Облагрохим, лакокрасочный завод "Аврора" и другие могут остаться без электричества с 2 до 4 часов ночи, затем с 8.00 до 10.00, с 14.00 до 16.00 и с 20.00 до 22.00, итого - те же 8 часов в сутки.

    Эти же периоды отключений указаны не только для предприятий, но и для целых улиц, то есть и для населения (улицы Хоменко, Вернигоры, Танкистов, Смелянская, Павла Бута, Десантников и др.)

    Также есть другие временные периоды по отключениям: с 4.00 до 6.00, с 10.00 до 12.00, с 16.00 до 18.00, с 22.00 до 24.00.

    То есть график составлен таким образом, что в течение суток разные предприятий и районы города будут отключать в общей сложности на 8 часов.

    Сам график составлен еще в июне этого года, но рассылать его стали только сейчас.

    "В существовании самих графиков по ограничению потребления нет ничего удивительного. Их должны составлять на случай разного рода ЧП. Но, как правило, за стены городской администрации такие графики не выходят. А тот факт, что сейчас их начинают рассылать, говорит о том, что время "Ч" таки не исключается", - говорит наш источник на энергорынке.

    Для предприятий "письма счастья" по электроэнергии стали полнейшим сюрпризом - за последние пару десятилетий они их не получали. Поэтому сразу запаниковали. Считают, что это уже не просто предупреждение "на всякий случай", а реальная угроза отключений.

    Примечательно, что никаких дат по отключениям в графике не указано - только временные промежутки.

    "Если рассылают, то, значит, не знают точно период отключений, и на протяжении какого времени они могут длиться. Скорее всего, будут по март следующего года. И это уже планируется, иначе, если бы речь шла о неожиданных сбоях, ни о чем бы не предупреждали - просто отключали бы, и все", - говорит аналитик Института стратегических исследований Юрий Корольчук.

    Такие графики получают и в других регионах, - сказал нам Доротич.

    В частности, уведомления об ограничении электроснабжения получают предприятия Полтавской области. А в Киевской области увеличили предоплату за электроэнергию - если ранее брали по среднему потреблению, то сейчас - согласно установленных лимитов.

    Александр Барсук говорит, что графики пока не получали, но по Сумской области участились отключения света, поэтому предчувствия и у бизнеса, и у людей - не самые лучшие.

    "Все боятся отключений. Тут не только вопрос электричества, но и отопления. Котлы могут пострадать, вплоть до перегрева и взрывов", - говорит он.

    "Открывают ящик Пандоры"

    Отметим, что эксперты уже давно предупреждали - этой зимой риски веерных отключений резко возрастут, особенно, если будут морозы и увеличение потребления электроэнергии.

    Угля на отечественных ТЭС меньше 500 тысяч тонн, и взять его в нужных объемах фактически негде. Импорт электроэнергии, который пошел к нам из Беларуси, немного разгрузит энергосистему, но полностью проблему не решит - технически можно поставлять только 900 мегаватт часов, а этого мало.

    Как говорит Корольчук, с белорусским импортом мы продержимся до декабря, а затем нужно поднимать вопрос поставок электроэнергии из России (оттуда технически есть возможность поставлять вдвое больше электроэнергии, чем из Беларуси). Но пока этот вопрос на паузе, хотя "Укрэнерго" и разыграла месячные аукционы на межгосударственное сечение в направлении РФ.

    Однако здесь может быть ситуация, что РФ не будет поставлять электроэнергию по политическим причинам.

    Корольчук удивляется, что власти до сих пор не объявляют чрезвычайную ситуацию в энергетике.

    Между тем официально не только не объявляется чрезвычайная ситуация, но и, наоборот, власти опровергают саму возможность веерных отключений и винят в раздувании паники политиков, олигархов и СМИ. Об этом заявлял в своем видеобращении президент Владимир Зеленский. Те же мэсседжи повторил премьер-министр Денис Шмыгаль. А заявления киевского мэра Кличко о том, что веерные отключения все же возможны, Шмыгаль назвал дезинформацией.

