The Situation in the Ukraine. #30

ATLASCUB wrote:Good article on power dynamics from a russophile... and not the Russian propaganda garbage out there where somehow, pro-russian propaganda is equated to Putin criticism. Can't fix stupid for those deep into the Putin personality cult.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/biden-putin-meeting-is-a-cliffhanger/

Legal security guarantees on paper....good luck fellas.

The desperation among the Russian oligarchs is kind of reaching critical mass. Just like the empire wants it.

I don't think Putin's offer was a sign of desperation

Anything that can avoid war is worth it, and at least Russia can go down on record as having floated a peace initiative. This is customary for Russian and earlier Soviet diplomacy.

There is also no urgency at the moment about such a NATO-Russian treaty. The immediate threat is the Ukrainian invasion of the Donbass and this is what will be discussed between Putin and Biden. Without control of that territory, the Ukraine cannot move forward with NATO membership, at least not until NATO bends its own rules (which it might eventually).

ATLASCUB wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:Good article on power dynamics from a russophile... and not the Russian propaganda garbage out there where somehow, pro-russian propaganda is equated to Putin criticism. Can't fix stupid for those deep into the Putin personality cult.

https://www.indianpunchline.com/biden-putin-meeting-is-a-cliffhanger/

Legal security guarantees on paper....good luck fellas.

The desperation among the Russian oligarchs is kind of reaching critical mass. Just like the empire wants it.

I don't think Putin's offer was a sign of desperation

Anything that can avoid war is worth it, and at least Russia can go down on record as having floated a peace initiative. This is customary for Russian and earlier Soviet diplomacy.

There is also no urgency at the moment about such a NATO-Russian treaty. The immediate threat is the Ukrainian invasion of the Donbass and this is what will be discussed between Putin and Biden. Without control of that territory, the Ukraine cannot move forward with NATO membership, at least not until NATO bends its own rules (which it might eventually).

Russia wants to avoid war. The U.S is pushing war to extract strategic concessions.

If Russia wants to avoid it, Washington will want something in return. If Russia wants "legal security guarantees on paper", Washington will want A LOT in return for that.

The idea that Russia will get everything and the empire will walk empty handed by somehow been outclassed by 5D chess grandmaster Putin is a dimwits pipedreams. The man got toyed with in Ukraine twice and is still reeling from the ineptness of letting the whole thing take place twice while holding the majority of the cards then - now paper dust. But but.... "it was inevitable".... yet somehow Belarus wasn't inevitable, Cuba wasn't. More like getting caught with your pants down twice, and not being smart enough to combat the enemies stratagems properly at the time. In other words outmaneuvered, outclassed. The Iranians had to go to the Kremlin with a plan for Syria just so Russia could get involved.... despite knowing for a fact the intentions of powers behind the whole regime change push. That is, export terrorism and build a pipeline crossing Syria, through Turkey to **** over Gazprom/Russia. Give me a fucking break.

Russia won't get shit for free. If Russia doesn't cave somewhere, then all Washington has to do is let the dogs of war unleashed or continue its anti-Russian project there, at its current pace or accelerate it. They set the clock. Ukraine is expendable.

Here's what I'm 100% sure about. A Russian oligarch/banker cares significantly more about being disconnected from the Swift and losing billions than say witnessing a slaughter of the Donbas or other Russian people abroad. It's an easy choice for such people - the overwhelming majority of them. That's what Russia signed up for when they decided to become a classical capitalistic oligarchy like those of the West. The only thing arbitrating between them and the people is indeed Putin and the Russian intelligence apparatus. As we've seen with the degradation of the empire, we know who ultimately wins out that power tussle, and it's usually not the people.

What does the U.S want?

Throw under the bus roulette:

Cuba
Venezuela etc..
Latin America as a whole.
Any "ally" really.
Extend gas transit in Ukraine.

Grand prize: Ditch China.

Putin's choice to make.

Russia floated the NATO-Russia treaty as a starting position for bargaining. Sort of like setting the price too high at a bazaar as you know the customers will try and negotiate down.

It's not an urgent issue. The urgent issue is avoiding any Ukrainian offensive on the Donbass and that's what Putin will try and squeeze out of Biden, in actuality, as well as an agreement to avoid NATO moving assets into the Ukraine, any missiles, etc... 'under the radar' so to speak.