    "Спросите у мэра Кличко, откуда он берет эту дезинформацию, и почему убежден, что у него начнутся какие-то веерные отключения", - сказал Шмыгаль в эфире программы "Право на власть".

    Между тем на рынке на сутки вперед сохраняется дефицит предложения электроэнергии в пиковые часы. К примеру, 11 ноября дефицитными были часы с 17.00 до 21.00. Хотя в целом за счет белорусского импорта предложение электроэнергии увеличилось.

    Но так как в пиковые часы дефицит, цены на электроэнергию зашкаливают. Уже были случаи, когда электричество покупали выше установленных НКРЭ прайс-кэпов (2-4 тысячи за мегаватт) - по порядка 4,1 тысячи гривен. И это в Украине еще не было настоящих морозов. С похолоданием ситуация станет еще более сложной.

    По словам Доротича, для бизнеса и экономики в целом веерные отключения - это просто катастрофа.

    "Представьте, вам на несколько часов в день отключают электроэнергию. Все производственные процессы останавливаются. Придется менять график работы, подстраиваясь под веерные отключения. Следом рушатся графики поставок и логистики. Плюс есть угроза, что на деле эти графики отключений соблюдаться не будут - скажут, отключат в одно время, а на практике вырубит в другое. То есть может так случиться, что рабочих нет - электроэнергия есть, а как только люди пришли - свет вырубили. Судиться с поставщиками крайне сложно. У них в руках рубильник, а "сильно умным" могут отключить свет и на несколько суток, ссылаясь на обрыв на линии или еще какую-нибудь аварийную ситуацию.

    Это настоящий ящик Пандоры, закрыть который будет очень сложно. Сбой в одном производственном процессе по цепочке тянет за собой сбои в смежных отраслях. Могут возникнуть перебои с поставками товаров, то есть в магазинах опустеют полки. Чем это закончится для экономики - остается только гадать. Может быть очень большой спад", - говорит Доротич.

    Ukraine is preparing for rolling power outages.

    We already wrote that the enterprises of the Cherkasy region began to receive schedules of hourly power outages.

    As entrepreneurs say, such charts come to entrepreneurs in other areas as well. In particular, the head of SAVEFOP Sergei Dorotich confirmed to us the existence of such "letters of happiness" in the Poltava region.

    Yesterday, the mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, warned about the possibility of false blackouts in the capital.

    "If the frosts persist for several weeks at a temperature of minus 15, the probability of rolling blackouts, which has not happened for 20 years, is very high," Klitschko said.

    Such a threat is associated with a shortage of coal and gas, which is already being stated at 12 enterprises that produce electricity and heat, Klitschko explained.

    However, officially, the government continues to deny the possibility of rolling blackouts. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal, on the air of the Right to Power program, assured that as of today there are no grounds for rolling blackouts. And he accused Klitschko of disinformation.

    The press service of Ukrenergo also assures that there is no talk of rolling blackouts.

    Meanwhile, business and people are already in a panic.

    "In the regions, they are very afraid of power outages, especially since they are actually going on in many settlements, although they are not called rolling. In particular, power outages in the Sumy region have become more frequent. We are worried not only about power outages, but also about the consequences - heating boilers can overheat and explode, "says the head of the Yaroslav concern, Alexander Barsuk.

    We were figuring out whether rolling blackouts are being prepared in Ukraine.

    Without electricity - 8 hours a day

    Enterprises of the Cherkasy region received a large schedule of hourly power outages. And shared it with "Strana".

    It states that, for example, the Cherkasy plant of reinforced concrete products, Cherkassyryba, the Cherkasy plant of autochemistry and others may be left without electricity from midnight to 2:00, then from 6 to 8 in the morning, from 12:00 to 14:00 and from 18:00 to 20:00. That is, in total, the supply of electricity can be limited to 8 hours a day.

    "Cherkassyelevatortorg", "Vtormet", Oblagrokhim, paint and varnish plant "Aurora" and others may be left without electricity from 2 to 4 am, then from 8.00 to 10.00, from 14.00 to 16.00 and from 20.00 to 22.00, in total - the same 8 hours per day.

    The same shutdown periods are indicated not only for enterprises, but also for entire streets, that is, for the population (Khomenko, Vernigory, Tankistov, Smelyanskaya, Pavel Buta, Desantnikov streets, etc.)

    There are also other time periods for outages: from 4.00 to 6.00, from 10.00 to 12.00, from 16.00 to 18.00, from 22.00 to 24.00.

    That is, the schedule is drawn up in such a way that during the day, various enterprises and city districts will be disconnected for a total of 8 hours.

    The schedule itself was drawn up back in June this year, but it was only sent out now.

    "There is nothing surprising in the existence of the schedules for limiting consumption. They should be drawn up in case of various kinds of emergency. But, as a rule, such schedules do not go beyond the walls of the city administration. And the fact that now they are being sent out suggests that time "H" is not ruled out, "says our source in the energy market.

    For enterprises "letters of happiness" on electricity came as a complete surprise - they have not received them over the past couple of decades. Therefore, they immediately panicked. It is believed that this is no longer just a warning "just in case", but a real threat of blackouts.

    It is noteworthy that no dates for outages are indicated in the schedule - only time intervals.

    "If they send out, it means that they do not know exactly the period of outages, and how long they can last. Most likely, they will be until March next year. And this is already planned, otherwise, if it was about unexpected failures, nothing I wouldn’t warn you, they would simply turn it off, and that’s all, ”says Yuriy Korolchuk, an analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies.

    Such schedules are also received in other regions, - Dorotich told us.

    In particular, enterprises of the Poltava region receive notifications about the restriction of electricity supply. And in the Kiev region, the prepayment for electricity was increased - if earlier they were taken according to the average consumption, now they are in accordance with the established limits.

    Alexander Barsuk says that they have not received schedules yet, but power outages have become more frequent in the Sumy region, so both business and people do not have the best presentiments.

    “Everyone is afraid of blackouts. It’s not only a matter of electricity, but also heating. Boilers can suffer, up to overheating and explosions,” he says.

    "Opening Pandora's Box"

    Note that experts have long warned that this winter the risks of rolling blackouts will increase sharply, especially if there is frost and an increase in electricity consumption.

    Coal at domestic thermal power plants is less than 500 thousand tons, and there is virtually nowhere to take it in the required volumes. The import of electricity, which came to us from Belarus, will slightly unload the energy system, but will not completely solve the problem - those

    VARGR198 and LMFS like this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 40579
    Points : 41081
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  GarryB Sun Nov 14, 2021 4:00 am

    It is time to seriously start following this conflict again. As pointed out by Patrick Armstrong with some additions from me:


    Nov 1st: Russian build-up on Ukraine border (Reported by US media)
    Nov 2nd: CIA Director Burns goes to Moscow.

    Problem is that as mentioned in the video above your post the claims of a Russian build up have proven false... some units were moved in a different area, and the initial reports of (Russian) movements and troop build ups were refuted by the Russians and by the Ukrainians... so I think that is just BS.

    This CIA director did go to Moscow but AFAIK only spoke to Putin over the phone and was met by much lower level officials... and was essentially told that any troop movements within the borders of the Russian federation are none of the US or anyone elses business.

    They also said they are not planning any attacks but are ready to respond to provocations... which is a simple and very clear warning to the Orcs not to try anything.

    As also mentioned in that video it sounds like opposition to the current stance against Russia is growing from more directions, so they clearly are not happy with the suffering they are enduring to be nice effective pawns for the US and EU in their stupid chess game against Russia.

    This is being suggested as a potential reason for Kiev to do something in desperation, but it also suggests that their time has run out if there are political divisions appearing their problems in their military would be even worse and now have potential political support while the more radical nutters have less political support.