Putin gets that and he will be happy. The US and pals can keep the Ukraine, time is not on the regime's side there.

About giving up Venezuela, Cuba, China, whatever - on what basis? Putin has no reason to trade them away. Again, I repeat, this negotiation is over NATO extending itself into the Ukraine and the Ukraine extending itself into the Donbass and what will happen if they try. If they don't try, then there's no problem. Russia wants to preserve the status-quo, but it has no intentions of giving up any allies in return just to keep said status-quo, such blackmail won't work. If Biden insists on it, then he'll be rejected and will have to give the Ukraine the green light to try for an invasion of Donetsk and Lugansk to act out his threat, and at that stage Russia will just take Kiev's forces out.

A trade only makes sense if the other side gives something and you give something. If the other side tries to blackmail you with a war in return for you ditching your friends, then you tell them to f-off. Putin has never given up his friends nor personal ones, nor national ones, and he's not going to start doing so.

And you are entirely correct that the ones keeping the oligarchs in line are Putin and the intelligence agencies. Them and the Russian foreign ministry establishment, and the Defense Ministry. The oligarch's interests are respected, but no-one's giving them the keys to the house. International politics and alliances are worth much more money, as it comes down to gaining and losing entire territories, markets and so on.

No, India is a broken toilet, a dysfunctional dumpster-fire of a nation. It has no potential to be Chinas equal. The Indian elites are some of the most corrupt on the planet, and being infected by the caste system, they hate the very people they are supposed to be representing.

Even if what you say is true, the elites in the UK and US and France and most other countries are rather more corrupt and hate the people they are supposed to be representing... giving them the vote so they have an illusion of accountability and power for the people, when there are generally only two real choices in any country anyway what difference does it make?

50 years ago China was a broken toilet, but some lucky breaks and good decisions and any country can turn things around.... even the US.

The US promises huge sanctions on Russia when will attack Ukraine .Also disconnect for swift. What a stupidity of the USA. Russia does not plan to invade Ukraine unless Ukraine will start the war.

If Russia gets involved in any way in any conflict in the Ukraine it will be declared an invasion, just as Russian VDV troops already stationed in South Ossetia attacked by Georgian artillery were declared a Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008.

The amusing thing is that by now everything that might work as a sanction has been tried... cutting Russia out of SWIFT just creates an alternative to SWIFT that the US and West has no control over which actually weakens the west more than the Russians... western companies wanting Russian Gas or Oil or Titanium or other materials and products will then need to join this new system if they want to continue to buy resources from Russia... and they weren't doing it for charity to help Russia out.

It also gives Putin an excellent opportunity to use sanctions in return to break things Russia has signed and followed but is not to Russian advantage any more...

That perhaps is the point... to force Russia to not get involved when Ukraine attempts their final solution for the Donbass.

This is not to stop Russia from starting anything, this is an attempt to get them to stay out of anything Kiev might start... so it is obviously doomed to failure... Russia didn't ignore South Ossetia or Abkhazia, and they didn't ignore the Crimea either... and they wont ignore the Donbass region even though they accept it is part of the Ukraine.

What they should never do is kill ukrainians or do a revenge war. Propagandists will turn it into a massacre/genocid and ukrainian will hate them forever.

This is Ukraine vs Ukraine, what the Ukrainians in the Donbass and other regions will do is up to them, but the fact that many want Russian citizenship suggests the hate for Kiev is very strong.

The problem of course is that these people see themselves as Ukrainians and even with Russian passports it is very unlikely they want to actually become Russian... they will most likely want to keep speaking Russian and be an autonomous Ukrainian republic separate from Kiev and with open border trading with Russia.

The mentality of thinking people just want to be like you... America just needs to go in and kick Saddams army and Iraq will just become another America is deluded... the majority Shia meant they had more in common with Iran than with the US and no interest in becoming either.

Using force wont change anything, which is why when Russia took control in Crimea... handed to them by the Crimeans themselves which is why no shots were fired, they didn't start making changes and started to run the place, they held a referendum and let the people decide... and unlike a US referendum where you pick freedom or you go to jail or get shot, the Crimean referendum was free and fair and they made their choices and Russia respected those choices.

Any conflict in the Ukraine will be the same if Russia needs to get involved it will likely be minimalist and mostly supporting the Ukrainians in the Donbass and any other region that is interested in Russian Peace Keepers, while they decide what they want to do without Kiev or Washingtons influence... they will likely chose autonomy from Kiev and Russia will most likely respect that decision and help them to achieve that... and then leave.