    This might be the winter where all the trees in the Ukraine start to disappear and the sale of wood stoves massively increases... and they start to inject some realism into their relations with Russia and the West.

    The bitter pill for them is that the west is bipolar... you are either with us or you are with the terrorists, so relations with the west are unlikely to survive improving relations with Russia even if they are freezing and starving... the west doesn't care about Ukrainians it can't use against Russia.

    VARGR198 likes this post

    avatar
    owais.usmani


    Posts : 1829
    Points : 1825
    Join date : 2019-03-27
    Age : 38

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  owais.usmani Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:36 am

    medo
    medo


    Posts : 4343
    Points : 4423
    Join date : 2010-10-24
    Location : Slovenia

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  medo Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:53 am

    The war in Donbass now lasted for three weeks and not many news from there...
    franco
    franco


    Posts : 7059
    Points : 7085
    Join date : 2010-08-18

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  franco Mon Nov 15, 2021 9:53 pm

    Putin signs into law allowing open access to the Russia market for two Donbass republics.

    https://ria.ru/20211115/sertifikaty-1759192561.html

    GarryB, VARGR198 and LMFS like this post

    franco
    franco


    Posts : 7059
    Points : 7085
    Join date : 2010-08-18

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  franco Mon Nov 15, 2021 10:40 pm

    medo wrote:The war in Donbass now lasted for three weeks and not many news from there...

    You have to wonder what the end game is here. This has been a half ass show, perhaps a distraction re some other plan. The western blogger experts are either fighting for their next year Atlantic Council grants etc or just putting on a show for some other purpose... a whole lot of crying over troops on the Ukrainian border and the poor refugees on the Belarus Polish border. A lot of the crying has lately been focused on troop and equipment build up at Yelnya which is near Smolensk and not near the Ukrainian border. However it is near the Belarus border, perhaps in case NATO and the EU are planning another coup attempt on Lukashenko... who knows but a lot of noise is being made about nothing.

    kvs, VARGR198 and miketheterrible like this post

    miketheterrible
    miketheterrible


    Posts : 7383
    Points : 7341
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  miketheterrible Mon Nov 15, 2021 11:08 pm

    franco wrote:
    medo wrote:The war in Donbass now lasted for three weeks and not many news from there...

    You have to wonder what the end game is here. This has been a half ass show, perhaps a distraction re some other plan. The western blogger experts are either fighting for their next year Atlantic Council grants etc or just putting on a show for some other purpose... a whole lot of crying over troops on the Ukrainian border and the poor refugees on the Belarus Polish border. A lot of the crying has lately been focused on troop and equipment build up at Yelnya which is near Smolensk and not near the Ukrainian border. However it is near the Belarus border, perhaps in case NATO and the EU are planning another coup attempt on Lukashenko... who knows but a lot of noise is being made about nothing.

    It's a show.

    Majority of people have zero knowledge of geography so they would not know where exactly is close to Russian Ukrainian border and what not. So it's to make sure their own people are on the hate Russia bandwagon

    par far and VARGR198 like this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 40579
    Points : 41081
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  GarryB Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:39 am

    Putin signs into law allowing open access to the Russia market for two Donbass republics.

    Actually that is vastly more important than it sounds.

    With the two Donbass republics having no access to the neighbouring Russian market both regions would be dependent essentially on the Ukraine for most trade... a bit like the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was to Georgia.

    The peace agreement in that region meant Russia could not openly trade with each region as they were considered to be part of Georgia.

    The independence of Kosovo is what changed things in Georgia... Russia opened its markets to South Ossetia and Abkhazia and so their economies flourished and all of a sudden they really didn't need close ties with Georgia any more so the tie eater was forced to either accept losing them forever or to gamble on a quick invasion to seize the territory of the weaker state (South Ossetia) in the hope of overwhelming them fast and making resistance or Russian action ineffective to change the situation back.

    We know the final result there.

    If things improve in these breakaway Ukrainian regions economically then other areas in the Ukraine might consider the same, and these regions will certainly no longer need Kiev for anything at all making them rather too independent.

    A rash attempt to invade like the tie eater could seal the deal the way it did in Georgia.

    Which makes this a vastly more bold move than it was last time... which seemed more a response to Kosovo declaring independence... but obviously they realised it might force the ongoing border problems and shelling etc etc.

    Hannibal Barca, kvs, JohninMK, VARGR198, miketheterrible and LMFS like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15669
    Points : 15810
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:51 am

    GarryB wrote:
    Putin signs into law allowing open access to the Russia market for two Donbass republics.

    Actually that is vastly more important than it sounds.

    Open access into Russia for Donbas coal, which will really piss Kiev off.

    GarryB, PapaDragon and VARGR198 like this post

    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 15876
    Points : 16011
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Turdope's Kanada

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  kvs Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:22 pm



    While the NATzO fake stream media is making a stink over Russian troops "moving to Ukraine's borders", the
    Kiev regime is massing troops on the border of the Donbass and is also preparing a "legal" framework for
    the ethnic cleansing campaign it plans.   Recall Operations Flash and Storm in the mid 1990s when Croatia
    ethnically cleansed Serbs from Krajina and both east and west Slavonia.  

    The "legal" document that Kiev is drafting declares Russia as a military aggressor in the Donbass and
    defines Donbass residents as criminals for resisting its "legitimate" rule.

    NATzO green-lighted the operations in Croatia and now is doing the same in Banderastan.

    VARGR198 and LMFS like this post

    miketheterrible
    miketheterrible


    Posts : 7383
    Points : 7341
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  miketheterrible Tue Nov 16, 2021 4:29 pm

    well, they may get their wish soon if Ukraine does try to roll in, the Russians may push their shit in.
    higurashihougi
    higurashihougi


    Posts : 3420
    Points : 3507
    Join date : 2014-08-13
    Location : A small and cutie S-shaped land.

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  higurashihougi Tue Nov 16, 2021 5:31 pm

    (......................................)

    Simply I am unable to find any words to comment.

    https://www.rt.com/russia/540415-eu-leaders-prepare-for-war/

    Ukraine tells EU leaders: Prepare for war with Russia

    Paris and Berlin must brace themselves for a potential outbreak of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, Kiev’s foreign minister has warned amid unsubstantiated rumors Moscow is building up its military forces at the shared border.
    Dmitry Kuleba sounded the alarm on Monday during a meeting with his Western counterparts, saying that the West would have to avoid being tied up in bureaucracy in the event of a conflict. “If Russia starts acting, you simply won’t have time physically to coordinate, to go through all the bureaucratic procedures, to coordinate decisions,” he said.

    “So please do the preparatory work now, because if the military scenario happens, there will simply be no time,” he urged his French and German counterparts, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Heiko Maas.

    GarryB and LMFS like this post

    miketheterrible
    miketheterrible


    Posts : 7383
    Points : 7341
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  miketheterrible Tue Nov 16, 2021 5:43 pm

    The Europeans than gave him a cookie and sent him on his way. To which the French and Germans laughed and came to same conclusion that Ukraine is screwed one way or another.

    LMFS and bitch_killer like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15669
    Points : 15810
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:55 pm

    Distraction now out of the way.

    Yörük Işık
    @YorukIsik
    ·
    15 Nov
    .@USNavyEurope
    Blue Ridge-class USS Mount Whitney departs BlackSea & transits Bosphorus carrying Helicopter Sea Combat Sq TWO EIGHT #DragonWhales Sikorsky MH-60S Seahawk. LCC20 is the Command Ship for SIXTHFLT, JointCommand Lisbon, STRIKFORNATO #StrongerTogether #OurManInÇırağan
    PapaDragon
    PapaDragon


    Posts : 13479
    Points : 13519
    Join date : 2015-04-26
    Location : Fort Evil, Serbia

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  PapaDragon Tue Nov 16, 2021 9:24 pm

    higurashihougi wrote:.........Ukraine tells EU leaders: Prepare for war with Russia

    Paris and Berlin must brace themselves for a potential outbreak of fighting between Russia and Ukraine...