Russia wants to avoid war. The U.S is pushing war to extract strategic concessions.

If Russia wants to avoid it, Washington will want something in return. If Russia wants "legal security guarantees on paper", Washington will want A LOT in return for that.

Don't confuse wanting dialogue with being prepared to make self defeating concessions... Putin is not Yeltsin, and Russia is in a completely different situation than in the 1990s.

Putin is suggesting talks as a solution, but when stupid America has a stupid idea and goes ahead with that stupid idea no matter what Putin says.... like the ABM Treaty, like the INF treaty, like the Open Skies Agreement... Russia accepts Americas choices and takes steps to react... now Russia is introducing S-500 and soon S-550, and Poseidon and Buresvick and now land based Zircon lots of other things not possible when these treaties and agreements were in effect.

Look at the map of the Middle East.... the US has lost face and territory with Egypt and Iraq and Iran and Syria now looking to Russia rather more favourably... even Turkey is buying Russian military equipment at the cost of not getting F-35s...

You keep hinting at the west being master chess players, but I am not really seeing it.

Russia won't get shit for free. If Russia doesn't cave somewhere, then all Washington has to do is let the dogs of war unleashed or continue its anti-Russian project there, at its current pace or accelerate it. They set the clock. Ukraine is expendable.

The more the US does the worse its position becomes, Biden is already very unpopular and he needs a win or he is screwed and the orange man will get back in...

As you say, the Ukraine is irrelevant, the US does not care about them at all, the issue is Russia and they have to get that sorted before Kiev collapses or a popular uprising in the Ukraine leads to a government that wants good relations with Russia as well as the EU and US gets voted in.

Ironically the promises of the anti NSII groups have failed to come true... no freedom gas has come to Europes rescue... they got caught trying to get super cheap gas from Russia but didn't realise Russia does not need to sell at very low prices and without long term contracts the instability is always going to push prices up and not down like they hoped.

Germany can take as much time as they like to sign off on NSII, Russia can simply divert the gas to other customers... and likely for a better price.

A Russian oligarch/banker cares significantly more about being disconnected from the Swift and losing billions than say witnessing a slaughter of the Donbas or other Russian people abroad.

And they didn't want to have to trade in currencies other than the US dollar either, but when the US started using it as a weapon they actually did what they had been talking about for decades and dropped the US dollar.

Now it is no big deal.

Right now SWIFT is easy and convenient, but when Russia is banned from it then Russia and all the countries that trade with Russia will have to find an alternative... which is great because the Russian alternative will be Russian controlled and therefore not used to generate revenue for the west, and not used to impose sanctions or economic harm on other countries like SWIFT can and is.

This will make the new Russian system viable and in many cases necessary and other BRICS countries can sign up to it and actually start using it... hopefully it wont be too complex or expensive and so Russia will be even less dependent on the west and other countries will be better able to trade with Russia without the US/West getting a cut of the transactions.

Throw under the bus roulette:

Cuba
Venezuela etc..
Latin America as a whole.
Any "ally" really.
Extend gas transit in Ukraine.

Grand prize: Ditch China.

Putin's choice to make.

But why? What cards does the US even hold?

Russia will continue to transit gas through the Ukraine because they still make money doing that but there is no reason at all for them to do any of those other things... with sanctions to date Russian trade and cooperation with the US is at an all time low and its future prospects are pretty poor, so there is nothing at all worth trading.... even Russian trade with Venezuela or Cuba will be better than with the US so why even consider giving that up?

Trade with China is booming... Russia can't send them enough coal and gas and resources... they are likely making a good profit while helping a neighbour grow and develop... why jeopardise that because western media are stirring up BS lies about a fictional Russia invasion of a region of the Ukraine the west claims they already occupy?

It is Putin mentioning red lines, not the US.

Too easy. Now that the jokes are over. There is this Maduro guy sitting on the world's largest untapped oil reserves. Also, we very much like the Lithium in Bolivia. But if we really want to get serious, why don't we start talking about your relationship with China and Iran.

To which Putin would say we know you are evil that do this sort of thing and your interests are as transparent as your propaganda... so **** off.

Let Kiev invade and we will annihilate them.... and enjoy the process.