    I am sure that in case of war between the Ukraine and Russia both Paris and Berlin will be just fine

    Kiev though...



    GarryB, Isos, miketheterrible and thegopnik like this post

    Hole
    Hole


    Posts : 11132
    Points : 11110
    Join date : 2018-03-24
    Age : 48
    Location : Scholzistan

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  Hole Tue Nov 16, 2021 10:09 pm

    It´s not the russian way to bomb a city just because it´s the capital. They will hit military targets, including communication nodes outside of the city, keeping the "decvision makers" '( Laughing Laughing Laughing ) in the dark what is happening only a few kilometres away.

    Why bomb the presidental palace or parliament if it is much more fun to watch dumbass politicians running around blind and deaf?
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 15669
    Points : 15810
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:26 pm

    Hole wrote:It´s not the russian way to bomb a city just because it´s the capital. They will hit military targets, including communication nodes outside of the city, keeping the "decvision makers" '( Laughing Laughing Laughing ) in the dark what is happening only a few kilometres away.

    Why bomb the presidental palace or parliament if it is much more fun to watch dumbass politicians running around blind and deaf?

    I can think of one target in Kiev that richly deserves demolition, the SBU HQ.

    GarryB and kvs like this post

    franco
    franco


    Posts : 7059
    Points : 7085
    Join date : 2010-08-18

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  franco Tue Nov 16, 2021 11:57 pm

    JohninMK wrote: I can think of one target in Kiev that richly deserves demolition, the SBU HQ.

    Sounds good however last that I heard, the CIA occupied one floor angel

    kvs and JohninMK like this post

    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 15876
    Points : 16011
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Turdope's Kanada

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  kvs Wed Nov 17, 2021 12:31 am

    franco wrote:
    JohninMK wrote: I can think of one target in Kiev that richly deserves demolition, the SBU HQ.

    Sounds good however last that I heard, the CIA occupied one floor angel  

    Two for the price of one special.

    GarryB, JohninMK, miketheterrible and Hole like this post

    Isos
    Isos


    Posts : 11605
    Points : 11573
    Join date : 2015-11-06

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  Isos Wed Nov 17, 2021 1:54 pm

    Deborah Haynes
    @haynesdeborah
    ·
    7h
    NEW: Britain & Ukraine have finalised a treaty that will enable 🇺🇦 to seek loans from 🇬🇧 to buy British warships & missiles at a time of heightened tensions with Russia.
    On Ukraine's shopping list are 2 minehunters, 8 missile ships, a frigate + weapons

    GarryB likes this post

    miketheterrible
    miketheterrible


    Posts : 7383
    Points : 7341
    Join date : 2016-11-06

    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  miketheterrible Wed Nov 17, 2021 3:38 pm

    Isos wrote:Deborah Haynes
    @haynesdeborah
    ·
    7h
    NEW: Britain & Ukraine have finalised a treaty that will enable 🇺🇦 to seek loans from 🇬🇧 to buy British warships & missiles at a time of heightened tensions with Russia.
    On Ukraine's shopping list are 2 minehunters, 8 missile ships, a frigate + weapons

    Wow.

    A frigate? Probably not.  Those are stupid expensive unless its some old dilapidated one.  A loan Ukraine wont be able to repay of course.

    I do wonder, do Ukrainians actually think that those measly ships and weapons they want to purchase will actually scare Russians? Those vessels would be sunk within minutes by the kilo's in the area alone. Not to mention Russia's coastal systems.

    GarryB, kvs, VARGR198 and Hole like this post


    Sponsored content


    The Situation in the Ukraine. #30 - Page 18 Empty Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Mon Nov 25, 2024 8:32 am